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DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Dark Energy Survey year 3 weak gravitational lensing by eRASS1 selected galaxy clusters

Context. Number counts of galaxy clusters across redshift are a powerful cosmological probe if a precise and accurate reconstruction of the underlying mass distribution is performed – a challenge called mass calibration. With the advent of wide and deep photometric surveys, weak gravitational lensing (WL) by clusters has become the method of choice for this measurement. Aims. We measured and validated the WL signature in the shape of galaxies observed in the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) caused by galaxy clusters and groups selected in the first all-sky survey performed by SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma)/eROSITA (eRASS1). These data were then used to determine the scaling between the X-ray photon count rate of the clusters and their halo mass and redshift. Methods. We empirically determined the degree of cluster member contamination in our background source sample. The individual cluster shear profiles were then analyzed with a Bayesian population model that self-consistently accounts for the lens sample selection and contamination and includes marginalization over a host of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. To quantify the accuracy of the mass extraction of that model, we performed mass measurements on mock cluster catalogs with realistic synthetic shear profiles. This allowed us to establish that hydrodynamical modeling uncertainties at low lens redshifts (z < 0.6) are the dominant systematic limitation. At high lens redshift, the uncertainties of the sources’ photometric redshift calibration dominate. Results. With regard to the X-ray count rate to halo mass relation, we determined its amplitude, its mass trend, the redshift evolution of the mass trend, the deviation from self-similar redshift evolution, and the intrinsic scatter around this relation. Conclusions. The mass calibration analysis performed here sets the stage for a joint analysis with the number counts of eRASS1 clusters to constrain a host of cosmological parameters. We demonstrate that WL mass calibration of galaxy clusters can be performed successfully with source galaxies whose calibration was performed primarily for cosmic shear experiments, opening the way for the cluster cosmological exploitation of future optical and NIR surveys like Euclid and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scrap Supply Chains and Residual Impacts: Benchmarking Price Implications Today and Into the Future

This presentation introduces the effort to benchmark the relationship between the portion of residuals in scrap (principally copper) and prices for select steel grades. It updates a Yalamanchili et al. 1999 paper that was one of the first to offer a quantitative metric for this relationship. It relies principally on a literature review and interviews with scrap suppliers and steelmakers; it will also contain original analysis on how residual quantities in the scrap supply chain and scrap prices could change into the future given certain trends.

Scrap steel, copper residuals, copper tolerance, s↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fall 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry. This quarter we also provide additional analysis on the domestic content of U.S. PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of the Williams-type model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

The Williams-type yield model is based on multiple regression analysis of historial time series data at CRD level pooled to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analysis include USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, soil texture and topographic information, and variables derived from these. Technologic trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadratic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-1979) demonstrate that biases are small and performance based on root mean square appears to be acceptable for the intended AgRISTARS large area applications. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. It consideres scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Barnett, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Outer atmospheres of cool stars. XIV - A model for the chromosphere and transition region of Beta Ceti (G9.5 III)

In the present chromospheric and transition region model for Beta Ceti, which is consistent with IUE spectra of the Mg II, C II, and C IV resonance lines, the Mg II h and k lines are treated in partial redistribution and the C II and C IV lines in complete redistribution. Computed line fluxes are presented for a range of models to show the range of permitted temperature structures. A comparison of the Beta Ceti model to models previously computed in a similar way for other stars shows a trend of decreasing chromospheric pressures and increasing geometric scales as single stars evolve across the transition region boundary. The present analysis also suggests that transition region pressures drastically decrease and geometric scales rapidly increase as single giant stars evolve to the right, toward the boudnary. Beta Ceti's exceptional X-ray brightness is discussed.

Eriksson, K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Comprehensive Understanding for Vegetated Scene Radiance Relationships

Directional reflectance distributions spanning the entire existent hemisphere were measured in two field studies; one using a Mark III 3-band radiometer and one using the rapid scanning bidirectional field instrument called PARABOLA. Surfaces measured included corn, soybeans, bare soils, grass lawn, orchard grass, alfalfa, cotton row crops, plowed field, annual grassland, stipa grass, hard wheat, salt plain shrubland, and irrigated wheat. Analysis of field data showed unique reflectance distributions ranging from bare soil to complete vegetation canopies. Physical mechanisms causing these trends were proposed. A 3-D model was developed and is unique in that it predicts: (1) the directional spectral reflectance factors as a function of the sensor's azimuth and zenith angles and the sensor's position above the canopy; (2) the spectral absorption as a function of location within the scene; and (3) the directional spectral radiance as a function of the sensor's location within the scene. Initial verification of the model as applied to a soybean row crop showed that the simulated directional data corresponded relatively well in gross trends to the measured data. The model was expanded to include the anisotropic scattering properties of leaves as a function of the leaf orientation distribution in both the zenith and azimuth angle modes.

