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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A review of tidal energy—Resource, feedbacks, and environmental interactions

The ocean contains a variety of renewable energy resources, little of which has been exploited. Here, we review both tidal range and tidal stream energy, with a focus on the resource, feedbacks, and environmental interactions. The review covers a wide range of timescales of relevance to tidal energy, from fortnightly (spring-neap) and semi-diurnal variability, down to array, and device-scale turbulence. When simulating the regional tidal energy resource, and to assess environmental impacts, it is necessary to account for feedbacks between the tidal array and the resource itself. We critically review various methods for simulating energy extraction, from insights gained through theoretical studies of “tidal fences” in idealized channels, to realistic three-dimensional model studies with complex geometry and arrays of turbines represented by momentum sinks and additional turbulence due to the presence of rotors and support structures. We discuss how variability can be reduced by developing multiple (aggregated) sites with a consideration of the enhanced phase diversity offered by exploiting less energetic tidal currents. This leads to future research questions that have not yet been explored in depth at first-generation tidal sites in relatively sheltered channels (e.g., the interaction of waves with currents). Such enhanced understanding of real sea conditions, including the effects of wind and waves, leads to our other identified primary future research direction—reduced uncertainties in turbulence predictions, including the development of realistic models that simulate the interaction between ambient turbulence and the turbulence resulting from multiple wakes, and changes to system-wide hydrodynamics, water quality, and sedimentation.

Environmental impacts↗

MSSM at future Higgs factories *

Abstract In this work, we study the implications of Higgs precision measurements at future Higgs factories for the MSSM parameter space, focusing on the dominant stop sector contributions. We perform a multi-variable fit to both the signal strength for various Higgs decay channels at Higgs factories and the Higgs mass. The χ 2 fit results show sensitivity to m A , tan β , stop mass parameter m SUSY , and the stop left-right mixing parameter Xt. We also study the impact of the Higgs mass prediction on the MSSM and compare the sensitivities of different Higgs factories.

Physics↗

Load Matching Potential of Urban Renewables during Extreme Heat in New York City

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on the matter by assessing the feasibility of using offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems to meet electricity demand during a period of thermal stress in New York City—August 2019. A unified modelling framework, based on the Urbanized Weather Research and Forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load miss-match, ranging from 3 to 5 GW, between the demand and the composite renewable generation outcome. This study provides a transferable framework for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban regions and highlights the need for additional strategies to support grid resilience during extreme heat events, while clarifying the role of local resources in fully managing NYC’s load.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flowability of Crumbler Rotary Shear Size-Reduced Granular Biomass: An Experiment-Informed Modeling Study on the Angle of Repose

Biomass has potential as a carbon-neutral alternative to petroleum for chemical and energy products. However, complete replacement of fossil fuel is contingent upon efficient processes to eliminate undesirable characteristics of biomass, e.g., low bulk density, variability, and storage-induced quality problems. Mechanical size reduction via comminution is a processing operation to engineer favorable biomass flowability in handling. Crumbler rotary shear mill has been empirically demonstrated to produce more uniformly shaped particles with higher flowability than hammermilled biomass. This study combines modeling and experimentation to unveil fundamental understandings of the relation between granular particle characteristics and biomass flow behavior, which elucidate underlying mechanisms and guide selection of critical processing parameters. For this purpose, the impact of critical material attributes, including particle size (2–6 mm), particle shape (briquette, chip, clumped-sphere, cube, etc.), and surface roughness, on the angle of repose (AOR) of milled pine chips were investigated using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system is used to produce milled pine particles within the same size range considered in DEM simulations. AOR of different sets of these particles were measured experimentally to benchmark DEM results against experimental data. Specific energy consumption for the comminution of biomass with different particle size and moisture content are measured for technoeconomic analysis. Our results show that the smaller size (2 mm) of pine particle achieves better followability (i.e., smaller AOR) while the energy cost of comminution is significantly higher and bulk density is almost the same as the 6-mm pine particles. For the 2-mm particle size, Crumbles from veneer have better flow properties than Crumbles from chips. Contrarily, no significant difference was observed between the AOR of the two materials for the 6-mm particle size. Furthermore, from DEM simulations, mechanical interlocking between particles was found as a dominant factor in determining AOR of complex-shaped particles such as milled pine, which cannot be accurately captured by using simple particle shapes (e.g., mono-sphere) with a rolling resistance model. Conversely, clumped-sphere model alleviates this limitation without increasing computational cost significantly and can be used for accurate representation of biomass granular particles when simulating free-flow behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cluster Configuration Spaces of Finite Type

