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DOE OSTI2021

Penalized ensemble Kalman filters for high dimensional non-linear systems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the well-known Kalman filter. However, its performance can suffer when the ensemble size is smaller than the state space, as is often necessary for computationally burdensome models. This scenario means that the empirical estimate of the state covariance is not full rank and possibly quite noisy. To solve this problem in this high dimensional regime, we propose a computationally fast and easy to implement algorithm called the penalized ensemble Kalman filter (PEnKF). Under certain conditions, it can be theoretically proven that the PEnKF will be accurate (the estimation error will converge to zero) despite having fewer ensemble members than state dimensions. Further, as contrasted to localization methods, the proposed approach learns the covariance structure associated with the dynamical system. These theoretical results are supported with simulations of several non-linear and high dimensional systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Model Exploration of an Information-Based Healthcare Intervention Using Parallelization and Active Learning

This paper describes the application of a large-scale active learning method to characterize the parameter space of a computational agent-based model developed to investigate the impact of CommunityRx, a clinical information-based health intervention that provides patients with personalized information about local community resources to meet basic and self-care needs. Additionally, the diffusion of information about community resources and their use is modeled via networked interactions and their subsequent effect on agents' use of community resources across an urban population. A random forest model is iteratively fitted to model evaluations to characterize the model parameter space with respect to observed empirical data. We demonstrate the feasibility of using high-performance computing and active learning model exploration techniques to characterize large parameter spaces; by partitioning the parameter space into potentially viable and non-viable regions, we rule out regions of space where simulation output is implausible to observed empirical data. We argue that such methods are necessary to enable model exploration in complex computational models that incorporate increasingly available micro-level behavior data. We provide public access to the model and high-performance computing experimentation code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exposure to ionizing radiation disrupts normal epigenetic aging in Japanese medaka

Alterations to the epigenome are a hallmark of biological aging and age-dependent patterning of the DNA methylome (“epigenetic aging”) can be modeled to produce epigenetic age predictors. Rates of epigenetic aging vary amongst individuals and correlate to the onset of age-related disease and all-cause mortality. Yet, the origins of epigenetic-to-chronological age discordance are not empirically resolved. Here, we investigate the relationship between aging, DNA methylation, and environmental exposures in Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes). We find age-associated DNA methylation patterning enriched in genomic regions of low CpG density and that, similar to mammals, most age-related changes occur during early life. We construct an epigenetic clock capable of predicting chronological age with a mean error of 61.1 days (~8.4% of average lifespan). To test the role of environmental factors in driving epigenetic age variation, we exposed medaka to chronic, environmentally relevant doses of ionizing radiation. Because most organisms share an evolutionary history with ionizing radiation, we hypothesized that exposure would reveal fundamental insights into environment-by-epigenetic aging interactions. Radiation exposure disrupted epigenetic aging by accelerating and decelerating normal age-associated patterning and was most pronounced in cytosines that were moderately associated with age. These findings empirically demonstrate the role of DNA methylation in integrating environmental factors into aging trajectories.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fluid – Fluid Interfacial Area and Its Impact on Relative Permeability - A Pore Network Modeling Study

