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An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Refinement and Exploration

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Phobos: Simulation-Driven Design for Exploration

Dr. Edwin "Zack" Crues presented an overview of the current use of modeling and simulation technologies by the NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) team in investigating the spacecraft and missions for the human exploration of Mars' moon Phobos.

Crues, Edwin↗

Optimal Network Topology for Node-Breaker Representations With AC Power Flow Constraints

It has been demonstrated that network topology optimization (NTO) may change the topology of power system networks, and consequently, provide additional flexibility to reduce network congestion and violations. Most NTO problems are formulated based on the bus-branch model in which it is challenging to represent a realistic picture of all substation configurations. In this paper, we explore advantages of substation reconfiguration modeling based on node-breaker representations for NTO problem with full nonlinear alternating current power flow. It also proposes a tailored solution algorithm to solve this nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programming through the outer approximation method. The proposed solution approach iterates between a mixed-integer linear programming and a nonlinear subproblem. Additional enhancements to further accelerate the iteration process are illustrated. Numerical case studies demonstrate the relative economic and operational impact of optimal network topology with node-breaker representations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dark C P violation and gauged lepton or baryon number for electroweak baryogenesis

We explore the generation of the baryon asymmetry in an extension of the standard model where the lepton number is promoted to a U(1)ℓ gauge symmetry with an associated Z' gauge boson. This is based on a novel electroweak baryogenesis mechanism first proposed by us in Ref. Extra fermionic degrees of freedom, including a fermionic dark matter χ, are introduced in the dark sector for anomaly cancellation. The lepton number is spontaneously broken at high scale and the effective theory, containing the standard model, the Z', the fermionic dark matter, and an additional complex scalar field S, violates CP in the dark sector. The complex scalar field couples to the Higgs portal and is essential in enabling a strong first order phase transition. Dark CP violation is diffused in front of the bubble walls and creates a chiral asymmetry for χ, which in turn creates a chemical potential for the standard model leptons. Weak sphalerons are then in charge of transforming the net lepton charge asymmetry into net baryon number. We explore the model phenomenology related to the leptophilic Z', the dark matter candidate, the Higgs boson, and the additional scalar, as well as implications for electric dipole moments. We also discuss the case when baryon number U(1)B is promoted to a gauge symmetry, and discuss electroweak baryogenesis and its corresponding phenomenology.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA HECC Geometry and Performance Review Part 2: Geometric Differences Between the As-Manufactured and Design-Intent Impeller Geometry and their Effects on the Vaneless Diffuser Configuration Performance

An investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) vaneless diffuser configuration was performed. This multipart investigation focused on validating the computational model against experimental data. The validated model was then used to explore the effects of observed geometric differences between the As-Manufactured and Design-Intent impellers. Lastly, the validated model was used for comparison against an experimental tip clearance study. Part II of the investigation of the NASA HECC vaneless diffuser configuration focused on understanding the differences in geometry and performance between the As-Manufactured impeller and the Design-Intent impeller. This was achieved through comparison of the As-Manufactured HECC vaneless computational model, developed from the solid model of the impeller and validated in Part I, against a new model developed from the Design-Intent blade sections published in NASA/CR-2014-218114/Rev1. The 1D performance values showed that the As-Manufactured impeller underperformed compared to the Design-Intent for all four speedlines that were simulated. Further investigation of profiles, loading and contours showed consistent underperformance of the As-Manufactured relative to the Design-Intent. An investigation into the source of the performance differences led to the discovery of several significant variations in the impeller geometries. The differences that were observed can be summarized into four categories: fillets, trailing-edge exit radii variation, dissimilarity in the splitter leading-edge geometry and main blade thickness differences. The investigation then shifted its effort to quantify the performance effects caused by geometric differences. The investigation showed that out of the four geometric differences that were explored, the differences in the splitter blade had the largest impact. These differences most notably changed flow physics near the splitter leading edge, especially near the tip of the impeller.

centrifugal compressor↗

NASA HECC Geometry and Performance Review Part 2: Geometric Differences Between the as-Manufactured and Design-Intent Impeller Geometry and Their Effects on the Vaneless Diffuser Configuration Performance

An investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) vaneless diffuser configuration was performed. This multipart investigation focused on validating the computational model against experimental data. The validated model was then used to explore the effects of observed geometric differences between the as-manufactured and design-intent impellers. Lastly, the validated model was used for comparison against an experimental tip clearance study. Details regarding each of the parts are detailed below: This second part of a multipart investigation of the NASA HECC vaneless diffuser configuration focused on the comparison of the as-manufactured HECC vaneless computational model validated in Part I against a new model that used the same grid and solver settings but replaced the impeller section data with the design-intent sections from NASA/CR-2014-218114/Rev1. The 1D performance values showed that the as-manufactured impeller underperformed compared to the design-intent for all four speedlines that were simulated. Further investigation of radial profiles, loading and contours showed consistent underperformance of the as-manufactured. An investigation into the source of the difference led to the discovery of several geometric differences in the two impellers of magnitudes that could not be explained outside of manufacturing. The differences that were observed can be summarized into four categories: fillets, TE exit radius differences, splitter LE differences and main blade thickness differences. The investigation then shifted to attempting to isolate the geometric differences as best as possible and to understand their contribution to the observed underperformance. The investigation showed that out of the four geometric differences that were explored, the differences in the splitter blade had the largest effect.

centrifugal compressor↗

EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations

This paper presents a new solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) flux model for aeronomic calulations (EUVAC), which is based on the measured F74113 solar EUV reference spectrum. The model provides fluxes in the 37 wavelength bins that are in widespread use. This paper also presents cross sections to be used with the EUVAC flux model to calculate photoionization rates. The flux scaling for solar activity is accomplished using a proxy-based on the F10.7 index and its 81-day average together with the measured solar flux variation from the EUVS instrument on the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite. This new model produces 50-575 A integrated EUV fluxes in good agreement with rocket observations. The solar cycle variation of the chromospheric fluxes agrees well with the measured variation of the Lyman alpha flux between 1982 and 1988. In addition, the theoretical photoelectron fluxes, calculated using the new EUV flux model, are in good agreement with the solar minimum photoelectron fluxes from the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite and also with the solar maximum photoelectron fluxes from the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Its relative simplicity coupled with its ability to reproduce the 50-575 A solar EUV flux as well as the measured photoelectron spectrum makes the model well suited for aeronomic applications. However, EUVAC is not designed to accurately predict the solar flux variability for numerous individual lines.

Richards, P. G.↗

Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

Over the last few years, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been generating a 1-km sea surface temperature (SST) composite derived from retrievals of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for use in operational diagnostics and regional model initialization. With the assumption that the day-to-day variation in the SST is nominal, individual MODIS passes aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Terra satellites are used to create and update four composite SST products each day at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, valid over the western Atlantic and Caribbean waters. A six month study from February to August 2007 over the marine areas surrounding southern Florida was conducted to compare the use of the MODIS SST composite versus the Real-Time Global SST analysis to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Substantial changes in the forecast heat fluxes were seen at times in the marine boundary layer, but relatively little overall improvement was measured in the sensible weather elements. The limited improvement in the WRF model forecasts could be attributed to the diurnal changes in SST seen in the MODIS SST composites but not accounted for by the model. Furthermore, cloud contamination caused extended periods when individual passes of MODIS were unable to update the SSTs, leading to substantial SST latency and a cool bias during the early summer months. In order to alleviate the latency problems, the SPoRT Center recently enhanced its MODIS SST composite by incorporating information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) instruments as well as the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis. These enhancements substantially decreased the latency due to cloud cover and improved the bias and correlation of the composites at available marine point observations. While these enhancements improved upon the modeled cold bias using the original MODIS SSTs, the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

Schiferl, Luke D.↗

Plasmasphere-ionosphere coupling. II - Ion composition measurements at plasmaspheric and ionospheric altitudes and comparison with modeling results

This paper presents Dynamic Explorer data on the plasma coupling between the plasmasphere and ionosphere. DE 1 measurements of ion composition and temperatures at 1.4-3.5 R(F) in the plasmasphere were combined with DE-2 measurements of ion composition and electron and ion temperatures in the upper F region/topside ionosphere, closely spaced in universal and local time for cases in the November 6-11, 1981 period. The observations are compared directly with the field-line interhemispheric plasma (FLIP) model calculations of altitudinal ion density and temperature profiles. It was found that, when the FLIP model permitted fractional trapping of ionospheric photoelectrons and consequent plasmaspheric heating, good agreement with the observations was obtained.

