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Study of Magnetic Motions in the Solar Photosphere and their Implications for Heating the Solar Atmosphere

We continued our program of CO observations with the McMath-Pierce facility at Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory. Uitenbroek has developed a two-and three dimensional radiative transfer code that now includes chemical equilibrium calculations. This code allows us to compute a CO spectrum from for instance a snapshot of a solar granulation simulation (e.g. Stein & Nordlund 1989, Apj 342, L95) and compare these theoretical spectra with our spatially resolved CO spectroscopy. Van Ballegooijen and Uitenbroek have started calculations of two-dimensional fluxtube models that account consistently for hydrogen ionization in the calculation of the electron density. To this end we solve radiative transfer for hydrogen (bound-bound and bound-free transitions) in the two-dimensional models, including the effect of partial frequency redistribution (PRD) in the Lyman (alpha) and (beta) lines. From our internally consistent models we will calculate emergent spectra and the way these vary with location of some well-known spectral diagnostics and compare our results with observed line profiles. We can readily compare theoretical CO profiles from out models with our spatially resolved CO observations. Also we can compare with spatially resolved Ca II (ground based) and Mg II (we have observations done with the UVSP/SMM instrument), and Lyman (alpha) observations that should be available from SUMER/SOHO.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

Collaborative investigation of the internal flow and near-nozzle flow of an eight-hole gasoline injector (Engine Combustion Network Spray G)

The internal details of fuel injectors have a profound impact on the emissions from gasoline direct injection engines. However, the impact of injector design features is not currently understood, due to the difficulty in observing and modeling internal injector flows. Gasoline direct injection flows involve moving geometry, flash boiling, and high levels of turbulent two-phase mixing. In order to better simulate these injectors, five different modeling approaches have been employed to study the engine combustion network Spray G injector. Here these simulation results have been compared to experimental measurements obtained, among other techniques, with X-ray diagnostics, allowing the predictions to be evaluated and critiqued. The ability of the models to predict mass flow rate through the injector is confirmed, but other features of the predictions vary in their accuracy. The prediction of plume width and fuel mass distribution varies widely, with volume-of-fluid tending to overly concentrate the fuel. All the simulations, however, seem to struggle with predicting fuel dispersion and by inference, jet velocity. This shortcoming of the predictions suggests a need to improve Eulerian modeling of dense fuel jets.

ECN↗

Ultraviolet ISM diagnostics for star-forming galaxies. I. Tracers of metallicity and extinction

We have observed a sample of 14 nearby (z∼0.03) star-forming blue compact galaxies (BCGs) in the rest-frame far-UV (∼1150–2200 Å) using the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. We have also generated a grid of stellar population synthesis models using the Starburst99 evolutionary synthesis code, allowing us to compare observations and theoretical predictions for the Si iv-1400 and C iv-1550 UV indices; both are comprised of a blend of stellar wind and interstellar lines and have been proposed as metallicity diagnostics in the UV. Our models and observations both demonstrate that there is a positive linear correlation with metallicity for both indices, and we find generally good agreement between our observations and the predictions of the Starburst99 models (with the models slightly under-estimating the value of the indices due to contributions from interstellar lines not simulated by a stellar population synthesis code). By combining the rest-frame UV observations with pre-existing rest-frame optical spectrophotometry of our BCG sample, we also directly compare the predictions of metallicity and extinction diagnostics across both wavelength regimes. This comparison reveals a correlation between the UV absorption and optical strong-line diagnostics, offering the first means of directly comparing interstellar medium (ISM) properties determined across different rest-frame regimes. Finally, using our Starburst99 model grid, we determine theoretical values for the short-wavelength UV continuum slope, β{sub 18}, which can be used for determining extinction in rest-frame UV spectra of star-forming galaxies. We consider the implications of these results and discuss future work aimed at parameterizing these and other environmental diagnostics in the UV (a suite of diagnostics that could offer particular utility in the study of star-forming galaxies at high redshift) as well as the development of robust comparisons between ISM diagnostics across a broad wavelength baseline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma in weightlessness: a feasibility study

