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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of a 12 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed Rise

A three-dimensional (3D) two fluid model (TFM) model of the 12 MW circulating fluidized bed (CFB) riser at Chalmers University was developed using the open-source Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) Software Suite. The hydrodynamic behavior of the riser was validated by comparing axial pressure profiles from experimental measurements with the results from the simulations. Under some of the operating conditions where there was no external circulation of solids, the pressure profiles from the simulation matched well with the experimental measurements. For the cases where there was external circulation of solids, the pressure profiles with the monodisperse solid phase modeling underpredicted the solids concentration in the freeboard region. With the inclusion of polydispersity in the model, the predicted pressure profiles agreed well with the experimental measurements. A two-dimensional (2D) model of the riser was used to perform simulations of coal combustion. The predicted flue gas outlet compositions of oxygen and carbon dioxide compared reasonably to experiments. The experiments also reported some concentration of carbon monoxide which was overpredicted in the simulations. Additional experimental data such as axial oxygen concentration profile and pressure profiles were also compared with the experiment. It was observed that the oxygen concentration in the bottom bed from the simulations was higher than in the experiments, which suggested that most of the oxidation reactions occurred in the bottom bed. The concentration of volatiles and char in the simulations was lower in the bottom bed than in the experiments, which suggest that there is not sufficient penetration of the solid phase species into the bed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign 2019 Accomplishments

The mission of the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is to perform or support research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities to identify and mature innovative fuels and cladding materials and associated technologies with the potential to improve the performance and safety of current and future reactors; increase the efficient utilization of nuclear energy resources; contribute to enhancing proliferation resistance of the nuclear fuel cycle; and address challenges related to waste management and ultimate disposal. AFC pursues its mission objectives using a goal-oriented, science-based approach that seeks to establish a fundamental understanding of fuel and cladding behaviors under conditions that arise during fabrication, normal steady-state irradiation, off-normal transient scenarios, and storage/disposal. This approach includes advancing the theoretical understanding of fuel behavior, conducting fundamental and integral experiments, and supporting the mechanistic, multi-scale modeling of nuclear fuels to inform and guide fuel development projects, advance the technological readiness of promising fuel candidates, and ultimately support fuel qualification and licensing initiatives. In the area of advanced tools for the modeling and simulation of nuclear fuels, the AFC works in close partnership with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, participating with NEAMS in developing mechanistic fuel behavior models and providing experimental data to inform and validate its most advanced tools. Specifically, AFC objectives in thecoming five year horizon include: 1. support the industry-led development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) technologies with improved reliability and performance under normal operations and enhanced tolerance during hypothetical accident scenarios, with implementation of lead test rods/assemblies of one or more ATF concepts in commercial reactor(s) by or before 2022 and batch reloads of near-term concept(s) in the 2023-2026 timeframe; 2. lead research and development on innovative fuel and cladding technologies for applications to future advanced reactors, especially fast-spectrum reactors, including reactors that utilize both once-through and recycle scenarios; 3. continue the development and demonstration of a multi-scale,science-based approach to fuel development and testing, andcontribute to the establishment of a state-of-the-art R&D infrastructure necessary to accelerate the development of new fuel concepts; and collaborate with NEAMS on the development and validation of multi-scale, multi-physics, and increasingly predictive fuel performance models and codes. 4. collaborate with NEAMS on the development and validation of multi-scale, multi-physics, and increasingly predictive fuel performance models and codes.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Overview of Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 in the Permian Delaware Basin (HFTS-2)

