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DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subhourly Clipping Correction Model Comparison

This work will compare the Allen method and Walker method of accounting for subhourly inverter clipping power losses in hourly PV performance models. The Allen method uses a matrix lookup based on DNI clearness and clipping potential to assign a clipping correction loss at each simulation timestep. The Walker method models the PV DC power input to the inverter as a distribution over the hourly timestep and uses integration over the timestep to determine the amount of clipping that occurs within the timestep. Both these models have been recently implemented in the System Advisor Model's (SAM) open-source code, and will be applied to hourly SURFRAD datasets to analyze the subhourly clipping loss predicted by each model for different system designs and inverter loading conditions. Both models will be compared to "true" 1-minute SURFRAD data simulations to see their accuracy against more accurate 1-minute clipping correction loss predictions. This model comparisons will be investigated in more detail at the PVSC conference in Seattle, Washington June 2024.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Data Center Impact on Grid Stability: A Coordinated Control Strategy Using Verrus StabiliGrid Architecture

Large data centers, which now represent a significant and growing share of the total U.S. grid load, can inadvertently destabilize the electrical grid when they disconnect simultaneously during brief voltage disturbances. The July 10, 2024, Eastern Interconnection incident, in which a sub-100-millisecond transmission fault triggered the cascading loss of approximately 1,500 MW of data center load, illustrates this vulnerability. While commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed in data centers provide device-level fault ride-through per IEEE 1547, they lack coordination with facility protection logic and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), limiting their effectiveness as grid-stabilizing assets. This report presents the Verrus StabiliGrid architecture, a coordinated control framework that integrates BESS, UPS, and point-of-interconnection (POI) protection settings to enable data centers to ride through both undervoltage and overvoltage grid contingencies without disconnecting. The four-step strategy encompasses: (1) high-resolution power quality monitoring to detect the grid state during events such as undervoltage, overvoltage, underfrequency, and overfrequency; (2) POI protection settings that allow for extended ride-through and grid-connected operation during grid contingencies; (3) grid state-driven autonomous dispatch of assets to improve grid resilience by reducing power draw during undervoltage or absorbing more power during overvoltage events; and (4) coordinated post-recovery dispatch of data center assets to restore firm load to pre-contingency levels. Validated through controller-hardware-in-the-loop (C-HIL) simulations at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, results show grid import restoration to pre-fault levels within 100 milliseconds of voltage recovery. This work advances the ability of data centers to transition from passive, disturbance-sensitive loads to active participants in grid stability, a capability increasingly required by emerging NERC and ERCOT regulatory frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical discrete particle simulation studies

A particle simulation code was developed that is suited to Multiple Instruction Multiple Data multiprocessor computers. The resulting code is designed to be portable between a large class of multiprocessor computer architectures, including hypercubes (e.g., Intel iPSC/860), shared memory machines (e.g., Cray, SGI, DASH), and simple uniprocessors (e.g., SUN, VAX, IBM PC). This code provides a powerful general framework that can be adapted to specific applications, such as thermomechanical modeling, general 3-D geometry support, or visualization support via a codeveloped CPlot data reduction and visualization system. Chemistry models were implemented and validated with comparison to continuum solutions of thermochemically relaxing gas mixtures and with experimental results from the high speed flow about a circular cylinder. Furthermore, the exchange of energy between translational and internal modes was modeled. New models were developed, combining greater efficiency than earlier phenomenological models. They offer greater physical detail by addressing vibrational energy as a discretely distributed quantity.

Mcdonald, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Interaction Between Energy Efficiency and Demand Response on Regional Grid Scales: Preprint

With increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation at grid and distributed scales, flexible building loads can provide significant system value and support the evolving needs of the grid. The growing value of load flexibility may complicate the traditional separation between energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR). EE measures may compete in some cases with a building’s DR capabilities but complement one another in other cases. EE can also increase or decrease the need for DR at the system level and change the availability of DR to meet system needs. In this study we present a bottom-up approach to modeling interactive effects between EE and DR in buildings within two regions of the US electricity grid. From a library of building simulation models for different buildings and climates, we synthesize system-level demand profiles and the impacts of potential future EE portfolios. Coupling the underlying building models with a database of DR-enabling technologies, we then compute the quantity of DR that can be delivered in each scenario. The results show that EE and DR interactions are largely driven by the timing of EE savings that are measure-specific and the coincidence with system peak demand that is region-specific. We also find that perspective of the impacts matters – for instance that some EE measures reduce the system need for DR but also reduce the DR potential. Our results imply that utility EE and DR programs developed without considering interactive effects may lead to increased grid-management challenges over the long term.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Modularized Urban Scale Building Energy Modeling Framework Designed with An Open Mind

