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Simulating the Formation of Lunar Floor-Fracture Craters Using Elastoviscoplastic Relaxation

Lunar floor-fracture craters formed during the height of mare basalt emplacement. Due to a general temporal and spatial relation with the maria, these craters, numbering some 200, may be diagnostic of the thermal structure of the crust during this time. As the name suggests, these craters exhibit brittle failure, generally limited to the central floor region. That, and a shallower depth than fresh lunar craters, has led to two main theories as to their formation: laccolith emplacement under the crater and viscous relaxation. The implications of each model for the state of the Moon's crust during this time are quite different, so the viability of each model must be checked. Laccolith emplacement has been treated elsewhere. However, previous attempts to study the relaxation of the craters have assumed only a uniform, Newtonian viscous response of the near surface to the topographic driving forces, and simply postulated that the fractures resulted from tensile stresses associated with floor uplift. Here, we use a more sophisticated rheological model that includes not only non-Newtonian viscous behavior (i.e., the viscosity is stress-dependent), but also incorporates elastic behavior and a plastic component to the rheology to directly simulate the formation of the floor fractures. The results of our simulations show that while elastoviscoplastic relaxation is potentially viable for larger floor-fracture craters, it is not viable for craters with diameters < or = 60 km, the size of the majority of floor-fracture craters. We employ the finite element method, a numerical technique well suited for boundary-value problems, via the commercially available MARC software package. To test the viability of topographic relaxation, our goal is to prepare the simulations as to maximize the amount of relaxation. We take advantage of the natural axisymmetry of craters, simulating one radial plane. Initial shapes are based on data for fresh craters from Pike. To simplify implementation, a fourth order polynomial is used for the basin, while a third order inverse function is used for the rim. This form closely approximates the long-wavelength behavior of complex craters, while ignoring higher-frequency topography, save the rim. This approximation is appropriate because crater relaxation is strongly controlled by long-wavelength topography. Loading is accomplished assuming a uniform gravity field (1.62 m/s-square) and a uniform density of 2900 kg/cubic m. The initial stress state is set to be hydrostatic, with an additional pressure term to account for any overlying topography. This additional pressure term is tapered exponentially with depth. While the simulations quickly settle on a preferred stress state, and while the final solution is fairly insensitive to the choice of the e-folding depth of the taper, selecting an e-folding depth close to the diameter of the crater sets the initial stress state near the preferred state. We assume a diuranally averaged surface temperature of -20 C, and allow temperature to increase with depth at a rate of 50 K//km. Assuming a thermal conductivity of 2 W/in/K, this gradient translates to a heat flow of 100mW/square m, an extremely high value for the Moon. Temperature, of course, will not increase without bound. To maximize relaxation, we allow our temperature profile to increase linearly until it reaches the solidus (assumed to be 1200C) at a depth of 24.4 km, at which point it is kept constant. The presence of melt will drop the bulk viscosity; however, we have no rheological control for partial melts. Therefore, we make no attempt to simulate this situation. Elastoviscoplastic rheological model. In general, geologic materials can behave in three main ways: elastically, viscously (via solid-state creep), and brittly (plasticity is a continuum approach to simulate this phenomenon). We combine these three deformation mechanisms in an extended Maxwell solid, where the total strain can be broken down into a simple summation of the elastic, creep, and plastic strains. In relaxation phenomena in general, the system takes advantage of any means possible to eliminate deviatoric stresses by relaxing away the topography. Previous analyses have only modeled the viscous response. Comparatively, the elastic response in our model can augment the relaxation, to a point. This effect decreases as the elastic response becomes stiffer; indeed, in the limit of infinite elastic Young's modulus (and with no plasticity), the solution converges on the purely viscous solution. Igneous rocks common to the lunar near-surface have Young's modulii in the range of 10-100 GPa. To maximize relaxation, we use a Young's modulus of 10 GPa. (There is negligible sensitivity to the other elastic modulus, the Poisson's ratio; we use 0.25.) For the viscous response, we use a flow law for steady-state creep in thoroughly dried Columbia diabase, because the high plagioclase (about 70 vol%) and orthopyroxene (about 17 vol%) content is similar to the composition of the lunar highland crust as described by remote sensing and sample studies: noritic anorthosite. This flow law is highly non-Newtonian, i.e., the viscosity is highly stress dependent. That, and the variability with temperature, stands in strong contrast to previous examinations of lunar floor-fracture crater relaxation. To model discrete, brittle faulting, we assume "Byerlee's rule," a standard geodynamical technique. We implement this "rule" with an-angle of internal friction of about 40 deg, and a higher-than-normal cohesion of about 3.2 MPa (to approximate the breaking of unfractured rock). The actual behavior of geologic materials is more complex than in our rheological model, so the uncertainties in the plasticity do not represent the state-of-the-art error. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dombard, A. J.↗

