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DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially and Temporally Detailed Water and Carbon Footprints of U.S. Electricity Generation and Use

Electricity generation in the United States entails significant water usage and greenhouse gas emissions. However, accurately estimating these impacts is complex due to the intricate nature of the electric grid and the dynamic electricity mix. Existing methods to estimate the environmental consequences of electricity use often generalize across large regions, neglecting spatial and temporal variations in water usage and emissions. Consequently, electric grid dynamics, such as temporal fluctuations in renewable energy resources, are often overlooked in efforts to mitigate environmental impacts. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has initiated the development of resilient energyshed management systems, requiring detailed information on the local electricity mix and its environmental impacts. This study supports DOE's goal by incorporating geographic and temporal variations in the electricity mix of the local electric grid to better understand the environmental impacts of electricity end users. We offer hourly estimates of the U.S. electricity mix, detailing fuel types, water withdrawal intensity, and water consumption intensity for each grid balancing authority through our publicly accessible tool, the Water Integrated Mapping of Power and Carbon Tracker (Water IMPACT). While our primary focus is on evaluating water intensity factors, our dataset and programming scripts for historical and real-time analysis also include evaluations of carbon dioxide (equivalence) intensity within the same modeling framework. This integrated approach offers a comprehensive understanding of the environmental footprint associated with electricity generation and use, enabling informed decision-making to effectively reduce Scope 2 water usage and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stormwater Storage and Retention Within an Urban Prairie Wetland Complex

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the Great Lakes region. In many cities, flood-control infrastructure is insufficient to protect against future climate conditions. Consequently, there is increasing focus on stormwater storage provided by urban greenspace, such as wetlands and prairies, but the ecohydrological behavior of these ecosystems is not well understood when they are embedded within cities. To improve understanding of hydrological connectivity between urban areas and natural greenspaces, we deployed a sensor network in Gensburg Markham Prairie (GMP), a large intact prairie-wetland complex in south suburban Chicago. We used the resulting high-frequency time-series data to assess surface-subsurface hydrologic dynamics between upland and low-lying wetland areas, interactions between the prairie and surrounding environment, and stormwater storage provided by the prairie. Rapid infiltration within the prairie during and after storm events provides subsurface flow that stores considerable water, flattens storm hydrographs, and increases the wetland hydroperiod. Much of the stormwater input to GMP derives from the surrounding cityscape. Consequently, storage within the prairie-wetland system reduces and slows stormwater discharge to downstream urban communities. For a typical 5-year 24-hr storm with 10.9 cm of rain, GMP stores 77,100 m 3 , 64% greater than the estimated direct rainfall volume onto the prairie, yielding 30,000 m 3 of offsite stormwater storage. This improved understanding of ecohydrological dynamics in urban prairies and wetlands informs the design and implementation of green infrastructure to meet growing needs for stormwater management.

Rivera, Vivien Anne [Northwestern University, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

DOE OSTI2017

Alpine soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate cooling

As climate cooling is increasingly regarded as important natural variability of long-term global warming trends, there is a resurging interest in understanding its impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here in this work, we report a soil transplant experiment from lower to higher elevations in a Tibetan alpine grassland to simulate the impact of cooling on ecosystem community structure and function. Three years of cooling resulted in reduced plant productivity and microbial functional potential (for example, carbon respiration and nutrient cycling). Microbial genetic markers associated with chemically recalcitrant carbon decomposition remained unchanged despite a decrease in genes associated with chemically labile carbon decomposition. As a consequence, cooling-associated changes correlated with a decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC). Extrapolation of these results suggests that for every 1°C decrease in annual average air temperature, 0.1 Pg (0.3%) of SOC would be lost from the Tibetan plateau. These results demonstrate that microbial feedbacks to cooling have the potential to differentially impact chemically labile and recalcitrant carbon turnover, which could lead to strong, adverse consequences on soil C storage. Lastly, our findings are alarming, considering the frequency of short-term cooling and its scale to disrupt ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Succession in the petroleum reservoir microbiome through an oil field production lifecycle