BACKGROUND: The Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) examines for fluid in gravitationally dependent regions. There is no prior experience with this technique in weightlessness, such as on the International Space Station, where sonography is currently the only diagnostic imaging tool. STUDY DESIGN: A ground-based (1 g) porcine model for sonography was developed. We examined both the feasibility and the comparative performance of the FAST examination in parabolic flight. Sonographic detection and fluid behavior were evaluated in four animals during alternating weightlessness (0 g) and hypergravity (1.8 g) periods. During flight, boluses of fluid were incrementally introduced into the peritoneal cavity. Standardized sonographic windows were recorded. Postflight, the video recordings were divided into 169 20-second segments for subsequent interpretation by 12 blinded ultrasonography experts. Reviewers first decided whether a video segment was of sufficient diagnostic quality to analyze (determinate). Determinate segments were then analyzed as containing or not containing fluid. A probit regression model compared the probability of a positive fluid diagnosis to actual fluid levels (0 to 500 mL) under both 0-g and 1.8-g conditions. RESULTS: The in-flight sonographers found real-time scanning and interpretation technically similar to that of terrestrial conditions, as long as restraint was maintained. On blinded review, 80% of the recorded ultrasound segments were considered determinate. The best sensitivity for diagnosis in 0 g was found to be from the subhepatic space, with probability of a positive fluid diagnosis ranging from 9% (no fluid) to 51% (500 mL fluid). CONCLUSIONS: The FAST examination is technically feasible in weightlessness, and merits operational consideration for clinical contingencies in space.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

The ICF National Diagnostic Plan (NDP) 9/19/17

A major goal of the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is to deliver validated numerical models, benchmarked against experiments that address relevant and important issues and provide data that stress the codes and our understanding. DOENNSA has made significant investments in major facilities and high-performance computing to successfully execute the SSP. The more information obtained about the physical state of the plasmas produced, the more stringent the test of theories, models, and codes can be, leading to increased confidence in our predictive capability. To fully exploit the world-leading capabilities of the ICF program, a multi-year program to develop and deploy advanced diagnostics has been developed by the expert scientific community. To formalize these activities NNSA’s Acting Director for the Inertial Confinement Fusion Program directed the formation and duties of the National Diagnostics Working Group (NDWG) in a Memorandum 11/3/16 (Appendix A). The NDWG identified eight transformational diagnostics, shown in Table 1, that will provide unprecedented information from experiments in support of the SSP at NIF, Z and OMEGA. Table 1 shows how the missions of the SSP experiments including materials, complex hydrodynamics, radiation flow and effects and thermo-nuclear burn and boost will produce new observables, which will be measured using a variety of largely new diagnostic technologies used in the eight transformational diagnostics. The data provided by these diagnostics will validate and improve the physics contained within the SSP’s simulations and both uncover and quantify important phenomena that lie beyond our present understanding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Diagnostic calculations of the circulation in the Martian atmosphere

The circulation of the Martian atmosphere during late southern summer is derived from atmospheric temperature and dust distributions retrieved from a subset of the Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer (IRIS) thermal emission spectra (L(sub s) = 343-348 deg). Zonal-mean zonal winds are calculated by assuming gradient wind balance and zero surface zonal wind. Both hemispheres have intense midlatitude westerly jets with velocities of 80-90 m/s near 50 km; in the southern tropics the winds are easterly with velocities of 40 m/s near 50 km. The net effect of the zonal mean meridional circulation and large-scale waves can be approximated by the diabatic circulation, which is defined from the atmospheric thermal structure and net radiative heating rates. The radiative transfer model described by Crisp (1990) and Santee (1993) is used to compute solar heating and thermal cooling rates from diurnal averages of the retrieved IRIS temperature and dust distributions. At pressures below 4 mbar, there are large net radiative heating rates (up to 5 K/d) in the equatorial region and large net radiative cooling rates (up to 12 K/d) in the polar regions. These net radiative heating rates are used in a diagnostic stream function model which solves for the meridional and vertical components of the diabatic circulation simultaneously. We find a two-cell circulation, with rising motion over the equator, poleward flow in both hemispheres, sinking motion over both polar regions, and return flow in the lowest atmospheric levels. The maximum poleward velocity is 3 m/s in the tropics at approx. 55 km altitude, and the maximum vertical velocity is 2.5 cm/s downward over the north pole at approx. 60 km altitude. If these large transport rates are sustained for an entire season, the Martian atmosphere above the 1-mbar level is overturned in about 38 days. This diabatic circulation is qualitatively similar to the terrestrial diabatic circulation at the comparable season, but is more vigorous.