Here, the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) is a large collaborative field-based R&D program in the Permian Delaware Basin, funded by the US Department of Energy through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and the E&P industry, with support from academia. The projects' main objective is to improve the understating of the hydraulic fracturing process through utilization of advanced diagnostics and collection of through-fracture cores to provide undisputable evidence and attributes of the created hydraulic fractures. At the HFTS-2, in excess of $30 million was used to perform hydraulic fracturing research focusing on the Wolfcamp formation at a field site hosted and operated by Occidental. In addition to the research data collected by the project, Occidental provided a significant amount of background data for about a dozen existing wells in the test area as well as access to previously collected core. Additional technical and laboratory support was provided by the program members. Building on learnings and unanswered questions from HFTS-1 in the Permian Midland basin, the HFTS-2 used eight new producing wells and two existing (parent) wells to perform hydraulic fracturing research. Multiple science wells were drilled to sample and characterize the subsurface, including the collection of 540 feet of core in a vertical pilot hole and 948 feet of high-angle through-fracture core. The project installed permanent fiber optic cables in 3 wells to monitor near wellbore signals during fracturing and to collect cross-well strain measurements. Additional advanced diagnostics included a significant formation evaluation program on the vertical whole core, multi array moment tensor inversion capable microseismic survey, multi-well time-lapse geochemistry analysis, analysis of proppant distribution in producing child and slant core well, and others. We will provide an overview of the HFTS-2 project, including list of the consortium members, details of the test site, experiments performed, and technologies tested.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Controls on the frequency content of near-source infrasound at open-vent volcanoes: a case study from Volcán Villarrica, Chile

Infrasound signals from open-vent volcanoes can contain information related to that volcano’s eruption dynamics and future activity. Studying a specific volcano’s acoustic signature during periods of relative quiescence is thus important for understanding potential warning signs of impending eruptions. Volcán Villarrica, located in southern Chile, has a long-lived active lava lake that produces continuous infrasound with spectral peaks centered around 1 Hz that vary by + / - ~ 0.2 Hz over day-to-week-long time scales. The infrasound frequency content has been shown to illuminate key volcanic properties such as eruption style and crater shape. Leading up to Villarrica’s most recent paroxysm in 2015, for instance, infrasound spectral changes coincided with a rise in Villarrica’s lava lake level. Quantifying and understanding the regular fluctuation in recorded infrasonic frequencies from Villarrica and other open-vent volcanoes is thus imperative during periods of relative calm. Our experiment entailed a week-long period of crater rim infrasound observations associated with stable, open-vent activity and revealed two independent source processes: spatter bursting events (relatively broadband infrasound) and lava lake-induced tremor (sustained signals peaked at 1 Hz). A comparison of these acoustic signals with results from 3-D finite-difference time-domain wave propagation models shows that while sound speed variability can influence Villarrica’s spectrum, it cannot explain the full extent of the observed frequency excursions. We conclude that source spectrum variability is primarily responsible for the frequency excursions. In conclusion, our work highlights the utility of data collected from a dense distribution of twenty infrasound sensors operating at the summit coupled with numerical modeling of sound radiation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of buffer-IPyC separation in TRISO fuel particles

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, and due to the neutron irradiation in the reactor core, damage of the nuclear fuel coating layers occurs. The mechanism of damage formation in the TRISO fuel is explored by the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program, in which the debonding process between coating layers was also investigated. The purpose of this paper is to report simulation results for two models. Firstly, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted. Secondly, a debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The simulations were performed with the Bison code. The inputs of the simulated models are based on data from the AGR-1 experiment. Further, the research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. The simulations match results obtained by the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the behavior of the gap between buffer and IPyC layers in TRISO fuel. Based on the irradiation experiments, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. In addition, the fuel sphericity does not influence the Weibull failure probability. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Characterization of wind conditions and impact on wind loading at an operational parabolic trough concentrating solar power plant using LiDAR observations

Wind loading is a major factor influencing the structural design costs of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) collector systems, including heliostats and parabolic troughs. Traditionally, these designs have been based on wind-tunnel data, which often fail to accurately represent the dynamic effects experienced at full scale. This study presents a first-of-its-kind experimental characterization of wind conditions within an operational parabolic-trough CSP power plant focusing specifically on using lidar observations. The lidar observations give a unique opportunity to provide insights into wind flow conditions deep within the trough arrays. Our results suggest that (1) after being blocked by the first few rows, the wind speed above the troughs recovers to 73% of its inflow magnitude as it flows further over the trough field due to enhanced turbulent mixing and (2) due to the wind speed recovery, troughs in the interior field will likely experience higher shear-induced turning moments compared those at the front. The conclusions from this work stress the importance of better understanding the wind patterns and interior wind loads when designing solar collectors and highlights the need for more interior load measurements in the future field campaigns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Octane Requirements of Lean Mixed-Mode Combustion in a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition Engine

