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NASA NTRS1999

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the potential predictability of the broad-scale and regional monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. However, for regional monsoons, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1998

Upper Limits of Predictability in Long-Range Climate/Hydrologic Forecasts

The accurate forecasting of el nino or la nina conditions in the tropical Pacific can potentially lead to valuable predictions of hydrological anomalies over land at seasonal to interannual timescales. Even with highly accurate earth system models, though, our ability to generate these continental forecasts will always be limited by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation. The nature of this fundamental limitation is explored through the use of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. In each simulation of the first ensemble, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are given the same realistic interannual variations over a 45-year period, and land surface state is allowed to evolve with that of the atmosphere. Analysis of the results shows that the SSTs control the temporal organization of continental precipitation anomalies to a significant extent in the tropics and to a much smaller extent in midlatitudes. In each simulation of the second ensemble, we prescribe SSTs as before, but we also prescribe interannual variations in the low frequency component of evaporation efficiency over land. Thus, in the second ensemble, we effectively make the extreme assumption that surface boundary conditions across the globe are perfectly predictable, and we quantify the consistency with which the atmosphere (particularly precipitation) responds to these boundary conditions. The resulting "absolute upper limit" on the predictability of precipitation is found to be quite high in the tropics yet only moderate in many midlatitude regions.

Koster, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Signal Prediction With Input Identification

A novel coding technique is presented for signal prediction with applications including speech coding, system identification, and estimation of input excitation. The approach is based on the blind equalization method for speech signal processing in conjunction with the geometric subspace projection theory to formulate the basic prediction equation. The speech-coding problem is often divided into two parts, a linear prediction model and excitation input. The parameter coefficients of the linear predictor and the input excitation are solved simultaneously and recursively by a conventional recursive least-squares algorithm. The excitation input is computed by coding all possible outcomes into a binary codebook. The coefficients of the linear predictor and excitation, and the index of the codebook can then be used to represent the signal. In addition, a variable-frame concept is proposed to block the same excitation signal in sequence in order to reduce the storage size and increase the transmission rate. The results of this work can be easily extended to the problem of disturbance identification. The basic principles are outlined in this report and differences from other existing methods are discussed. Simulations are included to demonstrate the proposed method.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of Two-Equation Turbulence Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer on Film-Cooled Turbine Blades

A three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code has been used to compute the heat transfer coefficient on two film-cooled turbine blades, namely, the VKI rotor with six rows of cooling holes, including three rows on the shower head and the C3X vane with nine rows of holes, including five rows on the shower head. Predictions of heat transfer coefficient at the blade surface using three two-equation turbulence model specifically, Coakley's q-omega model, Chien's k-epsilon model and Wilcox's k-omega model with Menter's modifications, have been compared with the experimental data of Camci and Arts for the VKI rotor, and of Hylton et al. for the C3X vane along with predictions using the Baldwin-Lomar (B-L) model taken from Garg and Gaugler. It is found that for the cases considered here the two equation models predict the blade heat transfer somewhat better than the B-L model except immediately downstream of the film-cooled holes on the suction surface of the VKI rotor, and over most of the suction surface of the C3X vane. However, all two-equation models require 40% more computer core than the B-L model for solution, and while the q-omega and k-epsilon models need 40% more computer time than the B-L model the k-omega model requires at least 65% more time because of the slower rate of convergence. It is found that the heat transfer coefficient exhibit a strong spanwise as well as streamwise variation for both blades and all turbulence models.

Garg, Vijay K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Development of an Empirical Methods for Predicting Jet Mixing Noise of Cold Flow Rectangular Jets

