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At least 1,351 records · Page 75
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Growth of carbon nanotube forests on flexible metal substrates: Advances, challenges, and applications

Owing to their remarkable properties and ordered architecture, vertically aligned CNT forests (VACNT) hold promises for countless applications ranging from energy storage to multifunctional fiber production. Over the last three decades, studies of carbon nanotube (CNT) growth have provided invaluable insight into the CNT nucleation and growth mechanism and enabled critical advancements in nanotechnology. Nevertheless, the ability to fully harness the exceptional VACNT properties in commercial devices is bottlenecked by compatibility of current CNT synthesis processes with large-scale manufacturing. Metal foil substrates present an economic alternative to traditional insulating substrates, like silicon or quartz, and are compatible with both roll-to-roll and automated, large-scale, batch processes. Compared to CNT growth on Si substrates, metal foils present additional challenges, such as increased roughness and reactivity at high temperatures. Nonetheless, many successful VACNT growths on conducting metal foils have been reported, which demonstrate the feasibility of metal substrate use for large-volume production of high-quality CNTs. Here, in this review, we discuss advancements in the field of VACNT growth on metal foil and specifically examine different choices for metal substrates, barrier and catalyst layers, deposition and growth methods, resulting CNT characteristics, and highlight a number of applications that benefit from CNT growth on metal substrates and transition to large-scale manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil organic matter is principally root derived in an Ultisol under oak forest

To a large degree, the sources and stability of soil organic carbon remain poorly constrained. A clear understanding of links among the components of the soil C cycle is hampered by the complexity of the system as well as challenges associated with partitioning bulk soil C into meaningful fractions. A large accidental 14 CO 2 release at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee, USA provided a strong label pulse into adjacent, well-studied oak forests, resulting in highly elevated Δ 14 C values in leaf litter (~1000‰) and roots (~260–450‰). A four-year manipulative study was conducted to determine the relative contribution of litter versus roots to the bulk mineral soil C pool, as well as to free light, occluded light and heavy fractions. The heavy fraction was further split into fractions with densities of 1.7–2.4 g cm –3 and >2.4 g cm –3 to test the homogeneity of the mineral-associated fraction of C. Substantial concentrations of label were detected in all soil fractions within a year of the 14 CO 2 release, indicating rapid incorporation of newly fixed photosynthates in all fractions of soil organic C, regardless of differences in stability inferred by previous work. This rapid incorporation of label occurred only in treatments where roots were labeled, indicating that roots are the major source of inputs to mineral soil C stocks at these sites. Separation of the heavy fraction into subfractions of intermediate (1.7–2.4 g cm –3 ) and high (>2.4 g cm –3 ) density indicated that both subfractions incorporated label at similar rates, despite significant differences in degree of microbial processing. In general, the rate of label incorporation suggested a much faster turnover for all fractions than indicated by natural radiocarbon abundance values. This study suggests that within each soil fraction there are portions of slow-cycling and fast-cycling materials, and the determination of an average turnover time or mean age is dependent on experimental approach. The rapid incorporation of label into all fractions within a year regardless of inferred stability implies a high degree of heterogeneity in all fractions regardless of how finely the soils are partitioned. Further refinement of the nature and drivers of this heterogeneity could yield important insights into the soil C cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking seasonal variability in plant traits from spaceborne PRISMA and NEON AOP across forest types and ecoregions

Plant traits serve as critical indicators of how plants adapt to environmental changes and influence ecosystem functions. While airborne hyperspectral remote sensing effectively maps plant traits through detailed reflectance properties, it is limited by cost and scale, making large-scale and temporal studies challenging. The recently launched spaceborne hyperspectral imager, PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), offers frequent, large scale and high-fidelity observations on a spatial resolution of 30 m and a revisit time of around 29 days, making it suitable for large-scale seasonal trait mapping. However, their potential remains largely unexplored. This study developed a multi-stage framework by leveraging the PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) hyperspectral data to investigate the seasonal dynamics of four key plant traits — chlorophyll content, carotenoid content, equivalent water thickness, and nitrogen content — across eleven NEON sites representing diverse forest types and ecoregions in the contiguous U.S. Our results demonstrated that PRISMA hyperspectral data can reliably track seasonal variability in plant traits, achieving overall R 2 values ranging from 0.78 to 0.88 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values ranging from 5.4% to 8.4% for the four traits. Seasonal patterns revealed bell-shaped trajectories for chlorophyll and carotenoids, while equivalent water thickness decreased steadily across most sites, driven by structural changes during leaf maturation and senescence. Nitrogen content exhibited less pronounced seasonal variation but followed expected nutrient resorption patterns. Analysis of environmental drivers showed that seasonal variability is primarily controlled by solar radiation and day length in northern sites, vapor pressure in semi-arid regions, and temperature in mid-southeastern sites. Spatial variability, meanwhile, was primarily driven by soil properties, particularly during the peak growing season. However, the influence of soil variables slightly declines toward the end of the season at several sites, as climatic factors become more prominent. This study highlights the capability of PRISMA, and potentially other similar spaceborne hyperspectral data for large-scale, time-series plant trait mapping and provides valuable insights into the interactions between plant traits and environmental factors. In conclusion, these findings contribute to advancing our understanding of plant functional ecology and improving predictions of ecosystem responses to environmental changes.

