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NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2002

SEARCH Workshop on Large-Scale Atmosphere/Cryosphere Observations

The purpose of the workshop held in Seattle during 27-29 November 2001 was to review existing land, sea ice, and atmospheric observations and the prospect for an Arctic System Reanalysis, through white papers, invited speakers, and panels. A major task for SEARCH was to determine how existing observation systems can be best used and enhanced to understand and anticipate the course of the ongoing changes in the Arctic. The primary workshop conclusion is that there is no cohesion among various Arctic disciplines and data types to form a complete observation set of Arctic change; a second workshop conclusion is that present data sets are vastly underutilized in understanding Arctic change; a third conclusion is that a distributed observing system must accommodate a wide range of spatial patterns of variability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Yung, Yuk L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

K-shell Photoabsorption of Oxygen Ions

The high spectral resolutions of the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray observatories have unveiled the useful diagnostic possibilities of oxygen K absorption. To mention a few, strong O VII and O VIII edges are almost ubiquitous in the spectra of Seyfert 1 galaxies which have been used by Lee et al. (2001) to predict of a warm dust absorber along the line of sight; although this conclusion has been criticized in the light of a data reanalysis (SA0 et al. 2003), Steenbrugge et al. (2003) have detected inner-shell transitions of O III-O VI in the spectrum of NGC 5548 that point to a warm absorber that spans three orders of magnitude in ionization parameter. Moreover, Behar et al. (2003) have stressed that, in the case of both Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies, a broad range of oxygen charge states are usually observed along the line of sight that must be fitted simultaneously, and may imply strong density gradients of 2-4 orders of magnitude over short distances.

Garcia, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Discovery of a Be/X-Ray Binary Consistent with the Location of GRO J2058+42

GRO J2058+42 is a 195 s transient X-ray pulsar discovered in 1995 with BATSE. In 1996, RXTE located GRO J2058+42 to a 90% confidence error circle with a 4 radius. On 2004 February 20, the region including the error circle was observed with Chandra ACIS-I. No X-ray sources were detected within the error circle; however, two faint sources were detected in the ACIS-I field of view. We obtained optical observations of the brightest object, CXOU J205847.5+414637, which had about 64 X-ray counts and was just 013 outside the error circle. The optical spectrum contains a strong Ha line and corresponds to an inhued object in the Two Micron All Sky Survey catalog, indicating a Be/X-ray binary system. Pulsations were not detected in the Chandra observations, but similar flux variations and distance estimates suggest that CXOU J205847.5+414637 and GRO J2058+42 are the same object. We present results from the Chandra observation, optical observations, new and previously unreported RXTE observations, and a reanalysis of a ROSAT observation.

Wilson, Colleen↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Extent of a Deep Moonquake Nest: A Preliminary Report of Reexamination

Deep moonquakes, occurring at depths about halfway to the center of the Moon, were discovered during the Apollo lunar landing missions, 1969-1972. Their near-monthly occurrence with nearly identical waveforms at any given seismic station suggests that they are strongly influenced by tides, caused by the Earth and the Sun, acting on certain limited regions of the deep lunar interior. However, much about them is unknown, why they are restricted to certain depths and to limited source regions (nests), and what they tell us about the nature of the material and dynamics of the interior of the Moon. A piece of information helpful to decipher their true nature is the spatial extent and distribution of their hypocenters. The occurrence of nearly identical waveforms suggests groups of hypocenters appear in close proximity to one another, but can we tell how closely they are located and how they are distributed? The Apollo PSE (Passive Seismic Experiment) data from all stations of the seismic network were received in real time at a common receiving station on Earth in digital form. This provided extremely high inter-station timing accuracy not achievable for most earthquake data on Earth at that time. We took advantage of this to compute relative locations of waveform-matched events, and concluded that deep moonquake foci in the A1 moonquake nest were concentrated on a nearly horizontal plane of less than 1 km in diameter. This earlier study was based on deep moonquake events visually identified on seismograms. A recent reanalysis of earlier unidentified seismic events fully utilizing the high capability of present-day computers expanded the list of positively identified deep moonquakes by more than a factor of five. The new list contains many events that are not visually matched in waveforms, yet correlated at a significant level when cross-correlated with a computer. Thus it became imperative to reexamine the spatial distribution of deep moonquake hypocenters including the newly identified events. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Nakamura, Yosio↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design Process for High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Improved by Neural Network and Regression Methods

