SparTen: Leveraging Kokkos for On-node Parallelism in a Second-Order Method for Fitting Canonical Polyadic Tensor Models to Poisson Data.
Abstract not provided.
Teranishi, Keita↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Model fitting”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A Numerical Method for Calculating Stellar Occultation Light Curves from an Arbitrary Atmospheric Model
We present a method for speeding up numerical calculations of a light curve for a stellar occultation by a planetary atmosphere with an arbitrary atmospheric model that has spherical symmetry. This improved speed makes least-squares fitting for model parameters practical. Our method takes as input several sets of values for the first two radial derivatives of the refractivity at different values of model parameters, and interpolates to obtain the light curve at intermediate values of one or more model parameters. It was developed for small occulting bodies such as Pluto and Triton, but is applicable to planets of all sizes. We also present the results of a series of tests showing that our method calculates light curves that are correct to an accuracy of 10(exp -4) of the unocculted stellar flux. The test benchmarks are (i) an atmosphere with a l/r dependence of temperature, which yields an analytic solution for the light curve, (ii) an atmosphere that produces an exponential refraction angle, and (iii) a small-planet isothermal model. With our method, least-squares fits to noiseless data also converge to values of parameters with fractional errors of no more than 10(exp -4), with the largest errors occurring in small planets. These errors are well below the precision of the best stellar occultation data available. Fits to noisy data had formal errors consistent with the level of synthetic noise added to the light curve. We conclude: (i) one should interpolate refractivity derivatives and then form light curves from the interpolated values, rather than interpolating the light curves themselves; (ii) for the most accuracy, one must specify the atmospheric model for radii many scale heights above half light; and (iii) for atmospheres with smoothly varying refractivity with altitude, light curves can be sampled as coarsely as two points per scale height.
Chamberlain, D. M.↗
UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE
Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Sci—Fri PM: Dosimetry—04: Radiation out-of-field dose in the treatment of pediatric central nervous system malignancies
Children diagnosed with central nervous system (CNS) malignancies often receive radiotherapy, which can cause radiogenic late effects. In order to identify and reduce the risk of these late effects, we must understand the radiation doses that these children receive. Modern treatment planning systems accurately estimate the absorbed dose within the treatment fields but poorly estimate the dose outside them. The purpose of our study was to measure the out-of-field dose for children receiving localized radiotherapy for CNS cancer and apply an analytical model for estimating dose as a function of distance from the field edge. Radiation fields designed for a 12-year-old boy treated in our clinic were applied to an anthropomorphic phantom containing more than 200 thermoluminescent dosimeters. A double-Gaussian function of absorbed dose versus distance from the field edge (i.e., 50% isodose line) was applied, and parameters were allowed to vary and were fit to the model by minimizing the root mean square deviation, RMSD. The fitted model accurately predicted the dose from distances of 4 cm to 50 cm (RMSD = 0.54 cGy/Gy), but the model was not useful in estimating dose for distances less than 4 cm because of wide variation in measured dose, and the double-Gaussian model failed by systematically underestimating the dose beyond 50 cm. In conclusion, the double-Gaussian model may be applicable for points at distances from the field edge between 4 cm and 50 cm, where most children's radiosensitive tissues are located, but for points beyond 50 cm, an improvement should be investigated.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Termolecular ion-molecule reactions in Titan's atmosphere. IV. A search made at up to 1 micron in pure hydrocarbons
The results of a study of ion-molecule reactions occurring in pure methane, acetylene, ethylene, ethane, propyne, propene, propane, and diacetylene at pressures up to 40 microns of pressure are reported. A variety of experimental methods are used: The standard double resonance in an ICR, for determination of the precursor ions and the modulated double resonance ejection in an ICR, for the determination of the daughter ions. The FA-SIFT technique was used for validation and examination of termolecular reactions with rate coefficients that are less than 10(-26) cm(6) s(-1). An extensive database of reaction kinetics already exists for many of these reactions. The main point of this study was the determination of the accuracy of this database and to search for any missing reactions and reaction channels that may have been omitted from earlier investigations. A specific objective of this work was to extend the study to the highest pressures possible to find out if there were any important termolecular reaction channels occurring. A new approach was used here. In the pure hydrocarbon gases the mass spectra were followed as a function of the pressure changes of the gas. An initial guess was first made using the current literature as a source of the reaction kinetics that were expected. A model of the ion abundances was produced from the solution of the partial differential equations in terms of reaction rate coefficients and initial abundances. The experimental data was fitted to the model for all of the pressures by a least squares minimization to the reaction rate coefficients and initial abundances. The reaction rate coefficients obtained from the model were then compared to the literature values. Several new channels and reactions were discovered when the modeled fits were compared to the actual data. This is all explained in the text and the implications of these results are discussed for the Titan atmosphere.