This report presents an empirical method for predicting the jet mixing noise levels of cold flow rectangular jets. The report presents a detailed analysis of the methodology used in development of the prediction method. The empirical correlations used are based on narrow band acoustic data for cold flow rectangular model nozzle tests conducted in the NASA Langley Jet Noise Laboratory. There were 20 separate nozzle test operating conditions. For each operating condition 60 Hz bandwidth microphone measurements were made over a frequency range from 0 to 60,000 Hz. Measurements were performed at 16 polar directivity angles ranging from 45 degrees to 157.5 degrees. At each polar directivity angle, measurements were made at 9 azimuth directivity angles. The report shows the methods employed to remove screech tones and shock noise from the data in order to obtain the jet mixing noise component. The jet mixing noise was defined in terms of one third octave band spectral content, polar and azimuth directivity, and overall power level. Empirical correlations were performed over the range of test conditions to define each of these jet mixing noise parameters as a function of aspect ratio, jet velocity, and polar and azimuth directivity angles. The report presents the method for predicting the overall power level, the average polar directivity, the azimuth directivity and the location and shape of the spectra for jet mixing noise of cold flow rectangular jets.

Russell, James W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coupled Land Atmosphere Predictability

We have designed and executed a set of predictability experiments, designed around the driest and wettest June soil moisture anomalies from a CCM3 simulation forced by observed SST for the period from 1958 through 1998. Each set contains an ensemble of five runs, all begun on June I radiation date. One set of these experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend solely on the initial state of the atmosphere. The other set of experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend sole on the initial state of the land surface. Preliminary analysis of these experiments suggests that the initial atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the surface soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of wet or dry periods. These results suggest that when the atmosphere is inclined to generate dry surface conditions (through reduced moisture availability and increased evaporation) it matters little what initial levels of soil water are at; the soil will rapidly dry out. The ensemble forcing the ensembles with dry soil conditions, but utilizing 'normal' atmospheric conditions show little if any indication of the sharp reduction in soil moisture experienced in the control, indicating that the 'normal' atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of drought. Our work to date has documented the response of surface hydrologic variability, particularly over North America, to atmospheric forcing. While we have seen some suggestion that pre-existing surface anomalies can affect atmospheric circulation over this region, by far the strongest signal is the atmospheric anomalies leading those of soil moisture and surface energy balance changes. This is not an unexpected result since wintertime NA precipitation links to remote atmospheric forcing by ENSO are known to be statistically significant. While warm season links to remote forcing are more tenuous and not well explored, the present results encourage us to examine in more detail the SST forcing from the tropical and North Pacific.

Roads, John↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sonic Boom Prediction Exercise: Experimental Comparisons

The success of a future High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) depends on the ability to accurately assess and, possibly, modify the sonic boom signatures of potential designs. In 1992, the Sonic Boom Steering Committee initiated a prediction exercise to assess the current computational capabilities for the accurate and efficient prediction of sonic boom signatures and loudness levels. A progress report of this effort was given at the Sonic Boom Workshop held at NASA Ames Research Center in 1993 where predictions from CFD and Modified Linear Theory (MLT) methods were given. Comparisons between the methods were made at near-, mid- and far-field locations. However, at that time, experimental data from wind-tunnel tests were not available. The current paper presents a comparison of computational results with the now available experimental data. Further comparisons between the computational methods and analyses of the discrepancies in the results are presented.

Tu, Eugene↗
NASA NTRS1997

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Chen, Dake↗
NASA NTRS2000

Flap Edge Aeroacoustic Measurements and Predictions

An aeroacoustic model test has been conducted to investigate the mechanisms of sound generation on high-lift wing configurations. This paper presents an analysis of flap side-edge noise, which is often the most dominant source. A model of a main element wing section with a half-span flap was tested at low speeds of up to a Mach number of 0.17, corresponding to a wing chord Reynolds number of approximately 1.7 million. Results are presented for flat (or blunt), flanged, and round flap-edge geometries, with and without boundary-layer tripping, deployed at both moderate and high flap angles. The acoustic database is obtained from a Small Aperture Directional Array (SADA) of microphones, which was constructed to electronically steer to different regions of the model and to obtain farfield noise spectra and directivity from these regions. The basic flap-edge aerodynamics is established by static surface pressure data, as well as by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations and simplified edge flow analyses. Distributions of unsteady pressure sensors over the flap allow the noise source regions to be defined and quantified via cross-spectral diagnostics using the SADA output. It is found that shear layer instability and related pressure scatter is the primary noise mechanism. For the flat edge flap, two noise prediction methods based on unsteady-surface-pressure measurements are evaluated and compared to measured noise. One is a new causality spectral approach developed here. The other is a new application of an edge-noise scatter prediction method. The good comparisons for both approaches suggest that much of the physics is captured by the prediction models. Areas of disagreement appear to reveal when the assumed edge noise mechanism does not fully define, the noise production. For the different edge conditions, extensive spectra and directivity are presented. Significantly, for each edge configuration, the spectra for different flow speeds, flap angles, and surface roughness were successfully scaled by utilizing aerodynamic performance and boundary layer scaling method developed herein.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Strip-Yield Model for Predicting the Growth of Part-Through Cracks Under Cyclic Loading

