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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Quantitative comparisons of electron-scale turbulence measurements in NSTX via synthetic diagnostics for high-k scattering.

Two synthetic diagnostics are implemented for the high-k scattering system in NSTX [D. R. Smith, E. Mazzucato, W. Lee, H. K. Park, C. W. Domier, and N. C. Luhmann Jr., Rev. Sci. Instrum., 79, 123501 (2008)] allowing direct comparisons between synthetic and experimentally detected frequency and wavenumber spectra of electron-scale turbulence fluctuations. Synthetic diagnostics were formulated in real-space and in wavenumber space, and were deployed to realistic electron-scale simulations carried out with the GYRO code [J. Candy and R. E. Waltz, J. Comput. Phys. 186 (2003) 545]. A highly unstable ETG regime (electron temperature gradient mode) in a modest beta NSTX NBI-heated H-mode discharge was chosen for the analysis. Mapping the measured wavenumbers to field aligned coordinates showed that the high-k system is sensitive to fluctuations that are closer to the spectral peak in the density fluctuation wavenumber spectrum (streamers) than originally predicted. Analysis of synthetic spectra show that the frequency response of the detected fluctuations is dominated by Doppler shift and insensitive to the turbulence drive. The shape of the high-k density fluctuation wavenumber spectrum is sensitive to the ETG turbulence drive conditions, and can be reproduced in a sensitivity scan of the most pertinent turbulent drive terms in the simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Hydrological models↗

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives to Estimate Uncertainty Propagation in CFD

Two methods that exploit the availability of sensitivity derivatives are successfully employed to predict uncertainty propagation through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code for an inviscid airfoil problem. An approximate statistical second-moment method and a Sensitivity Derivative Enhanced Monte Carlo (SDEMC) method are successfully demonstrated on a two-dimensional problem. First- and second-order sensitivity derivatives of code output with respect to code input are obtained through an efficient incremental iterative approach. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables); these sensitivity derivatives enable one to formulate first- and second-order Taylor Series approximations for the mean and variance of CFD output quantities. Additionally, incorporation of the first-order sensitivity derivatives into the data reduction phase of a conventional Monte Carlo (MC) simulation allows for improved accuracy in determining the first moment of the CFD output. Both methods are compared to results generated using a conventional MC method. The methods that exploit the availability of sensitivity derivatives are found to be valid when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Putko, Michele M.↗

Understanding Ice Supersaturation, Particle Growth, and Number Concentration in Cirrus Clouds

Many factors control the ice supersaturation and microphysical properties in cirrus clouds. We explore the effects of dynamic forcing, ice nucleation mechanisms, and ice crystal growth rate on the evolution and distribution of water vapor and cloud properties in nighttime cirrus clouds using a one-dimensional cloud model with bin microphysics and remote sensing measurements obtained at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility located near Lamont, OK. We forced the model using both large-scale vertical ascent and, for the first time, mean mesoscale velocity derived from radar Doppler velocity measurements. Both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation processes are explored, where a classical theory heterogeneous scheme is compared with empirical representations. We evaluated model simulations by examining both bulk cloud properties and distributions of measured radar reflectivity, lidar extinction, and water vapor profiles, as well as retrieved cloud microphysical properties. Our results suggest that mesoscale variability is the primary mechanism needed to reproduce observed quantities. Model sensitivity to the ice growth rate is also investigated. The most realistic simulations as compared with observations are forced using mesoscale waves, include fast ice crystal growth, and initiate ice by either homogeneous or heterogeneous nucleation. Simulated ice crystal number concentrations (tens to hundreds particles per liter) are typically two orders of magnitude smaller than previously published results based on aircraft measurements in cirrus clouds, although higher concentrations are possible in isolated pockets within the nucleation zone.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗

