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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Satellite observation and mesoscale cloud modeling of St. Anthony, Minnesota storm clouds

Both rawinsonde data and geosynchronous satellite imagery were used to study the life cycles of St. Anthony, Minnesota's severe convective storms. Cloud modeling, with input sounding data from Saint Cloud, Minnesota, and rapid-scan imagery from GOES were used to investigate storm cloud formation, development and dissipation. Comparisons were made among the seven groups of severe storms which produced an outbreak of 30 tornadoes across the United States.

Hung, R. J.↗

Radon-222 as a test of convective transport in a general circulation model

A three-dimensional tracer model based on the Goddard Institude of Space Studies GCM is used to simulate the distribution of Rn-222 over North America to test the ability of the model to describe the transport of pollutants in the boundary layer and the exchange of mass between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The model results are compared with surface observations from five sites in the U.S., showing that Rn-222 concentrations are primarily regulated by dry convection. The simulations show satisfactory agreement with observations although the model underpredicts observations at night and the simulated Rn-222 concentrations over the northeastern U.S. are too high in the spring and too low in the fall.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

Observations on practical turbulence modeling for high-speed jet/plume flowfields

An overview is presented of the current status in terms of simulating basic high-speed/straightback free jet flowfields with two-equation turbulence models. A building-block approach is described which provides a systematic method of calibrating such turbulence models. Data to support this approach focuses on obtaining turbulence modeling capabilities to reproduce basic mean flow structure for simple flows before progressing to more complex problems. For transverse jets and wall jets, new building-blocks of data are necessary with turbulence modeling capabilities unifying the free jet building-blocks discussed, and fundamental boundary layer and shock/boundary layer interaction building-blocks resulting from other studies.

Dash, Sanford M.↗

Gamma-ray bursts; Proceedings of the Workshop, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, Oct. 16-18, 1991

Recent developments in gamma-ray burst research are discussed with emphasis on new observations of gamma-ray bursts made by the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory, Granat, Ginga, Pioneer Venus Orbiter, Prognoz, and Phobos. The papers are grouped under the following headings: general, historical, recent spacecraft observations; spatial and intensity distributions; galactic and extragalactic models; spectral observations; time profiles; and search for counterparts. Specific topics discussed include an upper limit on the luminosity of cosmological gamma-ray bursts; low-mass X-ray binaries and gamma-ray bursts; spectral evolution of gamma-ray bursts; ionization of gamma-ray-burst environments; and BATSE observations of bremsstrahlung from electron precipitation events.

Paciesas, William S.↗

Measuring rapid ocean tidal earth orientation variations with very long baseline interferometry

Ocean tidal effects on universal time and polar motion (UTPM) are investigated at four nearly diurnal (K(sub 1), P(sub 1), O(sub 1), and Q(sub 1)) and four nearly semidiurnal (K(sub 2), S(sub 2), M(sub 2), and N(sub 2)) frequencies by analyzing very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data extending from 1978 to 1992. We discuss limitations of comparisons between experiment and theory for the retograde nearly diurnal polar motion components due to their degeneracy with prograde components of the nutation model. Estimating amplitudes of contributions to the modeled VLBI observables at these eight frequencies produces a statistically highly significant improvement of 7 mm to the residuals of a fit to the observed delays. Use of such an improved UTPM model also reduces the 14-30 mm scatter of baseline lengths about a time-linear model of tectonic motion by 3-14 mm, also withhigh significance levels. A total of 28 UTPM ocean tidal amplitudes can be unambiguously estimated from the data, with resulting UTI and PM magnitudes as large as 21 micro secs and 270 microarc seconds and formal uncertainties of the order of 0.3 micro secs and 5 microarc secs for UTI and PM, respectively. Empirically determined UTPM amplitudes and phases are com1pared to values calculated theoretically by Gross from Seiler's global ocean tide model. The discrepancy between theory and experiment is larger by a factor of 3 for UTI amplitudes (9 micro secs) than for prograde PM amplitudes (42 microarc secs). The 14-year VLBI data span strongly attenuates the influence of mismodeled effects on estimated UTPM amplitudes and phases that are not coherent with the eight frequencies of interest. Magnitudes of coherent and quasi-coherent systematic errors are quantified by means of internal consistency tests. We conclude that coherent systematic effects are many times larger than the formal uncertainties and can be as large as 4 micro secs for UTI and 60 microarc secs for polar motion. On the basis of such ealistic error estimates, 22 of the 31 fitted UTPM ocean tidal amplitudes differ from zero by more than 2 sigma.

