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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of System Integration Analysis Activities for Integrated Waste Management

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) generated by the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors is being stored at reactor sites in spent fuel pools (SFPs) and in dry independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs). The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program is examining a suite of IWM system options and conducting supporting analyses to enable future informed choices. The IWM program is currently organized into the following four major areas: (1) IWM facilities and equipment concepts and development, (2) transportation capability analysis and support, (3) information technology solutions and support, and (4) system integration analysis and support. This paper focuses on the activities ongoing in the IWM system integration analysis and support area. Two main research activities in this area are: data and tools development, validation, and maintenance; and special studies, analyses, and assessments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long duration battery sizing, siting, and operation under wildfire risk using progressive hedging

Battery sizing and siting problems are computationally challenging due to the need to make long-term planning decisions that are cognizant of short-term operational decisions. This paper considers sizing, siting, and operating batteries in a power grid to maximize their benefits, including price arbitrage and load shed mitigation, during both normal operations and periods with high wildfire ignition risk. Here we formulate a multi-scenario optimization problem for long duration battery storage while considering the possibility of load shedding during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events that de-energize lines to mitigate severe wildfire ignition risk. To enable a computationally scalable solution of this problem with many scenarios of wildfire risk and power injection variability, we develop a customized temporal decomposition method based on a progressive hedging framework. Extending traditional progressive hedging techniques, we consider coupling in both placement variables across all scenarios and state-of-charge variables at temporal boundaries. This enforces consistency across scenarios while enabling parallel computations despite both spatial and temporal coupling. The proposed decomposition facilitates efficient and scalable modeling of a full year of hourly operational decisions to inform the sizing and siting of batteries. With this decomposition, we model a year of hourly operational decisions to inform optimal battery placement for a 240-bus WECC model in under 70 min of wall-clock time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Interim Report on NASA's Draft Space Technology Roadmaps

NASA has developed a set of 14 draft roadmaps to guide the development of space technologies under the leadership of the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT). Each of these roadmaps focuses on a particular technology area (TA). The roadmaps are intended to foster the development of advanced technologies and concepts that address NASA's needs and contribute to other aerospace and national needs. OCT requested that the National Research Council conduct a study to review the draft roadmaps, gather and assess relevant community input, and make recommendations and suggest priorities to inform NASA's decisions as it finalizes its roadmaps. The statement of task states that "based on the results of the community input and its own deliberations, the steering committee will prepare a brief interim report that addresses high-level issues associated with the roadmaps, such as the advisability of modifying the number or technical focus of the draft NASA roadmaps." This interim report, which does not include formal recommendations, addresses that one element of the study charge. NASA requested this interim report so that it would have the opportunity to make an early start in modifying the draft roadmaps based on feedback from the panels and steering committee. The final report will address all other tasks in the statement of task. In particular, the final report will include a prioritization of technologies, will describe in detail the prioritization process and criteria, and will include specific recommendations on a variety of topics, including many of the topics mentioned in this interim report. In developing both this interim report and the final report to come, the steering committee draws on the work of six study panels organized by technical area, loosely following the organization of the 14 roadmaps, as follows: A Panel 1: Propulsion and Power TA01 Launch Propulsion Systems TA02 In-Space Propulsion Technologies TA03 Space Power and Energy Storage Systems TA13 Ground and Launch Systems Processing B Panel 2: Robotics, Communications, and Navigation TA04 Robotics, TeleRobotics, and Autonomous Systems TA05 Communication and Navigation Systems C Panel 3: Instruments and Computing TA08 Science Instruments, Observatories, and Sensor Systems TA11 Modeling, Simulation, Information Technology, and Data Processing D Panel 4: Human Health and Surface Exploration TA06 Human Health, Life Support, and Habitation Systems TA07 Human Exploration Destination Systems E Panel 5: Materials Panel TA10 Nanotechnology TA12 Materials, Structures, Mechanical Systems, and Manufacturing TA14 Thermal Management Systems F Panel 6: Entry, Descent, and Landing Panel TA09 Entry, Descent, and Landing Systems In addition to drawing on the expertise represented on the steering committee and panels, the committee obtained input from each of 14 public workshops held on each of the 14 roadmaps. At these 1-day workshops, invited speakers, guests, and members of the public engaged in discussions on the different technology areas and their value to NASA. Broad community input was also solicited from a public website, where more than 240 public comments were received on the draft roadmaps in response to application of criteria (such as benefit, risk and reasonableness, and alignment with NASA and national goals) that the steering committee established. This interim report reflects the results of deliberations by the steering committee in light of these public inputs as well as additional inputs from the six panels. The steering committee's final report will be completed early in 2012. That report will prioritize the technologies that span the entire scope of the 14 roadmaps and provide additional guidance on crosscutting themes and other relevant topics.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying nitrogen loss hotspots and mitigation potential for individual fields in the US Corn Belt with a metamodeling approach

