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Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite as it nears its System Acceptance Review (SAR). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY23. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedule.

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

Impact, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision to Support - Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

CFD/FEA Co-Simulation Framework for Analysis of the Thermal Barrier Coating Design and Its Impact on the HD Diesel Engine Performance

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) have been investigated both experimentally and through simulation for mixing controlled combustion (MCC) concepts as a method for reducing heat transfer losses and increasing cycle efficiency, but it is still a very active research area. Early studies were inconclusive, with different groups discovering obstacles to realizing the theoretical potential. Nuanced papers have shown that coating material properties, thickness, microstructure, and surface morphology/roughness all can impact the efficacy of the thermal barrier coating and must be accounted for. Adding to the complexities, a strong spatial and temporal heat flux inhomogeneity exists for mixing controlled combustion (diesel) imposed onto the surfaces from the impinging flame jets. In support of the United States Department of Energy SuperTruck II program goal to achieve 55% brake thermal efficiency on a heavy-duty diesel engines, this study sought to develop a deeper insight into the inhomogeneous heat flux from mixing controlled combustion on thermal barrier coatings and to infer concrete guidance for designing coatings. To that end, a co-simulation approach was developed that couples high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of in-cylinder processes and combustion, and finite element analysis (FEA) modeling of the thermal barrier-coated and metal engine components to resolve spatial and temporal thermal boundary conditions. The models interface at the surface of the combustion chamber; FEA modeling predicts the spatially resolved surface temperature profile, while CFD develops insights into the effect of the thermal barrier coating on the combustion process and the boundary conditions on the gas side. The paper demonstrates the capability of the framework to estimate cycle impacts of the temperature swing at the surface, as well as identify critical locations on the piston/thermal barrier coating that exhibit the highest charge temperature and highest heat fluxes. In addition, the FEA results include predictions of thermal stresses, thus enabling insight into factors affecting coating durability. An example of the capability of the framework is provided to illustrate its use for investigating novel coatings and provide deeper insights to guide future coating design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Influence of Material Distribution on Impact Resistance of Hybrid Composites

Impact events occur in a wide variety of circumstances. A typical example is a bullet impacting a target made of composite material. These impact events produce time-varying loads on a structure that can result in damage. As a first step to understanding the damage resistance issue in composite laminates, an accurate prediction of the transient response during an impact event is necessary. The analysis of dynamic loadings on laminated composite plates has undergone considerable development recently. Rayleigh-Ritz energy method was used to determine the impact response of laminated plates. The impact response of composite plates using shear deformation plate theory was analyzed. In recent work a closed-form solution was obtained for a rectangular plate with four edges simply supported subjected to a center impact load using classical plate theory. The problem was further investigated and the analysis results compared of both classical plate theory and shear deformation theory, and found that classical plate theory predicts very accurate results for the range of small deformations considered. In this study, the influence of cross sectional material distribution on the comparative impact responses of hybrid metal laminates subjected to low and medium velocity impacts is investigated. A simple linear model to evaluate the magnitude of the impact load is proposed first, and it establishes a relation between the impact velocity and the impact force. Then a closed-form solution for impact problem is presented. The results were compared with the finite element analysis results. For an 11 layer-hybrid laminate, the impact response as a function of material distribution in cross-section is presented. With equal areal weight, the effect of the number of laminate layers on the impact resistance is also investigated. Finally, the significance of the presented results is discussed.

Abatan, Ayu↗

Mechanical behavior and texture evolution of WE43 magnesium-rare earth alloy in Split-Hopkinson Pressure Bar and Taylor Impact Cylinder Testing

Mechanical behavior and texture evolution of Mg rare-earth alloy WE43 is investigated for strain-rates 10 -3 /s to upwards of 10 5 /s for the two material conditions - as-cast (AC) and T6 age hardened, rolled plate (RT6). The high strain-rate behavior is tested using both Taylor cylinder impact tests (TC) and split Hopkinson pressure bar tests (SHB) and bulk textures are obtained using neutron diffraction. Unlike the quasi-static strained material, AC and RT6 SHB retained high hardening rates throughout the test, even up to 30% true strain. Moreover, the high strain-rate data revealed that the RT6 material has a much higher strength than the AC material, but similar hardening rates despite significantly different initial texture. The flow stress near yield increased up to I 0% for RT6 and up to 30% for AC as the strain-rate increased six orders of magnitude from quasi-static rates 10 -3 /s to 10 3 /s. Neither material exhibited significant plastic anisotropy over the broad range of strain rates, despite the fact that the RT6 material had a moderately strong initial texture. In the TC tests, the geometric cross-sectional changes and texture along the cylinder from the cylindrical sample foot to head are measured and from the neutron diffraction texture analysis, upper-bound estimates of twin volume fraction are obtained as well as dislocation density from analyzing diffraction peak broadening. Recorded geometrical changes along several loading directions show that the material has deformed remarkably homogeneously under impact. Analysis of deformed textures indicates that {101¯2} extension deformation twinning occurred in the RT6 condition over the range of strain rates, with an upper bound estimate of 40% twin volume fraction for approximately 0.10-0.25 true strain. The peak texture components after the impact have their c-axes closely aligned with the impact direction. As a result, these observations are presented and rationalized in the paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of U-10Mo HALEU fuel element tolerances on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reactor safety and operational performance – Thermal hydraulics