Assessment of Proper Bonding Methods and Mechanical Characterization FPGA CQFPs

This presentation discusses fractured leads on field-programmable gate array (FPGA) during flight vibration. Actions taken to determine root cause and resolution of the failure include finite element analysis (FEA) and vibration testing and scanning electron microscopy (with X-ray microanalysis) and energy dispersive spectrometry (SEM/EDS) failure assessment. Bonding methods for surface mount parts is assessed, including critical analysis and assessment of random fatigue damage. Regarding ceramic quad flat pack (CQFP) lead fracture, after disassembling the attitude control electronics (ACE) configuration, photographs showed six leads cracked on FPGA RTSX72SU-1 CQ208B package located on the RWIC card. An identical package (FPGA RTSX32SU-1 CQ208B) mounted on the RWIC did not results in cracked pins due to vibration. FPGA lead failure theories include workmanship issues in the lead-forming, material defect in the leads of the FPGA packages, and the insecure mounting of the board in the card guides, among other theories. Studies were conducted using simple calculations to determine the response and fatigue life of the package. Shorter packages exhibited more response when loaded by out-of-plane displacement of PCB while taller packages exhibit more response when loaded by in-plane acceleration of PCB. Additionally, under-fill did not contribute to reducing stress in leads due to out-of-plane PCB loading or from component twisting, as much as corner bonding. The combination of corner bond and under-fill is best to address mechanical and thermal S/C environment. Test results of bonded parts showed reduced (dampened) amplitude and slightly shifted peaks at the un-bonded natural frequency and an additional response at the bonded frequency. Stress due to PCBB out-of-plane loading was decreased on in the corners when only a corner bond was used. Future work may address CQFP fatigue assessment, including the investigation of discrepancy in predicted fatigue damage, as well as comparing fatigue life and fatigue damage cycle ration computed using FEA and Miner's rule to results from a fatigue assessment software program.

