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DOE OSTI2025

Scattering neutrinos, spin models, and permutations

We consider a class of Heisenberg all-to-all coupled spin models inspired by neutrino interactions in a supernova with N degrees of freedom. These models are characterized by a coupling matrix that is relatively simple in the sense that there are only a few, relative to N , nontrivial eigenvalues, in distinction to the classic Heisenberg spin-glass models, leading to distinct behavior in both the high-temperature and low-temperature regimes. When the momenta of the neutrinos are uniform and random in directions, we can calculate the large- N partition function for the quantum Heisenberg model. In particular, the high-temperature partition function predicts a non-Gaussian density of states, providing interesting counterexamples showing the limits of general theorems on the density of states for quantum spin models. We can repeat the same argument for classical Heisenberg models, also known as rotor models, and we find the high-temperature expansion is completely controlled by the eigenvalues of the coupling matrix, and again predicts non-Gaussian behavior for the density of states as long as the number of eigenvalues does not scale linearly with N . Indeed, we derive the amusing fact that these partition functions are essentially the generating function for counting permutations in the high-temperature regime. Finally, for the case relevant to neutrinos in a supernova, we identify the low-temperature phase as a unique state with the direction of the momenta of the neutrino dictating its coherent state in flavor-space, a state we dub the “flavor-momentum-locked” state. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Numerical Model for High-Temperature Shape Memory Alloys

A thermomechanical hysteresis model for a high-temperature shape memory alloy (HTSMA) actuator material is presented. The model is capable of predicting strain output of a tensile-loaded HTSMA when excited by arbitrary temperature-stress inputs for the purpose of actuator and controls design. Common quasi-static generalized Preisach hysteresis models available in the literature require large sets of experimental data for model identification at a particular operating point, and substantially more data for multiple operating points. The novel algorithm introduced here proposes an alternate approach to Preisach methods that is better suited for research-stage alloys, such as recently-developed HTSMAs, for which a complete database is not yet available. A detailed description of the minor loop hysteresis model is presented in this paper, as well as a methodology for determination of model parameters. The model is then qualitatively evaluated with respect to well-established Preisach properties and against a set of low-temperature cycled loading data using a modified form of the one-dimensional Brinson constitutive equation. The computationally efficient algorithm demonstrates adherence to Preisach properties and excellent agreement to the validation data set.

DeCastro, Jonathan A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

$Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$ form factors from lattice QCD and standard-model predictions for $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − and $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝛾 decays

We present the first lattice QCD determination of the $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$ vector, axial-vector, and tensor form factors, which are relevant for the theory of rare decays including $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢ℓ + ⁢ℓ − and $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝛾. The calculation is performed with 2+1 flavors of domain-wall fermions at three different lattice spacings and pion masses in the range from approximately 430 to 230 MeV. The bottom quark is implemented using an anisotropic clover action. Three-point functions with a wide range of source-sink separations and model averaging are used to extract the ground-state contributions. We fit the dependence of the form factors on the momentum transfer, the pion mass, and the lattice spacing using modified 𝑧 expansions that account for subthreshold branch cuts, and apply dispersive bounds and asymptotic behavior constraints to achieve controlled uncertainties in the full semileptonic kinematic region. Using our form factor results, we present standard model predictions for the $Ξ$$^{−}_{𝑏}$ → $Ξ$ − ⁢𝛾 and $Ξ$$^{−}_{𝑏}$ → $Ξ$ − ⁢𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − branching fractions and two angular observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Verification of an analytic modeler for capillary pump loop thermal control systems

A number of computer programs have been written to model two-phase heat transfer systems for space use. These programs support the design of thermal control systems and provide a method of predicting their performance in the wide range of thermal environments of space. Predicting the performance of one such system known as the capillary pump loop (CPL) is the intent of the CPL Modeler. By modeling two developed CPL systems and comparing the results with actual test data, the CPL Modeler has proven useful in simulating CPL operation. Results of the modeling effort are discussed, together with plans for refinements to the modeler.