Horwitz, J. L.↗

Mobility Data and Models Informing Smart Cities

This presentation explores the interactions of Emerging Technology, Changing Urban Environments, and Urban Travel Behavior on Mobility and Energy Impacts. Key findings include quantifying impacts of emerging mobility, access and infrastructure associated with new mobility choices and services in urban areas. The results demonstrate new data collection methods and capabilities to understand and identify key levers to improve energy productivity of future mobility systems and of quickly evolving MaaS and COVID-19 contexts to monitor rapidly shifting urban mobility patterns. Under development are mode choice models for new modes versus traditional modes. Initial estimates are developed on the potential of workforce mobility strategies in shaping future energy-efficient mobility system impacts. For mode replacement and workforce mobility, this presentation offers observability into the changes in number of transactions per mode, after ride-hailing/TNC/MaaS introduction and in origins of workforce to enable user need-driven reimagining of efficient mobility systems: Seattle (SEA-TAC) airport: for every 100 new TNC transactions for ground transportation, ~27% replaced transit, 35% replaced parking, 17% replaced car rentals, and 21% replaced taxis. Similarly, at Denver International (DEN), ride-hailing transactions replaced transit, parking, car rental and taxis at a rate of 34.7%, 39.0%, 16.6%, and 9.7%, respectively. A workforce mobility tool, analysis/visualization techniques, and capabilities to understand and identify key job commute needs, new choices in access to job opportunities, and affordability aspects as levers to improve energy productivity of future integrated urban mobility systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Exploring new physics with O(keV) electron recoils in direct detection experiments

Motivated by the recent XENON 1T results, we explore various new physics models that can be discovered through searches for electron recoils in O(keV)-threshold direct-detection experiments. First, we consider the absorption of axion-like particles, dark photons, and scalars, either as dark matter relics or being produced directly in the Sun. In the latter case, we find that keV mass bosons produced in the Sun provide an adequate fit to the data but are excluded by stellar cooling constraints. We address this tension by introducing a novel Chameleon-like axion model, which can explain the excess while evading the stellar bounds. We find that absorption of bosonic dark matter provides a viable explanation for the excess only if the dark matter is a dark photon or an axion. In the latter case, photophobic axion couplings are necessary to avoid X-ray constraints. Second, we analyze models of dark matter-electron scattering to determine which models might explain the excess. Standard scattering of dark matter with electrons is generically in conflict with data from lower-threshold experiments. Momentum-dependent interactions with a heavy mediator can fit the data with dark matter mass heavier than a GeV but are generically in tension with collider constraints. Next, we consider dark matter consisting of two (or more) states that have a small mass splitting. The exothermic (down)scattering of the heavier state to the lighter state can fit the data for keV mass splittings. Finally, we consider a subcomponent of dark matter that is accelerated by scattering off cosmic rays, finding that dark matter interacting though an O(100 keV)-mass mediator can fit the data. The cross sections required in this scenario are, however, typically challenged by complementary probes of the light mediator. Throughout our study, we implement an unbinned Monte Carlo analysis and use an improved energy reconstruction of the XENON 1T events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The importance of flavor in SMEFT Electroweak Precision Fits

Effective field theory tools are essential for exploring non-Standard Model physics at the LHC in the absence of the discovery of new light particles. Predictions for observables are typically made at the lowest order in the QCD and electroweak expansions in the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT) and often ignore the effects of flavor. Here, we present results for electroweak precision observables (EWPOs) at the next-to-leading order QCD and electroweak expansions (NLO) of the SMEFT with an arbitrary flavor structure for the fermion operators. Numerical NLO SMEFT fits to EWPOs have a strong dependence on the assumed flavor structures and we demonstrate this using various popular assumptions for flavor symmetries.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the competition between mixing rate and uniformity in a coaxial hydrodynamic focusing mixer

Fast microfluidic mixers for use with line-of-sight integrating detection schemes pose unique challenges. Such detectors typically cannot discriminate signal from slow moving (e.g. near internal walls) and fast-moving portions of the fluid stream. This convolves reaction rate dynamics with fluid flow residence time dynamics. Further, the small cross sections of typical three-dimensional hydrodynamic focusing devices lead to lower detection signals. The current study focuses on achieving both small time scales of mixing and homogenous residence times. This is achieved by injecting sample through a center capillary and hydrodynamically focusing using a sheath flow within a tapered second capillary. The current design also features a third, larger coaxial capillary. The mixed stream flows into the large cross-section of this third capillary to decelerate and expand the stream by up to 14-fold to improve line-of-sight signal strength of reaction products. Hydrodynamic focusing, mixing, and expansion are studied using analytical and numerical models and also studied experimentally using a fluorescein-iodide quenching reaction. The experimentally validated models are used to explore trade-offs between mixing rate and uniformity. For the first time, this work presents detailed analysis of the Lagrangian time history of species transport during mixing inside coaxial capillaries to measure mixing nonuniformity. The mixing region enables order 100 μs mixing times and residence time widths of the same order (140 μs).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Semi-automatic image annotation using 3D LiDAR projections and depth camera data