Hydrocarbons, Acyclic/analysis↗
PHAT. XIX. The Ancient Star Formation History of the M31 Disk
We map the star formation history across M31 by fitting stellar evolution models to color–magnitude diagrams of each 83″ × 83″ (0.3 × 1.4 kpc, deprojected) region of the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) survey outside of the innermost 6{sup ′}×12{sup ′} portion. We find that most of the star formation occurred prior to ∼8 Gyr ago, followed by a relatively quiescent period until ∼4 Gyr ago, a subsequent star formation episode about 2 Gyr ago, and a return to relative quiescence. There appears to be little, if any, structure visible for populations with ages older than 2 Gyr, suggesting significant mixing since that epoch. Finally, assuming a Kroupa initial mass function from 0.1 to 100 M {sub ⊙}, we find that the total amount of star formation over the past 14 Gyr in the area over which we have fit models is 5 × 10{sup 10} M {sub ⊙}. Fitting the radial distribution of this star formation and assuming azimuthal symmetry, (1.5 ± 0.2) × 10{sup 11} M {sub ⊙} of stars has formed in the M31 disk as a whole, (9 ± 2) × 10{sup 10} M {sub ⊙} of which has likely survived to the present after accounting for evolutionary effects. This mass is about one-fifth of the total dynamical mass of M31.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Inference on accretion flow dynamics using TCAF solution from the analysis of spectral evolution of H 1743-322 during the 2010 outburst
We study accretion flow dynamics of the Galactic transient black hole candidate (BHC) H 1743-322 during its 2010 outburst by analyzing spectral data using the two-component advective flow (TCAF; Keplerian and sub-Keplerian) solution after its inclusion in XSPEC as a local model. We compare our TCAF solution fitted results with combined disk blackbody (DBB) and power-law (PL) model fitted results and find a similar smooth variation of thermal (Keplerian or DBB) and non-thermal (PL or sub-Keplerian) fluxes/rates in two types of model fits. For a spectral analysis, 2.5-25 keV spectral data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array instrument are used. From the TCAF solution fit, accretion flow parameters, such as Keplerian rate, sub-Keplerian rate, location of centrifugal pressure-supported shock, and strength of the shock, are extracted, providing a deeper understanding of the accretion process and properties of accretion disks around BHC H 1743-322 during its X-ray outburst. Based on the halo to disk accretion rate ratio, shock properties, accretion rates, and the nature of the quasi-periodic oscillations' (if observed) entire outburst is classified into four different spectral states: hard, hard-intermediate, soft-intermediate, and soft. From the time variation of intrinsic flow parameters, it appears that their evolutions in the declining phase do not retrace the path of the rising phase. Since our current model does not include magnetic fields, spectral turnover at energies beyond 500-600 keV cannot be explained.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Using Maximum Circular Velocity in Halo Occupation Distribution Models to Predict Galaxy Clustering
Abstract Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models predict how galaxies occupy halos based on a single property, the virial mass, M vir . To incorporate galaxy assembly bias, we consider alternative halo mass proxies to use in the HOD. A promising replacement is maximum circular velocity, V max , which measures the halo’s potential well, and successfully predicts galaxy clustering in subhalo abundance matching models. We fit galaxy clustering measurements from SDSS DR7 with two modified HODs besides the standard M vir -based model: one where V max is used as the halo property that determines galaxy occupation, and the other adopting an adjustable combination of M vir and V max . Except for the reduced volume M r < − 20 threshold sample fit with V max alone, neither change improves the model performance in predicting the projected two-point correlation function, w p . We conclude that switching the primary variable to V max does not significantly improve the HOD model’s ability to fit galaxy clustering.
