Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,351 records · Page 75

The Extravehicular Suit Impact Load Attenuation Study for Use in Astronaut Bone Fracture Prediction

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fracture of the proximal femur is a traumatic injury that would likely result in loss of mission if it were to happen during spaceflight. The low gravity exposure causes decreases in bone mineral density which heightens the concern. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have quantified bone fracture probability during spaceflight with a probabilistic model. It was assumed that a pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit would attenuate load during a fall, but no supporting data was available. The suit impact load attenuation study was performed to collect analogous data. METHODS: A pressurized EVA suit analog test bed was used to study how the offset, defined as the gap between the suit and the astronaut s body, impact load magnitude and suit operating pressure affects the attenuation of impact load. The attenuation data was incorporated into the probabilistic model of bone fracture as a function of these factors, replacing a load attenuation value based on commercial hip protectors. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offsets. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1 - 1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22 and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400 and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8 - 5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1 and 0.84 +/- 0.5, for the same mean impact forces. Reductions were observed in the 95th percentile confidence interval of the bone fracture probability predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and operational decisions.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

Entanglement phase transitions in random stabilizer tensor networks

Here we explore a class of random tensor network models with “stabilizer” local tensors which we name random stabilizer tensor networks (RSTNs). For RSTNs defined on a two-dimensional square lattice, we perform extensive numerical studies of entanglement phase transitions between volume-law and area-law entangled phases of the one-dimensional boundary states. These transitions occur when either (a) the bond dimension D of the constituent tensors is varied or (b) the tensor network is subject to random breaking of bulk bonds, implemented by forced measurements. In the absence of broken bonds, we find that the RSTN supports a volume-law entangled boundary state with bond dimension D ≥ 3 where D is a prime number, and an area-law entangled boundary state for D = 2. Upon breaking bonds at random in the bulk with probability p, there exists a critical measurement rate p c for each D ≥ 3 above which the boundary state becomes area-law entangled. To explore the conformal invariance at these entanglement transitions for different prime D, we consider tensor networks on a finite rectangular geometry with a variety of boundary conditions, and extract universal operator scaling dimensions via extensive numerical calculations of the entanglement entropy, mutual information, and mutual negativity at their respective critical points. Our results at large D approach known universal data of percolation conformal field theory, while showing clear discrepancies at smaller D, suggesting a distinct entanglement transition universality class for each prime D. We further study universal entanglement properties in the volume-law phase and demonstrate quantitative agreement with the recently proposed description in terms of a directed polymer in a random environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comprehensive Margin Assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules

This report provides a comprehensive margin assessment of the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules for the design of high temperature reactor components against load controlled stress limits. These rules, often called the Code primary load design rules, provide protection against creep rupture and plastic collapse under steady conditions. The method adopted here is to compare the deterministic ASME design life, according to the primary load design rules, against the expected, statistical service life of the component, considering creep rupture as the relevant failure mode. The report provides the design margin of the ASME rules in terms of the probability of premature failure -- the probability that the component fails in service before reaching the ASME design life. To complete this assessment, the report describes the development of a statistical creep life assessment procedure accounting for variations in the component loading, material creep rate, and the material rupture time. This includes a novel method for correlating creep rupture data using a Gaussian process accounting for heat-to-heat variation in the Larson-Miller time-temperature parameter. The report applies the complete margin assessment process to quantify the design margin inherent in the ASME primary load design rules as a function of temperature for relevant component geometries and materials. The overall conclusion is that the ASME rules are conservative, providing designs with very small probability of premature failure, but some optimization of the Code design rules is possible to provide a more uniform design margin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ion implantation effects in 'cosmic' dust grains

Cosmic dust grains, whatever their origin may be, have probably suffered a complex sequence of events including exposure to high doses of low-energy nuclear particles and cycles of turbulent motions. High-voltage electron microscope observations of micron-sized grains either naturally exposed to space environmental parameters on the lunar surface or artificially subjected to space simulated conditions strongly suggest that such events could drastically modify the mineralogical composition of the grains and considerably ease their aggregation during collisions at low speeds. Furthermore, combined mass spectrometer and ionic analyzer studies show that small carbon compounds can be both synthesized during the implantation of a mixture of low-energy D, C, N ions in various solids and released in space by ion sputtering.

