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DOE OSTI2019

Predicting CO 2 Plume Migration in Heterogeneous Formations Using Conditional Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network

Numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous formations has long been studied, especially for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment. The high computational cost associated with running large-scale numerical simulations in a Monte Carlo sense has motivated the development of surrogate models, which aim to capture the important input-output relations of physics-based models but require only a fraction of the cost of full model runs. In this work, we formulate a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (cDC-GAN) surrogate model to learn the dynamic functional mappings in multiphase models. The cDC-GAN belongs to a class of semisupervised learning methods that can be used to learn the data generation processes. Like the original GAN, a main strength of the cDC-GAN is that it includes a self-training scheme for improving the quality of generative modeling in a game theoretic framework, without requiring extensive statistical knowledge and assumptions on input data distributions. In particular, our cDC-GAN model is designed to learn cross-domain mappings between high-dimensional input (e.g., permeability) and output (e.g., phase saturations) pairs, with the ability to incorporate conditioning information (e.g., prediction time). As a use case, we demonstrate the performance of cDC-GAN for predicting the migration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume in heterogeneous carbon storage reservoirs, which has both numerical and practical significance because of the safe storage requirements now mandated in many countries. Results show that cDC-GAN achieves high accuracy in predicting the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the injected CO 2 plume, as compared to the original results obtained using a compositional reservoir simulator. The performance of cDC-GAN models, trained using the same number of training samples, stays relatively robust when the level of spatial heterogeneity is increased. Our cDC-GAN is pattern based and is not limited by the underlying physics. Thus, it provides a general framework for developing surrogate models, and for conducting uncertainty analyses for a wide range of physics-based models used in both groundwater and subsurface energy exploration applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Closing in on Hydrologic Predictive Accuracy: Combining the Strengths of High-Fidelity and Physics-Agnostic Models

Applications of process-based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high-fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM-surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high-fidelity and physics-agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Process‐Oriented Calibration of a Turbulence Scheme in the DOE's Global Storm‐Resolving Model Using Machine Learning

A process‐oriented calibration framework is developed for the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure (SHOC) turbulence scheme in DOE's Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmospheric Model (SCREAM). This framework leverages machine learning surrogates and observational constraints to efficiently calibrate SHOC adjustable parameters across two convective regimes: clear‐sky dry convective boundary layer and fair‐weather shallow cumulus clouds from ARM observations. We use perturbed‐parameter ensembles of a doubly periodic version of SCREAM to train surrogates and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling guided by cost functions based on benchmarking large‐eddy simulations and observations to identify optimized parameter sets that perform well in both regimes. The calibrated SHOC parameters substantially improve boundary‐layer turbulence and cloud boundaries, and modeled cloud fraction and radiative effects align better with observations than the default. These results demonstrate that combining multiple process‐specific convective regimes with machine‐learning surrogates can reduce parametric uncertainties and yield a model more faithful to cloud–turbulence interactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

To address surface reaction network complexity using scaling relations machine learning and DFT calculations

Surface reaction networks involving hydrocarbons exhibit enormous complexity with thousands of species and reactions for all but the very simplest of chemistries. We present a framework for optimization under uncertainty for heterogeneous catalysis reaction networks using surrogate models that are trained on the fly. The surrogate model is constructed by teaching a Gaussian process adsorption energies based on group additivity fingerprints, combined with transition-state scaling relations and a simple classifier for determining the rate-limiting step. The surrogate model is iteratively used to predict the most important reaction step to be calculated explicitly with computationally demanding electronic structure theory. Applying these methods to the reaction of syngas on rhodium(111), we identify the most likely reaction mechanism. Lastly, propagating uncertainty throughout this process yields the likelihood that the final mechanism is complete given measurements on only a subset of the entire network and uncertainty in the underlying density functional theory calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emerging materials intelligence ecosystems propelled by machine learning