The U.S. is coordinating efforts for the conversion of six U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) including one critical facility from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU). In order to continue the mission of these reactors, including the Massachusetts of Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), and achieve similar performance, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) with a high-density metallic alloy of uranium with 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is being evaluated. The impact of the fabrication specification and tolerances was assessed following the preliminary design of the MITR LEU fuel elements using the U-10Mo monolithic alloy. This research focuses on the analysis of fabrication specification impact on thermal hydraulics (TH) characteristic of the MITR LEU core as a function of the variation of the relevant fuel specification parameters (e.g., coolant channel gap thickness, fuel plate thickness, etc.). The analyses are performed based on an all-fresh LEU fuel conversion plan identified in a preliminary safety analysis report submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The reactor power margin to the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB) is assessed under the limiting safety system settings (LSSS), where a scram occurs, to ensure there is sufficient margin to the reactor safety limit, which is defined by the onset of flow instability that occurs after the ONB. The best estimate plus uncertainty approach is employed to analyze this TH characteristic, which yields realistic results while maintaining adequate conservatism, utilizing a statistical uncertainty propagation method with the STAT7 code. The TH characteristic is analyzed as a function of the variability of the specification parameters resulting from the fabrication process. The main findings of this study show that the MITR core can meet the TH safety and operational requirements at the all-LEU initial core startup (cycle 1), selected transition cycles (most reactive cycle and most limiting cycle: cycle 3 and 5, respectively) and equilibrium (cycle 14) cores under all limiting fabrication parameter combinations considered. In addition, the analyses show that the dependency of the core power margin to ONB on those specification parameters that have the most direct impact on TH performance is non-linear but monotonically decreasing within the specification tolerances. The third order polynomial fit curves are reported in detail for selected limiting cases and can serve as a powerful tool for future MITR fuel management in cases such as when HALEU supply is established that may allow additional cycle length or other operational benefits.

Conversion↗

NMR spin diffusion measurements in disordered polymers: Insights and limitations

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spin diffusion measurements have been widely used to estimate domain sizes in a variety of polymer materials. In cases where the domains are well-described as regular, repeating structures (e.g., lamellar, cylindrical channels, monodispersed spherical domains), the domain sizes estimated from NMR spin diffusion experiments agree with the characteristic length scales obtained from small-angle x-ray scattering and microscopy. In our laboratory, recent NMR spin diffusion experiments for hydrated sulfonated Diels Alder poly(phenylene) (SDAPP) polymer membranes have revealed that assuming a simple structural model can often misrepresent or overestimate the domain size in situations where more complex and disordered morphologies exist. Molecular dynamics simulations of the SDAPP membranes predict a complex heterogeneous hydrophilic domain structure that varies with the degree of sulfonation and hydration and is not readily represented by a simple repeating domain structure. This heterogeneous morphology results in NMR-measured domain sizes that disagree with length scales estimated from the ionomer peak in scattering experiments. Here we present numerical NMR spin diffusion simulations that show how structural disorder in the form of domain size distributions or domain clustering can significantly impact the spin diffusion analysis and estimated domain sizes. As a result, simulations of NMR spin diffusion with differing domain size distributions and domain clustering are used to identify the impact of the heterogeneous domain structure and highlight the limitations of using NMR spin diffusion techniques for irregular structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reviewing Benefits and Costs of Hydropower Development Evidence From the Lower Mekong River Basin

