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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗

Machine learning for automated experimentation in scanning transmission electron microscopy

Abstract Machine learning (ML) has become critical for post-acquisition data analysis in (scanning) transmission electron microscopy, (S)TEM, imaging and spectroscopy. An emerging trend is the transition to real-time analysis and closed-loop microscope operation. The effective use of ML in electron microscopy now requires the development of strategies for microscopy-centric experiment workflow design and optimization. Here, we discuss the associated challenges with the transition to active ML, including sequential data analysis and out-of-distribution drift effects, the requirements for edge operation, local and cloud data storage, and theory in the loop operations. Specifically, we discuss the relative contributions of human scientists and ML agents in the ideation, orchestration, and execution of experimental workflows, as well as the need to develop universal hyper languages that can apply across multiple platforms. These considerations will collectively inform the operationalization of ML in next-generation experimentation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Andromeda gamma-ray excess: background systematics of the millisecond pulsars and dark matter interpretations

ABSTRACT Since the discovery of an excess in gamma rays in the direction of M31, its cause has been unclear. Published interpretations focus on dark matter or stellar related origins. Studies of a similar excess in the Milky Way centre motivate a correlation of the spatial morphology of the signal with the distribution of stellar mass in M31. However, a robust determination of the best theory for the observed excess emission is challenging due to uncertainties in the astrophysical gamma-ray foreground model. We perform a spectro-morphological analysis of the M31 gamma-ray excess using state-of-the-art templates for the distribution of stellar mass in M31 and novel astrophysical foreground models for its sky region. We construct maps for the old stellar populations of M31 based on data from the PAndAS survey and carefully remove the foreground stars. We also produce improved astrophysical foreground models via novel image inpainting techniques based on machine learning methods. Our stellar maps, mimicking the location of a population of millisecond pulsars in the bulge of M31, reach a 5.4σ significance, making them as strongly favoured as the simple phenomenological models usually considered in the literature, e.g. disc-like templates. This detection is robust to generous variations of the astrophysical foreground model. Once the stellar templates are included in the astrophysical model, we show that the dark matter annihilation interpretation of the signal is unwarranted. We demonstrate that about one million unresolved millisecond pulsars naturally explain the observed gamma-ray luminosity per stellar mass, energy spectrum, and stellar bulge-to-disc flux ratio.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Manifold Learning: What, How, and Why

Manifold learning (ML), also known as nonlinear dimension reduction, is a set of methods to find the low-dimensional structure of data. Dimension reduction for large, high-dimensional data is not merely a way to reduce the data; the new representations and descriptors obtained by ML reveal the geometric shape of high-dimensional point clouds and allow one to visualize, denoise, and interpret them. This review presents the underlying principles of ML, its representative methods, and their statistical foundations, all from a practicing statistician's perspective. It describes the trade-offs and what theory tells us about the parameter and algorithmic choices we make in order to obtain reliable conclusions.

Mathematics↗

Holographic pseudoentanglement and the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary

The `quantum gravity in the lab' paradigm suggests that quantum computers might shed light on quantum gravity by simulating the CFT side of the AdS/CFT correspondence and mapping the results to the AdS side. This relies on the assumption that the duality map (the `dictionary') is efficient to compute. In this work, we show that the complexity of the AdS/CFT dictionary is surprisingly subtle: there might be cases in which one can efficiently apply operators to the CFT state (a task we call 'operator reconstruction') without being able to extract basic properties of the dual bulk state such as its geometry (which we call 'geometry reconstruction'). Geometry reconstruction corresponds to the setting where we want to extract properties of a completely unknown bulk dual from a simulated CFT boundary state. We demonstrate that geometry reconstruction may be generically hard due to the connection between geometry and entanglement in holography. In particular we construct ensembles of states whose entanglement approximately obey the Ryu-Takayanagi formula for arbitrary geometries, but which are nevertheless computationally indistinguishable. This suggests that even for states with the special entanglement structure of holographic CFT states, geometry reconstruction might be hard. This result should be compared with existing evidence that operator reconstruction is generically easy in AdS/CFT. A useful analogy for the difference between these two tasks is quantum fully homomorphic encryption (FHE): this encrypts quantum states in such a way that no efficient adversary can learn properties of the state, but operators can be applied efficiently to the encrypted state. We show that quantum FHE can separate the complexity of geometry reconstruction vs operator reconstruction, which raises the question whether FHE could be a useful lens through which to view AdS/CFT.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Fast and Accurate Machine Learning Strategy for Calculating Partial Atomic Charges in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Computational high-throughput screening using molecular simulations is a powerful tool for identifying top-performing metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for gas storage and separation applications. Accurate partial atomic charges are often required to model the electrostatic interactions between the MOF and the adsorbate, especially when the adsorption involves molecules with dipole or quadrupole moments such as water and CO 2 . Although ab initio methods can be used to calculate accurate partial atomic charges, these methods are impractical for screening large material databases because of the high computational cost. We developed a random forest machine learning model to predict the partial atomic charges in MOFs using a small yet meaningful set of features that represent both the elemental properties and the local environment of each atom. The model was trained and tested on a collection of about 320 000 density-derived electrostatic and chemical (DDEC) atomic charges calculated on a subset of the Computation-Ready Experimental Metal–Organic Framework (CoRE MOF-2019) database and separately on charge model 5 (CM5) charges. The model predicts accurate atomic charges for MOFs at a fraction of the computational cost of periodic density functional theory (DFT) and is found to be transferable to other porous molecular crystals and zeolites. In conclusion, a strong correlation is observed between the partial atomic charge and the average electronegativity difference between the central atom and its bonded neighbors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Ensemble Neural Network Model for Predicting Rare-Earth Oxide and Silicate Heat Capacities at High Temperature

