Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “prediction methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Data-driven discovery of dynamics from time-resolved coherent scattering

Coherent X-ray scattering (CXS) techniques are capable of interrogating dynamics of nano- to mesoscale materials systems at time scales spanning several orders of magnitude. However, obtaining accurate theoretical descriptions of complex dynamics is often limited by one or more factors—the ability to visualize dynamics in real space, computational cost of high-fidelity simulations, and effectiveness of approximate or phenomenological models. In this work, we develop a data-driven framework to uncover mechanistic models of dynamics directly from time-resolved CXS measurements without solving the phase reconstruction problem for the entire time series of diffraction patterns. Our approach uses neural differential equations to parameterize unknown real-space dynamics and implements a computational scattering forward model to relate real-space predictions to reciprocal-space observations. This method is shown to recover the dynamics of several computational model systems under various simulated conditions of measurement resolution and noise. Moreover, the trained model enables estimation of long-term dynamics well beyond the maximum observation time, which can be used to inform and refine experimental parameters in practice. Finally, we demonstrate an experimental proof-of-concept by applying our framework to recover the probe trajectory from a ptychographic scan. Our proposed framework bridges the wide existing gap between approximate models and complex data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel PBX formulations containing thermally-expandable microspheres for on-demand control of explosive behavior

In this work, we present the formulation and analysis of inert Plastic-Bonded eXplosive (PBX)-surrogates loaded with thermally expandable microspheres (TEMs). TEMs consist of a thermoplastic acrylonitrile shell (10-50 µm diameter) encapsulating an inert low boiling hydrocarbon. Upon heating, the TEMs expand as the shell softens while the hydrocarbon gasifies, increasing the internal pressure and expanding the particle by as much as 120 vol%. We hypothesize that TEM expansion within a PBX will introduce tunable changes in local density and porosity, and ultimately the shock sensitivity. This paper focuses on microstructural analysis of surrogate PBX-TEM formulations, both before and after thermally- induced TEM expansion. The formulations were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), ultra-small angle neutron scattering (USANS), and X-ray Computed Tomography (x-ray CT) under various thermal conditions. Evidence suggests that TEM expansion within a PBX is a viable method to impart microstructural changes that are predicted to have a measurable, on-demand effect on the initiation sensitivity. Future work includes development of PBX-TEM formulations with HMX and shock initiation experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Using ensembles and distillation to optimize the deployment of deep learning models for the classification of electronic cancer pathology reports

One of the goals of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program is to estimate incidence, prevalence, and mortality of all cancers. To that end, cancer registries across the country maintain a massive database of cancer pathology reports which contain rich information to understand cancer trends. However, these reports are stored in the form of unstructured text, and human annotators are required to read and extract relevant information. In this article, we show that existing deep learning models for automating information extraction from cancer pathology reports can be significantly improved by using ensemble model distillation. We found that by training multiple predictive models and transferring their knowledge to a single, low-resource model, we can reduce the number of highly confident wrong predictions. Our results show that our implemented methods could save 1000s of manual annotation hours.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Supervised Learning for Distribution Secondary Systems Modeling: Improving Solar Interconnection Processes

The current interconnection process and hosting capacity analysis for distributed energy resources (DERs), such as photovoltaics (PV) and battery energy storage systems, are based on analyzing grid network constraints (voltage and thermal) using only medium-voltage distribution network models. This is because most utilities do not have secondary low-voltage system models that connect service transformers and residential customers. This is important because in many cases the main impact of interconnecting DERs could occur on the low-voltage distribution systems. This paper proposes a supervised learning method to approximate local secondary models to improve the interconnection process. The proposed supervised learning method includes a decision tree model that predicts the secondary topology and a logistic regression model that predicts conductor types. The case studies demonstrate the benefits of including secondary low-voltage circuits in the interconnection process. We report the proposed modeling methodology is readily scalable and thus can reduce the cost and effort of PV interconnection for the industry and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Thermal Neutron Scattering Cross Sections for CaH 2