Low- n stability and plasma response to RMP in various STEP scenarios

The low-n (n is the toroidal mode number) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and plasma response are numerically investigated for various scenarios designed for STEP, that are relevant for the H-mode pedestal analysis. Control of the edge-localized modes (ELMs) with externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) is considered. Optimization of the ELM control coil current configuration, based on the computed plasma MHD response and well-established figures of merit validated on present-day experiments, finds reasonable robustness of a fixed coil phasing (for a given n-number) to control ELMs in all five STEP plasmas considered. Based on certain semi-empirical criteria, the required coil current to achieve ELM suppression is estimated to be about 10–20 kAt with the n = 1 or 2 RMP configuration and about 100–200 kAt for the n = 4 RMP. Systematic linear stability calculations are used to map out stability windows for the low-n kink-peeling modes, in terms of the ideal-wall location and variation of the edge safety factor q 95 with respect to the target design. The kink-peeling stability boundary is found to be generally sensitive to the q 95 variation, which has implications for achieving the quiescent H-mode regime in STEP. Full toroidal quasilinear initial-value simulations for these STEP plasmas find that generation of the edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) depends sensitively on the plasma scenario, the initial linear stability of the kink-peeling modes, the initial plasma toroidal flow and q 95 . In general, it is easier (more robust) to access the EHO-regime for two of the cases considered with smaller plasma volume and higher on-axis safety factor. Finally, quasilinear simulations find robust density pumpout due to applied RMPs in these STEP plasmas, but the effect on the plasma toroidal flow varies among different cases.

EHO↗

Some Developments of the Equilibrium Particle Simulation Method for the Direct Simulation of Compressible Flows

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is the established technique for the simulation of rarefied gas flows. In some flows of engineering interest, such as occur for aero-braking spacecraft in the upper atmosphere, DSMC can become prohibitively expensive in CPU time because some regions of the flow, particularly on the windward side of blunt bodies, become collision dominated. As an alternative to using a hybrid DSMC and continuum gas solver (Euler or Navier-Stokes solver) this work is aimed at making the particle simulation method efficient in the high density regions of the flow. A high density, infinite collision rate limit of DSMC, the Equilibrium Particle Simulation method (EPSM) was proposed some 15 years ago. EPSM is developed here for the flow of a gas consisting of many different species of molecules and is shown to be computationally efficient (compared to DSMC) for high collision rate flows. It thus offers great potential as part of a hybrid DSMC/EPSM code which could handle flows in the transition regime between rarefied gas flows and fully continuum flows. As a first step towards this goal a pure EPSM code is described. The next step of combining DSMC and EPSM is not attempted here but should be straightforward. EPSM and DSMC are applied to Taylor-Couette flow with Kn = 0.02 and 0.0133 and S(omega) = 3). Toroidal vortices develop for both methods but some differences are found, as might be expected for the given flow conditions. EPSM appears to be less sensitive to the sequence of random numbers used in the simulation than is DSMC and may also be more dissipative. The question of the origin and the magnitude of the dissipation in EPSM is addressed. It is suggested that this analysis is also relevant to DSMC when the usual accuracy requirements on the cell size and decoupling time step are relaxed in the interests of computational efficiency.

Macrossan, M. N.↗

Shortwave feedbacks and El Nino-Southern Oscillation: Forced ocean coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments

Changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) can produce changes in cloudiness that modify incoming solar shortwave (SW) radiation, which in turn affects SST. The effects of this negative feedback on Pacific interannual variability are examined in forced ocean model and hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations. Two empirical schemes are used to model the large-scale, low-frequency response of surface SW to SST anomalies. The first scheme attempts to account for the nonlocal nature of the atmospheric response to SST based patterns of covariability analyzed through singular value decomposition. In the observations the primary coupled mode of variability is composed of a SW anomaly in the central Pacific that covaries with anomalous SST in the eastern Pacific. This is applied in the model as a nonlocal feedback. The second scheme examines the effects of a purely local feedback with a spatially varying coefficient of magnitude chosen similar to the first scheme. In almost all cases the second scheme behaved similarly to the first, presumably because the correlation scale of SST is large enough for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that there is little sensitivity to the local approximation in the SW feedback. In simulations forced by time series of observed wind stress the SW feedback induced very minor SST damping. Results for a simpified heat budget analysis showed that while the SW feedback increased the local heat flux damping on SST, it also induced a mean shallowing of the mixed layer. The resulting changes in both the local mean vertical temperature gradient and the zonal velocity response to the wind stress acted to oppose the local heat flux damping effects. When the observed SW anomalies were applied to forced simulations, the simulated SST anomalies were modified as expected, and agreement with observed SST improved. In coupled simulations the SW feedbacks had greater impact than in the case of specified stress. The main effects were to decrease the magnitude of the warm and cold SST anomalies in the central Pacific, while leaving the pattern and evolution of ENSO anomalies essentially unchanged elsewhere. The SW feedbacks thus produce a modest improvement of the model ENSO SST pattern compared with observations, although they tended to shorten the period of the model ENSO cycle. Overall the results suggest that large-scale SW feedbacks are of quantitative importance to simulating some aspects of the ENSO cycle but are not critical to the overall occurrence of the phenomenon.