Efficient image annotation is necessary to utilize deep learning object recognition neural networks in nuclear safeguards, such as for the detection and localization of target objects like nuclear material containers (NMCs). This capability can help automate the inventory accounting of different types of NMCs within nuclear storage facilities. The conventional manual annotation process is labor-intensive and time-consuming, hindering the rapid deployment of deep learning models for NMC identifications. This paper introduces a novel semi-automatic method for annotating 2D images of nuclear material containers (NMCs) by combining 3D light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data with color and depth camera images collected from a handheld scan system. The annotation pipeline involves an operator manually marking new target objects on a LiDAR-generated map, and projecting these 3D locations to images, thereby automatically creating annotations from the projections. The semi-automatic approach significantly reduces manual efforts and the expertise in image annotation that is required to perform the task, allowing deep learning models to be trained on-site within a few hours. The paper compares the performance of models trained on datasets annotated through various methods, including semi-automatic, manual, and commercial annotation services. The evaluation demonstrates that the semi-automatic annotation method achieves comparable or superior results, with a mean average precision (mAP) above 0.9, showcasing its efficiency in training object recognition models. Additionally, the paper explores the application of the proposed method to instance segmentation, achieving promising results in detecting multiple types of NMCs in various formations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Leaching Model of Radionuclides in Metal-Organic Framework Particles

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have been used to sequester radionuclides and seal them inside of porous scaffolds using postsynthetic modification procedures. Experiments show that certain Zr-MOF with different capping linkers significantly affects the radionuclide release kinetics. In this work, we developed a leaching model of radionuclides in Zr-MOF particles. The model assumes that uranyl species occupy two energetically favored sites: the metal node and the MOF pores. For a given overall concentration of uranyl species, the partitions of uranyl species at the metal nodes and within the pores are determined by their chemical potentials. The model also considers the effect of particle surface and concentration on chemical potentials and diffusivity. The effects of spatial and structural dependent chemical potentials and diffusivity as well as particle sizes on leaching kinetics are investigated with the model. Predicted and measured uranyl leaching kinetics in Zr-MOF particles under batch experiments are compared. The results demonstrate the model’s capability for exploring the mechanisms of leaching and provide guidance for material design.

Metal-Organic Framework, Diffusion, uranyl, Leachi↗

Natural fibers as promising core materials of vacuum insulation panels

To reduce energy consumption in buildings, this paper investigates the feasibility of using natural fibers as cost-effective, environmentally sustainable core materials for vacuum insulation panels (VIPs). First, a comprehensive experimental study was conducted for 10 potential natural fiber candidates. The thermal conductivities of the 10 natural fiber mats at various vacuum pressures were measured; their compression and morphology properties were quantified. In addition, an analytical model was used to explore the major factors that influence the thermal conductivity of natural fibers as a function of internal air pressure. Results show that recycled cotton, kapok, and bamboo fibers are ideal candidates for VIP core materials; at <0.05 Pa, their thermal conductivities varied between 2 and 4 mW/(m∙K). Furthermore, for some fibers, thermal conductivity was inversely proportional to fiber density. For the selection of fiber materials for VIP cores, the ideal fiber candidate has a small fiber diameter and a low fiber mat density. Based on thermal measurements, even though the internal air pressure of 5 Pa was enough to attain the minimum thermal conductivity, obtaining internal air pressure below 5 Pa is recommended for prolonged service life, considering small leaks of VIP package barrier films and potential off-gassing from fibers. The simulation results predicting the effective thermal conductivities matched the experimental results well. These findings indicate that natural fiber–based VIPs have the potential to be a sustainable, inexpensive alternative to the current technologies in building insulation materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal operation of multi-plant steam district heating systems for enhanced efficiency and sustainability

Despite their crucial role in supplying heat and power to universities, industries, and healthcare facilities, many steam-based district heating systems rely on outdated control methods. Among these, multi-central plant districts are particularly challenging due to the complexities of coordinating multiple plants, optimizing load distributions, and managing system downtime. In response, new operational strategies are developed to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of steam districts while utilizing existing resources. These strategies include reducing plant operational pressure without compromising the reliable supply to buildings and optimizing load allocation across multiple plants. The load allocation considers boiler part-load efficiency, runtime, network losses, and building pressure set points, and is compared with traditional multi-boiler controls. To support this exploration, new dynamic Modelica models are developed. In addition, methods to reduce modeling complexities are incorporated, enhancing their suitability for practical applications. A holistic district-wide analysis using a real university case study demonstrates a 4.7% fuel savings by lowering boiler operational pressure from 900 kPa to 600 kPa, along with a 13.3% reduction in condensation losses across the distribution network. Furthermore, the load allocation approach results in a 13.1% reduction in fuel consumption during peak winter periods and 15.3% during shoulder periods, with corresponding decreases in carbon emissions and fuel costs. This approach can also save maintenance costs by reducing the boiler runtime by 49.6%. In conclusion, this research underscores the benefits of retrofitting aging steam district heating systems, offering immediate operational improvements by enhancing efficiency, meeting regulatory compliance, and extending infrastructure lifespans while delaying costly overhauls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