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At least 1,351 records · Page 75
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate warming enhances microbial network complexity and stability

Unravelling the relationships between network complexity and stability under changing climate is a challenging topic in theoretical ecology that remains understudied in the field of microbial ecology. Here, we examined the effects of long-term experimental warming on the complexity and stability of molecular ecological networks in grassland soil microbial communities. Warming significantly increased network complexity, including network size, connectivity, connectance, average clustering coefficient, relative modularity and number of keystone species, as compared with the ambient control. Molecular ecological networks under warming became significantly more robust, with network stability strongly correlated with network complexity, supporting the central ecological belief that complexity begets stability. Furthermore, warming significantly strengthened the relationships of network structure to community functional potentials and key ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, these results indicate that preserving microbial ‘interactions’ is critical for ecosystem management and for projecting ecological consequences of future climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation Representation Influences Projected Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

Vegetation parameters for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model were recently updated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Previous work showed that these MODIS-based parameters improved VIC evapotranspiration simulations when compared to eddy covariance observations. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration within the Colorado River basin, this study provided a basin-by-basin calibration of VIC soil parameters with updated MODIS-based vegetation parameters to improve streamflow simulations. Interestingly, while both configurations had similar historic streamflow performance, end-of-century hydrologic projections, driven by 29 downscaled global climate models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, differed between the two configurations. The calibrated MODIS-based configuration had an ensemble mean that simulated little change in end-of-century annual streamflow volume (+0.4%) at Lees Ferry, Arizona, relative to the historical period (1960–2005). In contrast, the previous VIC configuration, which is used to inform decisions about future water resources in the Colorado River basin, projected an 11.7% decrease in annual streamflow. Both VIC configurations simulated similar amounts of evapotranspiration in the historical period. However, the MODIS-based VIC configuration did not show as much of an increase in evapotranspiration by the end of the century, primarily within the upper basin’s forested areas. Differences in evapotranspiration projections were the result of the MODIS-based vegetation parameters having lower leaf area index values and less forested area compared to previous vegetation estimates used in recent Colorado River basin hydrologic projections. These results highlight the need to accurately characterize vegetation and better constrain climate sensitivities in hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Future of Supercells in the United States

A supercell is a distinct type of intense, long-lived thunderstorm that is defined by its quasi-steady, rotating updraft. Supercells are responsible for most damaging hail and deadly tornadoes, causing billions of dollars in losses and hundreds of casualties annually. This research uses high-resolution, convection-permitting climate simulations across 15-yr epochs that span the twenty-first century to assess how supercells may change across the United States. Specifically, the study explores how late-twentieth-century supercell populations compare with their late-twenty-first-century counterparts for two—intermediate and pessimistic—anthropogenic climate change trajectories. An algorithm identifies, segments, and tracks supercells in the simulation output using updraft helicity, which measures the magnitude of corkscrew flow through a storm’s updraft and is a common proxy for supercells. Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains. Supercell risk is expected to escalate outside of the traditional severe storm season, with supercells and their perils likely to increase in late winter and early spring months under both emissions scenarios. Conversely, the latter part of the severe storm season may be curtailed, with supercells expected to decrease midsummer through early fall. These results suggest the potential for more significant tornadoes, hail, and extreme rainfall that, when combined with an increasingly vulnerable society, may produce disastrous consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate

The major goal of the project is to answer the question how and to what degree does a warming climate alter hydrological functioning and (biogeochemical and chemical weathering) reaction rates at the watershed scale? In particular, how does hydrological functioning (water storage, flow paths, and travel time) change responding to a warming climate? What are the corresponding alterations in biogeochemical and chemical weathering rates at the watershed scale? What is the general watershed-scale reaction rate law that causally links reaction rates to metrics of hydrological functioning that are determined by external hydroclimatic conditions and internal watershed structure characteristics? To answer these questions, we have used field measurements and reactive transport modeling. We have found that: 1) stream chemistry has altered tremendously in warmer years; 2) In this water-limited environment, hydrology is the dominant driver for soil respiration and carbon lateral export at the watershed scale; 3) deeper carbon respiration plays an essential role in regulating the patterns of stream carbon in low and high flow conditions, and deeper groundwater will become increasingly important as warming intensifies. This indicates in mountain streams, a warming climate will modify not only the timing and magnitude of streamflow as expected, but also the chemistry and quality of stream water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Harnessing: Technologies for Sustainable Reindeer Husbandry in the Arctic