Waliser, Duane E.↗

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗

The effect of microgravity and space flight on the chemical senses

The effect of space flight and microgravity on the chemical senses is reviewed. Skylab-4 and Soyuz 30-31 studies revealed changes in taste thresholds while no effect was found in a Canadian investigation (41-G) and conflicting results were obtained on another Soyuz mission. Two simulated microgravity studies found no effect on taste or smell sensitivity; while 5 other studies found an effect. Microgravity induces physiological changes including an upward shift of body fluids toward the head, which may lead to an attenuation of the olfactory component in the flavor of foods. Chemosensory changes may also relate to space sickness, Shuttle atmosphere, stress, radiation, and psychological factors.

Review, Academic↗

Evaluation of VSAERO in prediction of aerodynamic characteristics of helicopter hub fairings

A low-order panel code, VSAERO, was used to predict the aerodynamic characteristics of helicopter hub fairings. Since the simulation of this kind of bluff body by VSAERO was not documented before, the VSAERO solutions were correlated with experimental data to establish their validity. The validation process revealed that simulation of the aerodynamic environment around a hub fairing was sensitive to several modeling parameters. Some of these parameters are body and wake panels arrangement, streamwise and spanwise separation location, and the most prominent one-the wake modeling. Three wake models were used: regular wake, separated wake, and jet model. The regular wake is a wake with negligible thickness (thin wake). It is represented by a single vortex sheet. The separated wake and the jet model in the present application are wakes with finite thickness (thick wake). They consist of a vortex sheet enclosing a region of low-energy flow. The results obtained with the reqular wake were marginally acceptable for sharp-edged hub fairings. For all other cases under consideration, the jet model results correlated slightly better. The separated wake, which seemed to be the most appropriate model, caused the solution to diverge. While the regular wake was straight-forward to apply in simulations, the jet model was not. It requires the user to provide information about the doublet strength gradient on wake panels by guessing the efflux velocities at the wake shedding location. In summary, VSAERO neither predicts accurately the aerodynamic characteristics of helicopter hub fairings nor was cost effective.

Louie, Alexander↗

Large deformation and brittle failure calculated using the dual-domain material point method

The dual domain material point (DDMP) method is explored as a candidate to be implemented in a general purpose code to perform simulations of materials with complex geometry that undergo large history-dependent deformation and failure. To test its candidacy, we study its mesh convergence, its sensitivity to mesh orientation, and its ability to handle softening and failure of a material. Simulations of large deformation and simulations of mechanical failure are performed using both DDMP and the material point method (MPM). When cell-crossing of material points is not an issue and when there are a sufficient number of material points in each computation cell, the numerical error decreases with the square of the cell size as expected for both MPM and DDMP. DDMP has reduced error compared with MPM when there are many instances of material points crossing cell boundaries due to the continuous nature of the modified gradient of the shape functions. Simulations of a specimen under tension are also performed where the background mesh is aligned and misaligned with the tension direction. MPM displays a significant mesh-dependent stress field, DDMP shows negligible mesh dependency. Despite a mesh orientation-dependent stress field from MPM, the critical tension and failure mode from both MPM and DDMP calculations have negligible mesh dependency when using a non-local failure model. If only the failure mode is important (i.e., local stresses are unimportant), MPM with a non-local failure model is a suitable method for modeling failure with small deformations. However, if local stresses are also important or if there are large deformations with many cell-crossings before failure, DDMP should be the method that is used. A needed improvement for DDMP is identified from our numerical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. VIII. Disk Formation and Evolution of Simulated Milky Way Mass Galaxy Progenitors at 1 < z < 5

We investigate how differences in the stellar feedback produce disks with different morphologies in Milky Way–like progenitors over 1 ≤ z ≤ 5, using eight state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamics simulation codes in the AGORA project. In three of the participating codes, a distinct, rotation-dominated inner core emerges with a formation timescale of ≲300 Myr, largely driven by a major merger event, while two other codes exhibit similar signs of wet compaction—gaseous shrinkage into a compact starburst phase—at earlier epochs. The remaining three codes show only weak evidence of wet compaction. Consequently, we divide the simulated galaxies into two groups: those with strong compaction signatures and those with weaker ones. Galaxies in these two groups differ in size, stellar age gradients, and disk-to-total mass ratios. Specifically, codes with strong wet compaction build their outer disks in an inside-out fashion, leading to negative age gradients, whereas codes with weaker compaction feature flat or positive age gradients caused primarily by outward stellar migration. Although the stellar half-mass radii of these two groups diverge at z ∼ 3, the inclusion of dust extinction brings their sizes and shapes in mock observations closer to each other and to observed galaxies. We attribute the observed morphological differences primarily to variations in the stellar feedback implementations—such as delayed cooling timescales, and feedback strengths—that regulate both the onset and duration of compaction. Overall, our results suggest that disk assembly at high redshifts is highly sensitive to the details of the stellar feedback prescriptions in simulations.