We report that the age of cognitive computing and artificial intelligence (AI) is just dawning. Inspired by its successes and promises, several AI ecosystems are blossoming, many of them within the domain of materials science and engineering. These materials intelligence ecosystems are being shaped by several independent developments. Machine learning (ML) algorithms and extant materials data are utilized to create surrogate models of materials properties and performance predictions. Materials data repositories, which fuel such surrogate model development, are mushrooming. Automated data and knowledge capture from the literature (to populate data repositories) using natural language processing approaches is being explored. The design of materials that meet target property requirements and of synthesis steps to create target materials appear to be within reach, either by closed-loop active-learning strategies or by inverting the prediction pipeline using advanced generative algorithms. AI and ML concepts are also transforming the computational and physical laboratory infrastructural landscapes used to create materials data in the first place. Surrogate models that can outstrip physics-based simulations (on which they are trained) by several orders of magnitude in speed while preserving accuracy are being actively developed. Automation, autonomy and guided high-throughput techniques are imparting enormous efficiencies and eliminating redundancies in materials synthesis and characterization. The integration of the various parts of the burgeoning ML landscape may lead to materials-savvy digital assistants and to a human-machine partnership that could enable dramatic efficiencies, accelerated discoveries and increased productivity. Here, we review these emergent materials intelligence ecosystems and discuss the imminent challenges and opportunities. The materials research landscape is being transformed by the infusion of approaches based on machine learning. This Review discusses the emerging materials intelligence ecosystems and the potential of human-machine partnerships for fast and efficient virtual materials screening, development and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating the design of lattice structures using machine learning

Lattices remain an attractive class of structures due to their design versatility; however, rapidly designing lattice structures with tailored or optimal mechanical properties remains a significant challenge. With each added design variable, the design space quickly becomes intractable. To address this challenge, research efforts have sought to combine computational approaches with machine learning (ML)-based approaches to reduce the computational cost of the design process and accelerate mechanical design. While these efforts have made substantial progress, significant challenges remain in (1) building and interpreting the ML-based surrogate models and (2) iteratively and efficiently curating training datasets for optimization tasks. Here, we address the first challenge by combining ML-based surrogate modeling and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis to interpret the impact of each design variable. We find that our ML-based surrogate models achieve excellent prediction capabilities (R 2 > 0.95) and SHAP values aid in uncovering design variables influencing performance. We address the second challenge by utilizing active learning-based methods, such as Bayesian optimization, to explore the design space and report a 5 × reduction in simulations relative to grid-based search. Collectively, these results underscore the value of building intelligent design systems that leverage ML-based methods for uncovering key design variables and accelerating design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Synchronization, non-linear dynamics and low-frequency fluctuations: Analogy between spontaneous brain activity and networked single-transistor chaotic oscillators

In this paper, the topographical relationship between functional connectivity (intended as inter-regional synchronization), spectral and non-linear dynamical properties across cortical areas of the healthy human brain is considered. Based upon functional MRI acquisitions of spontaneous activity during wakeful idleness, node degree maps are determined by thresholding the temporal correlation coefficient among all voxel pairs. In addition, for individual voxel time-series, the relative amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations and the correlation dimension (D{sub 2}), determined with respect to Fourier amplitude and value distribution matched surrogate data, are measured. Across cortical areas, high node degree is associated with a shift towards lower frequency activity and, compared to surrogate data, clearer saturation to a lower correlation dimension, suggesting presence of non-linear structure. An attempt to recapitulate this relationship in a network of single-transistor oscillators is made, based on a diffusive ring (n = 90) with added long-distance links defining four extended hub regions. Similarly to the brain data, it is found that oscillators in the hub regions generate signals with larger low-frequency cycle amplitude fluctuations and clearer saturation to a lower correlation dimension compared to surrogates. The effect emerges more markedly close to criticality. The homology observed between the two systems despite profound differences in scale, coupling mechanism and dynamics appears noteworthy. These experimental results motivate further investigation into the heterogeneity of cortical non-linear dynamics in relation to connectivity and underline the ability for small networks of single-transistor oscillators to recreate collective phenomena arising in much more complex biological systems, potentially representing a future platform for modelling disease-related changes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling laser-driven ion acceleration with deep learning

