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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

Archi: Agentic Operations at the CMS Experiment

We present Archi, an open-source, end-to-end framework for scientific collaborations that combines the systematic ingestion and organization of heterogeneous data sources with the deployment of configurable, private, and extensible agents that retrieve and reason over them. An instance of Archi has been deployed for the Computing Operations team of the CMS experiment at CERN's LHC since February 2026 as a support agent for technical operators, offering retrieval and analysis capabilities by combining documentation, historical data, and live monitoring systems. We evaluate the system on operator feedback and a question set collected from production usage, graded by human and automated panels. The system proves effective at operational tasks, resolving real-world queries posed by CMS operators. We also observe that locally-hosted, open-weight models perform competitively, enabling fully private management of sensitive data.

Lugato, Pietro [MIT; CERN]↗

Evaluation of selected chemical processes for production of low-cost silicon

Plant construction costs and manufacturing costs were estimated for the production of solar-grade silicon by the reduction of silicon tetrachloride in a fluidized bed of seed particles, and several modifications of the iodide process using either thermal decomposition on heated filaments (rods) or hydrogen reduction in a fluidized bed of seed particles. Energy consumption data for the zinc reduction process and each of the iodide process options are given and all appear to be acceptable from the standpoint of energy pay back. Information is presented on the experimental zinc reduction of SiCl4 and electrolytic recovery of zinc from ZnCl2. All of the experimental work performed thus far has supported the initial assumption as to technical feasibility of producing semiconductor silicon by the zinc reduction or iodide processes proposed. The results of a more thorough thermodynamic evaluation of the iodination of silicon oxide/carbon mixtures are presented which explain apparent inconsistencies in an earlier cursory examination of the system.

Blocher, J. M., Jr.↗

S&MA Internship to Support Orion and the European Service Module

As a University Space Research Association (USRA) intern for NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) during the summer 2016 work term, I worked on three main projects for the Space Exploration Division (NC) of the Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate. I worked on all three projects concurrently. One of the projects involved facilitating the status and closure of technical actions that were created during European Service Module (ESM) safety reviews by the MPCV Safety & Engineering Review Panel (MSERP). The two main duties included accurately collecting and summarizing qualitative data, and communicating that information to the European Space Agency (ESA) and Airbus (ESA's prime contractor) in a clear, succinct and precise manner. This project also required that I create a report on the challenges and opportunities of international S&MA. With its heavy emphasis on soft skills, this project taught me how to communicate better, by showing me how to present and share information in an easy-to-read and understandable format, and by showing me how to cooperate with and culturally respect international partners on a technical project. The second project involved working with the Orion Thermal Protection System (TPS) Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (PFMEA) Working Group to create the first full version of the Orion TPS PFMEA. The Orion TPS PFMEA Working Group met twice a week to analyze the Avcoat block installation process for failure modes, the failure modes effects, and how such failure modes could be controlled. I was in charge of implementing changes that were discussed in meeting, but were not implemented real time. Another major task included creating a significant portion of the content alongside another team member outside the two weekly meetings. This project caused me to become knowledgeable about TPS, heatshields, space-rated manufacturing, and non-destructive evaluation (NDE). The project also helped me to become better at working with a small team and helped improved my technical communication skills. My main duty for the third project was creating a Safety Verification Tracking Log (SVTL) for the Orbital Maneuvering System Engine (OMS-E), and contacting subject matter experts to close Hazard Report (HR) control verifications. This project also required me to support other OMS-E safety process tasks, like monitoring OMS-E vibration testing for Quality Assurance (QA) purposes. This project helped me become even more proficient in Excel. Throughout the project, I gained knowledge about the OMS-E system and improved my understanding of pressure systems and propellant systems. In terms of education goals, this work term has affirmed my desire to take a few more space-related courses, like orbital mechanics, so that I can have a better understanding of human spaceflight and the industry surrounding it. However, the work term did not persuade me to pursue a master's degree. In terms of career goals, this work term has helped me clarify the direction I would like to head in the future. The perspective of three summer terms working for NASA in S&MA has allowed me to observe that most S&MA employees joined S&MA after working in other NASA directorates, such as Engineering or Flight Operations. It is my belief that it would be advantageous for both NASA and I for me to broaden my knowledge base and technical skill set by completing hands-on technical work on human spaceflight projects, and for me to integrate my safety experience directly into technical work in other directorates. The other significant advantage to this proposed situation is that if I were to eventually return to S&MA, I would be returning with a substantial set of hands-on technical experience and knowledge, which would be a significant resource for S&MA tasks and projects.