Abstract Relative permeability (kr) is commonly modeled as an empirical function of phase saturation. Although current empirical models can provide a good match of one or two measured relative permeabilities using saturation alone, they are unable to predict relative permeabilities well when there is hysteresis or when physical properties such as wettability change. Further, current models often result in relative permeability discontinuities that can cause convergence and accuracy problems in simulation. To overcome these problems, recent research has modeled relative permeability as a state function of both saturation (S) and phase connectivity (X). Pore network modeling (PNM) data, however, shows small differences in relative permeability for the same S-X value when approached from a different flow direction. This paper examines the impact of one additional Minkowski parameter (Mecke and Arns, 2005), the fluid-fluid interfacial area, on relative permeability to identify if that satisfactorily explains this discrepancy. We calculate the total fluid-fluid interfacial areas (IA) during two-phase (oil/water) flow in porous media using pore network modeling. The area is calculated from PNM simulations using the areas associated with corners and throats in pore elements of different shapes. The pore network is modeled after a Bentheimer sandstone, using square, triangular, and circular pore shapes. Simulations were conducted for numerous primary drainage and imbibition cycles at a constant contact angle of 0° for the wetting phase. Simultaneous measurements of capillary pressure, relative permeability, saturation, and phase connectivity are made for each displacement. Fluid-fluid interfacial area is calculated from the PNM capillary pressure, the fluid location in the pore elements, and the pore element dimensional data. The results show that differences in the relative permeability at the same (S,X) point is explained well by differences in the fluid-fluid interfacial area (IA). That is, for a larger change in IA at these intersection points, the permeability difference is greater. That difference in relative permeability approaches zero as the difference in IA approaches zero. This confirms that relative permeability can be modeled better as a unique function of S, X, and IA. The results also show that an increase in IA restricts flow decreasing the nonwetting (oil) phase permeability. This decrease is caused by an increase in the throat area fraction compared to the corner area as the total area IA increases. The wetting phase relative permeability, however, shows the inverse trend, in that its relative permeability is greater when IA becomes larger owing to a greater fraction of the total area associated with the corners. The area IA, however, impacts the nonwetting phase relative permeability more than the wetting phase relative permeability. Corner flow improves the wetting phase relative permeability because the wetting phase is continuous there. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that relative permeability a is more sensitive to change in S than they are for IA for the case studied implying that if only two parameters are used to model relative permeability it is better to choose S and X.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bobfinchite, Na[(UO2)8O3(OH)11]·10H2O, a new Na-bearing member of the schoepite family

Abstract The new mineral bobfinchite (IMA2020-082), Na[(UO2)8O3(OH)11]·10H2O, was found in the Burro mine, Slick Rock district, San Miguel County, Colorado, U.S.A., where it occurs as an oxidation product of uraninite on asphaltite matrix in intimate association with gypsum, natrozippeite, metaschoepite, and uranopilite. Bobfinchite crystals are transparent to translucent, yellow, lozenge-shaped disks up to 0.3 mm wide. Crystals are flattened on [100] and exhibit the forms {100}, {011}, {021}, {021}, and {011}. Bobfinchite has a pale-yellow streak and emits very dim yellow fluorescence under 365 nm ultraviolet illumination. The crystals are brittle with very good {100} cleavage and irregular, stepped fracture. The Mohs hardness is ca. 2 based on scratch tests. The calculated density is 5.044 g/cm3 based on the empirical formula and 5.036 g/cm3 for the ideal formula. Bobfinchite is optically biaxial (–), with α = 1.690(5), β = 1.7205(5), and γ = 1.730(5) (white light). The measured 2V, estimated from the interference figure, is 55(5)° and the calculated value is 59.1°. Dispersion is moderate, r > v; orientation: X = a, Y = b, Z = c; pleochroism: X nearly colorless, Y yellow, Z yellow; X < Y ≈Z. Electron microprobe analysis provided the empirical formula (Na0.99Pb0.02)[(UO2)7.99O3(OH)11]·10H2O. The five strongest X-ray powder diffraction lines are [dobs in Å(I)(hkl)]: 7.34(100)(200), 3.59(50)(024), 3.23(60)(224), 3.18(36)(240), and 2.01(23)(624,551,208,640,346). Bobfinchite is orthorhombic, Pbcn, a = 14.6249(9), b = 14.0389(10), c = 16.6923(10) Å, V = 3427.2(4) Å3, and Z = 4. The structure of bobfinchite (R1 = 0.0330 for 3770 I > 4σI) is built from uranyl oxide-hydroxide sheets that adopt the fourmarierite topology, with interlayer Na+ and H2O groups. Both the sheet and interlayer topology mimic those observed in natural and synthetic Na-metaschoepites studied previously, and as seen in other uranyl oxide hydrate minerals, charge balance is achieved at specific sites in the sheet through the substitution O2– ↔ (OH)–.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan (Version 2.4c)