Solid metal hydrides have long been considered viable moderators for nuclear reactor designs due to their moderating ratios, hydrogen densities, high dissociation temperatures, and mechanical properties. CaH 2 is an orthorhombic saline-hydride that has recently been investigated and shows promise for use as a moderator in microreactors. At present, there is no Thermal Scatting Law (TSL) evaluation for CaH 2 in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 database. An evaluation does exist in the JEFF-3.3 database, performed by Serot, however it was limited by the implemented methods and thus both drastically over-predicts the incoherent elastic contribution and completely ignores the coherent elastic contribution to scattering from the metal ions. The thermal neutron scattering cross sections of CaH 2 are evaluated in this work to establish accurate data for use in reactor design. The present evaluation corrects the inaccuracies of the JEFF-3.3 data, and yields three distinct libraries: Ca in CaH 2 , H 1 in CaH 2 , and H 2 in CaH 2 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Propagation of a Stress Pulse in a Heterogeneous Elastic Bar

The propagation of a wave pulse due to low-speed impact on a one-dimensional, heterogeneous bar is studied. Due to the dispersive character of the medium, the pulse attenuates as it propagates. This attenuation is studied over propagation distances that are much longer than the size of the microstructure. A homogenized peridynamic material model can be calibrated to reproduce the attenuation and spreading of the wave. The calibration consists of matching the dispersion curve for the heterogeneous material in the limit of long and moderately long wavelengths. It is demonstrated that the peridynamic method reproduces the attenuation of wave pulses predicted by an exact microstructural model over large propagation distances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2019 Computing Sciences Strategic Plan

Computing has transformed nearly every aspect of scientific inquiry — across disciplines and across scales — from the behavior of subatomic particles to the formation of structures in the early universe, from the assembly of the human genome to the evolution of earth systems. Over the past two decades, computing has become an integral part of how Berkeley Lab is “Bringing Science Solutions to the World.” Advances in computing and mathematics have been key, with new mathematical models of complex physical phenomena, new methods for analyzing complex data, new algorithms for accuracy and scaling and sophisticated software systems that encapsulate these techniques into open, reusable tools. The performance of NERSC computers and the ESnet network have grown by several orders of magnitude, along with our understanding of how to map scientific computations and workflows onto these systems. From research to facility operations, the passion, talent and dedication of the Computing Sciences Area staff has been the cornerstone of our success. The plan outlined in this document describes the next step in a journey to expand the influence and impact of our efforts, building an increasingly connected global enterprise for science that places more powerful instruments in the hands of scientists, along with more powerful methods and tools for modeling, analysis and prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Orbital-Free Quantum Simulation Methods for Application to Warm Dense Matter (Final Technical Report)

Predictive simulations for prediction of condensed system behavior in state conditions far from ambient is increasingly crucial to DOE priorities. Warm dense matter (WDM) is the paradigm: temperature T > 1-15 eV, pressures P to 1 Mbar or greater. Experiments under such state conditions are difficult and costly. We summarize work driven by the need and opportunity to make free-energy density functional theory (DFT) as powerful a tool for ab initio simulation of matter under such extreme conditions as ground state DFT is for ordinary matter Advancing orbital-free DFT (OF-DFT) to eliminate the Kohn-Sham (KS) scaling bottleneck in such simulations is the other priority. The concurrent challenge for both goals is the intrinsic complexity of WDM. We summarize 15 years of successes and major progress on (1) free energy exchange-correlation functionals; (2) non-interacting free energy functionals (counterpart to T=0 Kohn-Sham kinetic energy density functionals); (3) rigorous results and constraints for free-energy DFT; (4) software for free energy DFT calculations in both conventional Kohn-Sham and OF-DFT form; (5) de-orbitalization of advanced orbital-dependent ground state functionals for use in OF-DFT; (6) demonstration calculations; (7) ancillary achievements (e.g. major review articles, secondary explorations motivated by primary goals).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine learning approaches for integrating multi-omics data to expand microbiome annotation

Preliminary: This final report corresponds to a grant (DE-SC0021216) that was awarded to the University of Montana. Mid-way through the grant period, I relocated from the University of Montana to the University of Arizona. The grant was ended at University of Montana in late 2022, with all efforts concluding on 08/26/22; the remaining funds supporting the project were relinquished by University of Montana, and were later awarded to University of Arizona under a new grant, with start date 04/01/23. This report focuses on results of research efforts at UMontana through 08/26/22. Results: We made progress in each of the three aims of the proposal. We released software that identifies and fills gaps in the annotation of metabolic proteins within bacterial genomes. We made substantial progress in developing software for alignment-based annotation of protein coding DNA, allowing for coding frameshifts caused by sequencing error. Finally, we made notable progress in developing AI methods (specifically: a neural embedding model) for identifying similarities between protein sequences based on amino-wise latent vectors. These efforts were supplemented by development of methods for protein modeling in support of predicting protein-drug binding activity, and by my leadership of a team in the NIH/DOE 2021 Petabyte-Scale Sequence Search hack-a-thon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Wind Turbine Rotors of the Future: A Research Agenda from the Big Adaptive Rotor Project