Schweickart, R. B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonresonant particle acceleration in strong turbulence: Comparison to kinetic and MHD simulations

Collisionless, magnetized turbulence offers a promising framework for the generation of nonthermal high-energy particles in various astrophysical sites. Yet, the detailed mechanism that governs particle acceleration has remained subject to debate. By means of 2D and 3D particle-in-cell, as well as 3D (incompressible) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations, we test here a recent model of nonresonant particle acceleration in strongly magnetized turbulence, which ascribes the energization of particles to their continuous interaction with the random velocity flow of the turbulence, in the spirit of the original Fermi model. To do so, we compare, for a large number of particles that were tracked in the simulations, the predicted and the observed histories of particles momenta. The predicted history is that derived from the model, after extracting from the simulations, at each point along the particle trajectory, the three force terms that control acceleration: the acceleration of the field line velocity projected along the field line direction, its shear projected along the same direction, and its transverse compressive part. Overall, we find a clear correlation between the model predictions and the numerical experiments, indicating that this nonresonant model can successfully account for the bulk of particle energization through Fermi-type processes in strongly magnetized turbulence. Additionally we also observe that the parallel shear contribution tends to dominate the physics of energization in the particle-in-cell simulations, while in the magnetohydrodynamic incompressible simulation, both the parallel shear and the transverse compressive term provide about equal contributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1991

The zeroes of controlled structures - Sensor/actuator attributes and structural modelling

The effects of sensor/actuator design and modeling decisions on the zero frequencies of single input single output structural systems are explored. A zero definition based on the high gain closed loop character of the poles of a system is used to study parametrically zeroes as a function of sensor and actuator location. An infinite order model is adopted so that the effects of finite order modeling are removed. Examples focus on point or localized actuators and sensors and simple uniform structures. The sensitivity of the zero frequencies to changes in the sensor and actuator location for both collocated and non-collocated cases are presented. Non-minimum phase behavior is visible in only certain non-collocated situations. In addition to the sensor/actuator attributes, the zeroes are shown to be a function of the truncation and discretization used to model the structural response for collocated and dual systems. Methods for improving the zero predictions in the control bandwidth are suggested.

Fleming, Farla M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gene network centrality analysis identifies key regulators coordinating day-night metabolic transitions in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 despite limited accuracy in predicting direct regulator-gene interactions

Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 is a model organism for studying circadian regulation and bioproduction, where precise temporal control of metabolism significantly impacts photosynthetic efficiency and CO 2 -to-bioproduct conversion. Despite extensive research on core clock components, our understanding of the broader regulatory network orchestrating genome-wide metabolic transitions remains incomplete. We address this gap by applying machine learning tools and network analysis to investigate the transcriptional architecture governing circadian-controlled gene expression. While our approach showed moderate accuracy in predicting individual transcription factor-gene interactions - a common challenge with real expression data - network-level topological analysis successfully revealed the organizational principles of circadian regulation. Our analysis identified distinct regulatory modules coordinating day-night metabolic transitions, with photosynthesis and carbon/nitrogen metabolism controlled by day-phase regulators, while nighttime modules orchestrate glycogen mobilization and redox metabolism. Through network centrality analysis, we identified potentially significant but previously understudied transcriptional regulators: HimA as a putative DNA architecture regulator, and TetR and SrrB as potential coordinators of nighttime metabolism, working alongside established global regulators RpaA and RpaB. This work demonstrates how network-level analysis can extract biologically meaningful insights despite limitations in predicting direct regulatory interactions. The regulatory principles uncovered here advance our understanding of how cyanobacteria coordinate complex metabolic transitions and may inform metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced photosynthetic bioproduction from CO 2 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

NASA NTRS1982

The effects of multiplicative motor noise on the optimal human operator model

The effects of a multiplicative motor noise model on the optimal-control human operator model were analyzed. A study of the interaction between multiplicative motor noise variance, plant dynamics, and predicted operator response behavior shows that, in general, an increase in motor noise variance produces a decrease in operator gain and a decrease in high-frequency remnant. An increase in multiplicative motor noise variance is also reflected by an increase in the effective motor time constant; in the absence of a cost penalty on commanded control, the motor time constant equals the motor noise variance.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

COFS 1: Beam dynamics and control technology overview

The Control of Flexible Structures (COFS) 1 Project provides the invaluable opportunity to test, validate, and measure the effectiveness of theories, structural concepts, control systems, and flight certification processes for future missions through a research program focusing on multiple issues in large flexible structures, dynamics, and controls. The COFS 1 Project consists of a series of ground and flight activities building progressively from modeling and dynamic characterization of large space systems to the more complex issues of flexible-body control. The program objectives are to: determine the degree to which theory and ground testing can predict flight performance of next-generation low-frequency structures; evaluate structural fidelity of representative next-generation large deployable precision structure; assess math modeling requirements for large lightweight complex systems on which ground test results are questionable; determine degree to which scale model analysis and tests can be correlated to full-scale performance; evaluate system identification and state estimation algorithms on complex lightweight structures in the space environment; evaluate and verify controls/structures modeling capability; evaluate control laws and control systems; and evaluate damping effects in micro-g environment.

