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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Report describes approach that uses computer model and can determine configurations with optimum reliability and least cost. Approach in application to modelling computer-controlled data management systems differs from conventional reliability analysis in that it considers systems organized around data base and looks at systems from equipment level rather than from component level.
The technical and economic aspects of satellite solar power systems are presented with a focus on the current configuration 5000 MW system. The technical studies include analyses of the orbital system structures, control and stationkeeping, and the formulation of program plans and costs for input to the economic analyses. The economic analyses centered about the development and use of a risk analysis model for a system cost assessment, identification of critical issues and technologies, and to provide information for programmatic decision making. A preliminary economic examination of some utility interface issues is included. Under the present state-of-knowledge, it is possible to formulate a program plan for the development of a satellite solar power system that can be economically justified. The key area of technological uncertainty is man's ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space.
Metal is most commonly used structural material in a wide range of spacecraft, and welding is the principal method for joining metal components into functional systems. However, conducting welding experiments under extreme environments—such as microgravity or vacuum conditions in space—is prohibitively expensive and experimentally challenging. To overcome these limitations, multi-physics computational welding models provide a cost-effective and versatile alternative. In this work, the authors have developed a coupled thermal (fluid) microstructure simulation framework to model metal welding under varying gravity conditions. The framework integrates a mixed-mode heat transfer formulation (conduction, convection, and radiation) with molten pool fluid dynamics, enabling accurate prediction of temperature fields and weld-pool geometry. A grain growth model is further incorporated to capture the spatial and temporal evolution of microstructure, including grain size distribution and morphological transitions during solidification. This approach provides detailed insight into molten pool evolution and grain-level microstructure development throughout the welding process. By explicitly parameterizing environmental conditions, the model supports extrapolation to off-Earth manufacturing scenarios such as welding on the lunar surface. Tantalum—chosen in this study due to its high melting point, oxidation resistance, and mechanical stability at elevated temperatures—serves as the material system for model demonstration. Beyond Tantalum, the integrated multi-physics framework offers broad applicability for predictive welding simulations of various structural and refractory metals or alloys used in extreme terrestrial or extraterrestrial environments.
Municipal solid waste infrastructure in the United States contains complex supply chains to transport, sort, and sequester waste. This project developed models to estimate the environmental and economic costs of waste infrastructure in the U.S. using data from several municipalities. Life cycle costing (LCC) models were developed for waste management relevant supply chain steps, including waste collection, sorting, landfilling, waste-to-energy, ash processing, and recycling. A waste-to-materials and energy (WTM&E) life cycle analysis (LCA) and LCC dashboard was developed in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and an LCC tool was developed for additional analysis.
Fluid flow in the transonic regime finds relevance in aerospace engineering, particularly in the design of commercial air transportation vehicles. Computational fluid dynamics models of transonic flow for aerospace applications are computationally expensive to solve because of the high degrees of freedom as well as the coupled nature of the conservation laws. While these issues pose a bottleneck for the use of such models in aerospace design, computational costs can be significantly minimized by constructing special, structure-preserving surrogate models called reduced-order models. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to construct reduced-order models via deep neural networks and we demonstrate its ability to preserve accuracy with a significantly lower computational cost. In addition, our machine learning methodology is physics-informed and constrained through the utilization of an interpretable encoding by way of proper orthogonal decomposition. Application to the inviscid transonic flow past the RAE2822 airfoil under varying freestream Mach numbers and angles of attack, as well as airfoil shape parameters with a deforming mesh, shows that the proposed approach adapts to high-dimensional parameter variation well. Notably, the proposed framework precludes the knowledge of numerical operators utilized in the data generation phase, thereby demonstrating its potential utility in the fast exploration of design space for diverse engineering applications. Comparison against a projection-based nonintrusive model order reduction method demonstrates that the proposed approach produces comparable accuracy and yet is orders of magnitude computationally cheap to evaluate, despite being agnostic to the physics of the problem.
DOE-EM's Consolidated Business Center (EM-CBC) Office of Cost Estimating has developed a system of Decommissioning Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) and Models to improve the reliability and efficiency of its estimates. The development builds on the multi-year process of collecting and organizing historical cost data from DOEEMs decommissioning projects and estimate model development to support project and program-level decommissioning estimates. The latest work has extended these models down to project scope element and component building area levels, allowing the actual costs of work for these estimate components to be assembled into estimates that reflect specific projects. The CERs have been incorporated into two estimator-friendly products - as cost libraries in the MII estimating program and as an MS Excel-based model, and are available for DOE federal staff use. (authors)
Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.
NLR's Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership (T3CO) model provides realistic and robust analysis, capturing the impact of real world duty cycles and their variability in operating and opportunity costs. Case studies show that these contributions to costs can be significant and can alter conclusions about technology cost effectiveness.
The findings and recommendations of the Earth and Ocean Physics working group of the space shuttle payload planning activity are presented. The requirements for the space shuttle mission are defined as: (1) precision measurement for earth and ocean physics experiments, (2) development and demonstration of new and improved sensors and analytical techniques, (3) acquisition of surface truth data for evaluation of new measurement techniques, (4) conduct of critical experiments to validate geophysical phenomena and instrumental results, and (5) development and validation of analytical/experimental models for global ocean dynamics and solid earth dynamics/earthquake prediction. Tables of data are presented to show the flight schedule estimated costs, and the mission model.
MESSOC (Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs) is the result of a multi-year effort by NASA to understand and model the mature operations cost of Space Station Freedom. This paper focuses on MESSOC's ability to contribute to life-cycle cost analyses through its logistics equations and databases. Together, these afford MESSOC the capability to project not only annual logistics costs for a variety of Space Station scenarios, but critical non-cost logistics results such as annual Station maintenance crewhours, upweight/downweight, and on-orbit sparing availability as well. MESSOC results using current logistics databases and baseline scenario have already shown important implications for on-orbit maintenance approaches, space transportation systems, and international operations cost sharing.