Davis, Milton C.↗

Enhancement of EM Pump Performance through Modeling and Testing

Liquid sodium has seen development as a nuclear reactor coolant in the United States for over 50 years. While sodium has many desirable characteristics as a heat transfer fluid, its reactivity poses numerous engineering challenges for even the most basic plant components like pumps. Despite the challenges, mechanical pumps have seen success in sodium service albeit at the expense of simplicity and flexibility. In fact, significant failures of these pumps have been recorded which can be attributed to their complexity. Notwithstanding the complexity, mechanical pumps are still widely proposed for the main circuit pump of sodium cooled reactors. However, an alternative to mechanical pumps are Electromagnetic Induction Pumps (EMIPs) which use the principle of the Lorentz Force. EMIPs avoid mechanically moving parts in contact with sodium which simplifies the design by avoiding mechanical wear and seals. Therefore, these pumps are generally safer and more reliable than their mechanical counterparts. That being said, EMIPs suffer from relatively low efficiencies that range from 5% to 45%. Some of the inefficiencies are inherent to the EMIPs pumps; namely, inefficiencies arise in the form of resistive heating losses in the fluid itself. However, other inefficiencies arise from Edge Effects which include Finite Length and Finite Width effects. Due to the significant safety advantages EMIPs have compared to mechanical pumps, there is a strong motivation to integrate these technologies into the design of Generation IV liquid-metal-cooled nuclear power plants. However, EMIPs have low efficiencies partly attributed to Edge Effects. Much of the literature focusing on Edge Effects is dated or simply does not exist in the public domain. More recently, numerical models of EMIPs have shown promising results. However, these models are often custom solvers or use complex software suits which limit their application. This report describes the work completed to understand Edge Effects in two EMIPs designs. These designs are the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) and Permanent Magnet Induction Pump (PMIP) also known as a Moving Magnet Pump (MMP). The methodology developed during this project aim at measuring key performance parameters (pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance) using high temperature liquid-sodium. Baseline experimental measurements were then used to verify the accuracy of numerical models developed in the software suit ANSYS/FLUENT. On the experimental side, instrumentation was developed to characterize the pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance of both the ALIP and PMIP in high-temperature liquid-sodium. Additionally, instrumentation was developed to measure potential output pressure pulsations and the magnetic field distributions. Moreover, a specialized ALIP was constructed to study the impacts magnetic field tapering, also known as coil grading, on the Finite Length Effect. Lastly, experimental performance curves of the PMIP were collected at 300 oC and 600 oC and compared to analytical theory which accounted for Finite Width Effects. These results showed that the Finite Width Effect and non-uniform magnetic field in a PMIP impact the performance. On the numerical side, models were developed using the software suit FLUENT/ANSYS. These methods were initially compared against a simple MHD flow in a Permanent Magnet Electromagnet Flowmeter (PMEMFM). The results were significant in that they showed agreeance between the numerical model and demonstrated that PMEMFM’s could be calibrated numerically. These modeling methods were then applied to a prototypic PMIP. Results showed that this simple model provided reasonably accurate results of the PMIP p-Q performance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SU-F-T-285: Evaluation of a Patient DVH-Based IMRT QA System

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical performance of a patient DVH-based QA system for prostate VMAT QA. Methods: Mobius3D(M3D) is a QA software with an independent beam model and dose engine. The MobiusFX(MFX) add-on predicts patient dose using treatment machine log files. We commissioned the Mobius beam model in two steps. First, the stock beam model was customized using machine commissioning data, then verified against the TPS with 12 simple phantom plans and 7 clinical 3D plans. Secondly, the Dosimetric Leaf Gap(DLG) in the Mobius model was fine-tuned for VMAT treatment based on ion chamber measurements for 6 clinical VMAT plans. Upon successful commissioning, we retrospectively performed IMRT QA for 12 VMAT plans with the Mobius system as well as the ArcCHECK-3DVH system. Selected patient DVH values (PTV D95, D50; Bladder D2cc, Dmean; Rectum D2cc) were compared between TPS, M3D, MFX, and 3DVH. Results: During the first commissioning step, TPS and M3D calculated target Dmean for 3D plans agree within 0.7%±0.7%, with 3D gamma passing rates of 98%±2%. In the second commissioning step, the Mobius DLG was adjusted by 1.2mm from the stock value, reducing the average difference between MFX calculation and ion chamber measurement from 3.2% to 0.1%. In retrospective prostate VMAT QA, 5 of 60 MFX calculated DVH values have a deviation greater than 5% compared to TPS. One large deviation at high dose level was identified as a potential QA failure. This echoes the 3DVH QA result, which identified 2 instances of large DVH deviation on the same structure. For all DVH’s evaluated, M3D and MFX show high level of agreement (0.1%±0.2%), indicating that the observed deviation is likely from beam modelling differences rather than delivery errors. Conclusion: Mobius system provides a viable solution for DVH based VMAT QA, with the capability of separating TPS and delivery errors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Wallops Flight Facility Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative

While the dominant focus on short response missions has appropriately centered on the launch vehicle and spacecraft, often overlooked or afterthought phases of these missions have been launch site operations and the activities of launch range organizations. Throughout the history of organized spaceflight, launch ranges have been the bane of flight programs as the source of expense, schedule delays, and seemingly endless requirements. Launch Ranges provide three basic functions: (1) provide an appropriate geographical location to meet orbital other mission trajectory requirements, (2) provide project services such as processing facilities, launch complexes, tracking and data services, and expendable products, and (3) assure safety and property protection to participating personnel and third-parties. The challenge with which launch site authorities continuously struggle, is the inherent conflict arising from projects whose singular concern is execution of their mission, and the range s need to support numerous simultaneous customers. So, while tasks carried out by a launch range committed to a single mission pale in comparison to efforts of a launch vehicle or spacecraft provider and could normally be carried out in a matter of weeks, major launch sites have dozens of active projects separate sponsoring organizations. Accommodating the numerous tasks associated with each mission, when hardware failures, weather, maintenance requirements, and other factors constantly conspire against the range resource schedulers, make the launch range as significant an impediment to responsive missions as launch vehicles and their cargo. The obvious solution to the launch site challenge was implemented years ago when the Department of Defense simply established dedicated infrastructure and personnel to dedicated missions, namely an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile. This however proves to be prohibitively expensive for all but the most urgent of applications. So the challenge becomes how can a launch site provide acceptably responsive mission services to a particular customer without dedicating extensive resources and while continuing to serve other projects? NASA's Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) is pursuing solutions to exactly this challenge. NASA, in partnership with the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority, has initiated the Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative (R3Ops). R3Ops is a multi-phased effort to incrementally establish and demonstrate increasingly responsive launch operations, with an ultimate goal of providing ELV-class services in a maximum of 7-10 days from initial notification routinely, and shorter schedules possible with committed resources. This target will be pursued within the reality of simultaneous concurrent programs, and ideally, largely independent of specialized flight system configurations. WFF has recently completed Phase 1 of R3Ops, an in-depth collection (through extensive expert interviews) and software modeling of individual steps by various range disciplines. This modeling is now being used to identify existing inefficiencies in current procedures, to identify bottlenecks, and show interdependencies. Existing practices are being tracked to provide a baseline to benchmark against as new procedures are implemented. This paper will describe in detail the philosophies behind WFF's R3Ops, the data collected and modeled in Phase 1, and strategies for meeting responsive launch requirements in a multi-user range environment planned for subsequent phases of this initiative.