Here, this study investigates the octane requirements of a hybrid flame propagation and controlled autoignition mode referred to as mixed-mode combustion (MMC), which allows for strong control over combustion parameters via a spark-initiated deflagration phase. Due to the throughput limitations associated with both experiments and 3-D computational fluid dynamics calculations, a hybrid 0-D and 1-D modeling methodology was developed, supported by experimental validation data. This modeling approach relied on 1-D, two-zone engine simulations to predict bulk in-cylinder thermodynamic conditions over a range of engine speeds, compression ratios, intake pressures, trapped residual levels, fueling rates, and spark timings. Those predictions were then transferred to a 0-D chemical kinetic model, which was used to evaluate the autoignition behavior of fuels when subjected to temperature–pressure trajectories of interest. Finally, the predicted autoignition phasings were screened relative to the progress of the modeled deflagration-based combustion in order to determine if an operating condition was feasible or infeasible due to knock or stability limits. The combined modeling and experimental results reveal that MMC has an octane requirement similar to modern stoichiometric spark-ignition engines in that fuels with high research octane number (RON) and high octane sensitivity (S) enable higher loads. Experimental trends with varying RON and S were well predicted by the model for 1000 and 1400 rpm, confirming its utility in identifying the compatibility of a fuel’s autoignition behavior with an engine configuration and operating strategy. However, the model was not effective in predicting (nor designed to predict) operability limits due to cycle-to-cycle variations, which experimentally inhibited operation of some fuels at 2000 rpm. Putting the operable limits and efficiency from MMC in the context of a state-of-the-art engine, the MMC showed superior efficiencies over the range investigated, demonstrating the potential to further improve fuel economy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Iterative ML and Experiments for Emerging VOCs

SAND2026-17074O Iterative ML and Experiments for Emerging VOCs is a tool that analyzes and predicts the behaviors of SARS-CoV-2 variants. It processes experimental data on ACE2 (the receptor for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that allows it to infect the cell) and antibody binding using machine learning models, including neural networks, to forecast ACE2 interactions and variant expression. The tool employs transfer learning and global epistasis modeling, integrating public datasets with proprietary data to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, it fits concentration-response curves to determine dissociation constants and generates visualizations to support research findings, thereby aiding in the identification of new antibodies for emerging variants of concern. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Sheffield, Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), ↗

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-Throughput Custom Monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ System

In this project we are studying the application of programmable network hardware to provide a custom monitoring capability for the Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) system. The goal of the Mu2e experiment is to search for a charged-lepton flavor violating processes where a negative muon converts into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus. This experiment is intended to improve by four orders of magnitude the search sensitivity reached so far. We have a working prototype of a system that provides high-throughput, custom monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ system. The custom Mu2e network packet header format is parsed as it crosses the network switch. Parsing extracts bits that convey information about error states at read-out controllers (ROCs). This information is periodically relayed to the switch controller, which in turn alerts experiment operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

LiDAR Point Cloud Data from the 2018 NGEE Arctic UAS Campaign at the Kougarok 64 Field Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Airborne remote sensing data collected from Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) hexacopter platform operated by NGEE Arctic scientists from the EES-14 group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. These data were collected in July 2018 at a field site near mile marker 64 along the Kougarok road (Nome-Taylor Highway) between Nome, Alaska and Taylor, Alaska. A DJI Matrice 600 Pro Airframe and Routescene UAV LiDARSystem was used to collect LiDAR data. The LiDAR data has undergone basic post-processing using Routescene LidarViewer Pro software to create point cloud data (.laz files). This data package contains point clouds (.laz), processing metadata files (json.lvp), and post-processed kinematic files (.csv). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, weather conditions, raw LiDAR data, and RGB imagery can be found in NGA298.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Innovations in Sustainable Passive Wastewater Treatment - 20236

