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NASA NTRS2003

Overview of Mount Washington Icing Sensors Project

NASA, the FAA, the Department of Defense, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and NOAA are developing techniques for retrieving cloud microphysical properties from a variety of remote sensing technologies. The intent is to predict aircraft icing conditions ahead of aircraft. The Mount Washington Icing Sensors Project MWISP), conducted in April, 1999 at Mt. Washington, NH, was organized to evaluate technologies for the prediction of icing conditions ahead of aircraft in a natural environment, and to characterize icing cloud and drizzle environments. April was selected for operations because the Summit is typically in cloud, generally has frequent freezing precipitation in spring, and the clouds have high liquid water contents. Remote sensing equipment, consisting of radars, radiometers and a lidar, was placed at the base of the mountain, and probes measuring cloud particles, and a radiometer, were operated from the Summit. NASA s Twin Otter research aircraft also conducted six missions over the site. Operations spanned the entire month of April, which was dominated by wrap-around moisture from a low pressure center stalled off the coast of Labrador providing persistent upslope clouds with relatively high liquid water contents and mixed phase conditions. Preliminary assessments indicate excellent results from the lidar, radar polarimetry, radiosondes and summit and aircraft measurements.

Ryerson, Charles C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Millimeter-scale variations of stable isotope abundances in carbonates from banded iron-formations in the Hamersley Group of Western Australia

Several diamond drill cores from formations within the Hamersley Group of Western Australia have been studied for evidence of short-range variations in the isotopic compositions of the carbonates. For a set of 32 adjacent microbands analyzed in a specimen from the Marra Mamba Iron Formation, carbon isotope compositions of individual microbands ranged from -2.8 to -19.8 per mil compared to PDB and oxygen isotope compositions ranged from 10.2 to 20.8 per mil compared to SMOW. A pattern of alternating abundances was present, with the average isotopic contrasts between adjacent microbands being 3.0 per mil for carbon and 3.1 per mil for oxygen. Similar results were obtained for a suite of 34 microbands (in four groups) from the Bruno's Band unit of the Mount Sylvia Formation. Difficulties were experienced in preparing samples of single microbands from the Dales Gorge Member of the Brockman Iron Formation, but overall isotopic compositions were in good agreement with values reported by previous authors. Chemical analyses showed that isotopically light carbon and oxygen were correlated with increased concentrations of iron. The preservation of these millimeter-scale variations in isotopic abundances is interpreted as inconsistent with a metamorphic origin for the isotopically light carbon in the BIF carbonates. A biological origin is favored for the correlated variations in 13C and Fe, and it is suggested that the 13C-depleted carbonates may derive either from fermentative metabolism or from anaerobic respiration. A model is presented in which these processes occur near the sediment-water interface and are coupled with an initial oxidative precipitation of the iron.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2010

Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth's Temperature

Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth s atmosphere. This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.

Lacis, Andrew A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Changes in the Structure and Propagation of the MJO with Increasing CO2

Changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with increasing CO2 concentrations are examined using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model (GCM). Four simulations performed with fixed CO2 concentrations of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 times pre-industrial levels using the GCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean model are analyzed in terms of the basic state, rainfall and moisture variability, and the structure and propagation of the MJO.The GCM simulates basic state changes associated with increasing CO2 that are consistent with results from earlier studies: column water vapor increases at approximately 7.1% K(exp -1), precipitation also increases but at a lower rate (approximately 3% K(exp -1)), and column relative humidity shows little change. Moisture and rainfall variability intensify with warming. Total moisture and rainfall variability increases at a rate that is similar to that of the mean state change. The intensification is faster in the MJO-related anomalies than in the total anomalies, though the ratio of the MJO band variability to its westward counterpart increases at a much slower rate. On the basis of linear regression analysis and space-time spectral analysis, it is found that the MJO exhibits faster eastward propagation, faster westward energy dispersion, a larger zonal scale and deeper vertical structure in warmer climates.

Adames, Angel F.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

Eunsang Cho↗

NASA NTRS2022

Shoshone River Water Resources: Assessing Sediment Inputs into the Shoshone River in Wyoming to Determine Areas for Protection and Restoration Practices

In 2016, a routine repair operation at the Willwood Dam released tons of built-up sediment into the Shoshone River, polluting the river and negatively impacting the ecosystem. This release greatly affected the communities that rely on the river for farming, recreation, and tourism. In partnership with the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WYDEQ), Shoshone River Partners, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Wyoming–Montana Water Science Center, this project utilized satellite imagery and precipitation data to examine turbidity patterns in the Shoshone River between the Buffalo Bill Dam and the Willwood Dam. We used PlanetScope satellite images to assess changes in surface reflectance of the river in response to precipitation events and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Spectral Retrieval (IMERG) precipitation data to estimate the lag time between rainfall events and increased turbidity. The National Land Cover Dataset (2019) was used to identify the main land cover types within each sub-basin. The end products included a turbidity analysis, land cover analysis, and precipitation analysis that provided the partners with a better understanding of sediment dynamics in the river. The results demonstrated the feasibility of using PlanetScope data to examine turbidity spatially along small rivers. Sediment plumes from tributaries were visually identified for multiple high turbidity events, and we calibrated an equation that translated reflectance to turbidity, accurately representing plume extent. Inconsistent spectral quality of PlanetScope data, however, limited our ability to assess the relative sediment contribution of the tributaries.