In recent years, physics-based building energy modeling (BEM) has started being used to evaluate the performance of buildings in the context of connected communities and on an urban scale to study their aggregated energy use, interactions, and impacts on the energy supply infrastructure and environment. The development of urban-scale BEM solutions needs extensive effort. Existing attempts tend to focus on different aspects of BEM on an urban scale, such as collecting as-built building data from different information sources, integrating geometry modeling with geographic information systems (GISs), representing operational and occupancy profiles, automating workflow, processing and visualizing the results, and conducting large-scale simulations. Urban-scale BEM development would benefit from multi-disciplinary research areas and from an open platform to adopt advancements on data sources and tools. For these purposes, this research proposes a modularized bottom-up model creation and simulation framework that is built on the state-of-the-art BEM tools and can accommodate different building stock data. This framework uses a standardized schema to describe building design and operational characteristics, and it can be instantiated from different building survey datasets with heterogeneous structures. The paper demonstrates how thousands of surveyed buildings from the 2012 U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) were one-to-one converted to EnergyPlus models through the schema and the model generation process, then simulated with distributed computing, and their results are summarized.

Lei, Xuechen↗

DOE OSTI2019

A VSM-Based DER Dispatch MINLP for Volt-VAR Control in Unbalanced Power Distribution Systems

This paper presents an optimal dispatch algorithm to coordinate customer-owned controllable loads and smart solar inverters with utility-owned voltage regulators and capacitors to meet voltage control objectives. The optimization problem is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem. A voltage sensitivity matrix (VSM) is used to linearize the effect of control actions on the voltage at customer nodes when solving the MINLP. The VSM is recalculated at each time step to improve the computational accuracy. Both discrete switching actions of the capacitor and VRs and the continuous adjustment of real and reactive power from load and smart inverters are considered in the MINLP volt-var problem formulation. The objective function minimizes the cost of all control actions and the magnitude of voltage fluctuations from the previous time period. Constraints ensure that the voltage at each node is maintained within ANSI limits and the feeder power factor is controlled within the desired range. The algorithm is tested using an actual 3-phase unbalanced distribution feeder model. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is computationally feasible on real circuits and improves voltage control while minimizing operational costs.

McEntee, Catie↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low clean concentration and a high dirty concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

cloud-resolving model↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters to accelerate simulations of exciton dynamics

In this manuscript, we develop multiple machine learning (ML) models to accelerate a scheme for parameterizing site-based models of exciton dynamics from all-atom configurations of condensed phase sexithiophene systems. This scheme encodes the details of a system’s specific molecular morphology in the correlated distributions of model parameters through the analysis of many single-molecule excited-state electronic-structure calculations. These calculations yield excitation energies for each molecule in the system and the network of pair-wise intermolecular electronic couplings. In this work, we demonstrate that the excitation energies can be accurately predicted using a kernel ridge regression (KRR) model with Coulomb matrix featurization. We present two ML models for predicting intermolecular couplings. The first one utilizes a deep neural network and bi-molecular featurization to predict the coupling directly, which we find to perform poorly. The second one utilizes a KRR model to predict unimolecular transition densities, which can subsequently be analyzed to compute the coupling. We find that the latter approach performs excellently, indicating that an effective, generalizable strategy for predicting simple bimolecular properties is through the indirect application of ML to predict higher-order unimolecular properties. Such an approach necessitates a much smaller feature space and can incorporate the insight of well-established molecular physics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A crystal plasticity model with an atomistically informed description of grain boundary sliding for improved predictions of deformation fields

Crystal plasticity (CP) is a powerful meso-scale technique for deformation modeling in polycrystalline materials. Crystal plasticity models typically do not include an explicit description of grain boundary (GB) sliding, which could lead to inaccurate predictions of strain distributions, especially in the vicinity of GBs. In the present study, a CP model is developed that includes GB sliding as an additional deformation mechanism and models the interaction between slip and GB sliding. Atomistic simulations are used to formulate the constitutive model for GB sliding and its interaction with incident slip. The deformation fields and structure of the GBs are obtained directly from experimental characterization and are faithfully reproduced as bicrystal systems for molecular dynamics simulations. The GBs are modeled as random-type (non-coincidence, asymmetrical) boundaries as observed from experimental data. The underlying atomistic-scale mechanism for pure sliding of random GBs was found to be analogous to fluid-flow. The interaction between incident slip and a sliding GB caused local increases in stress concentration, which further led to a momentary increase in the local sliding rate. The displacement profiles at the sliding GBs computed from the CP model with sliding accommodation are 38% more accurate than the baseline CP model as quantified by the mean squared error between the simulations and experiment. Here these results help improve the sophistication and accuracy of deformation modeling by including physics-based descriptions for GB sliding and its interaction with slip, eventually leading to more reliable predictions of micromechanical quantities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Using simple PID-inspired controllers for online resilient resource management of distributed scientific workflows