Kimes, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The megageomorphology of the radar rivers of the eastern Sahara

The Eastern Sahara is devoid of surface drainage; this unusual characteristic distinguishes its morphology from that of most other desert regions where running water dominates landscape development. A map derived from SIR-A/B and LANDSAT images and the literature, shows the major presently known paleodrainages in the Eastern Sahara. This compilation permits consideration of the key questions: Where did the radar rivers come from and where did they go? Analysis of SIR-A data led McCauley et al. to suggest that the radar rivers, because of their southwestward trends, once flowed into the Chad basin. This key North African feature is a regional structural low formed in the Early Cretaceous in response to initial opening of the South Atlantic. The problem of the origin of headwaters for the radar rivers was less tractable. The idea that the source areas of the radar rivers might originally have been the same as those later captured by the Nile was proposed tentatively. A more extensive review of the Cenozoic tectonic history of North Africa reveals no reason now to suppose that the Central African tributaries of the present Nile were ever connected to the large alluvial valleys in southwestern Egypt and northwestern Sudan. formed in the Early Cretaceous in response to initial opening of the South Atlantic. The problem of the origin of headwaters for the radar rivers was less tractable. The idea that the source areas of the radar rivers might originally have been the same as those (The Ethiopian Highlands) later captured by the Nile was proposed tentatively. A more extensive review of the Cenozoic tectonic history of North Africa reveals no reason now to support that the Central African tributaries of the present Nile were ever connected to the large alluvial valleys in southwestern Egypt and northwestern Sudan.

Mccauley, John F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Microgravity nucleation and particle coagulation experiments support

This project is a part of a program at GSFC to study to formation and growth of cosmic dust grain analogs under terrestrial as well as microgravity conditions. Its primary scientific objective is to study the homogeneous nucleation of refractory metal vapors and a variety of their oxides among others, while the engineering, and perhaps a more immediate objective is to develop a system capable of producing mono-dispersed, homogeneous suspensions of well-characterized refractory particles for various particle interaction experiments aboard the Space Shuttle and Space Station Freedom. Both of these objectives are to be met by a judicious combination of laboratory experiments on the ground and aboard NASA's KC-135 experimental research aircraft. Major effort during the current reporting period was devoted to the evaluation of our very successful first series of microgravity test runs in Feb. 1990. Although the apparatus performed well, it was decided to 'repackage' the equipment for easier installation on the KC-135 and access to various components. It will now consist of three separate racks: one each for the nucleation chamber, the power subsystem, and the electronic packages. The racks were fabricated at the University of Virginia and the assembly of the repackaged units is proceeding well. Preliminary analysis of the video data from the first microgravity flight series was performed and the results appear to display some trends expected from Hale's Scaled Nucleation Theory of 1986. The data acquisition system is currently being refined.

Lilleleht, L. U.↗

NASA NTRS2001

On-Line Mu Method for Robust Flutter Prediction in Expanding a Safe Flight Envelope for an Aircraft Model Under Flight Test

A structured singular value (mu) analysis method of computing flutter margins has robust stability of a linear aeroelastic model with uncertainty operators (Delta). Flight data is used to update the uncertainty operators to accurately account for errors in the computed model and the observed range of aircraft dynamics of the aircraft under test caused by time-varying aircraft parameters, nonlinearities, and flight anomalies, such as test nonrepeatability. This mu-based approach computes predict flutter margins that are worst case with respect to the modeling uncertainty for use in determining when the aircraft is approaching a flutter condition and defining an expanded safe flight envelope for the aircraft that is accepted with more confidence than traditional methods that do not update the analysis algorithm with flight data by introducing mu as a flutter margin parameter that presents several advantages over tracking damping trends as a measure of a tendency to instability from available flight data.

