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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Manned Lunar Missions: An Exercise in Propulsion Trades and Sensitivities

A recent study performed for the In-Space Propulsion Technology Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the effects of using different propellant types on the different stages required to perform a manned lunar mission. The original study included investigations into propellant type, propellant storage technology options and sensitivities to specific impulse variations for a lunar orbit rendezvous mission. The initial mission characteristics were based on previous work led by Langley Research Center. Outlined in this paper are the results of that study and the work that followed. A lunar direct return architecture was added to the analysis. Since both architectures required assembly of the various propulsive stages in low Earth orbit and multiple launches to deliver those stages, investigations of launch sequence and scheduling sensitivities were also included. Results show that lunar direct return architectures require more mass to complete missions when compared to lunar orbit rendezvous missions. Within the given architectures, trends in the results tended to be very similar with the architectures indicating very little sensitivity to launch sequence and specific impulse variations and indicating more sensitivity to the propellant choice made for each stage and the time between launches. Even though this study investigates a small subset of the possible lunar architecture trade space, it does begin to outline some of the issues that must be investigated and the characteristics of the mission and the mission elements that are of most importance to a full architecture assessment.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

Downregulation of caveolin-1 increased EGFR-TKIs sensitivity in lung adenocarcinoma cell line with EGFR mutation

Highlights: • Knockdown of Cav-1 enhanced EGFR-TKIs sensitivity in PC-9 cells. • Knockdown of Cav-1 inhibited biological behavior of PC-9 cells. • Cav-1 functions as a predictor for poor efficacy of EGFR-TKIs in human lung adenocarcinoma. Although epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs), including gefitinib and erlotinib, have shown notable effects in lung adenocarcinoma patients harboring EGFR mutations, there are significant differences between individual patients in the degree of benefits provided by EGFR-TKIs. Some evidence supports a role for caveolin-1 (Cav-1) in modulating drug sensitivity. This study aimed to investigate whether Cav-1 plays an important role in sensitivity to EGFR-TKIs in lung adenocarcinoma cells. Downregulation of Cav-1 in PC-9 cells were performed to investigate changes in sensitivity to EGFR-TKIs in vitro and in vivo. Knockdown of Cav-1 dramatically enhanced sensitivity to EGFR-TKIs by down-regulating phosphorylation of EGFR. These results suggest that Cav-1 may be a predictor of the poor efficacy of EGFR-TKIs treatment in lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR mutations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Nonequilibrium radiative heating prediction method for aeroassist flowfields with coupling to flowfield solvers

A method for predicting radiation adsorption and emission coefficients in thermochemical nonequilibrium flows is developed. The method is called the Langley optimized radiative nonequilibrium code (LORAN). It applies the smeared band approximation for molecular radiation to produce moderately detailed results and is intended to fill the gap between detailed but costly prediction methods and very fast but highly approximate methods. The optimization of the method to provide efficient solutions allowing coupling to flowfield solvers is discussed. Representative results are obtained and compared to previous nonequilibrium radiation methods, as well as to ground- and flight-measured data. Reasonable agreement is found in all cases. A multidimensional radiative transport method is also developed for axisymmetric flows. Its predictions for wall radiative flux are 20 to 25 percent lower than those of the tangent slab transport method, as expected, though additional investigation of the symmetry and outflow boundary conditions is indicated. The method was applied to the peak heating condition of the aeroassist flight experiment (AFE) trajectory, with results comparable to predictions from other methods. The LORAN method was also applied in conjunction with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code LAURA to study the sensitivity of the radiative heating prediction to various models used in nonequilibrium CFD. This study suggests that radiation measurements can provide diagnostic information about the detailed processes occurring in a nonequilibrium flowfield because radiation phenomena are very sensitive to these processes.