Santee, Michelle L.↗

Comparison of Expert Vocabulary Usage Patterns Between Mental Health and Nonmental Health Clinicians When Diagnosing Pediatric Anxiety Disorders

Objective: To compare the utilization patterns of expert vocabulary (EVo) in diagnosing pediatric anxiety between mental health and non-mental health clinical notes from electronic health records to understand the role of Evo in informing classification and decision-making in anxiety diagnoses. Study design: We conducted a retrospective study using a cohort less than age 25 from Cincinnati Children's Hospital including 897 685 patients with 61 586 446 notes. We analyzed EVo, collected from mental health clinicians, in both mental and nonmental health notes. We compared classification accuracy using EVo-based patient-level embedding from all clinical notes, mental-health notes, and nonmental health notes for 2 tasks: 1) pre-vs postdiagnosis anxiety patients, and 2) prediagnosis anxiety vs nonanxiety patients. Results: EVo usage was highest in prediagnosis anxiety, lower in nonanxiety, and lowest in post-diagnosis. Classification models using EVo features from all, mental-health, and non-mental health notes showed similar F1 scores for prediagnosis anxiety (0.70 ± 0.2 for 2 categories). For anxiety vs nonanxiety classification, all clinical and nonmental health notes had better F1 scores than mental-health notes (above 0.90 for 3 categories). There was a notable difference in class-wise performance across both tasks. Conclusions: There are significant differences in anxiety EVo use between mental health and nonmental health clinicians. Despite less anxiety-specific terminology, non-mental health notes still captured key aspects of patient presentations, emphasizing the importance of including all clinicians' notes in analysis. EVo's utility for anxiety classification is most effective in prediagnostic phases, suggesting the need for a dedicated diagnostic lexicon and further study before incorporating EVo into classification models.

feature engineering↗

Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

The automation of pre-launch diagnostics for launch vehicles offers three potential benefits: improving safety, reducing cost, and reducing launch delays. The Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype demonstrated anomaly detection, fault detection, fault isolation, and diagnostics for the Ares I-X first-stage Thrust Vector Control and for the associated ground hydraulics while the vehicle was in the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and while it was on the launch pad. The prototype combines three existing tools. The first tool, TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System), is a model-based tool from Qualtech Systems Inc. for fault isolation and diagnostics. The second tool, SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine), is a rule-based expert system that was developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We developed SHINE rules for fault detection and mode identification, and used the outputs of SHINE as inputs to TEAMS. The third tool, IMS (Inductive Monitoring System), is an anomaly detection tool that was developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The three tools were integrated and deployed to KSC, where they were interfaced with live data. This paper describes how the prototype performed during the period of time before the launch, including accuracy and computer resource usage. The paper concludes with some of the lessons that we learned from the experience of developing and deploying the prototype.