For each Dynkin diagram $D$, we define a ''cluster configuration space'' ${\mathcal{M}}_D$ and a partial compactification ${\widetilde {\mathcal{M}}}_D$. For $D = A_{n-3}$, we have ${\mathcal{M}}_{A_{n-3}} = {\mathcal{M}}_{0,n}$, the configuration space of $n$ points on ${\mathbb P}^1$, and the partial compactification ${\widetilde {\mathcal{M}}}_{A_{n-3}}$ was studied in this case by Brown. The space ${\widetilde {\mathcal{M}}}_D$ is a smooth affine algebraic variety with a stratification in bijection with the faces of the Chapoton-Fomin-Zelevinsky generalized associahedron. The regular functions on ${\widetilde {\mathcal{M}}}_D$ are generated by coordinates $u_\gamma$, in bijection with the cluster variables of type $D$, and the relations are described completely in terms of the compatibility degree function of the cluster algebra. As an application, we define and study cluster algebra analogues of tree-level open string amplitudes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probing the γ -Ray Emission Origin of Two Star-forming Galaxies NGC 2403 and NGC 3424 with the Fermi-LAT

Star-forming galaxies (SFGs) are a subclass of γ-ray emitters, and a correlation between their γ-ray luminosity (L γ ) and the total infrared (IR) luminosity (L IR ) has been established based on the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data. NGC 2403 and NGC 3424 have been reported as outliers in the L γ –L IR correlation with light curves showing significant variability, which contrasts with the temporally stable γ-ray emission in other SFGs, originating primarily from cosmic rays interacting with interstellar medium. In this study, we reanalyze the γ-ray emission in the directions of NGC 2403 and NGC 3424 using more than 16.5 yr Fermi-LAT data. NGC 3424 is found to be spatially coincident with the detected γ-ray source, while NGC 2403 is significantly offset from the nearest γ-ray source, suggesting an implausible association. We confirm the previously reported variability of both γ-ray sources and the significant deviation from the L γ –L IR correlation when assuming an association of both γ-ray sources with the two galaxies. Our findings lend further support to the interpretation that their γ-ray emission is driven primarily by alternative radiative processes—rather than by star formation activity—such as the ejecta of the Type IIP supernova SN 2004dj in NGC 2403 interacting with a surrounding high-density shell and an obscured active galactic nucleus in NGC 3424.

Liu, Linjie [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ku↗

Effects of different vegetation drag parameterizations on the tidal propagation in coastal marshlands

Vegetation drag is a fundamental quantity directly affecting results for both long- and short-term coastal marsh and geomorphological studies. The vegetation drag in coastal marshland has been modeled by various two-dimensional (2D) and threedimensional (3D) numerical parameterizations. 2D parameterizations treat coastal marshes as bottom roughness elements, while 3D parameterizations resolve the vertically-variable vegetation drag through the water column. However, differences in tidal propagation arising from different drag parameterizations within a single model are largely unknown, and clear guidance on parameterization selection is still missing. In this study, we implemented four vegetation drag parameterizations into the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-O), which include 1) a 2D parameterization using land-cover type-determined Manning’s n (2DLM); 2) a 2D parameterization using vegetation-determined Manning’s n (2DVM); 3) a 3D parameterization for stiff vegetation (3DSV); and 4) a 3D parameterization for flexible vegetation (3DFV). Estimates of the flow resistance effects from these parameterizations were compared using a series of idealized tidal propagation simulations. Given the same tidal condition, flooding depth and flooding distance are the largest in the 2DLM simulations and the smallest in the 3DSV simulations. 2DVM results are the closest to the 2DLM results. 3DFV results are the closest to the average of 2DVM, 3DSV, and 3DFV results. 2DVM and 3DSV results are the least and most sensitive to the vegetation aboveground biomass, respectively. Based on the input data requirement and computational efficiency of each parameterization, a comparison summary is provided to help inform parameterization selection for specific applications. Here, the effects of these parameterizations on coastal geomorphology are further discussed, and the results demonstrate that estimates of the long-term evolution of coastal marshes and coastal morphology depend upon the selection of the vegetation drag parameterization