Subsurface petroleum reservoirs are an important component of the deep biosphere where indigenous microorganisms live under extreme conditions and in isolation from the Earth's surface for millions of years. However, unlike the bulk of the deep biosphere, the petroleum reservoir deep biosphere is subject to extreme anthropogenic perturbation, with the introduction of new electron acceptors, donors and exogenous microbes during oil exploration and production. Despite the fundamental and practical significance of this perturbation, there has never been a systematic evaluation of the ecological changes that occur over the production lifetime of an active offshore petroleum production system. Analysis of the entire Halfdan oil field in the North Sea (32 producing wells in production for 1-15 years) using quantitative PCR, multigenic sequencing, comparative metagenomic and genomic bins reconstruction revealed systematic shifts in microbial community composition and metabolic potential, as well as changing ecological strategies in response to anthropogenic perturbation of the oil field ecosystem, related to length of time in production. The microbial communities were initially dominated by slow growing anaerobes such as members of the Thermotogales and Clostridiales adapted to living on hydrocarbons and complex refractory organic matter. However, as seawater and nitrate injection (used for secondary oil production) delivered oxidants, the microbial community composition progressively changed to fast growing opportunists such as members of the Deferribacteres, Delta-, Epsilon- and Gammaproteobacteria, with energetically more favorable metabolism (for example, nitrate reduction, H2S, sulfide and sulfur oxidation). This perturbation has profound consequences for understanding the microbial ecology of the system and is of considerable practical importance as it promotes detrimental processes such as reservoir souring and metal corrosion. These findings provide a new conceptual framework for understanding the petroleum reservoir biosphere and have consequences for developing strategies to manage microbiological problems in the oil industry.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2018

Characterizing cellular mechanical phenotypes with mechano-node-pore sensing

The mechanical properties of cells change with their differentiation, chronological age, and malignant progression. Consequently, these properties may be useful label-free biomarkers of various functional or clinically relevant cell states. Here, we demonstrate mechano-node-pore sensing (mechano-NPS), a multi-parametric single-cell-analysis method that utilizes a four-terminal measurement of the current across a microfluidic channel to quantify simultaneously cell diameter, resistance to compressive deformation, transverse deformation under constant strain, and recovery time after deformation. We define a new parameter, the whole-cell deformability index (wCDI), which provides a quantitative mechanical metric of the resistance to compressive deformation that can be used to discriminate among different cell types. The wCDI and the transverse deformation under constant strain show malignant MCF-7 and A549 cell lines are mechanically distinct from non-malignant, MCF-10A and BEAS-2B cell lines, and distinguishes between cells treated or untreated with cytoskeleton-perturbing small molecules. We categorize cell recovery time, ΔTr, as instantaneous (ΔTr ~ 0 ms), transient (ΔTr≤40 ms), or prolonged (ΔTr440 ms), and show that the composition of recovery types, which is a consequence of changes in cytoskeletal organization, correlates with cellular transformation. Through the wCDI and cell-recovery time, mechano-NPS discriminates between sub-lineages of normal primary human mammary epithelial cells with accuracy comparable to flow cytometry, but without antibody labeling. Mechano-NPS identifies mechanical phenotypes that distinguishes lineage, chronological age, and stage of malignant progression in human epithelial cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including a large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2016

Structural and mechanistic insights into regulation of the retromer coat by TBC1d5

Retromer is a membrane coat complex that is recruited to endosomes by the small GTPase Rab7 and sorting nexin 3. The timing of this interaction and consequent endosomal dynamics are thought to be regulated by the guanine nucleotide cycle of Rab7. Here we demonstrate that TBC1d5, a GTPase-activating protein (GAP) for Rab7, is a high-affinity ligand of the retromer cargo selective complex VPS26/VPS29/VPS35. The crystal structure of the TBC1d5 GAP domain bound to VPS29 and complementary biochemical and cellular data show that a loop from TBC1d5 binds to a conserved hydrophobic pocket on VPS29 opposite the VPS29–VPS35 interface. Additional data suggest that a distinct loop of the GAP domain may contact VPS35. Loss of TBC1d5 causes defective retromer-dependent trafficking of receptors. Our findings illustrate how retromer recruits a GAP, which is likely to be involved in the timing of Rab7 inactivation leading to membrane uncoating, with important consequences for receptor trafficking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Effectively suppressing dissolution of manganese from spinel lithium manganate via a nanoscale surface-doping approach

The capacity fade of lithium manganate-based cells is associated with the dissolution of Mn from cathode/electrolyte interface due to the disproportionation reaction of Mn( III), and the subsequent deposition of Mn(II) on the anode. Suppressing the dissolution of Mn from the cathode is critical to reducing capacity fade of LiMn2O4-based cells. Here we report a nanoscale surface-doping approach that minimizes Mn dissolution from lithium manganate. This approach exploits advantages of both bulk doping and surface-coating methods by stabilizing surface crystal structure of lithium manganate through cationic doping while maintaining bulk lithium manganate structure, and protecting bulk lithium manganate from electrolyte corrosion while maintaining ion and charge transport channels on the surface through the electrochemically active doping layer. Consequently, the surface-doped lithium manganate demonstrates enhanced electrochemical performance. This study provides encouraging evidence that surface doping could be a promising alternative to improve the cycling performance of lithium-ion batteries.