Underwood, Bruce E.↗

Use of Semi-Autonomous Tools for ISS Commanding and Monitoring

As the International Space Station (ISS) has moved into a utilization phase, operations have shifted to become more ground-based with fewer mission control personnel monitoring and commanding multiple ISS systems. This shift to fewer people monitoring more systems has prompted use of semi-autonomous console tools in the ISS Mission Control Center (MCC) to help flight controllers command and monitor the ISS. These console tools perform routine operational procedures while keeping the human operator "in the loop" to monitor and intervene when off-nominal events arise. Two such tools, the Pre-positioned Load (PPL) Loader and Automatic Operators Recorder Manager (AutoORM), are used by the ISS Communications RF Onboard Networks Utilization Specialist (CRONUS) flight control position. CRONUS is responsible for simultaneously commanding and monitoring the ISS Command & Data Handling (C&DH) and Communications and Tracking (C&T) systems. PPL Loader is used to uplink small pieces of frequently changed software data tables, called PPLs, to ISS computers to support different ISS operations. In order to uplink a PPL, a data load command must be built that contains multiple user-input fields. Next, a multiple step commanding and verification procedure must be performed to enable an onboard computer for software uplink, uplink the PPL, verify the PPL has incorporated correctly, and disable the computer for software uplink. PPL Loader provides different levels of automation in both building and uplinking these commands. In its manual mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands but allows the flight controller to verify and save the commands for future uplink. In its auto mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands for flight controller verification, but automatically performs the PPL uplink procedure by sending commands and performing verification checks while notifying CRONUS of procedure step completion. If an off-nominal condition occurs during procedure execution, PPL Loader notifies CRONUS through popup messages, allowing CRONUS to examine the situation and choose an option of how PPL loader should proceed with the procedure. The use of PPL Loader to perform frequent, routine PPL uplinks offloads CRONUS to better monitor two ISS systems. It also reduces procedure performance time and decreases risk of command errors. AutoORM identifies ISS communication outage periods and builds commands to lock, playback, and unlock ISS Operations Recorder files. Operation Recorder files are circular buffer files of continually recorded ISS telemetry data. Sections of these files can be locked from further writing, be played back to capture telemetry data that occurred during an ISS loss of signal (LOS) period, and then be unlocked for future recording use. Downlinked Operation Recorder files are used by mission support teams for data analysis, especially if failures occur during LOS. The commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files are encompassed in three different operational procedures and contain multiple user-input fields. AutoORM provides different levels of automation for building and uplinking the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files. In its automatic mode, AutoORM automatically detects ISS LOS periods, then generates and uplinks the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files when MCC regains signal with ISS. AutoORM also features semi-autonomous and manual modes which integrate CRONUS more into the command verification and uplink process. AutoORMs ability to automatically detect ISS LOS periods and build the necessary commands to preserve, playback, and release recorded telemetry data greatly offloads CRONUS to perform more high-level cognitive tasks, such as mission planning and anomaly troubleshooting. Additionally, since Operations Recorder commands contain numerical time input fields which are tedious for a human to manually build, AutoORM's ability to automatically build commands reduces operational command errors. PPL Loader and AutoORM demonstrate principles of semi-autonomous operational tools that will benefit future space mission operations. Both tools employ different levels of automation to perform simple and routine procedures, thereby offloading human operators to perform higher-level cognitive tasks. Because both tools provide procedure execution status and highlight off-nominal indications, the flight controller is able to intervene during procedure execution if needed. Semi-autonomous tools and systems that can perform routine procedures, yet keep human operators informed of execution, will be essential in future long-duration missions where the onboard crew will be solely responsible for spacecraft monitoring and control.

Brzezinski, Amy S.↗

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

Non Radiation Hardened Microprocessors in Spaced Based Remote Sensing Systems

The CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) mission is a comprehensive suite of active and passive sensors including a 20Hz 230mj Nd:YAG lidar, a visible wavelength Earth-looking camera and an imaging infrared radiometer. CALIPSO flies in formation with the Earth Observing System Post-Meridian (EOS PM) train, provides continuous, near-simultaneous measurements and is a planned 3 year mission. CALIPSO was launched into a 98 degree sun synchronous Earth orbit in April of 2006 to study clouds and aerosols and acquires over 5 gigabytes of data every 24 hours. The ground track of one CALIPSO orbit as well as high and low intensity South Atlantic Anomaly outlines is shown. CALIPSO passes through the SAA several times each day. Spaced based remote sensing systems that include multiple instruments and/or instruments such as lidar generate large volumes of data and require robust real-time hardware and software mechanisms and high throughput processors. Due to onboard storage restrictions and telemetry downlink limitations these systems must pre-process and reduce the data before sending it to the ground. This onboard processing and realtime requirement load may mean that newer more powerful processors are needed even though acceptable radiation-hardened versions have not yet been released. CALIPSO's single board computer payload controller processor is actually a set of four (4) voting non-radiation hardened COTS Power PC 603r's built on a single width VME card by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems (GDAIS). Significant radiation concerns for CALIPSO and other Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites include the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), the north and south poles and strong solar events. Over much of South America and extending into the South Atlantic Ocean the Van Allen radiation belts dip to just 200-800km and spacecraft entering this area are subjected to high energy protons and experience higher than normal Single Event Upset (SEU) and Single Event Latch-up (SEL) rates. Although less significant, spacecraft flying in the area around the poles experience similar upsets. Finally, powerful solar proton events in the range of 10MeV/10pfu to 100MeV/1pfu as are forecasted and tracked by NOAA's Space Environment Center in Colorado can result in Single Event Upset (SEU), Single Event Latch-up (SEL) and permanent failures such as Single Event Gate Rupture (SEGR) in some technologies. (Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) are another source, especially for gate rupture) CALIPSO mitigates common radiation concerns in its data handling through the use of redundant processors, radiation-hardened Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC), hardware-based Error Detection and Correction (EDAC), processor and memory scrubbing, redundant boot code and mirrored files. After presenting a system overview this paper will expand on each of these strategies. Where applicable, related on-orbit data collected since the CALIPSO initial boot on May 4, 2006 will be noted.

