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NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗
NASA NTRS2018

How Can TOLNet Help to Better Understand Tropospheric Ozone? A Satellite Perspective

Potential sources of a priori ozone (O3) profiles for use in Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite tropospheric O3 retrievals are evaluated with observations from multiple Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) systems in North America. An O3 profile climatology (tropopause-based O3 climatology (TB-Clim), currently proposed for use in the TEMPO O3 retrieval algorithm) derived from ozonesonde observations and O3 profiles from three separate models (operational Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) product, reanalysis product from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2), and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM)) were: 1) evaluated with TOLNet measurements on various temporal scales (seasonally, daily, hourly) and 2) implemented as a priori information in theoretical TEMPO tropospheric O3 retrievals in order to determine how each a priori impacts the accuracy of retrieved tropospheric (0-10 km) and lowermost tropospheric (LMT, 0-2 km) O3 columns. We found that all sources of a priori O3 profiles evaluated in this study generally reproduced the vertical structure of summer-averaged observations. However, larger differences between the a priori profiles and lidar observations were observed when evaluating inter-daily and diurnal variability of tropospheric O3. The TB-Clim O3 profile climatology was unable to replicate observed inter-daily and diurnal variability of O3 while model products, in particular GEOS-Chem simulations, displayed more skill in reproducing these features. Due to the ability of models, primarily the CTM used in this study, on average to capture the inter-daily and diurnal variability of tropospheric and LMT O3 columns, using a priori profiles from CTM simulations resulted in TEMPO retrievals with the best statistical comparison with lidar observations. Furthermore, important from an air quality perspective, when high LMT O3 values were observed, using CTM a priori profiles resulted in TEMPO LMT O3 retrievals with the least bias. The application of time-specific (non-climatological) hourly/daily model predictions as the a priori profile in TEMPO O3 retrievals will be best suited when applying this data to study air quality or event-based processes as the standard retrieval algorithm will still need to use a climatology product. Follow-on studies to this work are currently being conducted to investigate the application of different CTM-predicted O3 climatology products in the standard TEMPO retrieval algorithm. Finally, similar methods to those used in this study can be easily applied by TEMPO data users to recalculate tropospheric O3 profiles provided from the standard retrieval using a different source of a priori.

Satellite↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Data-Driven Estimation of Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes in Asia Using a Standardized Database of Eddy Covariance Measurements, Remote Sensing Data, and Support Vector Regression

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated carbon dioxide fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r (exp 2) =0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r (exp 2)=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land carbon dioxide fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land carbon dioxide fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land carbon dioxide fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Educational Platform for Small Satellite Development with Proximity Operation Capabilities

An alternative to ground testing of small satellites is presented here, where the kinematics of a 3U underactuated CubeSat operating in 3 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) is reproduced by an omnidirectional wheeled platform, while satellite dynamics are simulated in real-time. The system is equipped with a relative navigation sensor in the form factor of a smartphone, the Smartphone Video Guidance Sensor (SVGS), allowing the platform to reproduce proximity operation maneuvers. The wheeled platform is used as an educational tool for students over a large range of academic levels, from high school to graduate school. A derivation of the kinematic relationship from satellite dynamics to rotacaster wheel velocities is presented, along with the guidance and control laws of the system. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the wheeled platform was able to successfully replicate detumble, slew, and attitude hold maneuvers of a 3U CubeSat.

Bertaska, Ivan R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A New Approach to Mission Classification and Risk Management for NASA Space Flight Missions