This white paper outlines a roadmap to inform future research efforts around the wind turbine rotors of the future. The document is authored by researchers that have been working on the Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) and related initiatives at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. The Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy has been funding BAR since 2018. The learnings from BAR have been documented in dozens of publications. This new paper identifies unresolved critical challenges in wind turbine rotor technology and structures them in four large topic areas: 1. Predictive and validated numerical tools. 2. Design methods and standards. 3. Improvements in manufacturing. 4. Technological innovations. Although wind turbines have not changed in their core architecture, with the market almost entirely dominated by three-bladed upwind rotors, a vast amount of research has allowed to introduce technological innovations resulting in a reduction in levelized cost of energy that made wind competitive with all traditional sources of electricity. Focusing on the rotor, blades will keep following the trend of mass and stiffness reduction, will adopt segmentation, and will keep growing in length, both land-based and offshore. To support this continuous innovation, this white paper argues that research efforts in rotor technology at the national labs are best directed to the first three topic areas and to low technology-readiness-levels (1-3) innovations, leaving the task of implementing higher-TRL (4-9) technological innovations to industry stakeholders. This research roadmap is also well aligned with the upcoming roadmap defined during the International Energy Agency 109th Topical Expert Meeting on the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling Partial Reflection Paths for Infrasound Analysis

Numerical methods enabling simulation of scattered and partially reflected infrasonic propagation paths produced by interaction with fine-scale structure in the middle atmosphere have been implemented in the infraGA ray tracing software. This capability enables simulation of ensonification in the classical stratospheric “shadow zone” that has been observed during the Humming Roadrunner and LSECE surface explosion campaigns as well as in other data sets. In the case of LSECE, a pair of stations roughly 140 kilometers east of the source location observed arrivals with celerities (horizontal group velocities) slightly slower than observed stratospheric paths at similar azimuths. The arrivals exhibited increasing trace velocity later in the wavetrain indicating a steepening of the arrival path for longer or slower propagation paths. Simulation of partially reflected paths using the updated infraGA software methods finds good agreement between observed and predicted infrasonic ensonification at these locations within the stratospheric shadow zone. Further development of the partial reflection physics and comparison with other data sets is needed to more robustly understand how such anomalous infrasonic signals can be predicted; however, the demonstration of this capability is a promising first step in such analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards engineering the growth morphology of anisotropic bicrystals

Eutectic alloys, such as Pb-free Bi-Sn-Ag or Sn-Ag-Cu, are essential for their low melting points in solder joints but suffer from brittle intermetallic phases, reducing reliability. Traditional solder design relies on equilibrium phase diagrams, often neglecting the kinetic influence of crystalline anisotropy during solidification. This study hypothesizes that the energetics at the solid-solid-liquid trijunction dictate crystalline facet selection. Using the Al-Al 3 Ni alloy as a model, this project combines atomistic simulations and experimental methods to understand interfacial energies and develop predictive models. This approach aims to mitigate the negative effects of intermetallics, enhancing component reliability in electronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Replicating Machine Learning Experiments in Materials Science

Transparency and reproducibility are important aspects of validation for Machine Learning (ML) models that are not fully understood and applies independently of the application domain.We offer a case study of reproducibility that highlights the challenges encountered when attempting to reproduce analyzes obtained with Machine Learning methods in materials informatics. Our study explores prediction results obtained with ML models and issues in training data serving as input. We discuss challenges related to theory-driven and numerical errors in training data, lack of reproducibility across platforms and versions, and effects of randomness when varying hyperparameters. In addition to model accuracy, a main metric of interest in the ML community, our results show that model sensitivity may be equally important for applying ML in domain applications such a materials science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ACCRUE—An Integral Index for Measuring Experimental Relevance in Support of Neutronic Model Validation