Bibring, J. P.↗

An evaluation of potentially useful separator materials for nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd] satellite batteries

An evaluation intended to determine the potential suitability and probable efficacy of a group of separator materials for use in nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) satellite batteries was carried out. These results were obtained using test procedures established in an earlier evaluation of other separator materials, some of which were used in experimental battery cells subjected to simulated use conditions. The properties that appear to be most important are: high electrolyte absorptivity, good electrolyte retention, low specific resistivity, rapid wettability and low resistance to air permeation. Wicking characteristics and wet-out time seem to be more important with respect to the initial filling of the battery with the electrolyte.

Baker, H. A.↗

Icing tunnel tests of a composite porous leading edge for use with a liquid anti-ice system

The efficacy of liquid ice protection systems which distribute a glycol-water solution onto leading edge surfaces through a porous skin was demonstrated in tests conducted in the NASA Lewis icing research tunnel using a composite porous leading edge panels. The data obtained were compared with the performance of previously tested stainless steel leading edge with the same geometry. Results show: (1) anti-ice protection of a composite leading edge is possible for all the simulated conditions tested; (2) the glycol flow rates required to achieve anti-ice protection were generally much higher than those required for a stainless steel panel; (3) the low reservoir pressures of the glycol during test runs indicates that more uniform distribution of glycol, and therefore lower glycol flow rates, can probably be achieved by decreasing the porosity of the panel; and (4) significant weight savings can be achieved in fluid ice protection systems with composite porous leading edges. The resistance of composite panels to abrasion and erosion must yet be determined before they can be incorporated in production systems.

Kohlman, D. L.↗

Collecting cometary soil samples? Development of the ROSETTA sample acquisition system

In the reference scenario of the ROSETTA CNRS mission, the Sample Acquisition System is mounted on the Comet Lander. Its tasks are to acquire three kinds of cometary samples and to transfer them to the Earth Return Capsule. Operations are to be performed in vacuum and microgravity, on a probably rough and dusty surface, in a largely unknown material, at temperatures in the order of 100 K. The concept and operation of the Sample Acquisition System are presented. The design of the prototype corer and surface sampling tool, and of the equipment for testing them at cryogenic temperatures in ambient conditions and in vacuum in various materials representing cometary soil, are described. Results of recent preliminary tests performed in low temperature thermal vacuum in a cometary analog ice-dust mixture are provided.

Coste, P. A.↗

The effect of initial conditions on mixing transition of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability

We investigate the late-time Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) growth of sinuous perturbations on an air/sulphur hexafluoride interface (Atwood number, A ~ 0.67 ) subjected to a Mach 1.2 planar shock wave at Los Alamos National Laboratory's vertical shock tube facility. Interface perturbations are established using a novel membraneless technique where cross-flowing air and SF 6 separated by an oscillating splitter plate create a perturbed density interface. The interface formed has multi-modal features and residual small perturbations, however, a dominant mode is still noticeable. The late-time perturbation growths scale with $ka_0$ initial conditions (where $k$ is the wavenumber and $a_0$ is the initial amplitude of the dominant mode) as measured at the pre-shock interface. Past nonlinear models based on potential-flow theory, heuristic/interpolation approaches, Padé approximants and numerical simulations are evaluated against present experimental results. Accounting for an explicit $ka_0$ dependence in Sadot et al.'s model, we propose an empirical rational function that captures the asymptotic behaviour of perturbation growth for a broad range of initial conditions ( 0.30 $≤ ka_0 ≤$ 0.86 ). The onset of mixing transition and its initial condition dependence are investigated with respect to the minimum state criterion ($Re =$ 1.6 $\times$ 10 5 ) for unsteady flows by Zhou. Earlier mixing transitions for higher ka0 initial conditions are noted from local and global Reynolds number estimates which are corroborated by the existence of an inertial sub-range and formation of mixing regions indicating the physical significance of the minimum state criterion in RMI flows. The transition is accompanied by the increasing teapot-like appearance of joint probability density functions of $p–q$ (invariants of the reduced velocity gradient tensor), establishing the technique as a useful tool for turbulence detection in two-dimensional diagnostics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Watch and learn—a generalized approach for transferrable learning in deep neural networks via physical principles

