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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Impacts of Local Convective Processes on Rain on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico

Abstract This study aims to determine the impacts of tropical island processes on local convective storms. An analysis of rain events on the island of Puerto Rico between 1 June 2015 and 31 July 2016 showed that local island‐enhanced western storms accounted for 89 of 322 storms. This period is of particular importance for the Caribbean as 2015 was one of the driest years on record. While large‐scale influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, African easterly waves, and Saharan dust transport modulate moisture conditions in the region, correlations between precipitation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (−0.14), North Atlantic Oscillation (−0.42), and Saharan dust (0.1) for 1980–2016 ranged from weak to moderate. Local data for the island of Puerto Rico from weather stations, the Convection, Aerosol, and Synoptic‐Effects in the Tropics field campaign, and the North American Mesoscale model support the initiation or enhancement of convective rain events due to local island processes. In particular, analysis of surface wind speed/direction, convective available potential energy, lifted index, and the bulk Richardson number substantiate local instability due to surface heating, orographic uplift, and sea breeze trade‐wind convergence. These convective forcings along with available precipitable water in excess of 50 mm ultimately led to intense storms despite severe rainfall‐mitigating dust episodes for which aerosol optical thickness exceeded 0.4. These results may have major implications for considering the impacts of local air‐sea‐land interactions on rainfall over other tropical islands.

Hosannah, N.↗

Laboratory Experiments of Volcanic Ash Resuspension by Wind

Abstract Fresh volcanic eruption deposits tend to be loose, bare, and readily resuspended by wind. Major resuspension events in Patagonia, Iceland, and Alaska have lofted ash clouds with potential to impact aircraft, infrastructure, and downwind communities. However, poor constraints on this resuspension process limit our ability to model this phenomenon. Here, we present laboratory experiments measuring threshold shear velocities and emission rates of resuspended ash under different environmental conditions, including relative humidity of 25–75% and simulated rainfall with subsequent drying. Eruption deposits were replicated using ash collected from two major eruptions: the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens and the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, in Alaska's Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes. Samples were conditioned in a laboratory chamber and prepared with bulk deposit densities of 1,300–1,500 kg/m 3 . A control sample of dune sand was included for comparison. The deposits were subjected to different wind speeds using a modified PI‐SWERL® instrument. Under a constant relative humidity of 50% and shear velocities 0.4–0.8 m/s, PM 10 emission by resuspension ranged from 10 to >100 mg·m −2 ·s −1 . Addition of liquid water equivalent to 5 mm of rainfall had little lasting effect on Mount St. Helens wind erosion potential, while the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes deposits exhibited lower emissions for at least 12 days. The results indicate that particle resuspension due to wind erosion from ash deposits potentially exceeds that of most desert surfaces and approaches some of the highest emissions ever measured.

Etyemezian, V.↗

Structure and Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics in Convection‐Permitting Simulations Over the United States

Abstract Regional climate simulations over the continental United States were conducted for the 2011 warm season using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection‐permitting resolution (4 km) with two commonly used microphysics parameterizations (Thompson and Morrison). Sensitivities of the simulated mesoscale convective system (MCS) properties and feedbacks to large‐scale environments are systematically examined against high‐resolution geostationary satellite and 3‐D mosaic radar observations. MCS precipitation including precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, and distribution of hourly precipitation intensity are reasonably captured by the two simulations despite significant differences in their simulated MCS properties. In general, the Thompson simulation produces better agreement with observations for MCS upper level cloud shield and precipitation area, convective feature horizontal and vertical extents, and partitioning between convective and stratiform precipitation. More importantly, Thompson simulates more stratiform rainfall, which agrees better with observations and results in top‐heavier heating profiles from robust MCSs compared to Morrison. A stronger dynamical feedback to the large‐scale environment is therefore seen in Thompson, wherein an enhanced mesoscale vortex behind the MCS strengthens the synoptic‐scale trough and promotes advection of cool and dry air into the rear of the MCS region. The latter prolongs the MCS lifetimes in the Thompson relative to the Morrison simulations. Hence, different treatment of cloud microphysics not only alters MCS convective‐scale dynamics but also has significant impacts on their macrophysical properties such as lifetime and precipitation. As long‐lived MCSs produced 2–3 times the amount of rainfall compared to short‐lived ones, cloud microphysics parameterizations have profound impact in simulating extreme precipitation and the hydrologic cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal and Interannual Patterns and Controls of Hydrological Fluxes in an Amazon Floodplain Lake With a Surface-Subsurface Process Model