Sovers, O. J.↗

Higher-order ionospheric effects on the GPS observables and means of modeling them

Based on relaistic modeling of the electron density of the ionosphere and using a dipole moment approximation for the earth magnetic field, we are able to estimate the effect of the ionosphere on the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) signal for a ground user. The lowest-order (1/f(exp 2)) effect, which is of the order of .1 - 30 meters of zenith group delay, is subtracted out by forming a linear combination of the dual frequencies of the GPS signal. One is left with second- (1/f(exp 3)) and third-order (1/f(exp 4)) effects which are estimated typically to be approximately 0 - 2 cm, and approximately 0 - 2 mm at zenith respectively, depending on the time of day, time of year, the solar cycle and the relative geometry of the magnetic field and the line of sight. Given the total electron content along a line of sight, we derive an approximation to the second-order term which is accurate to approximately 90% within the magnetic dipole moment model; this approximation can be used to reduce the second-order term to the millimeter level, thus potentially improving precise positioning in space and on the ground. The induced group delay, or phase advance, due to second- and third-order effects are examined for two ground receivers located at equatorial and mid-latitude regions tracking several GPS satellites.

Bassiri, Sassan↗

Analysis and Modeling of Coronal Holes Observed by CORONAS-1: Morphology and Magnetic Field Configuration - 1

Two low-latitude coronal holes observed by CORONAS-1 in April and June 1994 are analyzed together with magnetic field measurements obtained from Wilcox and Kitt Peak Solar Observatories. To estimate the comparable temperature of these two coronal holes, the YOHKOH observations are also utilized. Using this information, we have constructed three-dimensional magnetic field lines to illustrate the geometrical configuration of these coronal holes. The calculated synoptic maps are used to determine the existence of closed and open field regions of the hole. Finally, we have correlated the characteristics of two coronal holes with observed solar wind speed. We found that the brighter coronal hole has high speed solar wind, and the dimmer coronal hole has low speed solar wind.

Obridko, Vladmir↗

An Integrated Modeling Study for Coordinated Observations of H, O, OH, and H2O(+) Emissions in the Coma and Ion Tail of the Comet Hale-Bopp

This project has two overall objectives. One objective is to advance our general understanding of both the comet neutral atmosphere and the cometary plasma in the atmosphere and ion tall. The other objective is to obtain specific key information about comet Hale-Bopp that is generally important for Hale-Bopp studies. The primary emphasis in this project is to analyze, in a self-consistent manner, excellent quality high resolution image and line profile observations obtained by the University of Wisconsin for H, O, OH, and H2O+ emissions from the inner coma, outer coma, and ion tail of Hale-Bopp. The information on the spatial and velocity distributions of H2O neutral and ionized photo-products in the inner coma, outer coma, and in the H2O+ ion tail is of substantial and direct importance in the development of an integrated understanding of the complex structure and dynamics of the neutral and plasma species in the atmosphere of Hale-Bopp in particular and comets in general. The H2O production rate of Hale-Bopp is determined and, together with the other information related to the structure and dynamics of the neutral and plasma atmospheres obtained in this study, provide critical information important for a wide variety of research conducted by other groups.

Smyth, William H.↗

Automated Decomposition of Model-based Learning Problems

A new generation of sensor rich, massively distributed autonomous systems is being developed that has the potential for unprecedented performance, such as smart buildings, reconfigurable factories, adaptive traffic systems and remote earth ecosystem monitoring. To achieve high performance these massive systems will need to accurately model themselves and their environment from sensor information. Accomplishing this on a grand scale requires automating the art of large-scale modeling. This paper presents a formalization of [\em decompositional model-based learning (DML)], a method developed by observing a modeler's expertise at decomposing large scale model estimation tasks. The method exploits a striking analogy between learning and consistency-based diagnosis. Moriarty, an implementation of DML, has been applied to thermal modeling of a smart building, demonstrating a significant improvement in learning rate.