tributaries↗

NASA NTRS2024

Central California Disasters: Incorporating Satellite-Derived Precipitation and Soil Moisture Products into Flood Preparedness and Emergency Management in California

Atmospheric rivers are a major contributor to extreme precipitation events and flooding in California. This study assessed the feasibility of using Earth observation data to monitor precipitation, soil moisture, and flooding from atmospheric rivers in the Salinas River Watershed in central California during the winter of 2022-2023. The team analyzed satellite derived precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive radiometer, and synthetic aperture radar imagery from Sentinel-1 to detect flood inundation. Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation estimates were found to underestimate rainfall by 33% to 52% compared to rain gauge data. The team found the Soil Moisture Active Passive dataset to be a valuable flooding indicator that they could visualize through various graphical representations, although its accuracy still needs verification with in situ flood maps. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery provided mapping of flood inundation extent along the Salinas River and surrounding areas and the Blue Spot model appears to be a good predictor of pluvial flood zones. The findings suggest Earth observations can enhance precipitation and flooding monitoring by the California Department of Water Resources, though further verification is needed. Integration of these datasets with vulnerability indices highlighted communities at highest risk during the 2022-2023 flooding events.

Abhinav Banthiya↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spectral Study of Water Tracks as an Analog for Recurring Slope Lineae

Liquid water is a key requirement for life on Earth, and serves as an important constraint on present day habitability on Mars. Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) are a unique phenomenon on Mars that may be formed by brine seeps. Their morphological, seasonal and temporal characteristics support this hypothesis; however, spectral evidence has been lacking. Ojha et al., 2013 recently analyzed CRISM images from all confirmed RSL in the southern mid-latitudes and equatorial regions and found no spectro-scopic evidence for water. Instead, enhanced abun-dances or distinct grain sizes of both ferric and ferrous minerals are observed at most sites. The strength of these spectral signatures changes as a function of sea-son, possibly indicating removal of a fine-grained sur-face component during RSL flow, precipitation of fer-ric oxides, and/or wetting of the substrate. Water tracks (WT) have been suggested as a terrestrial analog for RSL by Levy et al., 2011. WT are defined as dark surface features that extend downslope in a linear or branching fashion, usually oriented along the steepest local gradient, in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. They can be 1-3 m in width and can have lengths up to 2 km. They share many morphological and seasonal characteristics with RSL including active growth during summer seasons and fading during winter. Snowmelt, ground ice melt and deliquescence by hygroscopic salts have been suggested as possible formation mechanisms for water tracks. No spectral work to date has been reported for water tracks.

volumet-ric water content (VWC)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models

Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases

Abstract Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reveal of Uranium Bioremediation Mechanisms by Bacillus Species through Proteomics Studies

Radionuclides, such as Uranium (U) and heavy metals continue to pose threats to the ecosystem health and processes at the Department of Energy (DOE) managed, Savannah River Site (SRS), located along the Savannah River near Aiken, SC. Such co-contaminated environments are difficult to remediate using conventional excavation and disposal or pump-and-treat approaches. Globally, more than 109 tons of uranium contaminated areas pose a long term threat to human and ecological health. Even with presented low concentrations in the brain, central nervous effects are still observed. Uranium and depleted uranium (DU) have long term effects on the kidneys. Some small general health effects include severe headaches and breathing problems. Uranus ions are toxic to living cells because they inhibit metabolism of carbohydrates by blocking ATP binding sites. Bioremediation by microorganisms represents an alternative solution, which is advantageous because of the possibility of biosorbent regeneration, cost-effectiveness, increased metal removal and easy recovery of some valuable metals. Bacillus sp. bacterium was previously used in the bioremediation of heavy metals in coal mine run off waters of SRS. However, its ability to bioremediate uranium was unknown so far. Hence, in the present study, uranium bioremediation by Bacillus sp. bacterium was investigated. The mechanism of bioremediation was also revealed through proteomics studies. Heavy metals contamination poses a serious threat to water, soil and human health. Soil and water are contaminated due to excessive exploitation of uranium mines for generation of nuclear energy and weaponry. It is not degradable easily and persist in soil and water for a long period of time due to its long half- life. Savannah river site (SRS) is one of the uranium contaminated sites. The physical or chemical remediation techniques are costly and complex. Microbial system approaches with competent bacteria has received increased attention due to its adaptability in various environmental matrices and cost effectiveness. However, even though there are multiple suggested pathways (F1), the specific mechanisms that drive this behavior are still unclear, especially with popular microorganisms such as Bacillus species. In a previous research (Ibeanusi et al, 2003) Bacillus sp. was shown to detoxify and precipitate a variety of heavy metals in coal pile runoff waters of SRS site. Additionally, genomic analysis demonstrated that this microorganism posses multiple attributes for chemical transport regulation and metabolic pathways. U remediation occurs during the first 20 hours of exposure. During this time period, Bacillus sp. may work primarily under two mechanisms - sorption and accumulation. These two mechanisms simultaneously work to protect the microorganism from high concentrations. Figure 10 demonstrates that certain proteins are up regulated and down regulated under extreme stressful conditions. Membrane fraction proteins were up regulated. Cytosolic fraction proteins were down regulated. This protein information coincides with the adsorption behavior. Bacillus sp. is a good candidate for U remediation at various concentrations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2008