Floodplain lakes represent important aquatic ecosystems, and field-based estimates of their water budgets are difficult to obtain, especially over multiple years. We examine the hydrological fluxes for an Amazon floodplain lake connected to the Solimões River using a process-based hydrologic model. Water exchanges between the river and lake agree well with field estimates, including the timing of different hydrological phases. However, beyond available field data, modeling results show that the seven simulated years all differed from each other. These interannual differences were caused by the interplay between phases when water levels were rising with river-water flowing into the lake (RWRI), versus rising with lake-water flowing out to the river (RWLO). This exchange determines the river-water content in the lake ( C L ). Maximum C L occurred before river levels peaked because local catchment contributions can be sufficient to push lake-water out to the river, even as river levels rise. Numerical experiments show that the seasonal distribution of local rainfall, local catchment size, and interannual variability in both climate and river stage can contribute to differing dynamics of C L in a floodplain lake. Their impacts vary among phases: river-rise dominates the RWRI, whereas local hydrological processes dominate the RWLO and receding-water phases. Intermediate-to-long-term rainfall accumulation controls C L during the RWLO phase, whereas annual precipitation accumulation is important for C L during low water. Finally, our model generalizes beyond limited available field studies and offers potential to better understand floodplain lakes in other areas and how regional versus local changes in climate may affect their hydrological dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensification of the Pre-Meiyu Rainband in the Late 21st Century

Increased atmospheric moisture content and changing land-ocean thermal contrasts are usually implicated in the East Asian summer rainfall response to global warming. We highlight an additional influence whereby increased meridional stationary eddy circulation downstream of the Tibetan Plateau drives a stronger moisture flux convergence over southeastern China, intensifying the early summer rainband. This effect occurs robustly across the Community Earth System Model large ensemble Representative Control Pathway 8.5 simulations, and only for its pre-Meiyu stage (mid-May through late June). The westerly jet impinging on the Plateau is also enhanced, suggesting an orographic influence on the westerlies as the root cause. The increased westerlies result from warmer tropical tropospheric temperatures that enhance the meridional temperature gradient at the latitudes of the Plateau. Finally, our results highlight the potential role of the westerlies in altering the East Asian early summer monsoon rainfall in the late 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Relationship of Cloud Number and Size With Their Large-Scale Environment in Deep Tropical Convection

Accurately representing the properties and impact of tropical convection in climate models requires an understanding of the relationships between the state of a convective cloud ensemble and the environment it is embedded in. We investigate this relationship using 13 years of radar observations in the tropics. Specifically, we focus on convective cell number and size and quantify their relationship to atmospheric stability, midtropospheric vertical motion and humidity. We find several key convective states embedded in their own unique environments. The most area-averaged rainfall occurs with a moderate number of moderate size convective cell in an environment of high humidity, strong vertical ascent, and moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). The strongest rainfall intensities are found with few large cells. Those exist in a dry and subsiding environment with both high CAPE and CIN. Finally, large numbers of convective cells are associated with small CAPE and CIN, weak ascent, and a moist midtroposphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Surface‐Atmosphere Coupling Scale, the Fate of Water, and Ecophysiological Function in a Brazilian Forest

Abstract Tropical South America plays a central role in global climate. Bowen ratio teleconnects to circulation and precipitation processes far afield, and the global CO 2 growth rate is strongly influenced by carbon cycle processes in South America. However, quantification of basin‐wide seasonality of flux partitioning between latent and sensible heat, the response to anomalies around climatic norms, and understanding of the processes and mechanisms that control the carbon cycle remains elusive. Here, we investigate simulated surface‐atmosphere interaction at a single site in Brazil, using models with different representations of precipitation and cloud processes, as well as differences in scale of coupling between the surface and atmosphere. We find that the model with parameterized clouds/precipitation has a tendency toward unrealistic perpetual light precipitation, while models with explicit treatment of clouds produce more intense and less frequent rain. Models that couple the surface to the atmosphere on the scale of kilometers, as opposed to tens or hundreds of kilometers, produce even more realistic distributions of rainfall. Rainfall intensity has direct consequences for the “fate of water,” or the pathway that a hydrometeor follows once it interacts with the surface. We find that the model with explicit treatment of cloud processes, coupled to the surface at small scales, is the most realistic when compared to observations. These results have implications for simulations of global climate, as the use of models with explicit (as opposed to parameterized) cloud representations becomes more widespread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Propagation of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events over United States: A Complex Network Analysis