Transfer learning refers to the use of knowledge gained while solving a machine learning task and applying it to the solution of a closely related problem. Such an approach has enabled scientific breakthroughs in computer vision and natural language processing where the weights learned in state-of-the-art models can be used to initialize models for other tasks which dramatically improve their performance and save computational time. Here we demonstrate an unsupervised learning approach augmented with basic physical principles that achieves fully transferrable learning for problems in statistical physics across different physical regimes. By coupling a sequence model based on a recurrent neural network to an extensive deep neural network, we are able to learn the equilibrium probability distributions and inter-particle interaction models of classical statistical mechanical systems. Our approach, distribution-consistent learning, DCL, is a general strategy that works for a variety of canonical statistical mechanical models (Ising and Potts) as well as disordered interaction potentials. Using data collected from a single set of observation conditions, DCL successfully extrapolates across all temperatures, thermodynamic phases, and can be applied to different length-scales. This constitutes a fully transferrable physics-based learning in a generalizable approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extinct superheavy element in the Allende meteorite

Radiochemical neutron activation analysis of seven Allende samples for 26 trace elements were conducted. In addition, Cr and Fe were studied with the aid of instrumental neutron activation analysis. The investigation had the objective to identify the extinct superheavy element which was present in meteorites and decayed to Xe isotopes by spontaneous fission. The superheavy element was found to reside mainly in a rare mineral (probably a Fe, Ni, Cr, Al-sulfide), comprising only 0.04% of the meteorite. It is pointed out that of the nine volatile superheavy elements 111 to 119, only 115, 114, and 113 are expected to condense as sulfides in the temperature interval between 400 and 500 K corresponding to mineral formation conditions in the solar nebula.

Anders, E.↗

Does Mercury have a molten core

A feasible nonseismic observational experiment is proposed for determining the existence and extent of a conducting molten core within Mercury. This experiment would utilize the effects of a liquid core on the dynamics of Mercury's rotation; two necessary conditions for performing it are that the core must not follow the mantle's forced librations in longitude but must follow the mantle on the timescale of the 250,000-yr precession. A method is developed by assuming these conditions to be satisfied, and bounds are established on the core viscosity for which they are satisfied. It is shown that the value of the ratio of the moment of inertia of the mantle to the largest principal moment of inertia of the entire planet would indicate whether the core is most probably solid, partially fluid, or entirely fluid. Techniques are suggested for determining the unknowns required to compute the necessary ratio.

Peale, S. J.↗

AIS-2 radiometry and a comparison of methods for the recovery of ground reflectance

A field experiment and its results involving Airborne Imaging Spectrometer-2 data are described. The radiometry and spectral calibration of the instrument are critically examined in light of laboratory and field measurements. Three methods of compensating for the atmosphere in the search for ground reflectance are compared. It was found that laboratory determined responsitivities are 30 to 50 percent less than expected for conditions of the flight for both short and long wavelength observations. The combined system atmosphere surface signal to noise ratio, as indexed by the mean response divided by the standard deviation for selected areas, lies between 40 and 110, depending upon how scene averages are taken, and is 30 percent less for flight conditions than for laboratory. Atmospheric and surface variations may contribute to this difference. It is not possible to isolate instrument performance from the present data. As for methods of data reduction, the so-called scene average or log-residual method fails to recover any feature present in the surface reflectance, probably because of the extreme homogeneity of the scene.