Hartung, Lin C.↗

Verification of the sensitivity and uncertainty-based criticality safety validation techniques: ORNL’s SCALE case study

The use of sensitivity and uncertainty-based techniques has been well-developed in the neutronic community for criticality safety applications. Sensitivity techniques calculate the first-order relative variations in keff due to relative cross-section variations by isotope, reaction type, and incident neutron energy. The result is a vector of sensitivity coefficients which is folded with prior cross-section uncertainties to calculate the so-called similarity indices. Similarity indices are integral quantities which serve as useful mathematical measures for assessing the relevance of existing or new experiments to given application conditions, representing design systems for which the models are to be validated. Despite their importance for a wide range of validation activities, the peer-reviewed literature is non-existent on the development of rigorous verification analysis for their calculated values. Thus, this manuscript proposes a simple non-intrusive method to calculate similarity indices, serving as an independent verification tool for their evaluation. The manuscript derives the theoretical basis for the proposed verification analysis. Next, the verification analysis is applied to the ORNL’s SCALE code suite which employs adjoint-based methods to calculate similarity indices. Numerical experiments using a number of well-known benchmark experiments are employed to verify the calculation of the similarity indices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗

Contamination of grazing incidence EUV mirrors - An assessment

Contamination assessment for space optical systems requires an understanding of the sensitivity of component performance, e.g. mirror reflectance, to materials deposited on the mirror surface. In a previous study, the sensitivity of typical normal incidence mirror coatings to surface deposits of generic hydrocarbons was reported. Recent activity in the development of grazing incidence telescopes for extreme ultraviolet space astronomy has stimulated the need for a similar assessment in the spectral region extending from approximately 100 A to 1000 A. The model used for analysis treats the contamination layer as a continuous thin film deposited on the mirror surface. The mirror surfaces selected for this study are opaque vacuum deposited gold and the uncoated and polished Zerodur. Scatter caused by film irregularities or particulates are not included in this assessment. Parametric evaluations at 100, 500, and 1000 A determine the sensitivity of mirror reflectance to a range of optical constants selected for the generic contaminants. This sensitivity analysis combined with the limited amount of optical data in the EUV for hydrocarbons, is used to select representative optical constants for the three wavelength regions. Reflectance versus contamination layer thickness curves are then calculated and used to determine critical thickness limits based on allowable reflectance change. Initial observations indicate that thickness limits will be highly dependent on the real part of the complex index of refraction of the contaminant film being less than 1.0. Preliminary laboratory measurements of samples contaminated with some commonly encountered hydrocarbons confirm trends indicated in the analytical studies.

Osantowski, John F.↗

Sensitivity Analysis Comparisons on Geologic Case Studies: An International Collaboration

Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗

Sensitivity to longitudinal vector boson scattering and doubly charged Higgs boson production in $W^± W^± jj$ at future hadron colliders

We study the sensitivity to longitudinal vector boson scattering at a 27-, 50-, and 100-TeV pp collider using events containing two leptonically decaying same-electric-charge 𝑊 bosons produced in association with two jets. The baseline FCC-hh detector parametrization within the D ELPHES framework is used under the assumption of fully efficient pileup mitigation. A tightly constrained phase space with a dijet mass greater than 2 TeV is considered in order to suppress the impact of potential instrumental backgrounds. Based on this setup, the expected sensitivity to the production of longitudinally polarized same-sign 𝑊 boson pairs is evaluated. Additionally, expected limits are set on doubly charged Higgs bosons produced via vector boson fusion processes and decaying to same-sign 𝑊 boson pairs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An initial investigation into methods of computing transonic aerodynamic sensitivity coefficients

Continuing studies associated with the development of the quasi-analytical (QA) sensitivity method for three dimensional transonic flow about wings are presented. Furthermore, initial results using the quasi-analytical approach were obtained and compared to those computed using the finite difference (FD) approach. The basic goals achieved were: (1) carrying out various debugging operations pertaining to the quasi-analytical method; (2) addition of section design variables to the sensitivity equation in the form of multiple right hand sides; (3) reconfiguring the analysis/sensitivity package in order to facilitate the execution of analysis/FD/QA test cases; and (4) enhancing the display of output data to allow careful examination of the results and to permit various comparisons of sensitivity derivatives obtained using the FC/QA methods to be conducted easily and quickly. In addition to discussing the above goals, the results of executing subcritical and supercritical test cases are presented.

