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At least 1,351 records · Page 75
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying the Relative Impact of Model Microphysics Parameterizations and Scattering Models in Simulating Synthetic Radar and Microwave Radiometer Observations

Output from numerical weather models is often used to simulate observations from remote sensing instruments, for purposes ranging from data assimilation, synthetic retrievals of geophysical quantities, and optimization of observing systems. However, when hydrometeors are present, the level of detail provided by the weather model is generally insufficient to fully constrain the input to the radiative transfer model (RTM), and further assumptions must be made by the RTM user in order to produce synthetic observations. Using a hierarchy of models including cloud-resolving, double-moment, bin microphysical, and ice-habit predicting models, along with scattering properties from the OpenSSP, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) databases, as well as relatively simple geometries (e.g., cylindrical plates and columns), we demonstrate the spread in synthetic observation output and the extent to which it is reduced when microphysics is more strongly constrained by the model. As an intermediate step, an error budget for the RTM simulations was derived and from that we developed and will describe best practices for observation simulation (e.g., optimal number of hydrometeor size bins, truncation of the particle size distribution, angular resolution of scattering phase function). Some statistical comparisons with observations will also be presented.

Munchak, S. Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1995

Integrated design and manufacturing for the high speed civil transport (a combined aerodynamics/propulsion optimization study)

This report documents the efforts of a Georgia Tech High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aerospace student design team in completing a design methodology demonstration under NASA's Advanced Design Program (ADP). Aerodynamic and propulsion analyses are integrated into the synthesis code FLOPS in order to improve its prediction accuracy. Executing the integrated product and process development (IPPD) methodology proposed at the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL), an improved sizing process is described followed by a combined aero-propulsion optimization, where the objective function, average yield per revenue passenger mile ($/RPM), is constrained by flight stability, noise, approach speed, and field length restrictions. Primary goals include successful demonstration of the application of the response surface methodolgy (RSM) to parameter design, introduction to higher fidelity disciplinary analysis than normally feasible at the conceptual and early preliminary level, and investigations of relationships between aerodynamic and propulsion design parameters and their effect on the objective function, $/RPM. A unique approach to aircraft synthesis is developed in which statistical methods, specifically design of experiments and the RSM, are used to more efficiently search the design space for optimum configurations. In particular, two uses of these techniques are demonstrated. First, response model equations are formed which represent complex analysis in the form of a regression polynomial. Next, a second regression equation is constructed, not for modeling purposes, but instead for the purpose of optimization at the system level. Such an optimization problem with the given tools normally would be difficult due to the need for hard connections between the various complex codes involved. The statistical methodology presents an alternative and is demonstrated via an example of aerodynamic modeling and planform optimization for a HSCT.

Baecher, Juergen↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Multi-Wavelength Study of the Hot Component of the Interstellar Medium

This research focuses on the kinematics and evolution of the hot phase of the interstellar medium in the Galaxy. The plan was to measure the UV spectra of all hot stars observed with IUE, in order to identify and measure the main component and any high velocity components to the interstellar lines. Collection of data from higher resolution instruments on HST has been proposed for some of the interesting lines of sight. IUE spectra of 240 stars up to 8 kpc in 2 quadrants of the galactic plane have been examined to (1) estimate the total column density per kpc as a function of direction and distance, and (2) to obtain a lower limit to the number of high velocity components to the interstellar lines, thus giving an approximation of the number of conductive interfaces encountered per line of sight. By determining an approximation to the number of components per unit distance we aim to derive statistics on interfaces between hot and cold gas in the Galaxy. We find that 20% of the stars in this sample show at least one high velocity component in the C IV interstellar line. Two successful FUSE programs address this research and collected data for several of the lines of sight identified as locations of hot, expanding gas with the IUE data. One FUSE program is complete for the Vela SNR region. Data from another FUSE program to investigate the Cygnus superbubble region are being analyzed.

Oliversen, Ronald J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A structural-stochastic model for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images

A structural-stochastic image model is developed for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images. The ability of the model to characterize the visual appearance of cloud fields observed by satellite with a limited number of parameters is demonstrated. The model merges structural and stochastic information, the stochastic model acting as a local statistical operator applied to the output of the structural model. The structural or large-scale organization of the scene is retrieved from the two-dimensional Fourier representation of the digital image. The pattern generated by the major Fourier components provides a first guess of the scene. The stochastic aspect is described by a Markov model of texture that assumes a binomial probability distribution for the local grey-level variability. This Markov model provides four parameters that represent the clustering strength in the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. These parameters are estimated by a standard maximum-likelihood technique. The image can be reproduced with a fair degree of verisimilitude from these parameters. The data compression factor is of the order of one hundred to several hundreds.