Flaws exist in aircraft structures due to manufacturing operations and material defects. Under variable amplitude cyclic loading, these flaws grow as part-through cracks reducing the residual strength of structural components. To meet damage tolerant design requirements, accurate flaw growth predictions are needed which account for continual changes in crack shape as well as crack growth retardation and acceleration. Predicting the growth of part-through cracks under cyclic loading using an innovative and computationally efficient model is the focus of the research summarized in this report. In this research effort, a slice synthesis methodology was developed and used to construct a modified strip-yield model for the part-through semi-elliptical surface flaw, enabling prediction of plasticity-induced closure along the crack front and subsequent fatigue crack growth under constant amplitude and variable amplitude loading. While modeling the plasticity-induced closure in a part-through flaw may be performed using three dimensional elastic-plastic finite element analysis, this type of effort is impractical from an engineering perspective. A modified strip-yield model similar to that used in FASTRAN for part-through flaws is a much needed engineering design tool, particularly when computational resources are limited.

Daniewicz, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Method Development

Advanced launch systems (e.g., Reusable Launch Vehicle and other Shuttle Class concepts, Rocket-Based Combine Cycle, etc.), and interplanetary vehicles will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion components. The use of CMC is highly desirable to save weight, to improve reuse capability, and to increase performance. CMC candidate applications are mission and cycle dependent and may include turbopump rotors, housings, combustors, nozzle injectors, exit cones or ramps, and throats. For reusable and single mission uses, accurate prediction of life is critical to mission success. The tools to accomplish life prediction are very immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for a variety of space propulsion applications. This paper describes an approach to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system for CMC that addresses mechanical durability due to cyclic and steady thermomechanical loads, and takes into account the impact of environmental degradation.

Levine, Stanley R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Flap Edge Aeroacoustic Measurements and Predictions

An aeroacoustic model test has been conducted to investigate the mechanisms of sound generation on high-lift wing configurations. This paper presents an analysis of flap side-edge noise, which is often the most dominant source. A model of a main element wing section with a half-span flap was tested at low speeds of up to a Mach number of 0.17, corresponding to a wing chord Reynolds number of approximately 1.7 million. Results are presented for flat (or blunt), flanged, and round flap-edge geometries, with and without boundary-layer tripping, deployed at both moderate and high flap angles. The acoustic database is obtained from a Small Aperture Directional Array (SADA) of microphones, which was constructed to electronically steer to different regions of the model and to obtain farfield noise spectra and directivity from these regions. The basic flap-edge aerodynamics is established by static surface pressure data, as well as by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations and simplified edge flow analyses. Distributions of unsteady pressure sensors over the flap allow the noise source regions to be defined and quantified via cross-spectral diagnostics using the SADA output. It is found that shear layer instability and related pressure scatter is the primary noise mechanism. For the flat edge flap, two noise prediction methods based on unsteady surface pressure measurements are evaluated and compared to measured noise. One is a new causality spectral approach developed here. The other is a new application of an edge-noise scatter prediction method. The good comparisons for both approaches suggest that much of the physics is captured by the prediction models. Areas of disagreement appear to reveal when the assumed edge noise mechanism does not fully define the noise production. For the different edge conditions, extensive spectra and directivity are presented. Significantly, for each edge configuration, the spectra for different flow speeds, flap angles, and surface roughness were successfully scaled by utilizing aerodynamic performance and boundary layer scaling methods developed herein.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