Sustainable water treatment systems, engineered to mimic natural processes and utilize natural materials, yield economic and environmental benefits through reductions in long term operational inputs, including: power, chemicals, and labor. Golder is an industry leader in the development and implementation of sustainable technologies at operating and closed mines. We continue to innovate these technologies and customize solutions to meet client needs by applying past experience and focused research. Sustainable (or passive) water treatment systems include ponds, wetlands, flow-through natural media beds, and limestone drains. These systems can blend in with a natural environment, are highly cost-effective for long-term water treatment, and can outcompete traditional active treatment technologies. Application of sustainable technologies relative to active technologies can be influenced by the influent water matrix, effluent limitations, flow rate of water requiring treatment, and available land area. In this presentation, four Golder-developed systems are reviewed as case studies, demonstrating our continued progressive approach to advancing sustainable water treatment technologies to meet industry needs. These case studies focus on design innovations and operational performance from data collected from the operational systems. Resources (power, chemicals, labor) required for the operation of each case study are compared with those that would be required for operation of their active treatment technology alternatives. - Case Study 1 presents an anaerobic biochemical reactor (BCR), a technology typically implemented for metals treatment and acid neutralization, for the treatment of sulfate to low concentrations (<250 mg/L). Active treatment via reverse osmosis (RO) membrane filtration is typically required for treatment of sulfate to similar concentrations, this innovation provides potential for sustainable treatment to replace the need for energy, chemical, labor, and waste (brine) intensive RO treatment for specific applications. Magnetite waste rock materials from the site were upcycled for use in this system to provide sequestration of the sulfide generated in the BCR. - Case Study 2 examines another novel application of the conventional BCR, modified for the removal of radionuclides and metals (uranium, radium, and selenium) at a closed uranium mine. - Case Study 3 presents implementation of sustainable treatment for mine drain water from a historic mine site, now a state park with around 100,000 visitors per year. The system includes a pond, wetland, and manganese removal bed surrounded by public trails designed to maintain the character of the park. The system treats for arsenic, iron, and manganese at relatively high flows (up to 1,200 gpm), with large seasonal fluctuations in flow and quality. - Case Study 4 is a unique project for which Golder is currently designing a sustainable treatment system, with no energy input, to treat nitrate in mine water post-closure at a site near the arctic circle. In this unprecedented application, climate, management of freshet, and space availability presented substantial technical challenges. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

High-Throughput Custom Monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ System

In this project we are studying the application of programmable network hardware to provide a custom monitoring capability for the Mu2e Trigger and Data Acquisition System (TDAQ) system. The goal of the Mu2e experiment is to search for a charged-lepton flavor violating processes where a negative muon converts into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus. This experiment is intended to improve by four orders of magnitude the search sensitivity reached so far. We have a working prototype of a system that provides high-throughput, custom monitoring for the Mu2e TDAQ system. The custom Mu2e network packet header format is parsed as it crosses the network switch. Parsing extracts bits that convey information about error states at read-out controllers (ROCs). This information is periodically relayed to the switch controller, which in turn alerts experiment operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

ANS Winter 2024 Summary: Optimizing the ATF-2Ramp Power Profile

When the Halden Boiling Water Reactor closed down in 2018, a need to restore the capability for in-reactor power ramp testing arose. Such testing is valuable for studying pellet-clad interaction phenomena in nuclear fuels. The data from these studies is of great interest to a number of research programs, including the accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In 2022, Woolstenhulme et al. proposed several power ramp testing ideas using facilities at INL, including irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (better known as TREAT) and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) [1]. Worrall et al. [2] and Labossiere-Hickman et al. [3] subsequently performed feasibility studies for the ATR testing options in 2023. This summary further investigates the three-pin trefoil design (Fig. 1) for the proposed ATF-2Ramp Experiment discussed in Labossiere-Hickman et al. [3]. ATF-2Ramp is designed to operate in the center flux trap (CFT) of the ATR during a powered axial locator mechanism (PALM) cycle: a short, variable-powered cycle with an asymmetric power distribution. Previously, it was shown that tailoring the thickness of the hafnium (Hf) neutron shields (“mini-shrouds”) surrounding each pin offered a degree of control sufficient to achieve the programmatic linear heat generation rate (LHGR) targets for ATF-2Ramp during the high-power period of a PALM cycle. New work involves shortening the experiment test train for consistency with the fuel pins in ATF-2D [4] and then shaping the axial power profile of the three test pins.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