Jung, Minyong [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republ↗

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗

Mission Simulation of Space Lidar Measurements for Seasonal and Regional CO2 Variations

Results of mission simulation studies are presented for a laser-based atmospheric [82 sounder. The simulations are based on real-time carbon cycle process modeling and data analysis. The mission concept corresponds to the Active Sensing of [82 over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey of Earth Science and Applications from Space. One prerequisite for meaningful quantitative sensor evaluation is realistic CO2 process modeling across a wide range of scales, i.e., does the model have representative spatial and temporal gradients? Examples of model comparison with data will be shown. Another requirement is a relatively complete description of the atmospheric and surface state, which we have obtained from meteorological data assimilation and satellite measurements from MODIS and [ALIPS0. We use radiative transfer model calculations, an instrument model with representative errors ' and a simple retrieval approach to complete the cycle from "nature" run to "pseudo-data" CO2, Several mission and instrument configuration options are examined/ and the sensitivity to key design variables is shown. We use the simulation framework to demonstrate that within reasonable technological assumptions for the system performance, relatively high measurement precision can be obtained, but errors depend strongly on environmental conditions as well as instrument specifications. Examples are also shown of how the resulting pseudo - measurements might be used to address key carbon cycle science questions.

Kawa, Stephan↗

Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

Zenker, Thomas↗

The Impact of All-Sky Hyperspectral Infrared Radiance Assimilation on the Simulation and Forecast of Hurricane Sally in GEOS

Hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiance observations have been one of the major data sources assimilated in the data assimilation system over the last 20 years. However, observations peaking in the lower and mid-troposphere are underutilized in clear-sky radiance data assimilation as the quality control procedure removes a significant portion of cloud-affected observations from the assimilation. To include these cloud-affected observations, one approach is to assimilate them directly under all-sky conditions. The framework for all-sky assimilation of hyperspectral IR radiance observations has been developed in GEOS. The preliminary evaluation of simulated cloud-affected IR observations has been conducted, along with the corresponding sensitivities with respect to all hydrometeors. The symmetric cloud effect has been used as a cloud proxy in the observation error modeling, providing a balanced representation that mitigates the discrepancies between observations and model simulations for IR all-sky assimilation. The observation errors vary for different cloud conditions and have been modeled as cloud amount dependent and inter-channel correlated. Preliminary evaluation of model simulations for IR all-sky assimilation indicates that the simulated brightness temperature tends to have broader structures and lacks small-scale details. Excessive clouds generated by the model are also observed. To address this issue, Hurricane Sally (2020), which formed near the Bahamas, is used as a case study. Several cloud overlap schemes and cloud lookup tables (LUTs), along with other important aspects of all-sky IR radiance assimilation, will be evaluated and tested, aiming to improve the impact on Hurricane Sally's simulation and forecast.

Wei Gu↗

Application of sensitivity analysis in DYMOND/Dakota to fuel cycle transition scenarios

The ability to perform sensitivity analysis has been enabled for the nuclear fuel cycle simulator DYMOND through its coupling with the design and analysis toolkit Dakota. To test and demonstrate these new capabilities, a transition scenario and multi-parameter study were devised. The transition scenario represents a partial transition from the US nuclear fleet to a closed fuel cycle with small modular LWRs and fast reactors fueled by reprocessed used nuclear fuel. Four uncertain parameters in this transition were studied – start date of reprocessing, total reprocessing capacity, the nuclear energy demand growth, and the rate at which the fast reactors are deployed – with respect to their impact on four response metrics. The responses – total natural uranium consumed, maximum annual enrichment capacity required, total disposed mass, and total cost of the nuclear fuel cycle – were chosen based on measures known to be of interest in transition scenarios and to be significantly impacted by the varying parameters. Furthermore, analysis of this study was performed both from the direct sampling and through surrogate models developed in Dakota to calculate the global sensitivity measures Sobol’ indices. This example application of this new capability showed that the most consequential parameter to most metrics was the share of new build capacity that is fast reactors. However, for the cost metric, the scaling factor of the energy demand growth was significant and had synergistic behavior with the fast reactor new build share.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