Lithium ion battery↗

DOE OSTI2017

A somatic-mutational process recurrently duplicates germline susceptibility loci and tissue-specific super-enhancers in breast cancers

Somatic rearrangements contribute to the mutagenized landscape of cancer genomes. Here, we systematically interrogated rearrangements in 560 breast cancers by using a piecewise constant fitting approach. We identified 33 hotspots of large (>100 kb) tandem duplications, a mutational signature associated with homologous-recombination-repair deficiency. Notably, these tandem-duplication hotspots were enriched in breast cancer germline susceptibility loci (odds ratio (OR) = 4.28) and breast-specific 'super-enhancer' regulatory elements (OR = 3.54). These hotspots may be sites of selective susceptibility to double-strand-break damage due to high transcriptional activity or, through incrementally increasing copy number, may be sites of secondary selective pressure. Furthermore, the transcriptomic consequences ranged from strong individual oncogene effects to weak but quantifiable multigene expression effects. We thus present a somatic-rearrangement mutational process affecting coding sequences and noncoding regulatory elements and contributing a continuum of driver consequences, from modest to strong effects, thereby supporting a polygenic model of cancer development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Tuning crystallization pathways through sequence engineering of biomimetic polymers

Two-step nucleation pathways in which disordered, amorphous, or dense liquid states precede the appearance of crystalline phases have been reported for a wide range of materials, but the dynamics of such pathways are poorly understood. Moreover, whether these pathways are general features of crystallizing systems or a consequence of system-specific structural details that select for direct versus two-step processes is unknown. Using atomic force microscopy to directly observe crystallization of sequence-defined polymers, we show that crystallization pathways are indeed sequence dependent. When a short hydrophobic region is added to a sequence that directly forms crystalline particles, crystallization instead follows a two-step pathway that begins with the creation of disordered clusters of 10–20 molecules and is characterized by highly non-linear crystallization kinetics in which clusters transform into ordered structures that then enter the growth phase. The results shed new light on non-classical crystallization mechanisms and have implications for the design of self-assembling polymer systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Anisotropic attosecond charge carrier dynamics and layer decoupling in quasi-2D layered SnS 2

Strong quantum confinement effects lead to striking new physics in two-dimensional materials such as graphene or transition metal dichalcogenides. While spectroscopic fingerprints of such quantum confinement have been demonstrated widely, the consequences for carrier dynamics are at present less clear, particularly on ultrafast timescales. This is important for tailoring, probing, and understanding spin and electron dynamics in layered and two-dimensional materials even in cases where the desired bandgap engineering has been achieved. Here in this paper we show by means of core–hole clock spectroscopy that SnS 2 exhibits spindependent attosecond charge delocalization times (τ deloc ) for carriers confined within a layer, τ deloc < 400 as, whereas interlayer charge delocalization is dynamically quenched in excess of a factor of 10, τ deloc > 2.7 fs. These layer decoupling dynamics are a direct consequence of strongly anisotropic screening established within attoseconds, and demonstrate that important two-dimensional characteristics are also present in bulk crystals of van der Waalslayered materials, at least on ultrafast timescales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strong and fragile topological Dirac semimetals with higher-order Fermi arcs

Abstract Dirac and Weyl semimetals both exhibit arc-like surface states. However, whereas the surface Fermi arcs in Weyl semimetals are topological consequences of the Weyl points themselves, the surface Fermi arcs in Dirac semimetals are not directly related to the bulk Dirac points, raising the question of whether there exists a topological bulk-boundary correspondence for Dirac semimetals. In this work, we discover that strong and fragile topological Dirac semimetals exhibit one-dimensional (1D) higher-order hinge Fermi arcs (HOFAs) as universal, direct consequences of their bulk 3D Dirac points. To predict HOFAs coexisting with topological surface states in solid-state Dirac semimetals, we introduce and layer a spinful model of an s – d -hybridized quadrupole insulator (QI). We develop a rigorous nested Jackiw–Rebbi formulation of QIs and HOFA states. Employing ab initio calculations, we demonstrate HOFAs in both the room- ( α ) and intermediate-temperature ( α ″ ) phases of Cd 3 As 2 , KMgBi, and rutile-structure ( $$ \beta ^{\prime} $$ β ′ -) PtO 2 .