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen fixation rates in the Guinea Dome and the equatorial upwelling regions in the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Biological nitrogen fixation is a key process balancing the loss of combined nitrogen in the marine nitrogen cycle. Its relevance in upwelling or high nutrient regions is still unclear, with the few available studies in these regions of the ocean reporting rates that vary widely from below detection limit to > 100 nmol N L −1 d −1 . In the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, two open ocean upwelling systems are active in boreal summer. One is the seasonal equatorial upwelling, where the residual phosphorus associated with aged upwelled waters is suggested to enhance nitrogen fixation in this season. The other is the Guinea Dome, a thermal upwelling dome. We conducted two surveys along 23° W across the Guinea Dome and the Equator from 15° N to 5° S in September 2015 and August–September 2016 with high latitudinal resolution (20–60 nm between stations). The abundance of Trichodesmium colonies was characterized by an Underwater Vision Profiler 5 and the total biological nitrogen fixation in the euphotic layer was measured using the 15 N 2 technique. The highest abundances of Trichodesmium colonies were found in the area of the Guinea Dome (9°–15° N) with a maximum of 3 colonies L −1 near the surface. By contrast, colonies were almost absent in the Equatorial band between 2° N and 5° S. The highest nitrogen fixation rate was measured at the northern edge of the Guinea Dome in 2016 (ca. 31 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). In this region, where diazotrophs thrived on a sufficient supply of both phosphorus and iron, a patchy distribution was unveiled by our increased spatial resolution scheme. In the Equatorial band, rates were considerably lower, ranging from below detection limit to ca. 4 nmol N L −1 d −1 , with a clear difference in magnitude between 2015 (rates close to zero) and 2016 (average rates around 2 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). This difference seemed triggered by a contrasting supply of phosphorus between years. Our study stresses the importance of surveys with sampling at fine-scale spatial resolution, and shows unexpected high variability in the rates of nitrogen fixation in the Guinea Dome, a region where diazotrophy is a significant process supplying new nitrogen into the euphotic layer.

Fernández-Carrera, Ana (ORCID:0000000183470996)↗

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulation insights into wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay for hydrogen geo-storage

Hydrogen geo-storage is attracting substantial interdisciplinary interest as a cost-effective and sustainable option for medium- and long-term storage. Hydrogen can be stored underground in diverse formations, including aquifers, salt caverns, and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The wetting dynamics of the hydrogen-brine-rock system are critical for assessing both structural and residual storage capacities, and ensuring containment safety. Through molecular dynamics simulations, we explore how varying concentrations of cushion gases (CO 2 or CH 4 ) influence the wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay systems under geological conditions (15 MPa and 333 K). We employed models of talc and the hydroxylated basal face of kaolinite (kaoOH) as clay substrates. Our findings reveal that the effect of cushion gases on hydrogen-brine-clay wettability is strongly dependent on the clay-brine interactions. Notably, CO 2 and CH 4 reduce the water wettability of talc in hydrogen-brine-talc systems, while exerting no influence on the wettability of hydrogen-brine-kaoOH systems. Detailed analysis of free energy of cavity formation near clay surfaces, clay-brine interfacial tensions, and the Willard-Chandler surface for gas-brine interfaces elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying wettability changes. Our simulations identify empirical correlations between wetting properties and the average free energy required to perturb a flat interface when clay-brine interactions are less dominant. Here, our thorough thermodynamic analysis of rock-fluid and fluid-fluid interactions, aligning with key experimental observations, underscores the utility of simulated interfacial properties in refining contact angle measurements and predicting experimentally relevant properties. These insights significantly enhance the assessment of gas geo-storage potential. Prospectively, the approaches and findings obtained from this study could form a basis for more advanced multiscale simulations that consider a range of geological and operational variables, potentially guiding the development and improvement of geo-storage systems in general, with a particular focus on hydrogen storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