A key challenge in designing the new High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft is determining a good match between the airframe and engine. Multidisciplinary design optimization can be used to solve the problem by adjusting parameters of both the engine and the airframe. Earlier, an example problem was presented of an HSCT aircraft with four mixed-flow turbofan engines and a baseline mission to carry 305 passengers 5000 nautical miles at a cruise speed of Mach 2.4. The problem was solved by coupling NASA Lewis Research Center's design optimization testbed (COMETBOARDS) with NASA Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System (FLOPS). The computing time expended in solving the problem was substantial, and the instability of the FLOPS analyzer at certain design points caused difficulties. In an attempt to alleviate both of these limitations, we explored the use of two approximation concepts in the design optimization process. The two concepts, which are based on neural network and linear regression approximation, provide the reanalysis capability and design sensitivity analysis information required for the optimization process. The HSCT aircraft optimization problem was solved by using three alternate approaches; that is, the original FLOPS analyzer and two approximate (derived) analyzers. The approximate analyzers were calibrated and used in three different ranges of the design variables; narrow (interpolated), standard, and wide (extrapolated).

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Ocean Evaporation: A Comparison of Microwave Satellite and Assimilation Results

Remote sensing methodologies for turbulent heat fluxes over oceans depend on driving bulk formulations of fluxes with measured surface winds and estimated near surface thermodynamics from microwave sensors of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) heritage. We will review recent work with a number of SSM/I-based algorithms and investigate the ability of current data sets to document global, tropical ocean-averaged evaporation changes in association with El Nino and La Nina SST changes. We show that in addition to interannual signals, latent heat flux increases over the period since late 1987 range from approx. .1 to .6 mm/ day are present; these represent trends 2 to 3 times larger than the NCEP Reanalysis. Since atmospheric storage cannot account for the difference, and since compensating evapotranspiration changes over land are highly unlikely to be this large, these evaporation estimates cannot be reconciled with ocean precipitation records such as those produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP. The reasons for the disagreement include less than adequate intercalibration between SSM/I sensors providing winds and water vapor for driving the algorithms, biases due to the assumption that column integrated water vapor mirrors near surface water vapor variations, and other factors as well. The reanalyses have their own problems with spin-up during assimilation, lack of constraining input data at the ocean surface, and amplitude of synoptic transients.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Cascade Optimization Strategy with Neural Network and Regression Approximations Demonstrated on a Preliminary Aircraft Engine Design

A preliminary aircraft engine design methodology is being developed that utilizes a cascade optimization strategy together with neural network and regression approximation methods. The cascade strategy employs different optimization algorithms in a specified sequence. The neural network and regression methods are used to approximate solutions obtained from the NASA Engine Performance Program (NEPP), which implements engine thermodynamic cycle and performance analysis models. The new methodology is proving to be more robust and computationally efficient than the conventional optimization approach of using a single optimization algorithm with direct reanalysis. The methodology has been demonstrated on a preliminary design problem for a novel subsonic turbofan engine concept that incorporates a wave rotor as a cycle-topping device. Computations of maximum thrust were obtained for a specific design point in the engine mission profile. The results (depicted in the figure) show a significant improvement in the maximum thrust obtained using the new methodology in comparison to benchmark solutions obtained using NEPP in a manual design mode.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Global Rapid Integrated Monitoring System for Water Cycle and Water Resource Assessment (Global-RIMS)

The main focus of our work was to solidify underlying data sets, the data processing tools and the modeling environment needed to perform a series of long-term global and regional hydrological simulations leading eventually to routine hydrometeorological predictions. A water and energy budget synthesis was developed for the Mississippi River Basin (Roads et al. 2003), in order to understand better what kinds of errors exist in current hydrometeorological data sets. This study is now being extended globally with a larger number of observations and model based data sets under the new NASA NEWS program. A global comparison of a number of precipitation data sets was subsequently carried out (Fekete et al. 2004) in which it was further shown that reanalysis precipitation has substantial problems, which subsequently led us to the development of a precipitation assimilation effort (Nunes and Roads 2005). We believe that with current levels of model skill in predicting precipitation that precipitation assimilation is necessary to get the appropriate land surface forcing.