Scientific workflows have become mainstream for conducting large-scale scientific research. As a result, many workflow applications and Workflow Management Systems (WMSs) have been developed as part of the cyberinfrastructure to allow scientists to execute their applications seamlessly on a range of distributed platforms. Although the scientific community has addressed this challenge from both theoretical and practical approaches, failure prediction, detection, and recovery still raise many research questions. In this paper, we propose an approach inspired by the control theory developed as part of autonomic computing to predict failures before they happen, and mitigated them when possible. The proposed approach is inspired on the proportional–integral–derivative controller (PID controller) control loop mechanism, which is widely used in industrial control systems, where the controller will react to adjust its output to mitigate faults. PID controllers aim to detect the possibility of a non-steady state far enough in advance so that an action can be performed to prevent it from happening. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we tackle two common execution faults of large scale data-intensive workflows—data storage overload and memory overflow. We developed a simulator, which implements and evaluates simple standalone PID-inspired controllers to autonomously manage data and memory usage of a data-intensive bioinformatics workflow that consumes/produces over 4.4 TB of data, and requires over 24 TB of memory to run all tasks concurrently. Experimental results obtained via simulation indicate that workflow executions may significantly benefit from the controller-inspired approach, in particular under online and unknown conditions. Simulation results show that nearly-optimal executions (slowdown of 1.01) can be attained when utilizing our proposed method, and faults are detected and mitigated far in advance of their occurrence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data-Driven Passive Islanding Detection Scheme

This paper proposes a simple yet effective statistical parameters based passive islanding scheme. The proposed scheme relies only the voltage data, measured at the point of common coupling (PCC), and is comprised of three stages. The Stage-1 quickly computes what is termed as mean based coarse islanding detection (MID), Stage-2 computes the decaying DC detector (DDCD), and 3) finally, MID is used in conjunction with DDCD as per the statistical digital relay logic (SRDL) is devised in Stage-3 to distinguish between islanding events from non islanding events. Various tests are investigated on the Banshee's industrial Microgrid (MG), modelled in the Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS), on the basis of the IEEE-1547, UL 1741 standards. The validation of the proposed islanding detection methodology (PIDM) in RTDS platform ensures the viability of the proposed scheme in practical systems. The test results reveal that the PIDM can detect islanding within 2 cycles, and results in a very small non detection zone (NDZ). Moreover, the scheme can very well be used for single-phase MG too as it relies only on the single phase voltage information.

anti-islanding protection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the structural uncertainty of the aerosol mixing state representation in a modal model

Abstract. Aerosol mixing state is an important emergent property that affects aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions, but it has not been easy to constrain this property globally. This study aims to verify the global distribution of aerosol mixing state represented by modal models. To quantify the aerosol mixing state, we used the aerosol mixing state indices for submicron aerosol based on the mixing of optically absorbing and non-absorbing species (χo), the mixing of primary carbonaceous and non-primary carbonaceous species (χc), and the mixing of hygroscopic and non-hygroscopic species (χh). To achieve a spatiotemporal comparison, we calculated the mixing state indices using output from the Community Earth System Model with the four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) and compared the results with the mixing state indices from a benchmark machine-learned model trained on high-detail particle-resolved simulations from the particle-resolved stochastic aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. The two methods yielded very different spatial patterns of the mixing state indices. In some regions, the yearly averaged χ value computed by the MAM4 model differed by up to 70 percentage points from the benchmark values. These errors tended to be zonally structured, with the MAM4 model predicting a more internally mixed aerosol at low latitudes and a more externally mixed aerosol at high latitudes compared to the benchmark. Our study quantifies potential model bias in simulating mixing state in different regions and provides insights into potential improvements to model process representation for a more realistic simulation of aerosols towards better quantification of radiative forcing and aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Variance Estimation in Monte Carlo Eigenvalue Simulations Using Spectral Analysis Method