The high productivity in the US Corn Belt is largely enabled by the consumption of millions of tons of manufactured fertilizer. Excessive application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer has been pervasive in this region, and the unrecovered N eventually escaped from croplands in forms of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission and N leaching. Mitigating these negative impacts is hindered by a lack of practical information on where to focus and how much mitigation potential to expect. At a large scale, process-based crop models are the primary tools for predicting variables required by decision making, but their applications are prohibited by expensive computational and data storage costs. To overcome these challenges, we built a series of metamodels to learn the key mechanisms regarding the carbon (C) and N cycle from a well-validated process-based biogeochemical model, ecosys. The trained metamodel captures over 98% of the variability of the ecosys simulated outputs for 99 randomly selected counties in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. To identify hotspots with high mitigation potential, we introduce net societal benefit (NSB) as an indicator for synthesizing the loss in yield and social benefits through emissions and pollutants avoided. Our results show that reducing N fertilizer by 10% leads to 9.8% less N 2 O emissions and 9.6% less N leaching at the cost of 4.9% more SOC depletion and 0.6% yield reduction over the study region. The estimated total annual NSB is $\$395$ M (uncertainty ranges from $\$114$ M to $\$1271$ M), including $\$334$ from social benefits (uncertainty ranges from $\$46$ M to $\$1076$ M), $\$100$ M from saving fertilizer (uncertainty ranges from $\$13$ M to $\$455$ M), and –$\$40$ M due to yield changes (uncertainty ranges from –$\$261$ M to $\$69$ M). For the median scenario, we noted that 20% of the study area accounts for nearly 50% of the NSB, and thus represent hotspot locations for targeted mitigation. Although the uncertainty range suggests that developing such a high-resolution framework is not yet settled and the scenario based estimations are not appropriate to inform the management practices for individual farmers, our efforts shed light on the new generation of analytical tools for life cycle assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

AlphaBuilding ResCommunity: A multi-agent virtual testbed for community-level load coordination

Training and validating algorithms in a simulation testbed can accelerate research and applications of optimal control of residential loads to improve energy flexibility and grid resilience. We developed an open-source simulation environment, AlphaBuilding ResCommunity, that can be used to train and validate algorithms to control a single thermostatically controlled load (TCL) or coordinate a group of TCLs. We used reduced-order models to simulate the thermodynamics of TCLs, and the parameter values were determined from the connected smart thermostat data of real households. The environment was built upon the standardized OpenAI Gym interface. Ancillary functions, such as retrieving the parameters and weather forecasts, are provided to facilitate control strategies that require predictive information. Compared with existing efforts, AlphaBuilding ResCommunity has three advantages: (1) more realistic model settings because the parameter values are identified from actual household operating data, and modelling and measurement uncertainty are considered; (2) passive thermal storage control; and (3) ease of use due to a simple software dependency and standardized interface. We demonstrated the applications of the environment by implementing a Kalman Filter and Model Predictive Control on a single TCL and a Priority-Stack-Based Control and Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers to coordinate multiple TCLs for load tracking.

Wang, Z↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tensor-based flow reconstruction from optimally located sensor measurements

Reconstructing high-resolution flow fields from sparse measurements is a major challenge in fluid dynamics. Existing methods often vectorize the flow by stacking different spatial directions on top of each other, hence confounding the information encoded in different dimensions. Here, we introduce a tensor-based sensor placement and flow reconstruction method which retains and exploits the inherent multidimensionality of the flow. We derive estimates for the flow reconstruction error, storage requirements and computational cost of our method. We show, with examples, that our tensor-based method is significantly more accurate than similar vectorized methods. Furthermore, the variance of the error is smaller when using our tensor-based method. While the computational cost of our method is comparable to similar vectorized methods, it reduces the storage cost by several orders of magnitude. The reduced storage cost becomes even more pronounced as the dimension of the flow increases. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on three examples: a chaotic Kolmogorov flow, in situ and satellite measurements of the global sea surface temperature and three-dimensional unsteady simulated flow around a marine research vessel.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical, Microstructural, and Electrochemical Characterization of NaSICON Sodium Ion Conductors [Poster]

The DOE Office of Electricity views sodium batteries as a priority in pursuing a safe, resilient, and reliable grid. Improvements in solid-state electrolytes are key to realizing the potential of these large-scale batteries. NaSICON structure consists of SiO 4 or PO 4 tetrahedra sharing common corners with ZrO 6 octahedra. Structure forms “tunnels” in three dimensions that can transport interstitial sodium ion. 3D structure provides higher ionic conductivity than other conductors (β’’-alumina), particularly at low temperature. Lower temperature (cheaper) processing compared to β’’-alumina. Our objective was to identify fundamental structure-processing-property relationships in NaSICON solid electrolytes to inform design for use in sodium batteries. In this work, the mechanical properties of NaSICON sodium ion conductors are affected by sodium conduction. Electrochemical cycling can alter modulus and hardness in NaSICON. Excessive cycling can lead to secondary phases and/or dendrite formation that change mechanical properties in NaSICON. Mechanical and electrochemical properties can be correlated with topographical features to further inform design decisions