Carlson, Leland A.↗

Making Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Rohling, E. J.↗

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-like events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling"

This package contains the data and scripts used in "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling" (Jiang et al., 2022). The ARW_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the American River Watershed. The Portage_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the Portage River Watershed. The src folder contains the source code of sensitivity analysis and plotting functions. The notebooks folder contains the Jupyter notebooks for performing sensitivity analysis and other post analyses.Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) often is applied to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to their inputs using ensemble simulations. However, increasing model complexity and the associated computational cost have limited the use of most GSA approaches for process-based watershed models. We propose to use Mutual Information (MI) as a computationally efficient GSA method for watershed modeling. Such MI computed from several hundred realizations usually can capture nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs of interest. We perform MI-based watershed sensitivity analyses in studies of the Portage River Watershed in Ohio and the American River Watershed in Washington. In these studies, MI is used to evaluate the sensitivity of river discharges simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to no less than 20 parameters for each watershed. Our MI-based sensitivity analyses achieved convergence with about 300~500 realizations, a small fraction of the ensemble size (i.e., several thousand) required by the Sobol method. Nevertheless, MI yields similar sensitivity ranking compared to the Sobol method, especially for sensitive parameters. Our study thus sheds new light on the use of MI as an affordable GSA method for computationally intensive models such as the hyper-resolution, watershed hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental studies of nuclear matrix elements for neutrino-less ββ decays

Nuclear matrix elements M{sup 0ν} for neutrino less double beta decays (0νββ) are crucial for neutrino studies in 0νββ experiments. The neutrino mass to be studied is sensitive to M{sup 0ν}, while theoretical calculations for M{sup 0ν} are hard. Thus experimental studies of nuclear structures and single β matrix elements M{sub β} associated with 0νββ are useful to confirm and help the theoretical calculations. This reports briefly experimental methods and recent charge exchange reaction studies for M{sub β}. The single β elements for M{sup ±}(2{sup −}) associated with M{sup 0ν}(2{sup −}), which is the major component of M{sup 0ν}, are found to be reduced (quenched) much by the spin isospin correlation and the nuclear medium (non-nucleonic isobar) effect. The present result suggests that the spin isospin components of M{sup 0ν} is fairly reduced (quenched)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity measurements for a 250 MHz quartz shear-horizontal surface acoustic wave biosensor under liquid viscous loading

Surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices have been used in biochemical assays due to their high sensitivity. The device sensitivity is a function of changes in the density and viscosity of the liquid. Here, we studied the effect of fluid viscosity using a 250 MHz quartz shear-horizontal (SH)-SAW biosensor by monitoring different concentrations of binary aqueous/glycerol solutions. In this study, the sensitivity of the biosensor was determined by fitting the data to models derived from perturbation theory. Measurements in water were used as the reference. For a 0% to 50% glycerol solution, an 87°–204° separation in the phase shift was observed. The slope of the plot of the phase shift vs (ηρ)0.5 was used to indicate the sensor’s sensitivity. The sensitivity for our 250 MHz quartz SH-SAW sensors was calculated to be 3.7×10−3m2sKg. The corresponding mass sensitivity was determined to be 9.25 × 105m2Kg. The limit of detection was calculated to be 36 picograms (pg), while the limit of quantification or LOQ was calculated to be 109 pg. Traditionally, liquid phase measurements have been challenging for SAW devices because liquids dampen the vibrating sensors severely. This problem has been largely solved using a transverse (shear) wave instead of the more popular longitudinal or Rayleigh waves. Liquid measurements are now possible using transverse waves, also known as shear waves, because transverse waves are only minimally attenuated by liquids. Shear-horizontal SAW sensors (SH-SAW) show great promise as label-free biosensors because of their ability to handle liquid samples. However, the viscosity of the liquid still induces loading effects and can be measured when the liquid is loaded onto the SH-SAW propagating surface (delay line). When the liquid above the delay line is perturbed by physical or chemical changes, such as binding to a receptor, it alters the propagating acoustic wave. The SH-SAW device can measure these changes in liquid properties as a change in the wave’s phase compared to the original wave. The device’s phase shift was recorded as a function of the changes in the density and viscosity of the binary glycerol solution and used to determine the sensitivity in the linear dynamic range of responses.

Materials Science↗