Williams, Brian C.↗

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Putnam, WilliamM.↗

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

Clune, Thomas L.↗

Kinetic Damage from Meteorites

A Near Earth object impacting into Earth's atmosphere may produce damaging effects at the surface due to airblast, thermal pulse, or kinetic impact in the form of meteorites. At large sizes (greater than many tens of meters), the damage is amplified by the hypersonic impact of these large projectiles moving with cosmic velocity, leaving explosively produced craters. However, much more common is simple "kinetic" damage caused by the impact of smaller meteorites moving at terminal speeds. As of this date a handful of instances are definitively known of people or structures being directly hit and/or damaged by the kinetic impact of meteorites. Meteorites known to have struck humans include the Sylacauga, Alabama fall (1954) and the Mbale meteorite fall (1992). Much more common is kinetic meteorite damage to cars, buildings, and even a post box (Claxton, Georgia - 1984). Historical accounts indicate that direct kinetic damage by meteorites may be more common than recent accounts suggest (Yau et al., 1994). In this talk we will examine the contemporary meteorite flux and estimate the frequency of kinetic damage to various structures, as well as how the meteorite flux might affect the rate of human casualties. This will update an earlier study by Halliday et al (1985), adding variations expected in meteorite flux with latitude (Le Feuvre and Wieczorek, 2008) and validating these model predictions of speed and entry angle with observations from the NASA and SOMN fireball networks. In particular, we explore the physical characteristics of bright meteors which may be used as a diagnostic for estimating which fireballs produce meteorites and hence how early warning of such kinetic damage may be estimated in advance through observations and modeling.

Cooke, William↗

Kinetic Damage from Meteorites

A Near Earth object impacting into Earth's atmosphere may produce damaging effects at the surface due to airblast, thermal pulse, or kinetic impact in the form of meteorites. At large sizes (>many tens of meters), the damage is amplified by the hypersonic impact of these large projectiles moving with cosmic velocity, leaving explosively produced craters. However, much more common is simple "kinetic" damage caused by the impact of smaller meteorites moving at terminal speeds. As of this date a handful of instances are definitively known of people or structures being directly hit and/or damaged by the kinetic impact of meteorites. Meteorites known to have struck humans include the Sylacauga, Alabama fall (1954) and the Mbale meteorite fall (1992). Much more common is kinetic meteorite damage to cars, buildings, and even a post box (Claxton, Georgia - 1984). Historical accounts indicate that direct kinetic damage by meteorites may be more common than recent accounts suggest (Yau et al., 1994). In this talk we will examine the contemporary meteorite flux and estimate the frequency of kinetic damage to various structures, as well as how the meteorite flux might affect the rate of human casualties. This will update an earlier study by Halliday et al (1985), adding variations expected in meteorite flux with latitude (Le Feuvre and Wieczorek, 2008) and validating these model predictions of speed and entry angle with observations from the NASA and SOMN fireball networks. In particular, we explore the physical characteristics of bright meteors which may be used as a diagnostic for estimating which fireballs produce meteorites and hence how early warning of such kinetic damage may be estimated in advance through observations and modelling.

Cooke, William↗

Stationary Planetary Waves in Northern Late Winter: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

Mars reveals similar, yet also rather different, atmospheric circulation patterns compared to those on Earth. In both atmospheres, solar differential heating drives global Hadley circulation cells. However during solstice on Mars, its Hadley cells are hemispherically asymmetric: an intense, deep, cross-hemisphere single cell dominates with rising motion in the summer hemisphere and sinking motion in the winter hemisphere. Both planets also exhibit thermally indirect (i.e., eddy-driven) Ferrel circulation cells in middle and high latitudes. In addition, Earth and Mars exhibit distinctive large-scale orography and, in a broadly defined context, continentality. For Mars’ northern midlatitudes, Tharsis in the western hemisphere, and Arabia Terra and Elysium in the eastern hemisphere, are the primary large-scale topographic features. In the southern-midlatitudes, Tharsis and Argyre in the western hemisphere, and Hellas in the eastern hemisphere are the key topographic features which can influence large-scale circulation patterns. Such underlying orographic complexes not only cause significant latitudinal excursions of the seasonal mean westerly circumnavigating polar vortex but also significantly modulate the intensity and preferred geographic regions of traveling baroclinic weather systems.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

Higher-Order Ionospheric Effects on the GPS Observables and Means of Modeling Them

Based on realistic modeling of the electron density of the ionosphere and using a dipole moment approximation for the earth magnetic field, we are able to estimate the effect of the ionosphere on the GPS signal for a ground user. Our study implies reduction of the second-order ionospheric error to less than 2 mm on the average and, therefore, potential improvement of orbit determination and baseline solutions.

ionosphere↗