Developments in machine learning promise to ameliorate some of the challenges of modeling complex physical systems through neural-network-based surrogate models. High-intensity, short-pulse lasers can be used to accelerate ions to mega-electronvolt energies, but to model such interactions requires computationally expensive techniques such as particle-in-cell simulations. Multilayer neural networks allow one to take a relatively sparse ensemble of simulations and generate a surrogate model that can be used to rapidly search the parameter space of interest. In this study, we created an ensemble of over 1,000 simulations modeling laser-driven ion acceleration and developed a surrogate to study the resulting parameter space. A neural-network-based approach allows for rapid feature discovery not possible for traditional parameter scans given the computational cost. A notable observation made during this study was the dependence of ion energy on the pre-plasma gradient length scale. While this methodology harbors great promise for ion acceleration, it has ready application to all topics in which large-scale parameter scans are restricted by significant computational cost or relatively large, but sparse, domains.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2013

Exhaust Gas Recirculation Cooler Fouling in Diesel Applications: Fundamental Studies Deposit Properties and Microstructure

This paper reports on the results of experimental efforts aimed at improving the understanding of the mechanisms and conditions at play in the fouling of EGR coolers. An experimental apparatus was constructed to utilize simplified surrogate heat exchanger tubes in lieu of full-size heat exchangers. The use of these surrogate tubes allowed removal of the tubes after exposure to engine exhaust for study of the deposit layer and its properties. The exhaust used for fouling the surrogate tubes was produced using a modern medium-duty diesel engine fueled with both ultra-low sulfur diesel and biodiesel blends. At long exposure times, no significant difference in the fouling rate was observed between fuel types and HC levels. Surface coatings for the tubes were also evaluated to determine their impact on deposit growth. No surface treatment or coating produced a reduction in the fouling rate or any evidence of deposit removal. In addition, microstructural analysis of the fouling layers was performed using optical and electron microscopy in order to better understand the deposition mechanism. The experimental results are consistent with thermophoretic deposition for deposit formation, and van der Waals attraction between the deposit surface and exhaust-borne particulate.

EGR↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ion-Exchange Kinetics of Alpha-Zirconium Phosphate Nanoplatelets for Application in Targeted Alpha Therapy

The loading and kinetics of uptake for the inorganic ion-exchange material, α-zirconium phosphate, Zr(HPO 4 ) 2 •H 2 O, were investigated with ions relevant to targeted alpha therapy including natural Cs + (as a surrogate for 221 Fr), natural Bi 3+ (as a surrogate for 213 Bi), and natural La 3+ (as a surrogate for 225 Ac). The narrow interlayer spacing of the α-phase (d = 7.6 Å) was found not to be advantageous with respect to rapid ion exchange, while converting the material to the hydrated Na-phase (d = 12.2 Å) allowed ion exchange to proceed more quickly, reaching equilibrium in under an hour. High loading was achieved for all three ions, at 72 ± 4% for Cs + and 95 ± 5% for La 3+ at pH 3 and 108 ± 10% for Bi 3+ at pH 0.5. Leaching profiles of the loaded materials in a simulated human plasma environment of 10 mM carbonate buffer at pH 7.4 and 37°C, showed negligible release, with less than 1% in all cases. Furthermore, the ion-exchange properties and overall benign nature of zirconium phosphate highlight these materials as a promising platform for a targeted alpha therapy drug-delivery vehicle.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning and artificial intelligence to extend EFIT equilibrium reconstruction