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Room-temperature polariton quantum fluids in halide perovskites

Abstract Quantum fluids exhibit quantum mechanical effects at the macroscopic level, which contrast strongly with classical fluids. Gain-dissipative solid-state exciton-polaritons systems are promising emulation platforms for complex quantum fluid studies at elevated temperatures. Recently, halide perovskite polariton systems have emerged as materials with distinctive advantages over other room-temperature systems for future studies of topological physics, non-Abelian gauge fields, and spin-orbit interactions. However, the demonstration of nonlinear quantum hydrodynamics, such as superfluidity and Čerenkov flow, which is a consequence of the renormalized elementary excitation spectrum, remains elusive in halide perovskites. Here, using homogenous halide perovskites single crystals, we report, in both one- and two-dimensional cases, the complete set of quantum fluid phase transitions from normal classical fluids to scatterless polariton superfluids and supersonic fluids—all at room temperature, clear consequences of the Landau criterion. Specifically, the supersonic Čerenkov wave pattern was observed at room temperature. The experimental results are also in quantitative agreement with theoretical predictions from the dissipative Gross-Pitaevskii equation. Our results set the stage for exploring the rich non-equilibrium quantum fluid many-body physics at room temperature and also pave the way for important polaritonic device applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect

The fractional increase in global mean precipitation (?P ¯/P ¯) is a first-order measure of the hydrological cycle intensification under anthropogenic warming. However, ?P ¯/P ¯ varies by a factor of more than three among model projections, hindering credible assessments of the associated climate impacts. The uncertainty in ?P ¯/P ¯ stems from uncertainty in both hydrological sensitivity (global mean precipitation increase per unit warming) and climate sensitivity (global mean temperature increase per forcing). Here, by investigating hydrological and climate sensitivities in a unified surface-energy-balance perspective, we find that both sensitivities are significantly correlated with surface shortwave cloud feedback, which is further linked to the climatological pattern of cloud shortwave effect. The observed pattern of cloud effect thus constrains both sensitivities and consequently constrains ?P ¯/P ¯. The 5%-95% uncertainty range of ?P ¯/P ¯ from 1979-2005 to 2080-2100 under the high-emission (moderate-emission) scenario is constrained from 6.34±3.53% (4.19±2.28%) in the raw ensemble-model projection to 7.03±2.59% (4.63±1.71%). The constraint thus suggests a higher most-likely ?P ¯/P ¯ and reduces the uncertainty by ~25%, providing valuable information for impact assessments.

Zhou, Wenyu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes on photosynthetic electron transport and photoprotection

In photosynthetic thylakoid membranes the proton motive force (pmf) not only drives ATP synthesis, in addition it is central to controlling and regulating energy conversion. As a consequence, dynamic fine-tuning of the two pmf components, electrical (Δψ) and chemical (ΔpH), is an essential element for adjusting photosynthetic light reactions to changing environmental conditions. Good evidence exists that the Δψ/ΔpH partitioning is controlled by thylakoid potassium and chloride ion transporters and channels. However, a detailed mechanistic understanding of how these thylakoid ion transporter/channels control pmf partitioning is lacking. In this work, we combined functional measurements on potassium and chloride ion transporter and channel loss-of-function mutants with extended mathematical simulations of photosynthetic light reactions in thylakoid membranes to obtain detailed kinetic insights into the complex interrelationship between membrane energization and ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes. The data reveal that potassium and chloride fluxes in the thylakoid lumen determined by the K + /H + antiporter KEA3 and the voltage-gated Cl – channel VCCN1/Best1 have distinct kinetic responses that lead to characteristic and light-intensity-dependent Δψ/ΔpH oscillations. These oscillations fine-tune photoprotective mechanisms and electron transport which are particularly important during the first minutes of illumination and under fluctuating light conditions. By employing the predictive power of the model, we unravelled the functional consequences of changes in KEA3 and VCCN1 abundance and regulatory/enzymatic parameters on membrane energization and photoprotection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