Lind, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nutrient Controls on Net Primary Production Decline in the Subtropical North Atlantic

The subtropical North Atlantic Ocean (STNA) has been experiencing a steady decline in both Chlorophyll a (the primary photosynthetic pigment in phytoplankton used to identify abundance in the ocean) and net primary production (the net amount carbon fixed in the surface ocean by phytoplankton after losses to respiration). This decline is spread across the entire STNA and has been ongoing since the beginning of the satellite ocean color record in 1997. Previous work has attributed these changes to decreased nutrient exchange between nutrient-poor surface waters and nutrient-rich deep waters resulting from increased stratification driven by surface warming due to climate change. Our results from an analysis of satellite data, Argo float data, and historical cruise data show significant inconsistencies with this hypothesis. We observe a trend of increased stratification for half the STNA basin but decreased stratification in the other half. Where we see increased stratification, we also see changes in nitrate that would result in an increased delivery of nitrate to surface waters if vertical transport across the stratified layers was the dominant source of nutrients. Our working hypothesis is that changes in circulation in the subtropical gyre have resulted in an altered mix of source waters with distinct nutrient characteristics. The mechanism behind the decline in primary production in the STNA remains unclear. We will use the ECCO-Darwin data-assimilative global ocean biogeochemistry model to further investigate the mechanisms behind the observed changes in production and nutrients in the STNA.

Nutrient↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of daily maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) temperatures can both be detrimental to human health. Previous studies have concluded that the frequency of global heat waves has increased over recent decades, with greater increases in T(min)- than T(max)-heat waves in several regions. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with heatwaves manifest during daytime versus nighttime hours over the United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A daytime (nighttime) heat wave is defined as average daytime (nighttime) temperature exceeding its calendar day 90th percentile for at least 3 days. Over 1980-2018, the number of heat wave days per summer has increased over much of the United States. Trends are stronger for nighttime versus daytime heat wave frequency over the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest United States. Local and remote processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Finally, we characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with daytime and nighttime heat waves over different regions of the United States.

Thomas, N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Possible Mechanisms for Turbofan Engine Ice Crystal Icing at High Altitude

A thermodynamic model is presented to describe possible mechanisms of ice formation on unheated surfaces inside a turbofan engine compression system from fully glaciated ice crystal clouds often formed at high altitude near deep convective weather systems. It is shown from the analysis that generally there could be two distinct types of ice formation: (1) when the "surface freezing fraction" is in the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the freezing of water melt from fully or partially melted ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accretion with strong adhesion to the surface, and (2) when the "surface melting fraction" is the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the further melting of ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accumulation of un-melted ice crystals with relatively weak bonding to the surface. The model captures important qualitative trends of the fundamental ice-crystal icing phenomenon reported earlier1,2 from the research collaboration work by NASA and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada. Further, preliminary analysis of test data from the 2013 full scale turbofan engine ice crystal icing test3 conducted in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) has also suggested that (1) both types of ice formation occurred during the test, and (2) the model has captured some important qualitative trend of turning on (or off) the ice crystal ice formation process in the tested engine low pressure compressor (LPC) targeted area under different icing conditions that ultimately would lead to (or suppress) an engine core roll back (RB) event.

Crystal Icing↗

NASA NTRS1989

Comparison study of gear dynamic computer programs at NASA Lewis Research Center

A comparison study was performed on four gear dynamic analysis computer programs developed under NASA/Army sponsorship. These programs are GRDYNMULT (a multimesh program applicable to a number of epicyclic systems), TELSGE (a single mesh program), PGT (a multimesh program applicable to a planetary system with three planets), and DANST (a single mesh program). The capabilities and features, input and output options, and technical aspects of the programs were reviewed and compared. Results are presented in a concise tabular form. Parametric studies of the program models were performed to investigate the predicted results of the programs as input parameters such as speed, torque, and mesh damping were varied. In general, the program models predicted similar dynamic load and stress levels as operating conditions were varied. Flash temperature predictions from programs GRDYNMULT and TELSGE indicated similar trends; however, actual values were not in close agreement. The program GRDYNMULT was found to be the most versatile in system size, type, and analysis capabilities. The programs DANST, TELSGE, and PGT are more specialized for specific systems; however, in specific areas they provide a more detailed treatment than GRDYNMULT.

Zakrajsek, James J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An approach to the detection of long-term trends in upper stratospheric ozone from space

A central problem in the detection of long-term trends in the upper stratospheric ozone from orbiting remote sensors involves the separation of instrument drifts from true geophysical changes. Periodic flights of a Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet radiometer (SSBUV) on the Space Shuttle will allow the detection of drifts in optically identical sensors (SBUV/2) carried on operational satellites. A detailed simulation of the SSBUV and SBUV/2 datasets defines the accuracy that can be attained by the in-orbit calibration procedure. The repeatability of the SSBUV calibration from one flight to the next is the most critical variable in the analysis. A repeatability near + or - 1.0 percent is essential for detection and correction of drifts in the SBUV/2 radiance measurements. The simulations show that true geophysical trends in backscattered radiance can be inferred to an accuracy of approximately + or - 1.0 percent per decade when SSBUV flies approximately once per year and provides a precise calibration correction to the SBUV/2 dataset over a full decade.