Decoursey, Robert J.↗

A Flight Rule Checker for the LADEE Lunar Spacecraft

As part of the design of a space mission, an important part is the design of so-called flight rules. Flight rules express constraints on various parts and processes of the mission, that if followed, will reduce the risk of failure. One such set of flight rules constrain the format of command sequences regularly (e.g. daily) sent to the spacecraft to con-trol its next near term behavior. We present a high-level view of the automated flight rule checker FRC for checking command sequences sent to NASA’s LADEE Lunar mission spacecraft, used throughout its entire mission. A command sequence is in this case essentially a program (a sequence of commands) with no loops or conditionals, and it can there-fore be verified with a trace analysis tool. FRC is implemented using the TraceContract runtime verification tool, an internal Scala DSL for checking event sequences against “formal specifications”. The paper illustrates this untraditional use of runtime verification in a real con-text, with strong demands on the expressiveness and flexibility of the specification language, illustrating the advantages of an internal DSL.

LADEE↗

Developing A Fully Implicit Compressible Flow Valve Model in RELAP-7 and Its Application in Short Term BWR Station Black-Out Analyses

This paper presents a set of dynamical models for SRV simulation and their implementation in the RELAP-7 code, which is a new reactor system analysis code being developed at INL. RELAP-7 is based on the MOOSE (the Multi-Physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework. The compressible flow SRV model covers three different sets of models: fully closed case, subsonic case, and choking case. The RELAP-7 is a fully implicit code and the preconditioned Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method is used to solve the discretized nonlinear problem. The JFNK method generally needs a good preconditioning scheme to be effective and efficient. There are different ways to precondition the JFNK method. In RELAP-7, two main options are used to obtain the preconditioning matrix: (1) FDP (Finite Difference Preconditioning) option which uses the default finite differencing method provided in the PETSc package. PETSc is the numerical solver software developed by Argonne National Laboratory and used by MOOSE as the numerical solution engine; (2) SMP (Single Matrix Preconditioning) option which requires code developers to provide approximate analytical Jacobian inputs for the important diagonal and off-diagonal terms. Due to the strong discontinuity in the residual vector space when the compressible flow valve model switches from one set of model to another, FDP option cannot guarantee convergence. Instead, accurate analytical Jacobain terms are provided for the compressible flow valve model. With the SMP option selected, the compressible flow valve model can be solved efficiently under different cases. The developed compressible flow valve model has been used for SRV component simulation in several simplified BWR SBO (Station Black-Out) simulations with RELAP-7. This paper only presents cases for short-term SBO in which all the safety systems fail to start and function properly when SBO occurs. Consequently, only the SRVs automatically open and close periodically to control the primary system pressure and discharge the high temperature and high pressure steam into the suppression pool. Although simplified, this case is quite similar to what happened in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1. Unit 1 had no RCIC system, while the isolation condenser system was believed to be non-functioning, or only available for a very short period of time during the accident. Therefore, the Unit 1 reactor core reached a fuel failure temperature only a few hours into the accident. Two short-term SBO cases will be compared: one with single SRV discharge line which represents all the SRV lines and another case with multi-group SRVs which represent each group of SRV line with different setting points.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗

Calibers: A Bandwidth Calendaring Paradigm for Science Workflows

Many scientific workflows require large data transfers between distributed instrument facilities, storage and computing resources. To ensure that these resources are maximally utilized, R&E networks connecting these resources must ensure that an inherently unpredictable network behaves predictably. In practice, this amounts to the per-application over-provisioning of network resources in an attempt to guarantee that adequate throughput is provided to users. This often results in resource under-utilization over time. One promising solution is the use of deadlines and bandwidth calendaring. In this approach, "fair" resource allocation is replaced with deadline-based resource allocation. However, these approaches often suffer from issues in efficiently regulating resource allocation and failure modes. Therefore, our solution, Calibers, approaches bandwidth calendaring and deadline-awareness in a different way. Calibers uses shaping, metering, and pacing at the edge of the network and end-system to provide participating clients the ability to schedule bandwidth reservations without having to worry about network noise from non-participating clients. Calibers can also fail back to the fair resource allocation of underlying transport protocols if necessary. For example, if a non-participating flow somehow enters the core of the network, or a sudden network change causes the available bandwidth to be exceeded, the underlying transport protocol congestion avoidance implementation will be able to handle the congestion as it normally would. Furthermore, Calibers provides a novel simulation method and resource allocation algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NONPARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION THROUGH DECONVOLUTION IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

The advent of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and availability of open source software made full hierarchical Bayesian analysis tractable and a popular choice in parameter estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, despite its theoretical attractiveness, the hierarchical Bayesian analysis is not without its problems. Two of the most prominent practical difficulties in applying hierarchical Bayes analysis in practice to analyze source-to-source variability, for example, is its sensitivity to the selection of the first-stage prior and dependence of the rate of convergence on the selection of the first-stage prior. The first-stage prior in hierarchical Bayesian analysis is usually assumed having a parametric form, often conjugate to the likelihood function (aleatory model). To facilitate convergence for hierarchical Bayes models, the first-stage prior is frequently set through empirical Bayes estimate, which can use available historical data to find the parameters of the first-stage prior. The paper discusses a new nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation and compare it to several well-known parametric estimates such as method of moments and maximum likelihood. The new nonparametric technique exploits the prior predictive distribution as integral equation and proceeds to solve it with respect to prior assuming the sampling data distribution and aleatory model are available. The discussion covers topics such as selection of aleatory model for future data, selection of regularization parameter, and density estimation for historical data. For comparison, the paper is using contrived as well as real-world data from utilities. Utilities data represent failure data with Poisson distribution used for aleatory model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

Advanced SOFC quality control and the role of manufacturing defects on stack reliability