Recent progress in the application of machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to improve the Equilibrium Fitting (EFIT) code equilibrium reconstruction for fusion data analysis applications is presented. A device-independent portable core equilibrium solver capable of computing or reconstructing equilibrium for different tokamaks has been created to facilitate adaptation of ML/AI algorithms. A large EFIT database comprising of DIII-D magnetic, motional Stark effect, and kinetic reconstruction data has been generated for developments of EFIT model-order-reduction (MOR) surrogate models to reconstruct approximate equilibrium solutions. Furthermore, a neural-network MOR surrogate model has been successfully trained and tested using the magnetically reconstructed datasets with encouraging results. Other progress includes developments of a Gaussian process Bayesian framework that can adapt its many hyperparameters to improve processing of experimental input data and a 3D perturbed equilibrium database from toroidal full magnetohydrodynamic linear response modeling using the Magnetohydrodynamic Resistive Spectrum - Feedback (MARS-F) code for developments of 3D-MOR surrogate models.

Gaussian process↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aemulus $\nu$: precise predictions for matter and biased tracer power spectra in the presence of neutrinos

Here we present the Aemulusν simulations: a suite of 150 (1.05 h -1 Gpc) 3 N-body simulations with a mass resolution of 3.51 × 10 10 Ω cb /0.3 h -1 M ⊙ in a wνCDM cosmological parameter space. The simulations have been explicitly designed to span a broad range in σ8 to facilitate investigations of tension between large scale structure and cosmic microwave background cosmological probes. Neutrinos are treated as a second particle species to ensure accuracy to 0.5 eV, the maximum neutrino mass that we have simulated. By employing Zel'dovich control variates, we increase the effective volume of our simulations by factors of 10-10 5 depending on the statistic in question. As a first application of these simulations, we build new hybrid effective field theory and matter power spectrum surrogate models, demonstrating that they achieve ≤ 1% accuracy for k ≤ 1 hMpc -1 and 0 ≤ z ≤ 3, and ≤ 2% accuracy for k ≤ 4 hMpc -1 for the matter power spectrum. We publicly release the trained surrogate models, and estimates of the surrogate model errors in the hope that they will be broadly applicable to a range of cosmological analyses for many years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Explainable physics-based constraints on reinforcement learning for accelerator optimization

We present a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for optimizing particle accelerator experiments that builds explainable physics-based constraints on agent behavior. The goal is to increase transparency and trust by letting users verify that the agent’s decision-making process incorporates suitable physics. Our algorithm uses a learnable surrogate function for physical observables, such as energy, and uses them to fine-tune how actions are chosen. This surrogate can be represented by a neural network or by an interpretable sparse dictionary model. We test our algorithm on a range of particle accelerator optimization environments designed to emulate the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility at Jefferson Lab. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment. In addition, we find that the introduction of a physics-based surrogate enables our RL algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator optimization environments.

explainability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct measurement of 59 Ni( n, p ) 59 Co and 59 Ni( n, α ) 56 Fe at fast-neutron energies from 500 keV to 10 MeV

We report nuclear reaction data for neutron induced reactions on unstable nuclei are critical for a wide range of applications spanning studies of nuclear astrophysics, nuclear reactor designs, and radiochemistry diagnostics. However, nuclear data evaluations of the reaction cross sections are largely based on calculations due to the difficulty in performing this class of measurements and the resulting lack of experimental data. For neutron induced charged particle reactions at fast neutron energies, at the MeV scale, these cross section predictions are predominately driven by statistical Hauser-Feshbach calculations. In this work, we present partial and total 59 Ni(n, p) and 59 Ni(n, α) cross sections, measured directly with a radioactive 59 Ni target, and compare the results to the present nuclear data evaluations. In addition, the results from this work are compared to a recent study of the 59 Ni(n, xp) reaction cross section that was performed via an indirect surrogate ratio method. The expected energy trend of the cross section, based on the current work, is inconsistent with that of the surrogate work. This calls into question the reliability of that application of the surrogate ratio method and highlights the need for direct measurements on unstable nuclei, when feasible.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