Schwabacher, Mark A.↗

Diagnostic calculations of the circulation in the Martian atmosphere

The circulation of the Martian atmosphere during late southern summer is derived from atmospheric temperature and dust distributions retrieved from a subset of the Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer (IRIS) thermal emission spectra (LS = 343-348 deg) (Santee and Crisp, 1933). Zonal-mean zonal winds are calculated by assuming gradient wind balance and zero surface zonal wind. Both hemispheres have intense midlatitude westerly jets with velocities of 80-90 m/s near 50 km; in the southern tropics the winds are easterly with velocities of 40 m/s near 50 km. The net effect of the zonal-mean meridional circulation and large-scale waves can be approximated by the diabatic ciculation, which is defined from the atmospheric thermal structure and net radiative heating rates. The radiative transfer model described by Crisp (1990) and Santee (1993) is used to compute solar heating and thermal cooling rates from diurnal averages of the retrieved IRIS temperature and dust distributions. At pressures below 4 mbar, there are large net radiative heating rates (up to 5 K/d) in the equatorial region and large net radiative cooling rates (up to 12 K/d) in the polar regions. These net radiative heating rates are used in a diagnostic stream function model which solves for the meridonal and vertical components of the diabatic circulation simultaneously. We find a two cell circulation, with rising motion over the equator, poleward flow in both hemispheres, sinking motion over both polar regions, and return flow in the lowest atmospheric levels. The maximum poleward velocity is 3 m/s in the tropics at approximately 55 km altitude, and the maximum vertical velocity is 2.5 cm/s downward over the north pole at approximately 60 km altitude. If these large transport rates are sustained for an entire season, the Martian atmosphere above the 1-mbar level is overturned in about 38 days. This diabatic circulation is qualitatively similar to the terrestial diabatic circulation at the comparable season, but is more vigorous.

Santee, Michelle L.↗

First attempt to quantify W7-X island divertor plasma by local experiment-model comparison

As a complement to our recent work, which focused on understanding the basic detachment physics and general experimental and numerical trends observed in the W7-X island divertor, this paper compares EMC3-Eirene simulation results with different local diagnostics, including IR cameras, Langmuir probes, H α -cameras, and Thomson scattering. The main purposes are to (1) justify the simulation setup in the previous work, (2) identify the application limitations of the current EMC3-Eirene model, (3) verify the consistency of different diagnostics, and (4) isolate the main geometric and physical effects that need to be prioritized in further developing the EMC3-Eirene code and improving diagnostic capabilities. It turns out that the current version of the EMC3-Eirene code (without drifts) is not yet able to quantitatively reproduce all selected local measurements simultaneously under the current experimental conditions (in particular, the existence of error fields). Nevertheless, it can be shown that within a reasonable range of variation in magnetic configuration, cross-field transport, and SOL plasma state in the modeling, a region of overlap between the numerical results and the local measurements can be established. More accurate model-experiment comparisons will require clarification of error fields, implementation of drifts in EMC3, and improvement of diagnostic capabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

Broadband X-Ray Spectra of GX 339-4 and the Geometry of Accreting Black Holes in the Hard State

A major question in the study of black hole binaries involves our understanding of the accretion geometry when the sources are in the "hard" state. In this state, the X-ray energy spectrum is dominated by a hard power-law component and radio observations indicate the presence of a steady and powerful "compact" jet. Although the common hard state picture is that the accretion disk is truncated, perhaps at hundreds of gravitational radii (R(sub g)) from the black hole, recent results for the recurrent transient GX 339-4 by Miller and co-workers show evidence for optically thick material very close to the black hole's innermost stable circular orbit. That work focused on an observation of GX 339-4 at a luminosity of about 5% of the Eddington limit (L(sub Edd)) and used parameters from a relativistic reflection model and the presence of a soft, thermal component as diagnostics. In this work, we use similar diagnostics, but extend the study to lower luminosities (2.3% and 0.8% L(sub Edd)) using Swift and RXTE observations of GX 339-4. We detect a thermal component with an inner disk temperature of approx.0.2 keV at 2.3% L(sub Edd). At 0.8% L(sub Edd), the spectrum is consistent with the presence of such a component, but the component is not required with high confidence. At both luminosities, we detect broad features due to iron Ka that are likely related to reflection of hard X-rays off the optically thick material. If these features are broadened by relativistic effects, they indicate that optically thick material resides within 10 R(sub g) down to 0.8% L(sub Edd), and the measurements are consistent with the inner radius of the disk remaining at approx.4 R(sub g) down to this level. However, we also discuss an alternative model for the broadening, and we note that the evolution of the thermal component is not entirely consistent with the constant inner radius interpretation. Finally, we discuss the results in terms of recent theoretical work by Liu and co-workers on the possibility that material may condense out of an Advection-Dominated Accretion Flow to maintain an inner optically thick disk.