Allen, John L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Aircraft Flight Envelope Determination using Upset Detection and Physical Modeling Methods

The development of flight control systems to enhance aircraft safety during periods of vehicle impairment or degraded operations has been the focus of extensive work in recent years. Conditions adversely affecting aircraft flight operations and safety may result from a number of causes, including environmental disturbances, degraded flight operations, and aerodynamic upsets. To enhance the effectiveness of adaptive and envelope limiting controls systems, it is desirable to examine methods for identifying the occurrence of anomalous conditions and for assessing the impact of these conditions on the aircraft operational limits. This paper describes initial work performed toward this end, examining the use of fault detection methods applied to the aircraft for aerodynamic performance degradation identification and model-based methods for envelope prediction. Results are presented in which a model-based fault detection filter is applied to the identification of aircraft control surface and stall departure failures/upsets. This application is supported by a distributed loading aerodynamics formulation for the flight dynamics system reference model. Extensions for estimating the flight envelope due to generalized aerodynamic performance degradation are also described.

Keller, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complex surface topographic changes from explosive experiments at the Dry Alluvium Geology site, southern Nevada, United States

Understanding the surface topographic change that results from underground explosions is important for global security. Current techniques to relate the surface change to underground explosion characteristics usually involve assuming the earth has homogenous properties, leading to highly variable interpretations. Here we use an unoccupied aerial platform and a digital single lens reflex camera along with 200+ ground control points surveyed with a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system to measure the surface topographic change resulting from two underground explosions at the Dry Alluvium Geology site in Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, southern Nevada, United States. We find areas of 5–7 cm of subsidence that are not directly above the explosion source but rather 200–300 m away. For experiment DAG2, this zone is located south and west of the explosion, while for DAG4, there is a zone of subsidence located northeast of the explosion. In addition, late-time measurements show as much as 5 cm of horizontal change without measurable associated vertical change in the weeks following DAG4 but not DAG2. These indicate that the deformation resulting from underground chemical explosions can be very complex and bear little to no resemblance to predictions using half-space models. It is likely the tectonic environment plays a significant role in controlling the surface change, but the details are not fully understood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Shuttle active thermal control system development testing. Volume 3: Modular radiator system test data correlation with thermal model

Results are presented of an analysis which compares the performance predictions of a thermal model of a multi-panel modular radiator system with thermal vacuum test data. Comparisons between measured and predicted individual panel outlet temperatures and pressure drops and system outlet temperatures have been made over the full range of heat loads, environments and plumbing arrangements expected for the shuttle radiators. Both two sided and one sided radiation have been included. The model predictions show excellent agreement with the test data for the maximum design conditions of high load and hot environment. Predictions under minimum design conditions of low load-cold environments indicate good agreement with the measured data, but evaluation of low load predictions should consider the possibility of parallel flow instabilities due to main system freezing. Performance predictions under intermediate conditions in which the majority of the flow is not in either the main or prime system are adequate although model improvements in this area may be desired. The primary modeling objective of providing an analytical technique for performance predictions of a multi-panel radiator system under the design conditions has been met.

Phillips, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Large space structure model reduction and control system design based upon actuator and sensor influence functions

A model reduction procedure based on aggregation with respect to sensor and actuator influences rather than modes is presented for large systems of coupled second-order differential equations. Perturbation expressions which can predict the effects of spillover on both the aggregated and residual states are derived. These expressions lead to the development of control system design constraints which are sufficient to guarantee, to within the validity of the perturbations, that the residual states are not destabilized by control systems designed from the reduced model. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the application of the aggregation and control system design method.

Yam, Y.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-27111-DND

Rigid aeroshell systems are rapidly approaching the payload limit that current technology can deliver while fitting within the payload envelope of existing launch vehicles. The need for higher entry mass, landing elevation, and more controllability has pushed NASA to improve existing atmospheric entry technologies to further its scientific and exploration capabilities. Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIADs) are an emerging technology that allows entry vehicles to deliver larger payloads to higher landing elevations by providing a larger aeroshell diameter than rigid aeroshells. HIADs offer new methods of entry vehicle trajectory control through shape morphing of the inflatable aeroshell. This dissertation explores different concepts of morphing a HIAD by assessing its structural integrity, aerodynamic performance, and systems integration. Analytical models are developed to predict the amount of force required to achieve a desired morphed shape, an actuator and sensor are selected based on performance requirements, and a controller is designed to morph the HIAD through Lift-to-Drag modulation. The actuator and sensor system and controller are then integrated into a small-scale development unit of a HIAD and experimental results are compared to numerical simulations. Conclusions and contributions of this research are presented along with a discussion on further research opportunities of Morphing HIADs.

Adam Milne Slagle↗