Environmental drivers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prevalent root-derived phenolics drive shifts in microbial community composition and prime decomposition in forest soil

Phenolic compounds perform various functions in soil ranging from microbial substrate to toxin and form the basis of several plant-mediated processes. The aim of this study was to investigate how phenolics commonly exuded by tree roots influence soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and interact with other labile forms of carbon (C) abundant in root exudates. Therefore, we performed a 38-day incubation experiment and assessed whether phenolic compounds (benzoic acid, caffeic acid and catechin) facilitated or inhibited SOM decomposition in a glucose-amended forest soil. Changes in decomposition, substrate use, fungal and bacterial community composition, and microbial abundance and activity were measured over time using 13 C-stable-isotope tracing, DNA-based molecular methods and enzyme assays. Our findings showed that phenolics inhibited microbial activity and abundance to varying degrees. Yet, benzoic acid was the only compound producing a substantial priming effect leading to a 21% increase in SOM decomposition, which was amplified in glucose-amended soils. This stimulation in microbial activity was associated with an increase in β-1,4-glucosidase activity and the bacterial genera Paraburkholderia and Caballeronia of the Burkholderiaceae family. Phenolics drove microbial community shifts in glucose-amended soils with negligible interactive effects. In conclusion, phenolic priming of SOM decomposition is associated with microbial community shifts and amplified in the presence of glucose. This evidence emphasizes the need for considering phenolics and interactions among root exudates as priming mechanisms in the rhizosphere and other soil environments where aromatics and phenolic compounds are abundant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil Carbon Stocks Not Linked to Aboveground Litter Input and Chemistry of Old-Growth Forest and Adjacent Prairie

The long-standing assumption that aboveground plant litter inputs have a substantial influence on soil organic carbon storage (SOC) and dynamics has been challenged by a new paradigm for SOC formation and persistence. We tested the importance of plant litter chemistry on SOC storage, distribution, composition, and age by comparing two highly contrasting ecosystems: an old-growth coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forest, with highly aromatic litter, and an adjacent coastal prairie, with more easily decomposed litter. We hypothesized that if plant litter chemistry was the primary driver, redwood would store more and older SOC that was less microbially processed than prairie. Total soil carbon stocks to 110 cm depth were higher in prairie (35 kg C m —2 ) than redwood (28 kg C m —2 ). Radiocarbon values indicated shorter SOC residence times in redwood than prairie throughout the profile. Higher amounts of pyrogenic carbon and a higher degree of microbial processing of SOC appear to be instrumental for soil carbon storage and persistence in prairie, while differences in fine-root carbon inputs likely contribute to younger SOC in redwood. We conclude that at these sites fire residues, root inputs, and soil properties influence soil carbon dynamics to a greater degree than the properties of aboveground litter.

13C-NMR spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Forest Fire Ash on Aquatic Mercury Cycling

Mercury (Hg) is a ubiquitous contaminant in the environment and its methylated form, methylmercury (MeHg), poses a worldwide health concern for humans and wildlife, primarily through fish consumption. Global production of forest fire ash, derived from wildfires and prescribed burns, is rapidly increasing due to a warming climate, but their interactions with aqueous and sedimentary Hg are poorly understood. In this study, we compared the differences of wildfire ash with activated carbon and biochar on the sorption of aqueous inorganic Hg and sedimentary Hg methylation. Sorption of aqueous inorganic Hg was greatest for wildfire ash materials (up to 0.21 μg g ₋1 or 2.2 μg g ₋1 C) among all of the solid sorbents evaluated. A similar Hg adsorption mechanism for activated carbon, biochar made of walnut, and wildfire ash was found that involves the formation of complexes between Hg and oxygen-containing functional groups, especially the ₋COO group. Notably, increasing dissolved organic matter from 2.4 to 70 mg C L ₋1 remarkably reduced Hg sorption (up to 40% reduction) and increased the time required to reach Hg–sorbent pseudo-equilibrium. Surprisingly, biochar and wildfire ash, but not activated carbon, stimulated MeHg production during anoxic sediment incubation, possibly due to the release of labile organic matter. Overall, our study indicates that while wildfire ash can sequester aqueous Hg, the leaching of its labile organic matter may promote production of toxic MeHg in anoxic sediments, which has an important implication for potential MeHg contamination in downstream aquatic ecosystems after wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Growth and Performance of High-Quality SWCNT Forests on Inconel Foils as Lithium-Ion Battery Anodes