The NASA risk classification system is meant to uide space mission development from formulation through completion of implementation. It is also meant to be the basis on which program and project managers develop and implement appropriate mission assurance and risk management strategies for the mission. In order to be useful, the risk classification system needs to provide consistent and reproducible classification results so that missions may be designed with the appropriate components, subsystems, and testing philosophy, all of which impacts mission schedule and cost. In a cost-constrained environment, a clear, robust, and reproducible approach to mission implementation becomes more critical than ever before. Once a project's risk classification level is established, the managers can define the appropriate management controls, systems engineering processes, mission assurance requirements, safety, and testing for that mission. The current NASA mission classification system will be reviewed before a new system is proposed.NASA manages space flight missions according to a four-tiered classification which assumes increasing levels of risk. We argue that risk does not change between classes. What changes are the means available to reduce risk. In performance-driven missions, the project will spend money in order to maintain performance without reducing margins. In cost-constrained missions, performance will be reduced in order to stay within budget or to maintain schedule: measurement requirements may be traded, design life may be reduced, or both. We then propose a new approach to the classification of NASA space flight missions, based on an assessment of how flexible the requirements, how exquisite the measurements, how long the lifetime, and how rigid the budget.Our proposed approach makes possible a clearer differentiation between classification levels and more effective guidance to program and project managers.

Bordi, Francesco↗
NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Constraining the Models' Response of Tropical Clouds to SST Forcings Using CALIPSO Observations

Here we present preliminary results from the analysis of the low cloud cover (LCC) and cloud radiative effect (CRE) interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in two GISS climate models, and 12 other climate models. We further classify them as a function of their ability to reproduce the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO observations: “the constrained models, which match the observation constraint, and the unconstrained models”. The constrained models replicate the observed interannual LCC change particularly well (ΔLCC(sub con)=-3.49 ±1.01 %/K vs. ΔLCC(sub obs)=-3.59 ±0.28 %/K) as opposed to the unconstrained models, which largely underestimate it (ΔLCC(sub unc) = -1.32 ± 1.28 %/K). As a result, the amount of short-wave warming simulated by the constrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=2.60 ±1.13 W/m2/K) is in better agreement with the observations (ΔCRE(sub obs)=3.05 ±0.28 W/m2/K) than the unconstrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=0.87 ±2.63 W/m2/K). Depending on the type of low cloud, the observed relationship between cloud/radiation and surface temperature varies. Over the stratocumulus regions, increasing SSTs generate higher cloud top height along with a large decrease of the cloud fraction below as opposed to a slight decrease of the cloud fraction at each level over the trade cumulus regions. Our results suggest that the models must generate sustainable stratocumulus decks and moist processes in the planetary boundary layer to reproduce these observed features. Future work will focus on defining a method to objectively discriminate these cloud types that can be applied consistently in both the observations and the models.

Cesana, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS2018

Magnetic Helicity Condensation and the Solar Cycle

Solar filaments exhibit a global chirality pattern where dextral/sinistral filaments, corresponding to negative/ positive magnetic helicity, are dominant in the northern/southern hemisphere. This pattern is opposite to the sign of magnetic helicity injected by differential rotation along east–west oriented polarity inversion lines, posing a major conundrum for solar physics. A resolution of this problem is offered by the magnetic helicity-condensation model of Antiochos. To investigate the global consequences of helicity condensation for the hemispheric chirality pattern, we apply a temporally and spatially averaged statistical approximation of helicity condensation. Realistic magnetic field configurations in both the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle are simulated. For the helicity-condensation process, we assume convective cells consisting of positive/negative vorticities in the northern/southern hemisphere that inject negative/positive helicity. The magnitude of the vorticity is varied as a free parameter, corresponding to different rates of helicity injection. To reproduce the observed percentages of dominant and minority filament chiralities, we find that a vorticity of magnitude 2.5 x 10(exp −6)/s is required. This rate, however, is insufficient to produce the observed unimodal profile of chirality with latitude. To achieve this, a vorticity of at least 5 x 10(exp −6)/s is needed. Our results place a lower limit on the small-scale helicity injection required to dominate differential rotation and reproduce the observed hemispheric pattern. Future studies should aim to establish whether the helicity injection rate due to convective flows and/or flux emergence across all latitudes of the Sun is consistent with our results.