Garand, L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

DeepSAT: A Deep Learning Approach to Tree-Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery for the Continental United States

High resolution tree cover classification maps are needed to increase the accuracy of current land ecosystem and climate model outputs. Limited studies are in place that demonstrates the state-of-the-art in deriving very high resolution (VHR) tree cover products. In addition, most methods heavily rely on commercial softwares that are difficult to scale given the region of study (e.g. continents to globe). Complexities in present approaches relate to (a) scalability of the algorithm, (b) large image data processing (compute and memory intensive), (c) computational cost, (d) massively parallel architecture, and (e) machine learning automation. In addition, VHR satellite datasets are of the order of terabytes and features extracted from these datasets are of the order of petabytes. In our present study, we have acquired the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset for the Continental United States at a spatial resolution of 1-m. This data comes as image tiles (a total of quarter million image scenes with ~60 million pixels) and has a total size of ~65 terabytes for a single acquisition. Features extracted from the entire dataset would amount to ~8-10 petabytes. In our proposed approach, we have implemented a novel semi-automated machine learning algorithm rooted on the principles of "deep learning" to delineate the percentage of tree cover. Using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) initiative, we have developed an end-to-end architecture by integrating a segmentation module based on Statistical Region Merging, a classification algorithm using Deep Belief Network and a structured prediction algorithm using Conditional Random Fields to integrate the results from the segmentation and classification modules to create per-pixel class labels. The training process is scaled up using the power of GPUs and the prediction is scaled to quarter million NAIP tiles spanning the whole of Continental United States using the NEX HPC supercomputing cluster. An initial pilot over the state of California spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles has produced true positive rates of around 88 percent for fragmented forests and 74 percent for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2 percent for both landscapes.

Imagery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Queuing Theory Approach to Pilot-Controller Coordination for m:N Operations

In recent years, attention and interest by industry and researchers has grown in a control paradigm for remotely piloted aircraft termed “m:N operations.” In an m:N operation, a team of m remote pilots in command (RIPCs) collaboratively manage the flights of N aircraft. A consequence of an m:N concept of operations is that the RPICs will have to switch attention from one aircraft to another and from one task to another. Previous research in m:N operations has focused on the workload experienced by an RPIC and their level of situation awareness on their flights. Researchers have found that RPIC workload and situation awareness are generally sensitive to increasing N, although NASA’s Multi-Vehicle (m:N) Working Group has suggested that the driver of workload/situation awareness is the number of exceptions requiring human intervention as opposed to the value of N itself. In any case, a natural antecedent of workload is task load. In this paper, queueing theory is applied to a 1:N Urban Air Mobility (UAM) air taxi operation in order to estimate pilot task load for managing radio communications with air traffic controllers (ATCs) under increasing N. An M/M/1 queueing system is used to model the RIPC’s servicing of calls and clearance requests (e.g., departure, arrival, or airspace transition) to ATC for the N aircraft. Important parameters for the queueing model are the task arrival rate and the average service time for task completion. Radio communication times from past human-in-the-loop simulation studies are used to measure service times for a 1:4 and 1:12 UAM operation and to interpolate service times for 4 < N < 12. A Monte Carlo method is then employed, using the measured and interpolated service times, to estimate arrival rate and related queueing statistics. The paper concludes by considering the estimated queuing statistics, particularly the RPIC’s utilization (i.e., proportion of time actively servicing tasks), the length of the task queue over time, and the implications for task-balanced system design.

task load↗
NASA NTRS1985

On percolation as a cosmological test

Difficulties in the use of percolation as a complementary statistic for the galaxy clustering pattern are pointed out by studying simple toy models and dynamical N-body models that represent the competing clustering scenarios. The percolation properties are found not to be very sensitive to the presence of pancakes and strings once they are clumpy, and hence they do not distinguish properly between models that are very different. In the case of very smooth pancakes, the ability to percolate depends on sampling parameters, such as the mean number density and the volume, in a way which is unknown a priori because it depends on the same properties that the test ought to measure. This problem could, in principle, be eased by using volume-limited samples of high mean number density (an order of magnitude denser than the CfA redshift survey volume limited at 4000 km/s) and by comparing to models of identical number density and volume. An alternative approach, based on the sampling effects themselves, may provide a qualitative test for pancakes in samples of lower densities.