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

The ETROC2 as the Final Version for CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) Upgrade

The ETROC (Endcap Timing Readout Chip) is being developed for the LGAD-based CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) at HL-LHC. The ETL on each side of the interaction region will be instrumented with a two-disk system of MIP-sensitive LGAD (Low Gain Avalanche Diodes) silicon devices, read out by ETROCs for precision timing measurement with down to ~30 ps timing resolution per track. The ETROC is designed to handle a 16 x 16 pixel cell matrix, with each pixel being 1.3 mm x 1.3 mm to match the LGAD sensor pixel size. The front-end design for preamplifier and discriminator has been specifically optimized for the reduced LGAD signals, with enough flexibilities to meet the ETL specific needs for time resolution, power budget and radiation profile. The ETROC chip is implemented in a commercial 65nm CMOS process. Each channel consists of a preamplifier, a discriminator, a TDC used for TOA (Time Of Arrival) and TOT (Time Over Threshold) measurements, and a memory for data storage and readout. An in-pixel auto threshold calibration is included, along with a self-testing pattern generator. The TOT is used for time-walk correction of the TOA measurement. The detailed hit information (TOA and TOT) from each cell will be read out from a local circular buffer after each Level-1 Accept (about 1 MHz). In addition, a charge injection circuit is implemented to allow for testing and calibration. For more detailed monitoring of the signal pulses, waveform sampling circuits are included for one pixel. The clock distribution is based on a 16x16 H-tree design with a shielding structure to alleviate potential interference. The global peripheral circuits include a PLL, a phase shifter, an I2C slave controller, a fast control block, a global readout, and a data driver along with an efuse and temperature sensor. The ETROC builds event data frames for each L1A selected event and is also capable of providing L1 trigger information for user-defined delayed hits. The main design challenge is how to extract precision timing information from the small LGAD signals in the presence of high irradiation fluence, while keeping the power consumption and digital activity low. The ETL design goal for the time resolution of 50 ps per hit is required to achieve a 35 ps arrival time measurement for a MIP particle, which has its track registered in two ETL disk layers. The LGAD contribution is known to be about 30 ps, this means that the jitter from the ETROC has to be kept below 40 ps. The ETROC2 is the first full size full functionality prototype design fully compatible with the final chip specifications for CMS ETL and now becomes the final version. The ETROC2 chips have been extensively tested. We will present here new testing results including the bump bonding yield improvement study, the time walk correction (TWC) generality study with one pixel TWC applying to all pixels, the final SEU testing using both heavy ion and proton beam, more beam test studies including different sensors, and readiness for the ETROC2 production for CMS ETL upgrade.

Liu, Tiehui [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000765225605)↗
NASA NTRS1977

System design package for SIMS prototype system 2, solar hot water

Information necessary to evaluate the design and assembly of a solar hot water system is presented. A prototype system designed for use in a single family dwelling is investigated in terms of the following subsystems: collector, storage, energy transport, and control.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

An overview of the education and training component of RICIS

Research in education and training according to RICIS (Research Institute for Computing and Information Systems) program focuses on means to disseminate knowledge, skills, and technological advances rapidly, accurately, and effectively. A range of areas for study include: artificial intelligence, hypermedia and full-text retrieval strategies, use of mass storage and retrieval options such as CD-ROM and laser disks, and interactive video and interactive media presentations.

Freedman, Glenn B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Earth Observation

For pipeline companies, mapping, facilities inventory, pipe inspections, environmental reporting, etc. is a monumental task. An Automated Mapping/Facilities Management/Geographic Information Systems (AM/FM/GIS) is the solution. However, this is costly and time consuming. James W. Sewall Company, an AM/FM/GIS consulting firm proposed an EOCAP project to Stennis Space Center (SSC) to develop a computerized system for storage and retrieval of digital aerial photography. This would provide its customer, Algonquin Gas Transmission Company, with an accurate inventory of rights-of-way locations and pipeline surroundings. The project took four years to complete and an important byproduct was SSC's Digital Aerial Rights-of-Way Monitoring System (DARMS). DARMS saves substantial time and money. EOCAP enabled Sewall to develop new products and expand its customer base. Algonquin now manages regulatory requirements more efficiently and accurately. EOCAP provides government co-funding to encourage private investment in and broader use of NASA remote sensing technology. Because changes on Earth's surface are accelerating, planners and resource managers must assess the consequences of change as quickly and accurately as possible. Pacific Meridian Resources and NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) developed a system for monitoring changes in land cover and use, which incorporated the latest change detection technologies. The goal of this EOCAP project was to tailor existing technologies to a system that could be commercialized. Landsat imagery enabled Pacific Meridian to identify areas that had sustained substantial vegetation loss. The project was successful and Pacific Meridian's annual revenues have substantially increased. EOCAP provides government co-funding to encourage private investment in and broader use of NASA remote sensing technology.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Review of the High Performance Antiproton Trap (HiPAT) Experiment at the Marshall Space Flight Center