Tomsick↗

Development of Prognostic Models Using Plant Asset Data

The recent growth of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies provides opportunities for leveraging data-driven algorithms to address the problems of diagnostics and prognostics in the nuclear power industry. The use of machine learning and other statistical methods as prognostic models is of particular interest in the nuclear industry to accurately predict future equipment or plant state given a set of measurements. Such predictive capability will enable predictive assessment of component condition and remaining life and allow for condition-based predictive maintenance. The resulting optimization of maintenance scheduling and reduction in unnecessary maintenance activities will lower overall maintenance costs and improve the economics of nuclear power. This report discusses the various aspects of data processing and model development that are likely to influence the performance of prognostic models. Data from a boiling-water reactor was used to evaluate several prognostic models to identify key considerations for developing such models to predict data-driven plant state and equipment degradation condition. Preliminary results indicate the need for data sets that are relevant to the problem at hand and contain signatures that may be correlated to the prediction problem. Assuming such data exist, development of prognostic models using data-driven methods requires an understanding of the various sources of influence on the prediction accuracy (such as the model architecture, data preprocessing approaches, and potentially external factors influencing the equipment or plant system under assessment). Ongoing research is evaluating these factors in greater detail and examining techniques for calculating prediction uncertainty bounds.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Thermal conductivity of rubble piles

Rubble piles are a common feature of solar system bodies. They are composed of monolithic elements of ice or rock bound by gravity. Voids occupy a significant fraction of the volume of a rubble pile. They can exist up to pressure P≈ϵ{sub Y}μ, where ϵ{sub Y} is the monolithic material's yield strain and μ its rigidity. At low P, contacts between neighboring elements are confined to a small fraction of their surface areas. As a result, the effective thermal conductivity of a rubble pile, k{sub con}≈k(P/(ϵ{sub Y}μ)){sup 1/2}, can be orders of magnitude smaller than the thermal conductivity of its monolithic elements, k. In a fluid-free environment, only radiation can transfer energy across voids. It contributes an additional component, k{sub rad}=16ℓσT{sup 3}/3, to the total effective conductivity, k{sub eff}=k{sub con}+k{sub rad}. Here ℓ, the inverse of the opacity per unit volume, is of the order of the size of the elements, and voids. An important distinction between k{sub con} and k{sub rad} is that the former is independent of the size of the elements, whereas the latter is proportional to it. Our expression for k{sub eff} provides a good fit to the depth dependence of thermal conductivity in the top 140 cm of the lunar regolith. It also offers a good starting point for detailed modeling of thermal inertias for asteroids and satellites. Measurement of the response of surface temperature to variable insolation is a valuable diagnostic of a regolith. There is an opportunity for careful experiments under controlled laboratory conditions to test models of thermal conductivity such as the one we outline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar chromospheric modeling based on submillimeter limb brightness profile

A method of modeling the solar chromosphere is developed, based on submillimeter continuum observations of the solar limb. Submillimeter radiation from the solar limb emanates from the chromosphere in local thermodynamic equilibrium, making it an important chromospheric diagnostic. Also, the use of high-resolution limb profiles allows for atmospheric modeling independent of gravitational hydrostatic equilibrium. The chromospheric model is constructed to match high-resolution solar limb profiles at 30, 50, 100, and 200 microns, determined by an occultation of the solar limb observed from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory during the total solar eclipse of July 31, 1981. This matching is achieved by 'stretching' the solar model atmosphere of Vernazza, Avrett, and Loesser (1981) vertically out of hydrostatic equilibrium, while maintainingn its vertical temperature-optical depth profile.