Atrex Energy rolled out first commercial SOFC generator products in 2013. Following that we embarked on implementation of mass production in order to ramp up productivity and lower the costs in the meantime. To ensure the goal of mass production, an accurate, cost effective and consistent quality control methodology needs to be in place. The aim of this DOE funded project is to devise a machine and methodology for cell quality control using modern non-destructive testing methods and cell rejection criterion based on the empirical determination of the role of manufacturing flaws on stack degradation and reliability. The work scope encompasses two goals aimed at 1) developing automatable techniques for objective flaw detection and 2) developing an understanding of the ramifications of flaws on stack and cell reliability. By accomplishing these two goals it is likely that an advanced stage Quality Control (QC) device can be developed. This project scope encompasses: 1) Invention of a high speed automated instrument for spatial mapping of surface and sub-surface imperfections in production cells (ex situ) using modern imaging techniques. 2) Identification of rejection criteria upon which to screen cells from production by: a. Magnification of the effect of production defects on cell degradation through fabrication and testing of micro-cells which encompass these imperfections. b. The long term testing of full size production cells both as single cells and in small stacks, in order to correlate the (in situ) performance and degradation with the imperfection type (identified ex-situ) and hence be able to classify imperfections as actual defects. We first built a defect library with the cells containing imperfections classified and documented. The cells with various imperfections were tested to evaluate the imperfection potential impact on cell electrochemical performance. Evaluations were conducted on minicell, single cell and stack levels. On minicell level, pinhole, scratch, crack, contamination, and pop-out were investigated. We found: (1) none of the imperfections causes calamity type failure, (2) pinholes do not show measurable effect on minicell performance, (3) imperfection such as electrolyte abrasion, scratch, and pop out cause minicell potential to fluctuate by different degrees; the cells with such imperfections exhibit sensitivity of potential to high fuel utilization and “self healing” behavior. On single cell level we evaluated the effect of long crack and high population pinholes. The cell with a long crack does not show performance compromise at start. There is no potential fluctuation or sensitivity to high fuel utilization or catastrophic failure. The voltage degradation due to thermal cycle is slightly higher than normal cells. The cells with high population pinholes perform surprisingly as well as normal cells over a period of 3,500h. Even when subjected to cyclic load condition, the cells 4 show negligible degradation. Our cells appear to have “self immunization” feature which fends off the adversary effects of certain imperfections. Defects were also evaluated on stack level. Two stacks were made each with ten defect cells. The first stack was tested for 13,2000h under steady load condition while the second was tested for 9,000h under transient load conditions. We found: (1) voltage fluctuation and sensitivity to thermal cycle were not observed in contrast to minicell test, (2) of the various cracks examined, including longitudinal cracks, circumferential crack, crack near closed and open ends, none exhibited distinguishable impact on performance, (3) defect cells exhibited higher degradation rates on average under steady load condition; Individually some defect cells performed similarly or better than reference cells, (4) under steady load condition all the cells degrade monotonically with degradation rate increasing with time, (5) under cyclic (transient) load condition, both defect and reference cells exhibit complex dynamic behaviors, (6) fuel loss (leak) was measured occasionally for stack 1, the cells with crack showed the highest fuel loss increase, nevertheless, no correlation with performance degradation could be established with certainty, and (7) no catastrophic failure ever happened other than incremental degradation. Posttest inspection and microanalysis were carried out; the observations are summarized in what follows: (1) Electrolyte pinholes, some scratches and IC porosity became undetectable after testing. (2) The cathode covering the popout defects is intact without any cracking or delamination. (3) The scratch was covered by cathode in pristine state; Ni oxide or NiO-YSZ filled the space where electrolyte was missing. After >10,000h operation, the cathode that used to cover the scratch was missing but the size of the scratch remains unchanged; there is a fairly dense Ni oxide layer on top of the scratch. (4) All of the cracks remain their original dimensions. Current collector kept longitudinal cracks closed which mitigated the adversary effect of crack on cell performance/durability. (5) The crack at open end showed some deterioration manifested by a small oxidation zone in the vicinity of the crack. Wide spectrum of imaging techniques were surveyed and evaluated to detect tubular SOFC defects. Optical methods, with and without assistance of expression technique, were applied to detect all kinds of defects. Thermograph method in combination of CO2 leak, ultra-sound and electric potential was also extensively evaluated to detect surface and under-surface defects such as short circuit. Based on these works, laser camera has been selected to build the final QC machine vision inspection system. The Gocator laser profile sensor was setup to generate 2D surface intensity images of tubular SOFC surface which were analyzed with Sherlock machine vision software supplied by Teledyne Dalsa. The Gocator output was integrated with the Sherlock software and enabled live images to be imported by a Common Vision Blox driver. The Sherlock software was programmed to detect various surface defects from the surface intensity images generated by the Gocator. These measurements are subsequently used to make pass or fail decisions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