Hutcheson, Connor↗

Benchmarking Gas Path Diagnostic Methods: A Public Approach

Recent technology reviews have identified the need for objective assessments of engine health management (EHM) technology. The need is two-fold: technology developers require relevant data and problems to design and validate new algorithms and techniques while engine system integrators and operators need practical tools to direct development and then evaluate the effectiveness of proposed solutions. This paper presents a publicly available gas path diagnostic benchmark problem that has been developed by the Propulsion and Power Systems Panel of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) to help address these needs. The problem is coded in MATLAB (The MathWorks, Inc.) and coupled with a non-linear turbofan engine simulation to produce "snap-shot" measurements, with relevant noise levels, as if collected from a fleet of engines over their lifetime of use. Each engine within the fleet will experience unique operating and deterioration profiles, and may encounter randomly occurring relevant gas path faults including sensor, actuator and component faults. The challenge to the EHM community is to develop gas path diagnostic algorithms to reliably perform fault detection and isolation. An example solution to the benchmark problem is provided along with associated evaluation metrics. A plan is presented to disseminate this benchmark problem to the engine health management technical community and invite technology solutions.

Simon, Donald L.↗

Common Cause Failure Evaluation of High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems but also pose different engineering and technical challenges, such as potential threats due to common cause failures (CCFs). This paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) developed by Idaho National Laboratory for dealing with potential software CCFs in DI&C systems of NPPs. The methodology development of PRADIC on the quantitative evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems in NPPs is illustrated in this paper. In PRADIC, qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analysis are successively implemented to obtain quantitative risk information, compare with respective risk evaluation acceptance criteria, and provide suggestions for risk reduction and design optimization. A comprehensive case study was also performed and documented in this paper. Results show that PRADIC can effectively identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their failure probabilities, and evaluate their impacts to system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Overview of space propulsion systems for identifying nondestructive evaluation and health monitoring opportunities

The next generation of space propulsion systems will be designed to incorporate advanced health monitoring and nondestructive inspection capabilities. As a guide to help the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community impact the development of these space propulsion systems, several questions should be addressed. An overview of background and current information on space propulsion systems at both the programmatic and technical levels is provided. A framework is given that will assist the NDE community in addressing key questions raised during the 2 to 5 April 1990 meeting of the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) Nondestructive Evaluation Subcommittee (NDES).

Generazio, Edward R.↗

Operator Insights and Usability Evaluation of Machine Learning Assistance for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

Introducing machine learning (ML) assistance into any established process comes with adoption barriers, including entrenched procedures, technological and human readiness levels, human-machine trust, and work culture resistance to change. These barriers are even greater in critical operations such as operating a national or regional power grid, in which both regulatory frameworks and the importance of maintaining reliability levels causes additional resistance to the adoption of new computational support. Developers of future systems and job aides must consider not only technical aspects, but also whether new systems are usable by power system operators. This work presents the methodology and results of a study to evaluate the usability and readiness of a prototype recommender system for power grid contingency analysis. We explore operator cognitive load and evaluate operator performance when solving a collection of scenarios both with and without recommender assistance. We also examine operator trust in the system. We report insights gained on the readiness of the system using a collection of evaluation techniques.

Human-Machine Teaming, Power Systems, usability ev↗

Technical Requirements for Application of Operator Support Technology across Multiple Plant Systems

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) are jointly developing and evaluating operator aids to: (i) facilitate more timely response to plant faults and grid disturbances; (ii) achieve better management of plant upsets and improved operator performance; and (iii) ultimately improve nuclear plant safety, production, and cost management. The overall objective of the collaborative effort in this third and final year of the project was to conduct human performance tests using nuclear plant operators in the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) control room at INL to assess the value of a computerized operator support system (COSS) as an aid to the operator. This report describes the work performed by ANL. A companion report describes the work performed by INL and the results of the human performance tests.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Performance analysis and technical assessment of coherent lidar systems for airborne wind shear detection

Detailed computer simulations of the lidar wind-measuring process have been conducted to evaluate the use of pulsed coherent lidar for airborne windshear monitoring. NASA data fields for an actual microburst event were used in the simulation. Both CO2 and Ho:YAG laser lidar systems performed well in the microburst test case, and were able to measure wind shear in the severe weather of this wet microburst to ranges in excess of 1.4 km. The consequent warning time gained was about 15 sec.