In this paper, we examine the benefits and costs of hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin. We compare four major reports—the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Basin Development Plan Programme, Phase 2 (BDP2), the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream (SEA), the Study on the Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower on the Mekong River (MDS), and the MRC's recent council study (CS)—in order to provide the basis for a comparative analysis of the major impact evaluation literature on mainstream dam construction in the Mekong River Basin for the period of 2010–2018. The primary objective of the review is to identify points of agreement, disagreement, inconsistency, and knowledge gaps. Both Mekong River Commission reports (BDP2 and CS) suggest extensive economic benefits for proposed hydropower development, whereas the SEA and MDS indicate that the net impact would be negative. The projected impacts of hydropower development on fisheries, sediment flows, and ecosystems vary widely both in economic and biophysical terms. However, all four reports point to decreased food security and loss of local livelihoods for millions of people as major concerns related to dam development. While considerable resources have been devoted to producing these important studies, the lack of standardization across reports, especially assumptions and methodologies for economic impacts, frustrates efforts at meaningful comparison of their findings and precludes the prospect of clear analytical outcomes or policy impacts.

Cumulative impact assessment↗

Supply and Resource Management to Progressively Enable EIMO

BACKGROUND: Current medical operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) allow for real-time audio-video communication with a flight surgeon at mission control, resupply, and medical evacuation to earth on the order of hours. As mission profiles change from LEO to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, medical risk as a contribution to overall mission risk is anticipated to rise substantially. Concurrently, due to the distance, the medical systems on board vehicles proposed for these mission types are expected to have reduced mass and volume allocation. Together, astronaut crews will be at a higher risk of major medical events, be required to perform a broader set of tasks, and have substantially reduced resources and support to do so. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) aims to identify and fill the gaps present in this progressively changing paradigm. OVERVIEW: Medical supplies, resources, and skills are central to spaceflight medical systems. Vehicles used for non-LEO missions are anticipated to be smaller and thus the medical system will also need to have reduced mass, volume, and power. Medical resources are another form of consumable and may need resupply or pre-deployment to meet crew needs. One particular concern is the degradation of medications which become less efficacious and potentially toxic with time, particularly given environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, oxygen, and radiation which have not yet been fully studied. Supply and resource management in LEO is dependent on resupply, however the supply chain of transporting equipment does not yet have a clear infrastructure for missions beyond LEO. DISCUSSION: EIMO is intended to systemically identify and fill these gaps with forward-looking solutions. In mission monitoring of resources with technology like RFID, improving medical resource longevity, targeted resupply and careful pre-mission planning will be central to facilitate crew health and performance. One approach to optimizing resources is the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool, which uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantitatively predict medical risk and identify resources and skills that mitigate this risk. This evidence based, quantitative analysis prediction tool and several other approaches to meeting the challenge of supply and resource management are discussed.

Arian Anderson↗

ERAD: A Graph-Based Tool for Energy Resilience Analysis of Electric Distribution Systems

Understanding the impact of extreme events on people's ability to access energy is crucial for designing resilient energy systems. In the event of a disaster, damage to the electric system and related infrastructure (e.g., downed power lines, flooded equipment, hacked communication systems, damaged roads, etc.) can impact people's access to critical services, including not just electricity but also shelter, food, healthcare, and more. There is a key need to understand such impacts better and evaluate options to improve energy resilience. The Energy Resilience Analysis for Electric Distribution Systems (ERAD) tool is a free and open-source software package designed to help researchers and decision-makers analyze and improve energy system resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Upgrade of the Materials Analysis Particle Probe (MAPP-U) to decipher the impact of lithium-based surfaces on NSTX-U plasma behavior

Understanding the plasma wall interaction (PWI) remains a critical issue for the feasibility of thermonuclear magnetic fusion energy solutions. Key issues with PWI mechanisms in fusion tokamak reactors include: evolution of surface chemistry and its role on hydrogen retention. In particular how low-Z coatings such as lithium can impact the behavior of plasma at the edge and in the core. PMI (plasma-material interactions) are particularly important for strategies that involve low-recycling regimes and the use of lithium PFS (plasma-facing surfaces) to attain them, as in the case of NSTX-U. Recent reports have indicated the importance of access to the evolving plasma-facing surface during and in-between plasma discharges. Changes in surface chemistry and morphology due to ion bombardment and the difficulty of diagnosing plasma-facing surfaces, especially reactive surfaces, complicate the development of a predictive understanding of the wall and its interaction with the plasma. Consequently, this impairs the ability to design advanced PFC materials for future plasma-burning fusion reactors and appropriate PMI code validation. The Materials Analysis Particle Probe (MAPP) is an established and on-going PMI probe diagnostic system compatible with the highly chemically reactive system of lithium and boron coatings adopted by the NSTX-U research program. MAPP is the first PMI diagnostic to capture the surface physics and chemistry in-vacuo in a fusion tokamak system and correlate this data to controlled plasma shots. Currently MAPP captures this information at a fixed radial location at the NSTX-U outboard divertor region. The MAPP diagnostic has enabled understanding of the near-surface and surface chemistry of complex evolving lithiated and borated carbon-based PFC surfaces retention and transport of hydrogen. Coupled to atomistic simulations in collaboration with P. Krstic of Stony Brook U. MAPP has been very successful in achieving high-impact scientific research in its current grant period evidenced by two invited review articles and over 20 peer-reviewed manuscripts and over 40 contributed and invited presentations at both national and international conferences.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Outcome According to Elective Pelvic Radiation Therapy in Patients With High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of the GETUG 12 Phase 3 Randomized Trial