Poplawski, Joseph V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Neural Network Prediction of Failure of Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels from Strain Field Data Acquired by a Computer Vision Method

This effort used a new and novel method of acquiring strains called Sub-pixel Digital Video Image Correlation (SDVIC) on impact damaged Kevlar/epoxy filament wound pressure vessels during a proof test. To predict the burst pressure, the hoop strain field distribution around the impact location from three vessels was used to train a neural network. The network was then tested on additional pressure vessels. Several variations on the network were tried. The best results were obtained using a single hidden layer. SDVIC is a fill-field non-contact computer vision technique which provides in-plane deformation and strain data over a load differential. This method was used to determine hoop and axial displacements, hoop and axial linear strains, the in-plane shear strains and rotations in the regions surrounding impact sites in filament wound pressure vessels (FWPV) during proof loading by internal pressurization. The relationship between these deformation measurement values and the remaining life of the pressure vessels, however, requires a complex theoretical model or numerical simulation. Both of these techniques are time consuming and complicated. Previous results using neural network methods had been successful in predicting the burst pressure for graphite/epoxy pressure vessels based upon acoustic emission (AE) measurements in similar tests. The neural network associates the character of the AE amplitude distribution, which depends upon the extent of impact damage, with the burst pressure. Similarly, higher amounts of impact damage are theorized to cause a higher amount of strain concentration in the damage effected zone at a given pressure and result in lower burst pressures. This relationship suggests that a neural network might be able to find an empirical relationship between the SDVIC strain field data and the burst pressure, analogous to the AE method, with greater speed and simplicity than theoretical or finite element modeling. The process of testing SDVIC neural network analysis and some encouraging preliminary results are presented in this paper. Details are given concerning the processing of SDVIC output data such that it may be used as back propagation neural network (BPNN) input data. The software written to perform this processing and the BPNN algorithm are also discussed. It will be shown that, with limited training, test results indicate an average error in burst pressure prediction of approximately six percent,

Russell, Samuel S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Comparison of Predicted and Measured Turbine Vane Rough Surface Heat Transfer

The proposed paper compares predicted turbine vane heat transfer for a rough surface over a wide range of test conditions with experimental data. Predictions were made for the entire vane surface. However, measurements were made only over the suction surface of the vane, and the leading edge region of the pressure surface. Comparisons are shown for a wide range of test conditions. Inlet pressures varied between 3 and 15 psia, and exit Mach numbers ranged between 0.3 and 0.9. Thus, while a single roughened vane was used for the tests, the effective rougness,(k(sup +)), varied by more than a factor of ten. Results were obtained for freestream turbulence levels of 1 and 10%. Heat transfer predictions were obtained using the Navier-Stokes computer code RVCQ3D. Two turbulence models, suitable for rough surface analysis, are incorporated in this code. The Cebeci-Chang roughness model is part of the algebraic turbulence model. The k-omega turbulence model accounts for the effect of roughness in the application of the boundary condition. Roughness causes turbulent flow over the vane surface. Even after accounting for transition, surface roughness significantly increased heat transfer compared to a smooth surface. The k-omega results agreed better with the data than the Cebeci-Chang model. However, the low Reynolds number k-omega model did not accurately account for roughness when the freestream turbulence level was low. The high Reynolds number version of this model was more suitable when the freestream turbulence was low.

Boyle, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Prediction of ECS and SSC Models for Flux-Limited Samples of Gamma-Ray Blazars

The external Compton scattering (ECS) and synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models make distinct predictions for the amount of Doppler boosting of high-energy gamma-rays emitted by Nazar. We examine how these differences affect the predicted properties of active galactic nucleus (AGN) samples selected on the basis of Murray emission. We create simulated flux-limited samples based on the ECS and SSC models, and compare their properties to those of identified EGRET blazars. We find that for small gamma-ray-selected samples, the two models make very similar predictions, and cannot be reliably distinguished. This is primarily due to the fact that not only the Doppler factor, but also the cosmological distance and intrinsic luminosity play a role in determining whether an AGN is included in a flux-limited gamma-ray sample.

Lister, Matthew L.↗