Huffaker, R. Milton↗

Evaluation of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel during Drying and Dry Storage

The DOE SNF Working Group ASNF Subgroup and the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board have identified knowledge gaps regarding the management of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF).[1, 2] The objectives of this research are to observe, sample and analyze the nature of aluminum surface corrosion and corrosion layer chemistry relevant to the ASNF performance over the duration of the dry storage segment of the fuel life cycle. The primary goal is to build an understanding of ASNF behavior, from reactor service and wet storage through drying and dry storage, with parallel testing of surrogate materials. The premise is that residual water affiliated with the aluminum oxide from corrosion during reactor service and wet storage, continues to influence ASNF performance during dry storage, and that even after successful drying the surface conditions of ASNF have yet to be satisfactorily characterized. The initial scope collected and analyzed specimens from irradiated non-fuel components of aluminum-clad Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) fuel elements that are routinely removed at the end of reactor service life. Techniques have been developed for remote material sampling from ATR elements from vented dry storage at the Irradiated Fuel Storage Facility (IFSF). These techniques involve 1) nipping off a small corner of the aluminum near where the end box had been removed and 2) scraping the exterior (non-fueled) plate surface to collect an oxide sample. This second effort targets ATR elements expected to have seen the longest residence in storage, both in the CPP-603 pool (with poor water quality) and in dry storage at IFSF, within the fuel handling scheduled to consolidate ATR at IFSF and receive the remaining inventory at CPP-666. Follow on work has been proposed to nip corners and collect scrapings immediately following ATR fuel drying, before placement in dry storage. Sample analysis will use multiple techniques to understand the chemical composition and morphology of the surface oxides. A simultaneous effort is progressing to develop surrogate materials to enable rigorous controlled experiments. Consistently produced, these surrogate materials can then be used to demonstrate limitations inherent to remote sampling and to validate performance models under relevant constraints. The combined efforts will substantiate ASNF performance and fuel management decisions regarding drying and packaging over a more complete range of life cycle conditions. [1] DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel Working Group, Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel: Technical Considerations and Challenges for Extended (>50 Years) Dry Storage, DOE/ID RPT#: 1575, prepared by Aluminum-Clad SNF Sub Working Group, June 2017. [2] U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Management and Disposal of U.S. Department of Energy Spent Nuclear Fuel, A Report to the United States Congress and the Secretary of Energy, December 2017, p. 143.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS

The Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC) was formed to address pressing challenges in the commercialization of microalgae as a source of biofuel. The “Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS” project formally addressed two US Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) goals: (1) Model the sustainable supply of 1 million metric tonnes ash free dry weight (AFDW) cultivated algal biomass and (2) Demonstrate valuable co-products produced along with biofuel intermediates to increase value of algal biomass by 30%. To achieve these goals, the project demonstrated and validated high-value co-products to drive down the cost of biofuel by increasing the value of algae “co-products” towards increasing the selling price of total algae biomass as one of the key drivers of economics and adoption. This was accomplished through five core, interdependent tasks including: (1) strain selection to identify and deliver strains for mass culture, (2) mass culture using a hybrid cultivation system and following key operating parameters for downstream applications to provide algae feedstock, (3) recovery and conversion to evaluate two alternative methods to separate dry algae biomass into oil and residuals for downstream testing, (4) product assessment to determine biofuel, aquafeed or poultry feed product efficacy using algae biomass fractions as well as to provide critical performance data for valuation and (5) commercialization to use technoeconomic and life cycle assessments (TEA/LCA) as iterative design and assessment tools including consideration of target markets, competitors, and distribution channels to guide product assessment, development and valuation. A total of 46 peer-review publications, many open-access, provide detail of much of the work carried out and the results of the tasks. Additional reports and presentations provide other technical and public engagement material. At a high level, using a variety of approaches, more than 1000 marine microalgae strains were evaluated to ultimately identify the seven winners that were down-selected to be grown in mass culture. Strain selection demonstrated that there were no ‘super strains’ and that each candidate had strengths and limitations for specific products, growth conditions or operational considerations. Mass culture growth of these seven strains at >5000 L / 29 m 2 scale found that four them were suitable for product assessment. More than 250 kg of biomass was produced across hundreds of pond runs along with thousands of cultivation entries on the growth and biomass characteristics as well as environmental parameters. In the process, dozens of standard operating procedures were generated as was custom software to process and analyze cultivation data. Recovery and conversion of algae biomass demonstrated that a hexane solvent based extraction protocol was most effective at recovering oil (biocrude) from algae and four strains were processed to produce oil and lipid extracted algae (residuals) for downstream testing. Membrane-based oil separation was less successful, but may still be applicable to other commercial applications in the future. Product testing demonstrated that algae biocrude is of high quality and hydrotreating generated numerous fractions of high quality composition for fuel and lubricate based applications. Aquafeed studies performed at a variety of scales showed that both whole and defatted (lipid extracted algae) microalgae were suitable as a feed ingredient, but that the specifics of the fed animal and biochemical composition of the algae are critical factors when determining formulation. Similarly, poultry studies on whole and defatted microalgae generally showed positive outcomes on animal growth and health, with some microalgae providing enhanced nutritional composition of the animal product. Economic and life cycle assessments covered a wide range of possible commercialization and sustainability scenarios. Replacement value, improved product value added, consumer values marketing added valuation and improved animal health were considered as alternatives for microalgae valuation. Using the open pond system, algae productivity was identified as the key driver of commercialization economics, but combination of co-products (e.g. animal feed) with biofuel production substantially increased the total selling price of algae. Modeled microalgae selling price exceeded $\$$1500/tonne and could generate competitive biofuel selling prices below $\$$5 gallon gas equivalents using realistic algal productivities. Short (process scale) and longer (decadal trends) sustainability assessments show that marine microalgae can enhance the sustainability of energy production and lead to other realized benefits in water, fertilizer and land use for other sectors (e.g. agriculture). This project successfully demonstrated all of the components of an end-to-end process from mass microalgae cultivation and dewatering, to recovery and conversion of algae biomass components, to final product demonstration and process valuation; the combined results provide a framework for future commercialization of algae based biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

X-ray evaluation of crystals for stellar spectrometers

The report consists of three parts. The first part is an analysis of the principles involved in X-ray crystal evaluation and how they are applied to a number of crystals. The principles of crystal evaluation analysis as they apply to the special problems of X-ray astronomy are presented. A number of crystals were evaluated, and the energy dependence of the diffraction properties of (002) PET, (111) Ge, (101) ADP, (001) KAP, and (001) RAP are reported. The second part is a compilation of the diffraction properties of a number of crystals as reported by other authors. In the third part some technical details of a triple crystal spectrometer built by the author at Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn are given. This spectrometer seems to be a most appropriate instrument for evaluation of crystal properties. (Modified author abstract)

Alexandropolos, N. G.↗

Do-It-Yourself: A Special Library's Approach to Creating Dynamic Web Pages Using Commercial Off-The-Shelf Applications

Many librarians may feel that dynamic Web pages are out of their reach, financially and technically. Yet we are reminded in library and Web design literature that static home pages are a thing of the past. This paper describes how librarians at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) library developed a database-driven, dynamic intranet site using commercial off-the-shelf applications. Administrative issues include surveying a library users group for interest and needs evaluation; outlining metadata elements; and, committing resources from managing time to populate the database and training in Microsoft FrontPage and Web-to-database design. Technical issues covered include Microsoft Access database fundamentals, lessons learned in the Web-to-database process (including setting up Database Source Names (DSNs), redesigning queries to accommodate the Web interface, and understanding Access 97 query language vs. Standard Query Language (SQL)). This paper also offers tips on editing Active Server Pages (ASP) scripting to create desired results. A how-to annotated resource list closes out the paper.

Relational databases↗

NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario

As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.

climate intervention↗