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

ATF material model development and validation for priority fuel concepts

Development, implementation, and validation of material and behavior models for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts in the Bison fuel performance code began in 2014 in response to the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daichii nuclear power plant in March 2011. Early on the focus was on U 3 Si 2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding as part of a high impact problem through the Nuclear Energy and Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) program. Then, developments for Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, and SiC-SiC and Cr-coated zirconium-based claddings began based upon industry interests. In late fiscal year 2018 the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) took over further ATF work in Bison in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Discussions with the NRC identified their list of priority fuel and cladding concepts, which included Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 fuels, and Cr-coated zirconium-based and FeCrAl claddings. In particular, the NRC suggested that reports similar in form to NUREG/CR-7024 [1] that was developed for traditional LWR materials UO 2 and zirconium-based claddings (i.e., Zircaloy-4, M5®, ZIRLO) be created for the priority ATF concepts. The approach to ATF capability development in Bison since the beginning has been two-fold: (1) empirical correlations and (2) multiscale model development. Both approaches have uncertainty inherent to them. Uncertainty in empirical correlations is bounded by the experimental data upon which with the correlation was developed. Models developed through a multiscale approach have uncertainty associated with the lower length scale calculations and input parameters that must be propagated to the engineering scale model in Bison. In this report, the recommended models, their range of applicability (e.g., temperature, burnup), and associated uncertainty for the NRC priority fuel concepts Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 are presented in a manner similar to the aforementioned NUREG. In addition, the Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 models are validated to the Halden Reactor tess IFA-677.1 rods 1 and 5 and IFA-716.1 rod 1. For U 3 Si 2 the models are validated to the recent post-irradiation examination (PIE) data ATF-13 and ATF-15 rods that were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory. Finally, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is completed on a single rod for each fuel concept that takes into account the defined uncertainty in select models. The results of the UQ and SA analyses indicate that given the large uncertainty in some of the input ATF models that the uncertainty on the Bison predictions of fuel performance metrics of interest bound the available experimental data. Correlation coefficients are also reported that identified the uncertain inputs with the strongest correlation (positive or negative) with the outputs of interest. Fuel performance metrics investigated include fuel elongation, rod internal pressure, fuel centerline temperature, and fission gas release.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Modeling and Diagnostic Monitoring of Extreme Science Workflows (Final Report)

This proposal addresses a critical issue of performance prediction identified in the report from the ASCR \Computational Modeling of Big Networks (COMBINE)" workshop: "end-to-end performance is not predictable due to a variety of factors. Even when some performance forecasts or predictions can be made, they often cannot explain the reasons why some predictions fail." We will develop new analytical models to predict the end-to-end performance of scientific workflows on DOE computing infrastructures, and use simulations and experimentation to validate and refine these models, as well as to pinpoint the sources of model inaccuracy. We will also use these models to help diagnose application and infrastructure problems, and to adapt the system based on this diagnosis. This section provides background in the areas relevant to the proposed work. RPI’s specific tasks within the Panorama project are as follows: (1) Develop Aspen-Simulation interface for Workflow Model Driven Simulation. (2) Validate manual performance models of two target workflow scenarios with empirical measurement and simulation. (3) Extend ROSS-Aspen API to simulate workflow descriptions when required. (4) Validate Aspen performance models of two target workflow scenarios with automatic performance model empirical measurement and simulation. (5) Design and implement final system to automatically generate Aspen performance models from workflow descriptions (including methods to compensate for limitations of Aspen analytical models). (6) Validate improved Aspen performance models with target workflow on production infrastructure. To date, all the project milestones assigned to us where reached within the best of our abilities over the course of the project performance period. Below describes the key outcome from our collaborative research in a system named, Durango .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations on the Sierra High-Performance Computing System