Hermans, L. M.↗

Study of the internal structure, instabilities, and magnetic fields in the dense Z-pinch

Z-pinches are sources of hot dense plasma which generates powerful x-ray bursts and can been applied to various areas of high-energy-density physics (HEDP). The 26-MA Z machine is at the forefront of many of these applications, but important aspects of HEDP have been studied on generators at the 1 MA current level. Recent development of laser diagnostics and upgrade of the Leopard laser at Nevada Terawatt Facility (NTF) give new opportunities for the dense Z-pinch study. The goal of this project is the investigation of the internal structure of the stagnated Z pinch including sub-mm and micron-scale instabilities, plasma dynamics, magnetic fields, and hot spots formation and initiation. New plasma diagnostics will be developed for this project. A 3D structure and instabilities of the pinch will be compared with 3D MHD and spectroscopic modeling and theoretical analysis. The structure and dynamics of stagnated Z pinches has been studied with x-ray self-radiation diagnostics which derive a temperature map of the pinch with a spatial resolution of 70-150 µm. The regular laser diagnostics at 532 nm does not penetrate in the dense pinch due to strong absorption and refraction in trailing plasma. Recent experiments at NTF showed that shadowgraphy at the UV wavelength of 266 nm unfolds a fine structure of the stagnated Z-pinch with unprecedented detail. We propose to develop laser UV diagnostics for Z pinches with a spatial resolution <5 μm to study the small-scale plasma structures, implement two-frame shadowgraphy/interferometry, and develop methods for investigation of strong magnetic fields. New diagnostics will help to understand better basic physical processes in Z pinches. A 3D internal structure of the pinch and characteristic instabilities will be studied in wire arrays with different configurations and compared with 3D MHD simulations and analytical models. Mechanisms of “enhanced heating” of Z-pinch plasma will be studied. Fast dynamics of stagnated plasma will be studied to estimate its contribution to the Doppler broadening of x-ray lines. Development of “necks” and “hot spots” will be studied with high-resolution UV diagnostics, an x-ray streak camera, and x-ray spectroscopy. Laser initiation of hot spots in Z pinches will be tested. A Faraday rotation diagnostic at 266 nm will be applied to 1-10 MG magnetic fields. For magnetic fields B>20 MG, suggested in micropinches, Cotton-Mouton and cutoff diagnostics will be applied. A picosecond optical Kerr shutter will be tested to increase a sensitivity of UV methods for application at multi-MA Z pinches. The proposal is based on the experimental capability of NTF. The Zebra generator produces 1-1.7 MA Z-pinches with electron plasma density of 10 20 -10 21 cm -3 , electron temperature of 0.5-1 keV, and magnetic fields >10 MG. The Leopard laser was upgraded to energy of 90-J at 0.8 ns. This regime will be used for laser initiation of hot spots. A further upgrade to energy of 250-J is suggested for laser-Z-pinch interaction. A picosecond regime will be used for optical gating. A 10-TW Tomcat laser at NTF is available for the high energy UV laser probing of the Z-pinch. Two graduate students will develop new optical and x-ray diagnostics, carry out experiments, and process experimental data. Other students will be involved in the design and fabrication of loads, supporting regular optical and x-ray diagnostics, and data processing. The new plasma diagnostics may be applied to HEDP experiments at NTF and other multi-MA generators. The feasibility of the research plan is based on the experience of the scientific team in Z-pinch plasma physics, laser physics, development of new plasma diagnostics, and the experimental capability of NTF. The experimental group of Dr. V. V. Ivanov (UNR) collaborates with a group for Z pinch MHD modeling of Dr. J. P. Chittenden (Imperial College, London), and theoretical group of Dr. D. D. Ryutov (LLNL). The suggested research ideas are supported by preliminary experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Designing a training tool for imaging mental models

The training process can be conceptualized as the student acquiring an evolutionary sequence of classification-problem solving mental models. For example a physician learns (1) classification systems for patient symptoms, diagnostic procedures, diseases, and therapeutic interventions and (2) interrelationships among these classifications (e.g., how to use diagnostic procedures to collect data about a patient's symptoms in order to identify the disease so that therapeutic measures can be taken. This project developed functional specifications for a computer-based tool, Mental Link, that allows the evaluative imaging of such mental models. The fundamental design approach underlying this representational medium is traversal of virtual cognition space. Typically intangible cognitive entities and links among them are visible as a three-dimensional web that represents a knowledge structure. The tool has a high degree of flexibility and customizability to allow extension to other types of uses, such a front-end to an intelligent tutoring system, knowledge base, hypermedia system, or semantic network.

Dede, Christopher J.↗