In this work, a neural network model was developed to predict the constant pressure heat capacity for materials in the rare-earth oxide—silica material space. Several model architectures were trained and tested on heat capacity data generated from first-principles density functional theory calculations. Hyperparameter optimization was performed, and the optimal model was selected for heat capacity predictions. The optimal model architecture was found to have a root-mean-squared error of 5.12 ± 3.37 J/mol-K. The optimal model architecture was then used in a bagging ensemble model trained using the leave-one-group-out method to provide error estimates for model predictions. The out-of-bag score for the ensemble model was 0.997. The predicted heat capacities agree well with the DFT and experimental results and were computed orders of magnitude faster than DFT simulations. Machine learning shows the potential to provide a suitable surrogate model for thermochemical property predictions for candidate environmental barrier coating materials but refining of input material features and model architectures could further improve accuracy for these models.

environmental barrier coatings↗

Baryon Number Violation Search

Understanding the fundamental forces and symmetries of nature has long been a central goal of particle physics. While the Standard Model (SM) provides a successful framework, it does not guarantee the conservation of baryon number B or lepton number L, thus motivating searches for their violation. Proton decay, a fundamental process violating B, has been at the forefront of experimental searches for decades.The discovery of the weak neutral current in 1973 unified the electromagnetic and weak forces and inspired the creation of Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) that also unify the strong force. In 1974, the first-ever GUT, proposed by Georgi and Glashow, naturally predicted proton decay. This prediction led to an experimental push to validate these theories, and a large underground detector boom was born. Initially designed for proton decay searches, these detectors later proved invaluable to neutrino physics.Although no evidence for proton decay has yet been observed, next-generation large detectors, such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), offer the opportunity to improve on current experimental limits. Utilizing its Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology, DUNE is positioned to probe rare processes such as proton decay with increased sensitivity.This thesis presents a sensitivity study for the dominant proton decay mode predicted by Supersymmetric GUTs, p → K+ν, utilizing machine learning approaches. Two methods are explored in this thesis: a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) analysis and a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) analysis with NuGraph. A lifetime limit of 5.36 ± 0.69 × 1033 years for 400 kt-yrs is found using the BDT, while the GNN achieves a lifetime limit of 6.19±1.26×1033 years for 400-kt-yrs. The NuGraph result offers better sensitivity compared to the current limit set by Super-Kamiokande of 5.90 × 1033 while the BDT result offers a slightly lower sensitivity.Additionally, this thesis discusses cross-section work, a first-ever foray into proton decay and atmospheric neutrinos in a vertical drift (VD) DUNE detector, and extensive hardware contributions to the DUNE Far Detector (FD) 1 Module-0, ProtoDUNE-2, which serves as a testbed for the final detector design and installation.

Stokes, Tyler D. [Louisiana State U.] (ORCID:00000↗

Active Learning Accelerated Discovery of Stable Iridium Oxide Polymorphs for the Oxygen Evolution Reaction