Purpose: The role of pelvic elective nodal irradiation (ENI) in the management of prostate cancer is controversial. This study analyzed the role of pelvic radiation therapy (RT) on the outcome in high-risk localized prostate cancer patients included in the Groupe d'Etude des Tumeurs Uro-Genitales (GETUG) 12 trial. Methods and Materials: Patients with a nonpretreated high-risk localized prostate cancer and a staging lymphadenectomy were randomly assigned to receive either goserelin every 3 months for 3 years and 4 cycles of docetaxel plus estramustine or goserelin alone. Local therapy was administered 3 months after the start of systemic treatment. Performance of pelvic ENI was left to the treating physician. Only patients treated with primary RT were included in this analysis. The primary endpoint was biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS). Results: A total of 413 patients treated from 2002 to 2006 were included, of whom 358 were treated using primary RT. A total of 208 patients received pelvic RT and 150 prostate-only RT. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, Gleason score, or T stage did not differ according to performance of pelvic RT; pN+ patients more frequently received pelvic RT than pN0 patients (P<.0001). Median follow-up was 8.8 years. In multivariate analysis, bPFS was negatively impacted by pN stage (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.52 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78-3.54], P<.0001), Gleason score 8 or higher (HR: 1.41 [95% CI: 1.03-1.93], P=.033) and PSA higher than 20 ng/mL (HR: 1.41 [95% CI: 1.02-1.96], P=.038), and positively impacted by the use of chemotherapy (HR: 0.66 [95% CI: 0.48-0.9], P=.009). There was no association between bPFS and use of pelvic ENI in multivariate analysis (HR: 1.10 [95% CI: 0.78-1.55], P=.60), even when analysis was restricted to pN0 patients (HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.59-1.31], P=.53). Pelvic ENI was not associated with increased acute or late patient reported toxicity. Conclusions: This unplanned analysis of a randomized trial failed to demonstrate a benefit of pelvic ENI on bPFS in high-risk localized prostate cancer patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Sallee, G. P.↗

The impact of satellite soundings on the National Meteorological Center's Analysis and Forecast System - The data systems test results

Parallel analyses produced with (SAT) and without (NOSAT) the sounding data from the experimental Nimbus-6 and operational NOAA-4 satellites for two data system test periods have indicated that satellite soundings had little impact on forecast through 72 h over the Northern Hemisphere. The effect of remote temperature sounding was generally small and of inconsistent sign, i.e. beneficial in some cases, harmful in others. These positive and negative contributions averaged slightly positive for test period 6 and slightly negative for test period 5. Because of the inconsistency in sign, neither result is much of meteorological consequence. There were, however, systematic differences between the SAT and NOSAT mode analysis: the amplitude of weather systems was consistently less in the SAT mode. The reduced amplitude reflects a tendency for the satellite temperature retrievals to underestimate the spatial variance in the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Tracton, M. S.↗

Investigation of trap properties in high-k/metal gate p-type metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect-transistors with aluminum ion implantation using random telegraph noise analysis

In this study, the impact of aluminum ion implantation (Al I/I) on random telegraph noise (RTN) in high-k/metal gate (HK/MG) p-type metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect-transistors (pMOSFETs) was investigated. The trap parameters of HK/MG pMOSFETs with Al I/I, such as trap energy level, capture time and emission time, activation energies for capture and emission, and trap location in the gate dielectric, were determined. The configuration coordinate diagram was also established. It was observed that the implanted Al could fill defects and form a thin Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} layer and thus increase the tunneling barrier height for holes. It was also observed that the trap position in the Al I/I samples was lower due to the Al I/I-induced dipole at the HfO{sub 2}/SiO{sub 2} interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