Roads, John↗
NASA NTRS2006

Mitigation Strategies for Acute Radiation Exposure during Space Flight

While there are many potential risks in a Moon or Mars mission, one of the most important and unpredictable is that of crew radiation exposure. The two forms of radiation that impact a mission far from the protective environment of low-earth orbit, are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). The effects of GCR occur as a long-term cumulative dose that results increased longer-term medical risks such as malignancy and neurological degeneration. Unfortunately, relatively little has been published on the medical management of an acute SPE that could potentially endanger the mission and harm the crew. Reanalysis of the largest SPE in August 1972 revealed that the dose rate was significantly higher than previously stated in the literature. The peak dose rate was 9 cGy h(sup -1) which exceeds the low-dose-rate criteria for 25 hrs (National Council on Radiation Protection) and 16 hrs (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation). The bone marrow dose accumulated was 0.8 Gy, which exceeded the 25 and 16 hour criteria and would pose a serious medical risk. Current spacesuits would not provide shielding from the damaging effects for an SPE as large as the 1972 event, as increased shielding from 1-5 gm/cm(sup 2) would do little to shield the bone marrow from exposure. Medical management options for an acute radiation event are discussed based on recommendations from the Department of Homeland Security, Centers for Disease Control and evidence-based scientific literature. The discussion will also consider how to define acute exposure radiation safety limits with respect to exploration-class missions, and to determine the level of care necessary for a crew that may be exposed to an SPE similar to August 1972.

Hamilton, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Principle Component Analysis of the Evolution of the Saharan Air Layer and Dust Transport: Comparisons between a Model Simulation and MODIS Retrievals

The onset and evolution of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) episodes during June-September 2002 are diagnosed by applying principal component analysis to the NCEP reanalysis temperature anomalies at 850 hPa, where the largest SAL-induced temperature anomalies are located. The first principal component (PC) represents the onset of SAL episodes, which are associated with large warm anomalies located at the west coast of Africa. The second PC represents two opposite phases of the evolution of the SAL. The positive phase of the second PC corresponds to the southwestward extension of the warm anomalies into the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, and the negative phase corresponds to the northwestward extension into the subtropical to mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean and the southwest Europe. A dust transport model (CARMA) and the MODIS retrievals are used to study the associated effects on dust distribution and deposition. The positive (negative) phase of the second PC corresponds to a strengthening (weakening) of the offshore flows in the lower troposphere around 10deg - 20degN, causing more (less) dust being transported along the tropical to subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. The variation of the offshore flow indicates that the subseasonal variation of African Easterly Jet is associated with the evolution of the SAL. Significant correlation is found between the second PC time series and the daily West African monsoon index, implying a dynamical linkage between West African monsoon and the evolution of the SAL and Saharan dust transport.

Wong, S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Image-Subtraction Photometry of Variable Stars in the Globular Clusters NGC 6388 and NGC 6441

We have applied Alard's image subtraction method (ISIS v2.1) to the observations of the globular clusters NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 previously analyzed using standard photometric techniques (DAOPHOT, ALLFRAME). In this reanalysis of observations obtained at CTIO, besides recovering the variables previously detected on the basis of our ground-based images, we have also been able to recover most of the RR Lyrae variables previously detected only in the analysis of Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 observations of the inner region of NGC 6441. In addition, we report five possible new variables not found in the analysis of the EST observations of NGC 6441. This dramatically illustrates the capabilities of image subtraction techniques applied to ground-based data to recover variables in extremely crowded fields. We have also detected twelve new variables and six possible variables in NGC 6388 not found in our previous groundbased studies. Revised mean periods for RRab stars in NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 are 0.676 day and 0.756 day, respectively. These values are among the largest known for any galactic globular cluster. Additional probable type II Cepheids were identified in NGC 6388, confirming its status as a metal-rich globular cluster rich in Cepheids.

Corwin, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

"Weekend-effect" evidence for intensification of storms by pollution over U.S.

Aerosols change the way precipitating clouds evolve, due to their effect on condensation and ice formation. The net effect of aerosols on precipitation varies depending on the local environment and synoptic situation, the types of aerosols, and also on how far downstream one looks for effects. Repeated experiments with controlled release of aerosols would be helpful in unraveling how aerosols affect precipitation. The weekly variation in human activity may provide just such a set of experiments. Using the rainfall estimates from the passive microwave instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which has been orbiting for over eight years and can view areas as far north as about 40 degs, we find that there is indeed a weekly variation in summer (JJA) rainfall over the southeastern U.S. land area, with the average rain rate peaking in the middle of the week (Tue-Thu). Rainfall over nearby oceanic areas, on the other hand, seems to peak on weekends. A bootstrap statistical test indicates that the variations are unlikely to be due to chance. Physically related weekly variations in the statistics of ground-based measurements and model reanalysis data are found. The midweek peak in rainfall over land coincides with the well documented midweek peak in pollution around much of the U.S., and is unlikely to be due to other weekly variations in human influence. The midweek increase is also unlikely to be a consequence of the radiative heating or cooling of the atmosphere by the aerosols.

Bell, T. L.↗