Mackay, Duncan H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Uncertainty in Initial CME Input Parameters on Deflection, Rotation, Bz, and Arrival Time Predictions

Understanding the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires knowing if and when they will impact and their properties upon impact. Of particular importance is the strength of a CME's southward magnetic field component (Bz ). Kay et al. (2013, https://doi:10.1088/0004-637X/775/1/5, 2015, https://doi:10.1088/948 0004-637X/805/2/168) have shown that the simplified analytic model Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) can reproduce the deflection and rotation of CMEs. Kay, Gopalswamy, Reinard, and Opher (2017, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/835/2/117) introduced ForeCAT In situ Data Observer, which uses ForeCAT results to simulate magnetic field profiles. ForeCAT In situ Data Observer reproduces the in situ observations on roughly hourly time scales, suggesting that these models could be extremely useful for predictions of Bz . However, as with all models, both models are sensitive to their input parameters, which may not be precisely known for predictions. We explore this sensitivity using ensembles having small changes in the initial latitude, longitude, and orientation of the erupting CME. We explore the effects of different background magnetic field models and find that the changes in deflection and rotation resulting from the uncertainty in the initial parameters tend to exceed the changes from dierent magnetic backgrounds. The range in the in situ proles tends to scale with the range in the deflection and rotation. We also consider a simple arrival time model using ForeCAT results and nd an average absolute error of only 3 hr. We show that an uncertainty in the CME position of 8.1 ± 6.9 leads to variations of 6 hr in the arrival time. This measure depends strongly on the location of impact within the CME with the arrival time changing less for impacts near the nose.

Kay, Christina D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Computational Non-Destructive Evaluation Improving Ultrasonic Interrogation of Complex Geometry Composite Parts

Finite element simulation was employed in modeling the ultrasound (UT) pressure pulse propagation through a coupled liquid-composite medium to reproduce experimental data. From the simulation point of view, the proposed approach is challenging when there is a large simulation domain. For example, it is shown that a sub-micron wavelength of an ultrasonic wave requires a mesh size of several microns and this in turn requires significant computational resources, as well as special care in modeling. Some of the simulation results are presented considering that such modeling should reproduce experimental data for a healthy and faulty composite structure with complex geometry. Many possible experimental setups are simulated to demonstrate the non-destructive testing technique. This setup includes the generation of pressure pulse propagating through the tested composite plate and possible scattering by discontinuities (area of different impedance) that may be present in the panel. This scattered pulse together with the baseline pressure pulse generates a signature on the probe element which can be used to locate the position of defects in the structures.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS2020

El Niño Related Tropical Land Surface Water and Energy Response in MERRA-2

Though El Niño events each have distinct evolutionary character they typically provide systematic large scale forcing for warming and increased drought frequency across the tropical continents. We assess this response in the MERRA-2 reanalysis and in a ten-member model AMIP ensemble. The lagged response (3-4 months) of mean tropical land temperature to El Niño warming in the Pacific Ocean is well represented. MERRA-2 reproduces the patterns of precipitation in the tropical regions, while the AMIP ensemble reproduces some regional responses better than others. Model skill is dependent on event forcing strength and temporal proximity to the peak of the sea surface warming. A composite approach centered on maximum Niño3.4 SSTs and lag relationships to energy fluxes and transports is used to identify mechanisms supporting tropical land warming. The composite necessarily moderates weather scale variability of the individual events, while retaining the systematic features across all events. We find that that reduced continental upward motions lead to reduced cloudiness and more shortwave radiation at the surface, as well as reduced precipitation. The increased shortwave heating at the land surface, along with reduced soil moisture leads to warmer surface temperature, more sensible heating and warming of the lower troposphere. While the composite provides a broad picture of the mechanisms governing the hydrologic response to El Niño forcing, the regional and temporal response in any given event can be quite variable. The 2015-16 El Niño, one of the strongest events, demonstrates some of the forced response noted in the composite, but with shifts in the evolution that depart from the composite, demonstrating the limitations of the composite and individuality of El Niño.