To accelerate the development of sustainable reindeer husbandry under the lead of indigenous reindeer herders, it is critical to empower reindeer herders with the best available technologies and to promote a new kind of science where traditional knowledge is fully integrated into the scientific management of the natural environment in the Arctic. This is particularly true given the dramatic environmental, climatic, economic, social and industrial changes, which have taken place across the Arctic in recent years, all of which have had serious impacts on the reindeer herding communities of the North. The Anar Declaration, adopted by the 2d World Reindeer Herders Congress (WRHC), in Inari, Finland, June 2001drew guidelines for the development of a sustainable reindeer husbandry based on reindeer peoples values and goals. The declaration calls for the reindeer herding peoples to be given the possibilities to develop and influence the management of the reindeer industry and its natural environment because of their knowledge and traditional practices. At the same time, Arctic scientists from many institutions and governments are carrying out increasingly highly technical reindeer related research activities. It is important that the technologies and results of these activities be more commonly co-produced with the reindeer herder community and/or made more readily available to the reindeer peoples for comparison with traditional knowledge for improved herd management. This paper describes a project in which reindeer herders and scientists are utilizing technologies to create a system for collecting and sharing knowledge. The project, Reindeer Mapper, is creating an information management and knowledge sharing system, which will help make technologies more readily available to the herder community for observing, data collection and analysis, monitoring, sharing, communications, and dissemination of information - to be integrated with traditional, local knowledge. The paper describes some of the technologies which comprise the system including an intranet system to enable the team members to work together and share information electronically, remote sensing data for monitoring environmental parameters important to reindeer husbandry (e.g. SAR, Landsat), acquisition of ground-based measurements, and the GIS-based information management and knowledge sharing system.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

A decision support tool for e-waste recycling operations using the hen-and-chicks bio-inspired optimization metaheuristic

E-waste from end-of-life electrical and electronic devices is one of the fastest growing waste streams from households and businesses. E-waste recycling yields environmental sustainability and economic benefits. Due to continuous changes in e-waste types and compositions, recycling businesses face challenges to optimize their operational configuration to achieve better economic and environmental performance. To help e-waste recyclers mitigate this problem, we have developed a modular decision support tool called the Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool (CMAT) that can simulate both e-waste recycling operations and economics. This tool can give valuable insights regarding the profitability of the entire operation and different e-waste types. In addition, a new bio-inspired metaheuristic optimization algorithm, hen-and-chicks optimization (HACO), was developed to assign manpower to different workstations to maximize operational efficiencies. According to the results of our case study, laptops, desktops, and computer peripherals are the three electronic waste products that produce the most profit. Our examination of the sensitivity of material prices shows that the price of steel has the most significant influence on total profit, because it is the most widely used material in the majority of electronic devices. We have released the decision support tool as open-source software under a general public license. It could be customized for other recycling industries beyond e-waste to achieve business sustainability by making their operations more efficient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil microbiome interventions for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation

Mitigating climate change in soil ecosystems involves complex plant and microbial processes regulating carbon pools and flows. Here, we advocate for the use of soil microbiome interventions to help increase soil carbon stocks and curb greenhouse gas emissions from managed soils. Direct interventions include the introduction of microbial strains, consortia, phage, and soil transplants, whereas indirect interventions include managing soil conditions or additives to modulate community composition or its activities. Approaches to increase soil carbon stocks using microbially catalyzed processes include increasing carbon inputs from plants, promoting soil organic matter (SOM) formation, and reducing SOM turnover and production of diverse greenhouse gases. Marginal or degraded soils may provide the greatest opportunities for enhancing global soil carbon stocks. Among the many knowledge gaps in this field, crucial gaps include the processes influencing the transformation of plant-derived soil carbon inputs into SOM and the identity of the microbes and microbial activities impacting this transformation. As a critical step forward, we encourage broadening the current widespread screening of potentially beneficial soil microorganisms to encompass functions relevant to stimulating soil carbon stocks. Moreover, in developing these interventions, we must consider the potential ecological ramifications and uncertainties, such as incurred by the widespread introduction of homogenous inoculants and consortia, and the need for site-specificity given the extreme variation among soil habitats. Incentivization and implementation at large spatial scales could effectively harness increases in soil carbon stocks, helping to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metrics as tools for bridging climate science and applications

In climate science and applications, the term “metric” is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are “fit for purpose.” Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co-production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. Here, this paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition toward a Decarbonized Energy System

The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential ‘hydrogen economy’ in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix, particularly the share produced centrally versus onsite, whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect, hydrogen can be a distributed energy vector, enabled by onsite renewable electrolysis and, to a lesser extent, by onsite industrial production using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios, hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses such as industrial high-temperature heat. Its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation increases as the climate objective is tightened.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reversible Chemochromic Hydrogen Detectors

The Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), affiliated with the University of Central Florida, has invented a reversible pigment that changes from light beige to blue when exposed to hydrogen and back to light beige when exposed to atmospheric oxygen. In laboratory and environmental studies, the FSEC pigment in its tape form failed to change color adequately when exposed to hydrogen after one day of exposure at Kennedy Space Center's Beach Corrosion Test Facility. The reversible hydrogen-detecting tape also lost its ability to change color after being placed in an environmental chamber at 45 C for one day. The first attempts at extruding the reversible pigment into various polymers were unsuccessful because of the pigment's poor thermal stability. The goal of this project was to formulate a pigment with improved thermal and environmental stability for extrusion into a variety of appropriate polymer matrices. The formulation of the reversible hydrogen-detecting pigment was modified by removing one reagent and chemically modifying the hydrogen sensitive ingredient. This was intended to improve the hydrophobicity of the pigment and alter the thermal degradation mechanism.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. In this work, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Uncertainty of the Future Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: Comparative Analysis of an Advanced Hierarchical Sensitivity in Humid and Semiarid Basins

Comparison and quantification of different uncertainties of future climate change involved in the modeling of a hydrological system are highly important for both hydrological modelers and policy-makers. However, few studies have accurately estimated the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty at different spatiotemporal scales. Here, a hierarchical sensitivity analysis framework (HSAF) incorporated with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is developed to quantify the spatiotemporal contributions of different uncertainties in hydrological impacts of climate change in two different climatic (humid and semiarid) basins in China. The uncertainty sources include three emission scenarios (ESs), 20 global climate models (GCs), three hydrological models (HMs), and the associated sensitive hydrological parameters (PAs) screened and sampled by the Morris and Latin hypercube sampling methods, respectively. Further, the results indicate that the overall trend of uncertainty is PA > HM > GC > ES, but their uncertainties have discrepancies in projections of different hydrological variables. The HM uncertainty in annual and monthly discharge projections is generally larger than the PA uncertainty in the humid basin than semiarid basin. The PA has greater uncertainty in extreme hydrological event (annual peak discharge) projections than in annual discharge projections for both basins (particularly for the humid basin), but contributes larger uncertainty to annual and monthly discharge projections in the semiarid basin than humid basin. The GC contributes larger uncertainty in all the hydrological variables projections in the humid basin than semiarid basin, while the ES uncertainty is rather limited in both basins. Overall, our results suggest there is greater spatiotemporal variability of hydrological uncertainty in more arid regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