Mezini, Lorena↗
Evaluating E. coli genome‐scale metabolic model accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data
Abstract The Escherichia coli genome‐scale metabolic model (GEM) is an exemplar systems biology model for the simulation of cellular metabolism. Experimental validation of model predictions is essential to pinpoint uncertainty and ensure continued development of accurate models. Here, we quantified the accuracy of four subsequent E. coli GEMs using published mutant fitness data across thousands of genes and 25 different carbon sources. This evaluation demonstrated the utility of the area under a precision–recall curve relative to alternative accuracy metrics. An analysis of errors in the latest (iML1515) model identified several vitamins/cofactors that are likely available to mutants despite being absent from the experimental growth medium and highlighted isoenzyme gene‐protein‐reaction mapping as a key source of inaccurate predictions. A machine learning approach further identified metabolic fluxes through hydrogen ion exchange and specific central metabolism branch points as important determinants of model accuracy. This work outlines improved practices for the assessment of GEM accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data and highlights promising areas for future model refinement in E. coli and beyond.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
A revised model of ex-vivo reduction of hexavalent chromium in human and rodent gastric juices
Chronic oral exposure to hexavalent chromium (Cr-VI) in drinking water has been shown to induce tumors in the mouse gastrointestinal (GI) tract and rat oral cavity. The same is not true for trivalent chromium (Cr-III). Thus reduction of Cr-VI to Cr-III in gastric juices is considered a protective mechanism, and it has been suggested that the difference between the rate of reduction among mice, rats, and humans could explain or predict differences in sensitivity to Cr-VI. We evaluated previously published models of gastric reduction and believe that they do not fully describe the data on reduction as a function of Cr-VI concentration, time, and (in humans) pH. The previous models are parsimonious in assuming only a single reducing agent in rodents and describing pH-dependence using a simple function. We present a revised model that assumes three pools of reducing agents in rats and mice with pH-dependence based on known speciation chemistry. While the revised model uses more fitted parameters than the original model, they are adequately identifiable given the available data, and the fit of the revised model to the full range of data is shown to be significantly improved. Hence the revised model should provide better predictions of Cr-VI reduction when integrated into a corresponding PBPK model. - Highlights: • Hexavalent chromium (Cr-VI) reduction in gastric juices is a key detoxifying step. • pH-dependent Cr-VI reduction rates are explained using known chemical speciation. • Reduction in rodents appears to involve multiple pools of electron donors. • Reduction appears to continue after 60 min, although more slowly than initial rates.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Dynamics of water confined in lyotropic liquid crystals: Molecular dynamics simulations of the dynamic structure factor
The properties of water under confinement are of practical and fundamental interest. Here in this work we study the properties of water in the self-assembled lyotropic phases of gemini surfactants with a focus on testing the standard analysis of quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) experiments. In QENS experiments the dynamic structure factor is measured and fit to models to extract the translational diffusion constant, D T , and rotational relaxation time, τ R . We test this procedure by using simulation results for the dynamic structure factor, extracting the dynamic parameters from the fit as is typically done in experiments, and comparing the values to those directly measured in the simulations. We find that the decoupling approximation, where the intermediate scattering function is assumed to be a product of translational and rotational contributions, is quite accurate. The jump-diffusion and isotropic rotation models, however, are not accurate when the degree of confinement is high. In particular, the exponential approximations for the intermediate scattering function fail for highly confined water and the values of D T and τ R can differ from the measured value by as much as a factor of two. Other models have more fit parameters, however, and with the range of energies and wave-vectors accessible to QENS, the typical analysis appears to be the best choice. In the most confined lamellar phase, the dynamics are sufficiently slow that QENS does not access a large enough time scale and neutron spin echo measurements would be a valuable technique in addition to QENS.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Fitting strategies of accretion column models and application to the broadband spectrum of Cen X-3
Due to the complexity of modeling the radiative transfer inside the accretion columns of neutron star binaries, their X-ray spectra are still commonly described with phenomenological models, e.g., a cut off power law. While the behavior of these models is well understood and they allow for a comparison of different sources and studying source behavior, the extent to which the underlying physics can be derived from the model parameters is very limited. During recent years, several physically motivated spectral models have been developed to overcome these limitations. Their application, however, is generally computationally much more expensive and they require a high number of parameters which are difficult to constrain. In particular, Becker & Wolff(2007) presented an analytical solution to the radiative transfer equation inside the accretion column assuming a velocity profile that is linear in the optical depth. An implementation of this model that is both fast and accurate enough to be fitted to observed spectra is available in XSPEC. The main difficulty of this implementation is that some solutions violate energy conservation and therefore have to be rejected by the user. We propose a novel fitting strategy that ensures energy conservation during theχ2-minimization which simplifies the application of the model considerably. We demonstrate this approach as well as a study of possible parameter degeneracies with a comprehensive Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the complete parameter space for a combined NuSTAR and Swift/XRT dataset of Cen X-3.The derived accretion-flow structure features a small column radius of∼63 m and a spectrum dominated by bulk-Comptonization of bremsstrahlung seed photons, in agreement with previous studies.