Physics-based three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of earthquake ground motions provide an alternative to reliance on limited and highly scattered empirical data and models for seismic hazard assessment. We performed fully 3D earthquake ground motion simulations on the Sierra and Lassen high-performance computing (HPC) platforms at Livermore Computing. These new HPC platforms feature graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration for improved performance. Ground motions were computed with SW4, a summation-by-parts finite difference code for anelastic wave propagation. SW4 was recently enhanced to run efficiently on GPU-accelerated platforms. We found that SW4 runs almost fifty (50) times faster in terms of node-hours on new GPU-accelerated platforms compared to conventional central processing unit (CPU) platforms with agreement of computed ground motion time-series to the full single precision which they are written. We focused on moment magnitude, M W , 7.0 earthquakes on the Hayward Fault. We were able to run three simulations resolving ground motions from static displacements (0 Hz) to frequencies of 10 Hz (wavelengths as short as 50 meters) making these Sierra calculations the highest resolution regional-scale earthquake simulations ever made for California. Results show good agreement between simulated ground motion intensities (peak ground velocity and acceleration, spectral response) and empirical models, including frequencies above 10 Hz. On Lassen we were able to run a suite of 52 M W 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake simulations resolved 0-5 Hz for both plane-layered, one-dimensional (1D) and 3D Earth models. These simulations were used to develop a methodology for characterizing and removing systematic path and site effects which bias ground motion intensities. These simulations using the newly enhanced SW4 code allow us to run higher resolution seismic simulations with shorter run times, providing a new capability for seismic hazard and risk studies. Results were presented at scientific conferences and workshops and two publications are being prepared based on work performed in this project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Data Sources for Improved Safeguards and Accountancy of Electrochemical Fuel Reprocessing Systems. Final Report

Electrochemical reprocessing (also commonly known as “pyroprocessing”) of used nuclear fuel is an alternative to aqueous reprocessing that confers a number of advantages, including the ability to process more recently-discharged fuel, smaller resultant waste volumes, and the lack of isolation of plutonium in the product stream. While electrochemical reprocessing systems have seen a significant research and development effort, nuclear safeguards and security of these systems remains under-developed, particularly given the significant differences in operating environment and process flowsheet compared with established aqueous methods. Objective 4 of DOE’s nuclear energy research and development activities in Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap is: “Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.” Material Control & Accountancy (MC&A) programs at nuclear processing plants deter and detect theft and diversion of nuclear material by both outside and inside adversaries. Empirical modeling and data analytics of online measurements and state indicators can improve the timeliness of detection and reduce the uncertainty in accountancy measures. To support the development and demonstration of such methods, data are needed that capture expected measurement values collected throughout electrochemical reprocessing facilities. A review of the available literature of current research in measurements for electrochemical reprocessing systems identified twenty-two candidate measurement methodologies, which characterize fuel/salt composition, concentrations of various isotopes and elements, and operational parameters throughout the reprocessing facility. Four primary measurement methodologies have been simulated based on either physical simulations or empirical correlations: gamma emissions, neutron emissions, hybrid k-edge densitometry (HKED), and cyclic voltammetry. Initial investigation into the use of these measures for process monitoring and detection suggests the approach is viable and worthy of further investigation. This report summarizes efforts to generate signatures of key measurements during operation of electrochemical reprocessing facilities and initial investigation of data analytics to support process monitoring, diversion detection, and accountancy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