Dekel, A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extracting galactic structure parameters from multivariated density estimation

Multivariate statistical analysis, including includes cluster analysis (unsupervised classification), discriminant analysis (supervised classification) and principle component analysis (dimensionlity reduction method), and nonparameter density estimation have been successfully used to search for meaningful associations in the 5-dimensional space of observables between observed points and the sets of simulated points generated from a synthetic approach of galaxy modelling. These methodologies can be applied as the new tools to obtain information about hidden structure otherwise unrecognizable, and place important constraints on the space distribution of various stellar populations in the Milky Way. In this paper, we concentrate on illustrating how to use nonparameter density estimation to substitute for the true densities in both of the simulating sample and real sample in the five-dimensional space. In order to fit model predicted densities to reality, we derive a set of equations which include n lines (where n is the total number of observed points) and m (where m: the numbers of predefined groups) unknown parameters. A least-square estimation will allow us to determine the density law of different groups and components in the Galaxy. The output from our software, which can be used in many research fields, will also give out the systematic error between the model and the observation by a Bayes rule.

Chen, B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

USAID↗
NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic process approximation for recursive estimation with guaranteed bound on the error covariance

An approach, is proposed for the design of approximate, fixed order, discrete time realizations of stochastic processes from the output covariance over a finite time interval, was proposed. No restrictive assumptions are imposed on the process; it can be nonstationary and lead to a high dimension realization. Classes of fixed order models are defined, having the joint covariance matrix of the combined vector of the outputs in the interval of definition greater or equal than the process covariance; (the difference matrix is nonnegative definite). The design is achieved by minimizing, in one of those classes, a measure of the approximation between the model and the process evaluated by the trace of the difference of the respective covariance matrices. Models belonging to these classes have the notable property that, under the same measurement system and estimator structure, the output estimation error covariance matrix computed on the model is an upper bound of the corresponding covariance on the real process. An application of the approach is illustrated by the modeling of random meteorological wind profiles from the statistical analysis of historical data.

Menga, G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Legacy of Space Shuttle Flight Software

The initial goals of the Space Shuttle Program required that the avionics and software systems blaze new trails in advancing avionics system technology. Many of the requirements placed on avionics and software were accomplished for the first time on this program. Examples include comprehensive digital fly-by-wire technology, use of a digital databus for flight critical functions, fail operational/fail safe requirements, complex automated redundancy management, and the use of a high-order software language for flight software development. In order to meet the operational and safety goals of the program, the Space Shuttle software had to be extremely high quality, reliable, robust, reconfigurable and maintainable. To achieve this, the software development team evolved a software process focused on continuous process improvement and defect elimination that consistently produced highly predictable and top quality results, providing software managers the confidence needed to sign each Certificate of Flight Readiness (COFR). This process, which has been appraised at Capability Maturity Model (CMM)/Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Level 5, has resulted in one of the lowest software defect rates in the industry. This paper will present an overview of the evolution of the Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) project and processes over thirty years, an argument for strong statistical control of software processes with examples, an overview of the success story for identifying and driving out errors before flight, a case study of the few significant software issues and how they were either identified before flight or slipped through the process onto a flight vehicle, and identification of the valuable lessons learned over the life of the project.

Hickey, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Power Spectrum of Uplink Array Signals with Random Phase and Delay Errors

Link Array signals emanating from different antennas must be compensated for Doppler and delay in order to achieve the N(sup 2) array gain predicted by theory. However compensation is never perfect, leaving residual errors that cause losses in array gain and degradation in signal quality. Here we develop a mathematical model for Uplink Array signals in the presence of phase and delay errors, similar to well-known multipath analyses but with features unique to this problem. The resulting losses and distortions are described, and the power spectral density of the array signal derived first conditioned on a given error vector, then averaged over distributions deemed suitable for Uplink Array applications. The impact of phase and delay errors on array gain and signal distortion are addressed, and the maximum data throughput is quantified in terms of the assumed error statistics.

uplinks arrays↗
NASA NTRS1976

Test particle propagation in magnetostatic turbulence. 2: The local approximation method

An approximation method for statistical mechanics is presented and applied to a class of problems which contains a test particle propagation problem. All of the available basic equations used in statistical mechanics are cast in the form of a single equation which is integrodifferential in time and which is then used as the starting point for the construction of the local approximation method. Simplification of the integrodifferential equation is achieved through approximation to the Laplace transform of its kernel. The approximation is valid near the origin in the Laplace space and is based on the assumption of small Laplace variable. No other small parameter is necessary for the construction of this approximation method. The n'th level of approximation is constructed formally, and the first five levels of approximation are calculated explicitly. It is shown that each level of approximation is governed by an inhomogeneous partial differential equation in time with time independent operator coefficients. The order in time of these partial differential equations is found to increase as n does. At n = 0 the most local first order partial differential equation which governs the Markovian limit is regained.

Klimas, A. J.↗