A key challenge for the introduction of any design changes, e.g., advanced fuel concepts, first-of-a-kind nuclear reactor designs, etc., is the cost of the associated experiments, which are required by law to validate the use of computer models for the various stages, starting from conceptual design, to deployment, licensing, operation, and safety. To achieve that, a criterion is needed to decide on whether a given experiment, past or planned, is relevant to the application of interest. This allows the analyst to select the best experiments for the given application leading to the highest measures of confidence for the computer model predictions. The state-of-the-art methods rely on the concept of similarity or representativity, which is a linear Gaussian-based inner-product metric measuring the angle—as weighted by a prior model parameters covariance matrix—between two gradients, one representing the application and the other a single validation experiment. This manuscript emphasizes the concept of experimental relevance which extends the basic similarity index to account for the value accrued from past experiments and the associated experimental uncertainties, both currently missing from the extant similarity methods. Accounting for multiple experiments is key to the overall experimental cost reduction by prescreening for redundant information from multiple equally-relevant experiments as measured by the basic similarity index. Accounting for experimental uncertainties is also important as it allows one to select between two different experimental setups, thus providing for a quantitative basis for sensor selection and optimization. The proposed metric is denoted by ACCRUE, short for Accumulative Correlation Coefficient for Relevance of Uncertainties in Experimental validation. Using a number of criticality experiments for highly enriched fast metal systems and low enriched thermal compound systems with accident tolerant fuel concept, the manuscript will compare the performance of the ACCRUE and basic similarity indices for prioritizing the relevance of a group of experiments to the given application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CI-MBPT and Intensity-Based Lifetime Calculations for Th II

Lifetime calculations of Th II J = 1.5 and 2.5 odd states are performed with configuration–interaction many-body perturbation theory (CI-MBPT). For many J = 2.5 states, lifetimes are quite accurate, but two pairs of J = 2.5 odd states and many groups of J = 1.5 states are strongly mixed, making theoretical predictions unreliable. To solve this problem, a method based on intensities is used. To relate experimental intensities to lifetimes, two parameters, one an overall coefficient of proportionality for transition rates and one temperature of the Boltzmann distribution of populations, are introduced and fitted to minimize the deviation between theoretical and intensity-derived lifetimes. For strongly mixed groups of states, the averaged lifetimes obtained from averaged transition rates were used instead of individual lifetimes in the fit. Close agreement is obtained. Then intensity branching ratios are used to extract individual lifetimes for the strongly mixed states. The resulting lifetimes are compared to available directly measured lifetimes and reasonable agreement is found, considering limited accuracy of intensity measurements. The method of intensity-based lifetime calculations with fit to theoretical lifetimes is quite general and can be applied to many complex atoms where strong mixing between multiple states exists.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Bounds on Velocity-dependent Dark Matter–Proton Scattering from Milky Way Satellite Abundance

We use the latest measurements of the Milky Way satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1 to infer the most stringent astrophysical bound to date on velocity-dependent interactions between dark matter particles and protons. We model the momentum-transfer cross section as a power law of the relative particle velocity v with a free normalizing amplitude, σ MT = σ 0 v n , to broadly capture the interactions arising within the nonrelativistic effective theory of dark matter–proton scattering. The scattering leads to a momentum and heat transfer between the baryon and dark matter fluids in the early universe, ultimately erasing structure on small physical scales and reducing the abundance of low-mass halos that host dwarf galaxies today. From the consistency of observations with the cold collisionless dark matter paradigm, using a new method that relies on the most robust predictions of the linear perturbation theory, we infer an upper limit on σ0 of 1.4 × 10 -23 , 2.1 × 10 -19 , and 1.0 × 10 -12 cm 2 , for interaction models with n = 2, 4, and 6, respectively, for a dark matter particle mass of 10 MeV. These results improve observational limits on dark matter–proton scattering by orders of magnitude and thus provide an important guide for viable sub-GeV dark matter candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating Cell Temperature Models and the Effect of Wind Speed in PV System Capacity Testing: Preprint

Capacity testing is a routine procedure for assessing a photovoltaic system's performance relative to expectations. The most common test method involves fitting a regression model that predicts system output power using operating weather conditions including wind speed. Structural modifications to the regression model to incorporate wind in different ways improved the model's ability to fit measured system performance, but the observed improvements were small and unlikely to change the result of a capacity test. However, the results showed that the choice of reporting wind speed and inclusion or exclusion of wind speed in the performance model used as the test benchmark can significantly change the test result.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