The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the 'gold standard' for performing nuclear reactor calculations and criticality safety analyses because of its ability to handle complex geometries and physics. Reactor and criticality safety analyses require solving eigenvalue problems in complex nuclear systems. Once a stationary fission source distribution is obtained in MC simulations, the sample mean of many stationary cycles is calculated. The MC simulation sample mean is typically referred to as a tally. Variance, or standard deviation, of the sample mean/tally is needed to indicate the level of statistical uncertainty in the simulation and to understand the convergence of the sample mean. Current MC codes typically use sample variance to estimate the statistical uncertainty of the simulation and assume that the MC stationary cycles are independent. However, it is known that cycles are correlated, and estimators of the variance that ignore these correlations systematically underestimate the variance. In this paper, we propose a novel method in the Fourier frequency domain to estimate the variance of the sample mean in MC eigenvalue calculations. Results indicate that the proposed estimator can be unbiased compared to the real variance. The proposed estimator requires minimal additional computing effort.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

High Order Anchoring and Reinitialization of Level Set Function for Simulating Interface Motion

A second order interface anchoring method has been developed and used with fast sweeping algorithm for reinitialization of a level set function. The algebraic anchoring formulation ensures that the location of the actual interface is preserved, leading to better mass conservation property. It also provides high order accurate algebraic constraint for solving the Eikonal equation on a finite difference grid. Geometric properties of the interface such as surface normal and curvature are subsequently computed from the reinitialized distance function. Various analytical functions for modeling distortion in level set field are considered and accuracy of reinitialization is evaluated using first and second order anchoring schemes. It is also shown that accurate computation of interface curvature requires a high order anchor in addition to a high order fast sweeping method. Mass conservation property of reinitialization is also analyzed by considering test problems from literature including the classic Rider–Kothe single vortex problem. The formulation is suitable for efficient parallelization for both distributed memory and on-node shared memory parallel systems. In conclusion, scalability and performance of the reinitialization scheme on multiple architectures are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1988

The identification of a distributed parameter model for a flexible structure

A computational method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a distributed model for a flexible structure. The structure we consider (part of the RPL experiment) consists of a cantilevered beam with a thruster and linear accelerometer at the free end. The thruster is fed by a pressurized hose whose horizontal motion effects the transverse vibration of the beam. The Euler-Bernoulli theory is used to model the vibration of the beam and treat the hose thruster assembly as a lumped or point mass dashpot spring system at the tip. Measurements of linear acceleration at the tip are used to estimate the hose parameters (mass, stiffness, damping) and a Voigt-Kelvin viscoelastic structural damping parameter for the beam using a least squares fit to the data. Spline based approximations are considered to the hybrid (coupled ordinary and partial differential equations) systems; theoretical convergence results and numerical studies with both simulation and actual experimental data obtained from the structure are presented and discussed.

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Real-time demonstration hardware for enhanced DPCM video compression algorithm

The lack of available wideband digital links as well as the complexity of implementation of bandwidth efficient digital video CODECs (encoder/decoder) has worked to keep the cost of digital television transmission too high to compete with analog methods. Terrestrial and satellite video service providers, however, are now recognizing the potential gains that digital video compression offers and are proposing to incorporate compression systems to increase the number of available program channels. NASA is similarly recognizing the benefits of and trend toward digital video compression techniques for transmission of high quality video from space and therefore, has developed a digital television bandwidth compression algorithm to process standard National Television Systems Committee (NTSC) composite color television signals. The algorithm is based on differential pulse code modulation (DPCM), but additionally utilizes a non-adaptive predictor, non-uniform quantizer and multilevel Huffman coder to reduce the data rate substantially below that achievable with straight DPCM. The non-adaptive predictor and multilevel Huffman coder combine to set this technique apart from other DPCM encoding algorithms. All processing is done on a intra-field basis to prevent motion degradation and minimize hardware complexity. Computer simulations have shown the algorithm will produce broadcast quality reconstructed video at an average transmission rate of 1.8 bits/pixel. Hardware implementation of the DPCM circuit, non-adaptive predictor and non-uniform quantizer has been completed, providing realtime demonstration of the image quality at full video rates. Video sampling/reconstruction circuits have also been constructed to accomplish the analog video processing necessary for the real-time demonstration. Performance results for the completed hardware compare favorably with simulation results. Hardware implementation of the multilevel Huffman encoder/decoder is currently under development along with implementation of a buffer control algorithm to accommodate the variable data rate output of the multilevel Huffman encoder. A video CODEC of this type could be used to compress NTSC color television signals where high quality reconstruction is desirable (e.g., Space Station video transmission, transmission direct-to-the-home via direct broadcast satellite systems or cable television distribution to system headends and direct-to-the-home).

Bizon, Thomas P.↗