Irrigation Requirement Estimation using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling; A Case Study for Oran, Algeria

Human demand for food influences the water cycle through diversion and extraction of fresh water needed to support agriculture. Future population growth and economic development alone will substantially increase water demand and much of it for agricultural uses. For many semi-arid lands, socio-economic shifts are likely to exacerbate changes in climate as a driver of future water supply and demand. For these areas in particular, where the balance between water supply and demand is fragile, variations in regional climate can have potentially predictable effect on agricultural production. Satellite data and biophysically-based models provide a powerful method to quantify the interactions between local climate, plant growth and water resource requirements. In irrigated agricultural lands, satellite observations indicate high vegetation density while the precipitation amount indicates otherwise. This inconsistency between the observed precipitation and the observed canopy leaf density triggers the possibility that the observed high leaf density is due to an alternate source of water, irrigation. We explore an inverse process approach using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), climatological data, and the NASA's Simple Biosphere model, SiB2, to quantitatively assess water demand in a semi-arid agricultural land by constraining the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium (balance between vegetation and prevailing local climate) and nonequilibrium (water added through irrigation) conditions. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. We added water using two distribution methods: The first method adds water on top of the canopy and is a proxy for the traditional spray irrigation. The second method allows water to be applied directly into the soil layer and serves as proxy for drip irrigation. Our approach indicates that over the study site, for the month of July, spray irrigation resulted in an irrigation amount of about 1.4 mm per occurrence with an average frequency of occurrence of 24.6 hours. The simulated total monthly irrigation for July was 34.85 mm. In contrast, the drip irrigation resulted in less frequent irrigation events with an average water requirement about 57% less than that simulated during the spray irrigation case. The efficiency of the drip irrigation method rests on its reduction of the canopy interception loss compared to the spray irrigation method. When compared to a country-wide average estimate of irrigation water use, our numbers are quite low. We would have to revise the reported country level estimates downward to 17% or less

Bounoua, L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Koster, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Interplay Between Transpiration and Runoff Formulations in Land Surface Schemes Used with Atmospheric Models

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) has shown that different land surface models (LSMS) driven by the same meteorological forcing can produce markedly different surface energy and water budgets, even when certain critical aspects of the LSMs (vegetation cover, albedo, turbulent drag coefficient, and snow cover) are carefully controlled. To help explain these differences, the authors devised a monthly water balance model that successfully reproduces the annual and seasonal water balances of the different PILPS schemes. Analysis of this model leads to the identification of two quantities that characterize an LSM's formulation of soil water balance dynamics: (1) the efficiency of the soil's evaporation sink integrated over the active soil moisture range, and (2) the fraction of this range over which runoff is generated. Regardless of the LSM's complexity, the combination of these two derived parameters with rates of interception loss, potential evaporation, and precipitation provides a reasonable estimate for the LSM's simulated annual water balance. The two derived parameters shed light on how evaporation and runoff formulations interact in an LSM, and the analysis as a whole underscores the need for compatibility in these formulations.

Koster, Rindal D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP)

The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Cline, D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2011

GPM Avionics Module Heat Pipes Design and Performance Test Results

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international network of satellites that provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow. The GPM core satellite carries an advanced radar / radiometer system to measure precipitation from space and serve as a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellites. Through improved measurements of precipitation globally, the GPM mission will help to advance our understanding of Earth's water and energy cycle, improve forecasting of extreme events that cause natural hazards and disasters, and extend current capabilities in using accurate and timely information of precipitation to directly benefit society. The avionics module on the core satellite contains a number of electronics boxes which are cooled by a network of aluminum/ammonia heat pipes and a honeycomb radiator which contains thirteen embedded aluminum/ammonia heat pipes. All heat pipes were individually tested by the vendor (Advanced Cooling Technologies, Inc.) prior to delivery. Following delivery to NASA, the flight avionics radiator and the flight spare transport heat pipes were mounted to flight-like test structure and a system level thermal vacuum test was performed. This test, which used simulators in place of all electronics boxes, was done to verify the operation of the thermal control system as a whole. This presentation will discuss the design of the avionics module heat pipes, and then discuss performance tests results for the individual heat pipes prior to delivery and for the system level thermal vacuum test. All heat pipes met their performance requirements. However, it was found that the power was too low in some instances to start all of the smaller radiator spreader heat pipes when they were tested in a reflux configuration (which is the nominal test configuration). Although this lowered the efficiency of the radiator somewhat, it did not impact the operating temperatures of the electronics boxes.

Ottenstein, Laura↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

Abstract Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