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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An alternative to Monte Carlo.

Histogram construction via algebraic Monte Carlo method, determining simultaneous effect of several input statistical variables on output variable

PROBABILITY THEORY↗

Design and sparing techniques to meet specified performance life

Specified performance life technique starts with the general description of what is wanted, defines in block diagram the operational needs, and then defines the functional systems required. The technique is similar to a truncated reliability model, but the calculation is simplified by use of a Poisson distribution approach to failure probability.

Holstead, A. J., Jr.↗

Apparent associations between bright galaxies and quasi-stellar objects.

A comparison of the spatial distribution of the 47 identified QSOs in the 3C and 3CR catalogs with the small-redshift galaxies contained in the Reference Catalog of Bright Galaxies shows that four QSOs with redshift in the range 0.5-1.4 are much closer to bright galaxies than would be expected if the 47 QSOs were distributed randomly. An extensive analysis of the distributions shows that the probability that this is a chance occurrence is less than 0.005. It is also shows that the radio-quiet QSO PHL 1226 lies very close to IC 1746 to which it appears to have a physical connection.

Burbidge, E. M.↗

Simultaneous observations of the proton ring current and stable auroral red arcs

Explorer 45 observed the equatorial proton ring current in the plasmapause region and Fritz Peak Observatory observed stable auroral red (SAR) arcs on Dec. 17, 1971 during a geomagnetic storm. An estimate of energy lost from the ring current was obtained by using Explorer 45 observations of pitch angle distribution transitions which are probably due to pitch angle diffusion-driven resonant interactions with ion cyclotron waves. Estimates of the equatorial loss rate yield values greater than the required SAR arc energy input rate, and the location of the peaks in these loss rates agrees with the observed location of the arcs. It is thus concluded that this energy loss is sufficient to sustain the SAR arcs.

Williams, D. J.↗

Mineralogic and petrologic implications of Viking geochemical results from Mars - Interim report

Chemical results from four samples of Martian fines delivered to Viking landers 1 and 2 are remarkably similar in that they all have high iron; moderate magnesium, calcium, and sulfur; low aluminum; and apparently very low alkalies and trace elements. This composition is best interpreted as representing the weathering products of mafic igneous rocks. A mineralogic model, derived from computer mixing studies and laboratory analog preparations, suggests that Mars fines could be an intimate mixture of about 80% iron-rich clay, about 10% magnesium sulfate (kieserite), about 5% carbonate (calcite), and about 5% iron oxides (hematite, magnetite, maghemite, goethite). The mafic nature of the present fines (distributed globally) and their probable source rocks seems to preclude large-scale planetary differentiation of a terrestrial nature.

Baird, A. K.↗

Balloon-borne imagery of the solar granulation. II - The lifetime of solar granulation

Phenomenological aspects of the temporal evolution of photospheric granulation are reported as derived from time series of granulation photographs obtained during a flight of a balloon-borne telescope. The distribution of granule lifetime probabilities is determined, and it is found that the data can be represented by an exponential decrease with a 'decay constant' of 5.9 min. The general properties of granular evolution are described along with the way individual granules evolve with time. The most common type of granule is shown to be a medium-sized or small fragment, and it is suggested that all granules are produced by fragmentation of preexisting granules. The relative frequencies of granule destruction by fragmentation, fading, and merging are determined to be 51%, 21%, and 28%, respectively. An average radial velocity of 0.8 km/s is computed for conglomerates with an average diameter of 2.25 arcsec.

Mehltretter, J. P.↗

The intercrater plains of Mercury and the Moon: Their nature, origin and role in terrestrial planet evolution. Chronology of surface history of Mercury

Phases in the history of the planet Mercury include: (1) condensation and accretion; (2) heating; (3) planetary expansion during heavy bombardment; (4) tidal spin-down and lineament formation; (5) P5 plains emplacement; (6) P4 plains emplacement; (7) peak planetary volume in P3 period; (8) scarp formation; (9) Caloris Basin formation, late class 3; (10) scarp formation and P2 plains formation; (11) smooth plains formation in and around large basins; (12) late or local tectonic stress; and (13) quiescent class 1 period. Although the cooling and contraction of the lithosphere are complete, the core remains molten as an active dynamo, producing the magnetic fields detected by Mariner 10. Plains produced since core formation (P3 to P-1) should record its magnetic activity. Cratering during the Class 2 and Class 1 periods is probably not enough to distribute ballistic materials and homogenize any color differences.

Leake, M. A.↗

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Siegrist, K.↗

Design and development of ceramic components

The development of the AGT 100 turbine components in structural ceramic materials is described. Development is defined as the complete and iterative cycle from design, analysis, test, and design refinement culminating in successful demonstration of the design requirements. The components are analyzed by a linear elastic probabilistic approach, which involves finite element (three- and/or two-dimensional) simulation of the component combined with a Weibull characterization of the brittle ceramic material strength distribution to calculate a probability of survival for the component in the operating environment. Component test failure investigation has resulted in design modifications, and an improvement in component reliability has been demonstrated. Engine testing (over 570 h to date) continues to assess design/development of structural ceramic components.

Holtman, R. L.↗

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Gupta, Rajan↗

A distribution function for double-bit upsets

A chord length distribution function for simultaneus path lengths in two parallelepipeds is developed, which is applicable to a unidirectional flux. The distribution function measures the probability for an ion trajectory to have a path length exceeding a specified value in one parallelepiped and to simultationsly have a path length exceeding another specified value in another parallelepiped.

Edmonds, L. D.↗

Surface and airborne evidence for plumes and winds on Triton

Aeolian features on Triton that were imaged during the Voyager Mission have been grouped. The term 'aeolian feature' is broadly defined as features produced by or blown by the wind, including surface and airborne materials. Observations of the latitudinal distributions of the features probably associated with current activity (known plumes, crescent streaks, fixed terminator clouds, and limb haze with overshoot) all occur from latitude -37 deg to latitude -62 deg. Likely indicators of previous activity (dark surface streaks) occur from latitude -5 deg to -70 deg, but are most abundant from -15 deg to -45 deg, generally north of currently active features. Those indicators which give information on wind direction and speed have been measured. Wind direction is a function of altitude. The predominant direction of the surface wind streaks is found to be between 40 deg and 80 deg measured clockwise from north. The average orientation of streaks in the northeast quadrant is 59 deg. Winds at 1- to 3-kilometer altitude are eastward, while those at more than 8 kilometers blow west.

Hansen, C. J.↗