Complex Network (CN) is a graph-theory based depiction of relation shared by various elements of a complex-dynamical system such as the atmosphere. Here we applied the concept of CN to understand the directionality and topological structure of summer extreme precipitation events (SEPEs) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SEPEs are calculated based on the 95th percentile daily rainfall at 0.5ox0.5o spatial resolution for CONUS to investigate the multi-dimensional characteristics of precipitation extremes. The derived CN coefficients (e.g., betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, orientation, and network divergence) reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the SEPEs and improve understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of SEPEs from the source-zones to the sink-zones are identified. The SEPEs are influenced by topography, dominant wind patterns, and moisture sources in terms of their topological structure and spatial dynamics.

Mondal, Somnath↗

Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Global High‐Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database Using Satellite‐Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking

Abstract A new methodology is developed to construct a global (60°S–60°N) long‐term (2000–2019) high‐resolution (∼10‐km h) mesoscale convective system (MCS) database by tracking MCS jointly using geostationary satellite infrared brightness temperature ( T b ) and precipitation feature (PF) characteristics from the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM precipitation data sets. Independent validation shows that the satellite‐based MCS data set is able to reproduce important MCS statistics derived from ground‐based radar network observations in the United States and China. We show that by carefully considering key PF characteristics in addition to T b signatures, the new method significantly improves upon previous T b ‐only methods in detecting MCSs in the midlatitudes for all seasons. Results show that MCSs account for over 50% of annual total rainfall across most of the tropical belt and in selected regions of the midlatitudes, with a strong seasonality over many regions of the globe. The tracking database allows Lagrangian aspects such as MCS lifetime and translational speed and direction to be analyzed. The longest‐lived MCSs preferentially occur over the subtropical oceans. The land MCSs have higher cloud‐tops associated with more intense convection, and oceanic MCSs have much higher rainfall production. While MCSs are observed in many regions of the globe, there are fundamental differences in their dynamic and thermodynamic structures that warrant a better understanding of processes that control their evolution. This global database provides significant opportunities for observational and modeling studies of MCSs, their characteristics, and roles in regional and global water and energy cycles, as well as their hydrologic and other impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distortions of the Rain Distribution With Warming, With and Without Self-Aggregation

We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative-convective equilibrium states in a cloud-resolving model. For a given Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20%–30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative- and surface-flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non-trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius-Clapeyron and super-Clausius-Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges. The potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However, these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self-aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics, and turbulence schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Improved Simulation of Precipitation on Evapotranspiration and Its Partitioning Over Land

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle, which is strongly modulated by the occurrence of different rainfall intensities. Global climate models (GCMs) commonly suffer from “too much light rain” and a negative bias in the ratio of transpiration (T) to ET (T/ET). It is unclear whether these biases are related. Here, in this work, we show that with the improved simulation of probability density functions of rainfall intensity by suppressing light-rain occurrence using a stochastic convection parameterization in the NCAR CESM1.2, the canopy T increases in tropical forests while evaporation from canopy interception and bare soil decreases. The simulated T/ET is increased by 2.5% globally and up to 8% regionally, primarily attributable to reduced fraction of wet leaves due to less frequent light rain despite its weak intensity. These results imply that excessive light rain is an important cause of the negative T/ET bias in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Precipitation Bias Sensitivities in E3SM-Multi-Scale Modeling Framework From a Dilution Framework

We investigate a set of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) (E3SM-MMF) simulations that vary the dimensionality and momentum transport configurations of the embedded cloud-resolving models (CRMs), including unusually ambitious 3D configurations. Issues endemic to all MMF simulations include too much Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall and too little over the Amazon. Systematic MMF improvements include more on-equatorial rainfall across the Warm Pool. Interesting sensitivities to the CRM domain are found in the regional time-mean precipitation pattern over the tropics. The 2D E3SM-MMF produces an unrealistically rainy region over the northwestern tropical Pacific; this is reduced in computationally ambitious 3D configurations that use 1,024 embedded CRM grid columns per host cell. Trajectory analysis indicates that these regional improvements are associated with desirably fewer tropical cyclones and less extreme precipitation rates. To understand why and how the representation of precipitation improved in 3D, we propose a framework that dilution is stronger in 3D. This viewpoint is supported by multiple indirect lines of evidence, including a delayed moisture-precipitation pickup, smaller precipitation efficiency, and amplified convective mass flux profiles and more high clouds. We also demonstrate that the effects of varying embedded CRM dimensionality and momentum transport on precipitation can be identified during the first few simulated days, providing an opportunity for rapid model tuning without high computational cost. Meanwhile the results imply that other less computationally intensive ways to enhance dilution within MMF CRMs may also be strategic tuning targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summertime Near-Surface Temperature Biases Over the Central United States in Convection-Permitting Simulations