Michael G Bosilovich↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Model Study of the Relative Influences of Scavenging and Circulation on 230Th and 231Pa in the Western North Atlantic

The oceanic cycles of thorium-230 and protactinium-231 are affected by a number of processes, such as removal by adsorption to settling particles and transport by ocean currents. Measurements obtained as part of GEOTRACES and earlier programs have shown that, in the North Atlantic, the activities of dissolved 230Th (230Thd) and 231Pa (231Pad) at abyssal depths are lower near the western margin than in the basin interior. At least two factors could explain the lower 230Thd and 231Pad near the margin: (i) intensified scavenging in benthic nepheloid layers (BNLs) extending a thousand meters or more above the seafloor; and (ii) ventilation by relatively 230Thd- and 231Pad-poor waters emanating from the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC).Here a regional ocean circulation model with ?eddy-permitting' resolution (1/4) that incorporates 230Th and 231Pa is used in an effort to reproduce the observed distributions of 230Th and 231Pa in the western North Atlantic. In this model, 230Th and 231Pa removal from solution is governed by a prescribed distribution of particulate matter that is derived from a recent synthesis of nephelometer and transmissometer data. The model simulates a meandering Gulf Stream and a DWBC along the continental slope and rise, although noticeable differences with physical observations also exist. A model solution is found that explains most of the variance of 230Thd measurements (85%) and 231Pad measurements (81%) from (pre-)GEOTRACES cruises. On the other hand, measurements of particulate 230Th (230Thp) and 231Pa (231Pap) are more difficult to reproduce, with the same solution accounting for only 49% (11%) of the 230Thp (231Pap) variance. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the low 230Thd and 231Pad activities observed near the western margin are due to enhanced removal rates of both nuclides in BNLs rather than to deep water ventilation from the western boundary. The radionuclide activities present in the DWBC at its inflow location are also found to strongly influence the basin-scale distributions of 230Th and 231Pa. Overall, our study points to BNLs as important sites of 230Th and 231Pa scavenging in the ocean and illustrates the difficulty to explain simultaneously radionuclide measurements in dissolved and particulate forms in the studied area.

Lerner, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2020

Improving Quantitative Laboratory Analysis of Phycobiliproteins to Provide High Quality Validation Data for Ocean Color Remote Sensing Algorithm

Identification and characterization of phytoplankton communities and their physiology is a primary aim of NASA's PACE satellite mission. The concentration and composition of phytoplankton pigments modulate the spectral distribution of light emanating from the ocean, which is measured by ocean color satellites, and thus provide critical information on phytoplankton community composition and physiological parameters. One diagnostic class of pigments not routinely well-characterized is the phycobiliproteins (PBPs), and NASA has a requirement to collect and distribute high quality in situ data in support of data product validation activities for ocean color missions. Phycobiliproteins are light-harvesting proteins that are the predominant photosynthetic pigments in some classes of phytoplankton including cyanobacteria, such as Synechococcus, Trichodesmium, and Microcystis. With the advance of hyperspectral ocean color sensors such as on PACE (expected to launch in late 2022), it is essential that we implement routine analysis of PBPs that satisfies several considerations: reproducible, high extraction efficiency for a variety of environments, and Suitable for large scale analysis. Published techniques for PBP analysis vary in recommendations for: collection, extraction, disruption mode, and analysis; evidence suggests the variation in results may depend at least in part on the species and even strain(s) of interest. Experiments that tested variations in these parameters have drawn very different conclusions regarding extraction efficiency and reproducibility. Cyanobacteria are more difficult to extract than other PBP-containing algae such as cryptophytes, but can be important primary producers. We used a cryptophyte (Rhodomonas salina) and cyanobacterium (Synechococcus sp.) to compare extraction efficiencies of water samples concentrated via centrifugation to filtered samples using two different extraction buffers (phosphate and asolectin-CHAPS). Samples were analyzed on a fluorometer configured for PC and PE detection. The results have important implications for collection and storage of samples for routine analysis; some previous studies (although not all) have suggested that filtered samples have a much lower extraction efficiency than whole water samples.