The significant energy density of matter-antimatter annihilation is attractive to the designers of future space propulsion systems, with the potential to offer a highly compact source of power. Many propulsion concepts exist that could take advantage of matter-antimatter reactions, and current antiproton production rates are sufficient to support basic proof-of-principle evaluation of technology associated with antimatter- derived propulsion. One enabling technology for such experiments is portable storage of low energy antiprotons, allowing antiprotons to be trapped, stored, and transported for use at an experimental facility. To address this need, the Marshall Space Flight Center's Propulsion Research Center is developing a storage system referred to as the High Performance Antiproton Trap (HiPAT) with a design goal of containing 10(exp 12) particles for up to 18 days. The HiPAT makes use of an electromagnetic system (Penning- Malmberg design) consisting of a 4 Telsa superconductor, high voltage electrode structure, radio frequency (RF) network, and ultra high vacuum system. To evaluate the system normal matter sources (both electron guns and ion sources) are used to generate charged particles. The electron beams ionize gas within the trapping region producing ions in situ, whereas the ion sources produce the particles external to the trapping region and required dynamic capture. A wide range of experiments has been performed examining factors such as ion storage lifetimes, effect of RF energy on storage lifetime, and ability to routinely perform dynamic ion capture. Current efforts have been focused on improving the FW rotating wall system to permit longer storage times and non-destructive diagnostics of stored ions. Typical particle detection is performed by extracting trapped ions from HiPAT and destructively colliding them with a micro-channel plate detector (providing number and energy information). This improved RF system has been used to detect various plasma modes for both electron and ion plasmas in the two traps at MSFC, including axial, cyclotron, and diocotron modes. New diagnostics are also being added to HiPAT to measure the axial density distribution of the trapped cloud to match measured RF plasma modes to plasma conditions.

Pearson, J. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decision Framework for Classifying the State of Knowledge for Pharmaceutical Stability in Spaceflight

The currently approved medication formulary for exploration-class spaceflight missions presently exceeds 200pharmaceuticals. However, these medications' physical and chemical stability during long-term exposure to the spaceflight environment remains uncharacterized. A multi-disciplinary team of pharmacy and spaceflight subject matter experts (SMEs) collaborated to develop a decision framework that will prioritize medications for future stability research. This framework prioritizes the physical stability, drug quality, and safety of the active pharmaceutical ingredient of finished drug products selected for specific design reference mission (DRM) drug formularies. The United States Pharmacopeia (USP) defines drug stability as "the extent to which a drug product retains, within specified limits, and throughout its period of storage and use, the same properties and characteristics that it possessed at the time of its manufacture.1"The candidate medication is assessed by applying a sequence of drug agnostic questions to evaluate the limits of stability information pertinent to spaceflight. The answers to these questions ultimately lead to one of three characterizations: green (not prioritized for further research for this DRM), yellow (requires further literature review/additional studies), or red (not suitable for this DRM based on current knowledge). The decision framework will rely on several information resources to inform the ultimate decision, including the ExMC Pharmacy Information Database, published literature, FDA/drug manufacturer monographs, and USP. The results of this framework will be used to classify the state of knowledge for pharmaceutical stability for any specified DRM and guide future research efforts accordingly. This presentation will provide an overview of how this decision framework was developed, detail the challenges and limitations of the pathways, and discuss how researchers can apply the lessons learned from this project to future work

S Kurian↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lessons Learned for Responsible Use of Cloud in the Cirrus Project, Following the CrowdStrike Outage Event

A disruption in CrowdStrike’s Falcon cybersecurity platform on July 19th, 2024, caused worldwide chaos. This event highlights the imperative need for cloud security measures for networks that are critically reliant on cloud technology. This incident negatively impacted air travel, government networks, and critical infrastructure sectors such as hospitals and financial institutions. While no electric utilities had a physical impact, and few had an IT impact, there were issues created by loss of cloud services, and other interrelated industries. For utilities and energy distribution organizations, understanding and mitigating these risks is essential. The Cirrus tool offers a strategic solution engineered to weave cloud integration seamlessly into the fabric of operational management, thereby enhancing resilience and streamlining efficiency in the face of digital challenges.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