Frederick, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Comparisons of global ozone trends inferred from the BUV experiment on Nimbus 4 and the ground-based network

Preliminary comparisons between global ozone burdens derived from the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) experiment on Nimbus 4 and those inferred from an analysis of ground-based network data seem to indicate significant differences in the inter-annual variability of ozone. Some of the observed differences may be due to improper weighting of the ground-based network data, slowly changing planetary wave structure over the fixed station, of small inter-annual changes in meridional transport parameters. There is also some evidence which indicates that the polar stratosphere at high latitudes may represent an important ozone storage resevoir which tends to compensate for large scale changes observed in the regions outside of the polar stratosphere. Possible consequences of this are that the global trends derived from ground based ozone measurements may not be valid and furthermore that the current satellite techniques by themselves may be sufficient. An ozone monitoring system which includes observations from satellites, ground-based stations, balloons and rockets may be necessary.

Heath, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Improvement of the TOPEX and Jason Orbit Time Series: Precision Orbit Determination, Calibration, Validation and Improvement Through the Combined Reduction and Analysis of GPS, SLR, DORIS and Altimeter Data

Orbit error is a major component in the overall error budget of all altimeter satellite missions. Jason-I is no exception and a 1 cm radial orbit accuracy goal has been set, which represents a factor of two improvement over what is currently being achieved for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP). Our current analysis suggests this goal has been met and even improved upon, but the challenge is to be able to continually achieve this high accuracy, verify the performance and characterize and quantify the remaining errors over the lifetime of the mission. The computation, verification and error characterization of such high accuracy orbits requires the reduction and analysis of all available tracking data (GPS, SLR, DORIS and altimeter). Current analysis also indicates the history of TP orbits can be further improved employing new solution strategies developed and tested on Jason-I. Our research focuses on the calibration, validation and improvement of orbit accuracies using all available tracking data including altimetry. We will compute and distribute well centered Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm in the radial component. In addition to the orbits themselves, a characterization of the orbit error will be distributed and accumulated as a time series of orbit performance metrics to track anomalies and trends. The long time series of orbit error characterization will enable a better understanding of the remaining orbit errors and its impact on the altimeter data analysis. As part of this research effort we are also significantly improving the current level of TP orbit accuracy, re-computing new high-accuracy TP orbits from the beginning of the TP mission and continuing into the future (as long as TP is healthy). Our funded research effort will result in a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits for both TP and Jason, significantly benefiting the long time series of altimeter data analysis and the TP/Jason dual mission. The resultant high accuracy orbits and the characterization of their error will allow further improvements to the accuracy and overall quality of the altimeter measurement time series making possible further strides in radar altimeter remote sensing.

Luthcke, Scott B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of fuel and injection strategy on combustion characteristics, emissions and efficiency in gasoline compression ignition operation

Gasoline compression ignition in diesel engines has been proposed in order to meet increasingly stringent emission regulations without sacrificing efficiency. In this study, a six-cylinder heavy-duty diesel engine was operated in a mixing controlled gasoline compression ignition mode to investigate the influence of fuels and injection strategies on the combustion characteristics, emissions, and thermal efficiencies. Fuels, including ethanol (E), isobutanol (IB), and diisobutylene (DIB), were blended with a gasoline fuel to form E10, E30, IB30, and DIB30 based on volumetric fraction. These four blends along with gasoline formed the five test fuels. With these fuels, three injections strategies were investigated, including late pilot injection, early pilot injection, and port fuel injection/direct injection. The impact of moderate exhaust gas recirculation on nitrogen oxides and soot emissions was examined to determine the most promising fuel/injection strategy for emissions reduction. In addition, first and second law analyses were performed to provide insights into the efficiency, loss, and exergy destruction of the various gasoline fuel blends at low and medium load conditions. Overall, the emission output, thermal efficiency, and combustion performances of the five fuels were found to be similar and their differences are modest under most test conditions. E30 with the port/direct fuel injection strategy obtained the peak brake thermal efficiency (46.9%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.2%) at 14 bar. At 7 bar, the peak brake thermal efficiency (44.2%) and gross indicated thermal efficiency (52.5%) also belonged to E30 with the late pilot injection strategy. The second law analysis revealed that exergy destruction was mostly influenced by the fuel type and not by the injection strategy for the 14 bar operating conditions. However, the opposite trend was observed for the 7 bar case. In addition, port fuel injection in combination with oxygenated fuel blends was found to be helpful to suppress soot emissions for operation with exhaust gas recirculation.

co-optima fuels↗