The overarching objective of this USAMP project was to develop and demonstrate door panels made from magnesium (Mg) sheet with a cost penalty over conventional steel stampings of no more than $\$5.50$/kg saved. The technical approach integrated experiments with advanced computational tools based on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods to develop new alloy chemistries and their thermomechanical processing that promise improved formability and lower forming temperatures. A penultimate task before finally forming the stampings was to incorporate actual microstructure into models that would enable formability simulations. This approach would, for the first time, account for individual magnesium grains moving in an anisotropic fashion unlike that for aluminum or steel that have isotropic properties upon which the current simulation tools are based. In separate activities, new coatings and lubricants to facilitate forming and improved corrosion protection and joining strategies, were developed to ensure that the door could be produced with stated product requirements. A technical cost model, which included parts production, assembly, and paint for a door specifically designed for Mg sheet, showed the cost penalty to be between $\$4.26$ to $\$6.60$/kg saved, which enveloped the project’s cost targets. The cost of the coated Mg sheet was identified as the key driver for the cost penalty. The mass of the Mg-intensive door was 7.9 kg, which was 54% less than the baseline steel door.
A design strategy which integrates model reduction by modal cost analysis and a multiobjective controller synthesis algorithm is used to design controllers for NASA's Mini-Mast system. The necessary modeling and control algorithms are easily programmed in Matlab standard software. Hence, this method is very practical for controller design for large space structures. The design algorithm also presents a solution for the important problem of tuning multiple-loop controllers.
The overarching objective of this USAMP project was to develop and demonstrate door panels made from magnesium (Mg) sheet with a cost penalty over conventional steel stampings of no more than $5.50/kg saved. The technical approach integrated experiments with advanced computational tools based on Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods to develop new alloy chemistries and their thermomechanical processing that promise improved formability and lower forming temperatures. A penultimate task before finally forming the stampings was to incorporate actual microstructure into models that would enable formability simulations. This approach would, for the first time, account for individual magnesium grains moving in an anisotropic fashion unlike that for aluminum or steel that have isotropic properties upon which the current simulation tools are based. In separate activities, new coatings and lubricants to facilitate forming and improved corrosion protection and joining strategies, were developed to ensure that the door could be produced with stated product requirements. A technical cost model, which included parts production, assembly, and paint for a door specifically designed for Mg sheet, showed the cost penalty to be between 4.26 USD to 6.60 USD/kg saved, which enveloped the project’s cost targets. The cost of the coated Mg sheet was identified as the key driver for the cost penalty. The mass of the Mg-intensive door was 7.9 kg, which was 54% less than the baseline steel door.
One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.
Because of high rejection rates for large structural castings (e.g., the Space Shuttle Main Engine Alternate Turbopump Design Program), a reliable casting simulation computer code is very desirable. This code would reduce both the development time and life cycle costs by allowing accurate modeling of the entire casting process. While this code could be used for other types of castings, the most significant reductions of time and cost would probably be realized in complex investment castings, where any reduction in the number of development castings would be of significant benefit. The casting process is conveniently divided into three distinct phases: (1) mold filling, where the melt is poured or forced into the mold cavity; (2) solidification, where the melt undergoes a phase change to the solid state; and (3) cool down, where the solidified part continues to cool to ambient conditions. While these phases may appear to be separate and distinct, temporal overlaps do exist between phases (e.g., local solidification occurring during mold filling), and some phenomenological events are affected by others (e.g., residual stresses depend on solidification and cooling rates). Therefore, a reliable code must accurately model all three phases and the interactions between each. While many codes have been developed (to various stages of complexity) to model the solidification and cool down phases, only a few codes have been developed to model mold filling.
A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.
Over the last decade, the incidence of wildfires has surged, causing widespread destruction globally. To better comprehend and manage these incidents, remote sensing and aerial missions have been implemented in recent efforts. However, this has resulted in an exponential rise in the amount of remote sensing data utilization, leading to a need for intelligent automation of data extraction in wildfire studies. Machine learning provides an accurate automated approach for detecting these natural anomalies and facilitates decision-makers to take prompt actions. To make insightful decisions in wildfire management, it is imperative to move beyond simple detection and explore the potential of probabilistic generative machine learning for creating "what-if" scenarios for various wildfire conditions. Such models offer improved representation of the stochastic nature of wildfire events. However, the optimization of these models can be computationally expensive, especially when using classical computers. Quantum computers have recently emerged as a promising solution to reduce the computational cost of training such models and improve their performance. In this study, we aim to utilize quantum-compatible machine learning techniques to implement our probabilistic generative approach. To that end, we propose a supervised probabilistic variational model consisting of a U-NET-based image-to-image component along with encoder and decoder networks which work as a variational autoencoder (VAE) component. Additionally, we explore the type of latent distribution type in the VAE component and implement different means for modeling the prior distribution. We further investigate the quantum-compatible versions of the model compared to the classical counterpart and benchmark potential benefits of quantum compatibility over the classical model.
The benefits-to-cost ratio of satellite remote sensing, both as a substitute for conventional methods of monitoring and assessing resources, and as a supplement to these methods is examined using a model which analyzes the cost of aerial photography versus satellite scanner for producing and interpreting an image of the Earth's surface sized to LANDSAT dimensions. Examples of cost savings are tabulated for ground surveys, aerial photos, and LANDSAT. Possible additional benefits from LANDSAT D are assessed. The way in which satellites fit into more comprehensive models for resources management is discussed. It is shown that remote sensing is but one essential component in a complex system that aggregates technical. Socioeconomics, political, cultural, and other factors in the human decision process.