Convection-Permitting Model (CPM) simulations of the Central United States climate for the summer of 2011 are studied to understand the causes of warm biases in 2-m air temperature (T 2m ) and related underestimates of precipitation including that from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Based on 10 CPM simulations and 9 coarser-resolution model simulations, we quantify contributions from evaporative fraction (EF) and radiation to the T 2m bias with both types of models overestimating T 2m largely because they underestimate EF. The performance of CPMs in capturing MCS characteristics (frequency, rainfall, propagation) varies. The pre-summer precipitation bias has large correlation with mean summertime T 2m bias but the relationship between summertime MCS mean rainfall bias and T 2m bias is non-monotonic. Analysis of lifting condensation level deficit and convective available potential energy suggests that models with T 2m warm biases and low EF have too dry and stable boundary layers, inhibiting the formation of clouds, precipitation and MCSs. Among the CPMs with differing model formulations (e.g., transpiration, infiltration, cloud macrophysics and microphysics), evidence suggests that altering the land-surface model is more effective than altering the atmospheric model in reducing T 2m biases. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that land-atmosphere interactions play a very important role in determining the summertime climate of the Central United States.

2-m air temperature↗

A Statistical Framework for Evaluating Rain Microphysics in Model Simulations and Disdrometer Observations

Abstract Statistical analyses of a large disdrometer data set and a diverse set of model simulations for convection using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were conducted, with the mutual goal of providing insights into precipitation formation and microphysical processes. We demonstrate that a two‐moment bulk microphysical model successfully captures the dominant observed modes of variability in rainfall related to rainfall intensity and raindrop size distributions. The model reproduced the general distribution of observed precipitation groups (PGs) derived from Principal Component Analysis. The multi‐variable analysis also uncovered some shortcomings in the model as well as limitations of the disdrometer data. The model solutions were constrained in their predicted drop size distributions (DSDs) due to the fixed DSD parameters assumed in a two‐moment microphysics scheme. A case study from the Mid‐latitude Continental Clouds and Convection Experiment field project demonstrated how model results can be used to contextualize the disdrometer observations which are limited in sample size, spatial coherence, and detection of small drops and low drop concentrations. The case study also showed that the spatial patterns of the statistically derived PGs revealed by the model are consistent with the hypothesized microphysical processes that determine surface rain DSDs. This work demonstrates how leveraging the strengths of observations and models together can improve our understanding and representation of rain microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships Between Mesoscale Convective System Properties and Midlevel Dynamic Perturbations

Abstract Past studies implicate dynamic anomalies operating on subsynoptic scales as a possible initiation source of summertime (July–August) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States during northwesterly flow regimes. To improve our understanding of warm season MCSs occurring over a variety of flow regimes, we track midlevel (600 hPa) vorticity perturbations (“MPs”) as 2D objects comprising wavelengths of 500–2,500 km over the central US from May–August of 2004–2021. We perform statistical analysis of relationships between metrics of MP objects (e.g., duration, size, intensity, and origin) and high‐resolution MCS precipitation characteristics (e.g., duration, total rainfall, rain coverage area, and motion) that occur while collocated with or in the absence of MPs to discern predictive capability of background dynamic features on storm precipitation potential. Although the majority of MPs collocated with MCS initiation occur during July–August, a significant number (40%) occur between May and June. Northwesterly flow MPs comprise a relative minority of our events, suggesting that MPs can affect MCSs across a variety of warm season flow regimes. MPs affecting MCSs initiated primarily over the high plains near the central Rockies. Only approximately 20% of tracked MCS initiation events were collocated with MPs, but these storms produced ∼25% greater lifetime rainfall and coverage area, and ∼29% more stratiform rain than non‐MP‐induced MCSs. In general, larger and more vigorous MPs resulted in more hydrologically impactful MCSs. The most directly attributable benefit to MCS initiation was from MP‐enhanced background vertical motion and thermodynamic instability (e.g., increased CAPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