ATF material model development and validation for priority cladding concepts

Development, implementation, and validation of material and behavior models for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts in the Bison fuel performance code began in 2014 in response to the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daichii nuclear power plant in March 2011. Early on the focus was on U 3 Si 2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding as part of a high impact problem through the Nuclear Energy and Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) program. Then, developments for Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fuel, and SiC-SiC and Cr-coated zirconium-based claddings began based upon industry interests. In late fiscal year 2018 the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) took over further ATF work in Bison in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Discussions with the NRC identified their list of priority fuel and cladding concepts, which included Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 and U 3 Si 2 fuels, and Cr-coated zirconium-based and FeCrAl claddings. In particular, the NRC suggested that reports similar in form to NUREG/CR-7024 that was developed for traditional LWR materials UO 2 and zirconium-based claddings (i.e., Zircaloy-4, M5 ® , ZIRLO TM ) be created for the priority ATF concepts. The approach to ATF capability development in Bison since the beginning has been two-fold: (1) empirical correlations and (2) multiscale model development. Both approaches have uncertainty inherent to them. Uncertainty in empirical correlations is bounded by the experimental data upon which with the correlation was developed. Models developed through a multiscale approach have uncertainty associated with the lower length scale calculations and input parameters that must be propagated to the engineering scale model in Bison. In this report, the recommended models, their range of applicability (e.g., temperature, fluence), and associated uncertainty for the NRC priority clad concepts Cr-coated zirconium based clad and FeCrAl are presented in a manner similar to the aforementioned NUREG. In addition, in the absence of experimental data for validation, demonstration cases are presented that investigate the ballooning and burst behavior of Cr-coated and FeCrAl clads as well as tritium permeation in FeCrAl. A portion of the study by Gamble et al. on FeCrAl failure is also revisited with the latest updated models. First, the nominal results are shown using the as implemented models. Then a sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is performed to assess the impact of the uncertainties in the models on the parameters of interest. For the Cr-clad ballooning case the parameter of interest is the time to burst. For the revisited FeCrAl study, the parameter of interest is the pressure at burst.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fluidization of Group A Glass Particles: Experiments and Preliminary Validation

This work is aimed at providing reliable high-quality data from fluidization experiments. Geldart Group A glass beads are used as bed material. The fluidizing medium is air at atmospheric pressure which enters the system at 40% relative humidity. The air inlet velocity is varied over a broad range from 2 U mf to 26 U mf , where the minimum fluidization velocity, U mf , is 0.608 cm/s. There is not a significant change in the mean values of differential pressure; however, there are noticeable trends in their standard deviation values. Preliminary validation studies are performed using the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The results from Eulerian-Eulerian (MFiX-TFM, two-fluid model) and Eulerian-Lagrangian (MFiX-PIC, particle-in-cell) formulations are compared. The work presented in this report highlights the applicability of MFiX-PIC for large-scale applications, and reveals that PIC simulation offers a suitable alternative to TFM simulation when effects due to multiple components or polydispersity are significant. PIC modeling provides a readily extendible framework for such systems. However, PIC models do rely on an empirical closure for inter-particle stress. Some solution discrepancies were evident in MFiX-PIC predictions which require further analysis. As such, the study underlines the need for a systematic approach to quantify the sources of numerical uncertainty within the PIC model. However, even with known empiricism, MFiX-PIC has demonstrated considerable potential in analyzing gas-solid systems. The results obtained are encouraging and warrant further investigation to improve the predictive capability of MFiX-PIC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transient Testing of Nuclear Fuels Performed in the Original Operation of TREAT (2nd ed.)

This report provides summary information on experiments performed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) during its original operation from 1959-1994, and more specifically, before the TREAT core was upgraded at the end of the 1980s. The tests performed since about 1970 are summarized in considerable detail. Earlier tests are noted by their designated series and by some parameters that help to identify and distinguish each series from the others. The detailed summary descriptions are intended to help inform future researchers regarding the large, historical, empirical data base generated from that 35-year span during which hundreds of TREAT experiments were performed to investigate and demonstrate the transient behavior of a wide variety of nuclear fuels during severe off-normal and accident conditions -- using direct nuclear heating of the test samples. That empirical basis is foundational and valuable for guiding future qualification and safety evaluation of improved fuel designs and for future transient test planning and performance in TREAT. Since Edition 1 of this report, descriptions of the following test series have been added: D, E, EOS, F, H, J, R, RX, and S.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