X-rays: binaries↗
Fitting Strategies of Accretion Column Models and Application to the Broadband Spectrum of Cen X-3
Due to the complexity of modeling the radiative transfer inside the accretion columns of neutron star binaries, their X-ray spectra are still commonly described with phenomenological models, e.g., a cut off power law. While the behavior of these models is well understood and they allow for a comparison of different sources and studying source behavior, the extent to which the underlying physics can be derived from the model parameters is very limited. During recent years, several physically motivated spectral models have been developed to overcome these limitations. Their application, however, is generally computationally much more expensive and they require a high number of parameters which are difficult to constrain. In particular, Becker & Wolff(2007) presented an analytical solution to the radiative transfer equation inside the accretion column assuming a velocity profile that is linear in the optical depth. An implementation of this model that is both fast and accurate enough to be fitted to observed spectra is available in XSPEC. The main difficulty of this implementation is that some solutions violate energy conservation and therefore have to be rejected by the user. We propose a novel fitting strategy that ensures energy conservation during theχ2-minimization which simplifies the application of the model considerably. We demonstrate this approach as well as a study of possible parameter degeneracies with a comprehensive Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the complete parameter space for a combined NuSTAR and Swift/XRT data-set of Cen X-3.The derived accretion-flow structure features a small column radius of∼63 m and a spectrum dominated by bulk-Comptonization of bremsstrahlung seed photons, in agreement with previous studies
Philipp Thalhammer↗
An Isolated Mass-gap Black Hole or Neutron Star Detected with Astrometric Microlensing
We present the analysis of five black hole candidates identified from gravitational microlensing surveys. Hubble Space Telescope astrometric data and densely sampled light curves from ground-based microlensing surveys are fit with a single-source, single-lens microlensing model in order to measure the mass and luminosity of each lens and determine if it is a black hole. One of the five targets (OGLE-2011-BLG-0462/MOA-2011-BLG-191 or OB110462 for short) shows a significant >1 mas coherent astrometric shift, little to no lens flux, and has an inferred lens mass of 1.6–4.4 M ⨀ . This makes OB110462 the first definitive discovery of a compact object through astrometric microlensing and it is most likely either a neutron star or a low-mass black hole. This compact-object lens is relatively nearby (0.70–1.92 kpc) and has a slow transverse motion of <30 kms -1 . OB110462 shows significant tension between models well fit to photometry versus astrometry, making it currently difficult to distinguish between a neutron star and a black hole. Additional observations and modeling with more complex system geometries, such as binary sources, are needed to resolve the puzzling nature of this object. For the remaining four candidates, the lens masses are <2M ⨀ , and they are unlikely to be black holes; two of the four are likely white dwarfs or neutron stars. We compare the full sample of five candidates to theoretical expectations on the number of black holes in the Milky Way (∼10 8 ) and find reasonable agreement given the small sample size.
Astrophysical black holes↗
An exponential–gamma mixture model for extreme Santa Ana winds
We analyze the behavior of extreme winds occurring in Southern California during the Santa Ana wind season using a latent mixture model. This mixture representation is formulated as a hierarchical Bayesian model and fit using Markov chain Monte Carlo. The two‐stage model results in generalized Pareto margins for exceedances and generates temporal dependence through a latent Markov process. This construction induces asymptotic independence in the response, while allowing for dependence at extreme, but subasymptotic, levels. We compare this model with a frequentist analogue where inference is performed via maximum pairwise likelihood. We use interval censoring to account for data quantization and estimate the extremal index and probabilities of multiday occurrences of extreme Santa Ana winds over a range of high thresholds.
Bopp, Gregory P.↗
On polymorphism for discrete evolutionary dynamics driven either by selection or segregation distortion
We revisit some problems arising in the context of multiallelic discrete-time and deterministic evolutionary dynamics driven first by fitness differences and then by segregation distortion. In the model with fitness, we describe classes of fitness matrices exhibiting polymorphism. In the segregation case, still in search for conditions of polymorphism, we focus on a class of skew-symmetric matrices with a unique strictly positive kernel vector. Our main results reduce the study of these cases to the analysis of stochastic matrices.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development
While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
TIDAL STREAM MORPHOLOGY AS AN INDICATOR OF DARK MATTER HALO GEOMETRY: THE CASE OF PALOMAR 5
This paper presents an example where the morphology of a single stellar stream can be used to rule out a specific galactic potential form without the need for velocity information. We investigate the globular cluster Palomar 5 (Pal 5), which is tidally disrupting into a cold, thin stream mapped over 22 deg on the sky with a typical width of 0.7 deg. We generate models of this stream by fixing Pal 5's present-day position, distance, and radial velocity via observations, while allowing its proper motion to vary. In a spherical dark matter halo we easily find models that fit the observed morphology. However, no plausible Pal 5 model could be found in the triaxial potential of Law and Majewski, which has been proposed to explain the properties of the Sagittarius stream. In this case, the long, thin, and curved morphology of the Pal 5 stream alone can be used to rule out such a potential configuration. Pal 5-like streams in this potential are either too straight, missing the curvature of the observations, or show an unusual morphology which we dub stream-fanning: a signature sensitive to the triaxiality of a potential. We conclude that the mere existence of other thin tidal streams must provide broad constraints on the orientation and shape of the dark matter halo they inhabit.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