Large-scale production of vertically aligned single-walled carbon nanotubes (VA-SWCNTs) on metal foils promises to enable technological advancements in many fields, from functional composites to energy storage to thermal interfaces. In this work, we demonstrate growth of high-quality (G/D > 6, average diameters ~ 2–3 nm, densities > 10 12 cm –2 ) VA-SWCNTs on Inconel metal for use as a lithium-ion battery (LIB) anode. Scale-up of SWCNT growth on Inconel 625 to 100 cm 2 exhibits nearly invariant CNT structural properties, even when synthesis is performed near atmospheric pressure, and this robustness is attributed to a growth kinetic regime dominated by the carbon precursor diffusion in the bulk gas mixture. SWCNT forests produced on large-area metal substrates at close to atmospheric pressure possess a combination of structural features that are among the best demonstrated so far in the literature for growth on metal foils. Leveraging these achievements for energy applications, we demonstrate a VA-SWCNT LIB anode with capacity >1200 mAh/g at 1.0C and stable cycling beyond 300 cycles. Furthermore, this robust synthesis of high-quality VA-SWCNTs on metal foils presents a promising route toward mass production of high-performance CNT devices for a broad range of applications.

Energy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can Isoprene Oxidation Explain High Concentrations of Atmospheric Formic and Acetic Acid over Forests?

Formic and acetic acid concentrations are particularly high over forested areas of the world. However, the gas-phase mechanisms for producing these acids are poorly understood even for isoprene, the globally dominant biogenic hydrocarbon. We quantified formic and acetic acid production from reactions of hydroxyl radical (OH) (between high and low ranges of nitric oxide (NO) levels) with isoprene, methacrolein (MACR), isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), isoprene hydroxy hydroperoxide (ISOPOOH), and α-pinene from the focused isoprene experiments at California Institute of Technology (FIXCIT) laboratory chamber study. We find that (i) OH oxidation of MACR, IEPOX, and ISOPOOH are sources of formic acid, (ii) isoprene peroxy radical isomerization and associated photolysis oxidation products are potentially important sources of organic acids, and (iii) high levels of NO generally suppress organic acid formation from OH oxidation of isoprene. We modified existing chemical mechanisms for isoprene oxidation to account for organic acid production pathways observed in the FIXCIT study. We simulated organic acid production during the Southeastern Oxidant and Aerosol Study using the updated chemical mechanisms and represented acetic acid within a factor of 2 but still underpredicted formic acid by a factor of 6. While we cannot explain ambient formic acid with explicit chemical mechanisms, the FIXCIT results suggest that the oxidation of isoprene could account for as much as 70% of the global annual production of formic acid from gas-phase reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Urban Forests as Main Regulator of the Evaporative Cooling Effect in Cities

Abstract Higher temperatures in urban areas expose a large fraction of the human population to potentially dangerous heat stress. Green spaces are promoted worldwide as local and city‐scale cooling strategies but the amount, type, and functioning of vegetation in cities lack quantification and their interaction with urban climate in different settings remains a matter of debate. Here we use state‐of‐the‐art remote sensing data from 145 city clusters to disentangle the drivers of surface urban heat islands (SUHI) intensity and quantify urban‐rural differences in vegetation cover, species composition, and evaporative cooling. We show that nighttime SUHIs are affected mostly by abiotic factors, while daytime SUHIs are highly correlated with vegetation characteristics and the wetness of the background climate. Magnitude and seasonality of daytime SUHIs are controlled by urban‐rural differences in plant transpiration and leaf area, which explain the dependence of SUHIs on wetness conditions. Leaf area differences are caused primarily by changes in vegetation type and a loss of in‐city forested areas, highlighting the importance of maintaining “natural reserves” as a sustainable heat mitigation policy.

Paschalis, Athanasios↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Dioxide Production in Bedrock Beneath Soils Substantially Contributes to Forest Carbon Cycling

Abstract Soils are widely considered the primary terrestrial organic matter pool mediating carbon transactions with the atmosphere and groundwater. Because soils are both a host and a product of rhizosphere activity, they are thought to mark the location where photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is balanced by the oxidation of organic matter. However, in many terrestrial environments, the rhizosphere extends below soils and into fractured bedrock, and it is unknown if the resulting biological and hydrologic dynamics in bedrock have a significant impact on carbon cycling. Here we show substantial production of CO 2 in weathered bedrock at 4–8 m below the thin soils (<0.5 m thick) of a Northern California forest using innovative monitoring technology for sampling gases and water in fractured rock. The deep CO 2 production supports a persistent upward flux of CO 2(g) year‐round from bedrock to soil, constituting between 2% and 29% of the average daily CO 2 efflux from the land surface. When water is rapidly transported across the fractured bedrock vadose zone, nearly 50% of the CO 2 produced in the bedrock dissolves into water, promoting water‐rock interaction and export of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the unsaturated zone to groundwater, constituting as much as 80% of the DIC exiting the hillslope. Such CO 2 production in weathered bedrock is subject to unique moisture, temperature, biological, and mineralogical conditions which are currently missing from terrestrial carbon models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Abstract Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon–climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel random forest approach to revealing interactions and controls on chlorophyll concentration and bacterial communities during coastal phytoplankton blooms

Abstract Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land–water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