Conel, James E.↗

Multishot laser altimeter - Design and performance

The maximum measurement range of a laser altimeter can be extended by averaging the measurements from multiple laser shots at the same target. We present the principles of operation and design of such a multishot laser altimeter, which uses a Si avalanche photodiode detector. As an example, the performance of a spaceborne multishot altimeter containing components similar to those of the single-shot Mars Observer Laser Altimeter are given under operating conditions that would be encountered near Saturn. With 100-shot averages, we show that the multishot laser altimeter is capable of accurate ranging at fly-by distances of 10,000 km from an icy satellite. With 100-shot averages, the minimum optical signal level at a 90 percent correct-measurement probability under nighttime background is 9.8 detected signal photons per pulse as compared with 76 photons per pulse with a single shot.

Sun, Xiaoli↗

Numerical Study of Stratified Charge Combustion in Wave Rotors

A wave rotor may be used as a pressure-gain combustor effecting non-steady flow, and intermittent, confined combustion to enhance gas turbine engine performance. It will be more compact and probably lighter than an equivalent pressure-exchange wave rotor, yet will have similar thermodynamic and mechanical characteristics. Because the allowable turbine blade temperature limits overall fuel/air ratio to sub-flammable values, premixed stratification techniques are necessary to burn hydrocarbon fuels in small engines with compressor discharge temperature well below autoignition conditions. One-dimensional, unsteady numerical simulations of stratified-charge combustion are performed using an eddy-diffusivity turbulence model and a simple reaction model incorporating a flammability limit temperature. For good combustion efficiency, a stratification strategy is developed which concentrates fuel at the leading and trailing edges of the inlet port. Rotor and exhaust temperature profiles and performance predictions are presented at three representative operating conditions of the engine: full design load, 40% load, and idle. The results indicate that peak local gas temperatures will result in excessive temperatures within the rotor housing unless additional cooling methods are used. The rotor itself will have acceptable temperatures, but the pattern factor presented to the turbine may be of concern, depending on exhaust duct design and duct-rotor interaction.

Nalim, M. Razi↗

PAH Spectroscopy: Past, Present and Future

Since their discovery in the 1970's, astronomers, astrophysicists and astrochemists have been intrigued by the nearly ubiquitous unidentified infrared emission (UIR) bands. In the 1980's, investigators determined the most probably source of these emissions was a family of molecules known as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons or simply PAHs. In order to better understand these interstellar IR features and utilize them as chemical probes of the cosmos, laboratory spectroscopists have spent the last three decades investigating the spectroscopy of PAHs under astrophysically relevant conditions. This presentation will discuss the similarities and differences in the spectroscopic properties of PAHs as one goes from the Far to Mid to Near infrared wavelength regions and probe the changes observed in PAH spectra as they go from neutral to ionized molecules suspended in an inert gas matrix, to PAHs in a water ice matrix and as a thin film. In selected instances, the experimental results will be compared to theoretical values. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on the future directions of PAH spectroscopy.

spectroscopic properties of PAHs↗

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗

Stochastic Home Energy Management Systems with Varying Controllable Resources

This paper studies the performance of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm in a home energy management system (HEMS) as the set of controllable resources varies and under both a constant and a time-of-use (TOU) electricity price structure. The set of controllable resources includes residentially-owned photovoltaic (PV) panels, a home battery system (HBS), an electric vehicle (EV), and a home heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The HEMS optimally schedules the set of controllable resources given user preferences such as indoor thermal comfort and electricity cost sensitivity. The home energy management system is built on a chance constrained, MPC-based algorithm, where the chance constraint ensures the indoor thermal comfort is satisfied with a high probability given uncertainty in the outdoor temperature and solar irradiance forecasts. Simulation results for varying sets of controllable resources under two different electricity price structures demonstrate the variation in the HEMS control with respect to HBS operation, electricity cost, and grid power usage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