Kenemer, Christopher↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗
NASA NTRS2018

Isochronal Age-mass Discrepancy of Young Stars: SCExAO/CHARIS Integral Field Spectroscopy of the HIP 79124 Triple System

We present SCExAO/CHARIS 1.1-2.4 μm integral field direct spectroscopy of the young HIP 79124 triple system. HIP 79124 is a member of the Scorpius-Centaurus association, consisting of an A0V primary with two low-mass companions at a projected separation of < 1″. Thanks to the high quality wavefront corrections provided by SCExAO, both companions are decisively detected without the employment of any PSF-subtraction algorithm to eliminate quasi-static noise. The spectrum of the outer C object is very well matched by Upper Scorpius M4 ± 0.5 standard spectra, with a T(eff) = 2945 ± 100 K and a mass of ∼350 M(Jup). HIP 79124 B is detected at a separation of only 180 mas in a highly-correlated noise regime, and it falls in the spectral range M6 ± 0.5 with T(eff) = 2840 ± 190 K and ∼100 M(Jup). Previous studies of stellar populations in Sco-Cen have highlighted a discrepancy in isochronal ages between the lower-mass and higher-mass populations. This could be explained either by an age spread in the region, or by conventional isochronal models failing to reproduce the evolution of low-mass stars. The HIP 79124 system should be coeval, and therefore it provides an ideal laboratory to test these scenarios. We place the three components in a color-magnitude diagram and find that the models predict a younger age for the two low-mass companions (∼3 Myr) than for the primary star (∼6 Myr). These results imply that the omission of magnetic effects in conventional isochronal models inhibit them from reproducing early low-mass stellar evolution, which is further supported by the fact that new models that include such effects provide more consistent ages in the HIP 79124 system.

Ruben Asensio-Torres↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Causes of Model Biases in Simulating Inorganic Aerosol Composition During KORUS-AQ and Implications for the Estimate of Transboundary Pollution

East Asia is a region of increasing economic growth which has led to severe PM2.5 pollution in urban areas. The joint NASA-NIER Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May-June 2016 provided an extensive dataset of ground, airborne, and remote sensing observations to test model simulations of PM2.5 pollution transport and potential control measures. During KORUS-AQ, a period of haze was observed in which PM2.5 rapidly increased to the highest levels observed during the campaign. This increase is associated with increasing inorganic aerosol. While a portion of this increase is due to long-range transport, there is observational evidence that aerosol formation from local precursors was also enhanced. This suggests that domestic policy measures could have a greater than expected influence on controlling PM2.5. However, models have difficulty reproducing PM2.5 levels, particularly the composition of secondary inorganic aerosol. Models generally underestimate sulfate and overestimate nitrate and fail to represent the peak levels of PM2.5 during haze events. These biases have been chiefly attributed to errors in chemical mechanisms and model meteorology, not issues with underlying emissions inventories. Here, we use observations from KORUS-AQ interpreted by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve the model’s ability to reproduce secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations during the campaign and explore mechanisms to improve model biases during the haze event. We assess the fraction of inorganic aerosol from the improved model simulation that results from transboundary transport during KORUS-AQ and test the model sensitivity to potential emission reduction measures that could improve air quality in Seoul during different meteorological periods including haze episodes.

Katie Travis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Sub-Mesoscales at Ocean Fronts: Dissipation of Eddy Kinetic Energy

D’Asaro et al. measured the dissipation of eddy kinetic energy at the Kuroshio ocean front, found it to be 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than the value predicted by the law of the wall and suggested that the enhancement is due to sub-mesoscales, SM. To assess their suggestion, we employ two SM models. In the first model the buoyancy flux is based on baroclinic instabilities only and there is no momentum flux (Reynolds stresses). The model is unable to reproduce the Kuroshio data. The second model includes baroclinic instabilities, wind stress and Reynolds stresses. It reproduces the data satisfactorily. The analytic formula for the dissipation that we present can be used in OGCMs to parameterize dissipation at ocean fronts other than Kuroshio, e.g., Gulf Stream and ACC, an extension that could improve the predictions of climate studies.

sub-mesoscale models↗