The discovery of high-performing and stable materials for sustainable energy applications is a pressing goal in catalysis and materials science. Understanding the relationship between a material’s structure and functionality is an important step in the process, such that viable polymorphs for a given chemical composition need to be identified. Machine-learning-based surrogate models have the potential to accelerate the search for polymorphs that target specific applications. Herein, we report a readily generalizable active-learning (AL) accelerated algorithm for identification of electrochemically stable iridium oxide polymorphs of IrO 2 and IrO 3 . The search is coupled to a subsequent analysis of the electrochemical stability of the discovered structures for the acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER). Structural candidates are generated by identifying all 956 structurally unique AB2 and AB3 prototypes in existing materials databases (more than 38000). Next, using an active learning approach, we find 196 IrO 2 polymorphs within the thermodynamic amorphous synthesizability limit and reaffirm the global stability of the rutile structure. We find 75 synthesizable IrO 3 polymorphs and report a previously unknown FeF 3 -type structure as the most stable, termed α-IrO 3 . To test the algorithms performance, we compare to a random search of the candidate space and report at least a 2-fold increase in the rate of discovery. Additionally, the AL approach can acquire the most stable polymorphs of IrO 2 and IrO 3 with fewer than 30 density functional theory optimizations. Analysis of the structural properties of the discovered polymorphs reveals that octahedral local coordination environments are preferred for nearly all low-energy structures. Subsequent Pourbaix Ir–H 2 O analysis shows that α-IrO3 is the globally stable solid phase under acidic OER conditions and supersedes the stability of rutile IrO 2 . Calculation of theoretical OER surface activities reveal ideal weaker binding of the OER intermediates on α-IrO 3 than on any other considered iridium oxide. We emphasize that the proposed AL algorithm can be easily generalized to search for any binary metal oxide structure with a defined stoichiometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Online Prototype Toolset for Predicting and Optimizing P&T Performance (FY23 Status Report)

A new web-based toolset is being developed to support ongoing remediation optimization efforts and implementation of an adaptive site management strategy for the 200 West Area Pump-and-Treat (P&T) system at the Hanford Site. This toolset, comprising the well performance index tool and the well optimization pre-screening tool, will offer a user-friendly interface to predict and optimize the P&T well network’s performance at a preliminary level. Efforts in fiscal year (FY) 2023 focused on three main components: updating the existing deep learning model for predicting P&T performance, designing and developing a prototype of a web-based performance index tool, and initiating the conceptual design of the well optimization pre-screening tool. The well performance index tool is based on a pre-trained deep learning model that allows users to select a target contaminant and well screen length, then visualize the predicted performance of potential new wells across the site. The well optimization pre-screening tool includes two separate modules: the pre-computed scenario viewer, which organizes and visualizes offline optimization simulation results, and the quick analysis module, which provides real-time model prediction using user-specified well locations. In FY24, the plan is to add web-based applications to SOCRATES for both the well performance prediction tool and the optimization prescreening tool, with accompanying user and theory guides. These tools are intended to enable an accessible, easily applied, and transparent approach to remedy planning and decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning Modeling Pipeline for Extracting Nuclear Proliferation Events of Interest from Open Data Sources (U)

In FY2020, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University entered a collaboration funded by Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development. The project’s mission was to take the first steps toward developing a demonstration prototype system that uses multiple machine learning and data analytics methods on largescale open data sources to identify new, developing, and/or undeclared nuclear programs. Given the SRNL team’s on-site perspective of events culminating in the DOE’s decision to pursue the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility (SRPPF), the team targeted the identification of events and indicators in retrospective datasets that pointed to the activity of “fissile core fabrication at the Savannah River Site” prior to the official announcement in May of 2018. A preliminary modeling pipeline was developed in FY20 that showed the datasets contained adequate signal for continuation of efforts. In FY21, a modular demonstration prototype modeling pipeline has continued in development for two text-based data sources: a broad internet archive (Webhose Ltd.) and a decahose Twitter database (i.e., a global sampling of one in every ten Tweets). The techniques that have been developed rely on graph theory and anomaly detection to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases at various points in time such that indicators of events of interest could be identified and subsequently, events could be extracted from the corpuses. The foundational concept behind the approaches is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases can act as indicators of events of interest. Both datasets have proven successful in extracting events of interest related to pit production at the Savannah River Site prior to the official announcement. In addition, the pipelines have generated a wide range of events broadly summarized as: the awarding of DOE contracts at major sites, DOE investments in various programs, accidents at DOE national laboratories, speculations about the fate of pit production in the DOE complex, domestic and international shipments and receipts of nuclear materials at DOE sites, termination of non-proliferation agreements with Russia, termination of MOX, new weapons development approvals/testing, nuclear posture reviews, major DOE cleanup/production milestones, political opinions, and nuclear watch groups’ opinions, among many others.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inorganic Halide Double Perovskites with Optoelectronic Properties Modulated by Sublattice Mixing

All-inorganic halide double perovskites have emerged as a promising class of materials that are potentially more stable and less toxic than lead-containing hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite optoelectronic materials. In this work, 311 cesium chloride double perovskites (Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 ) were selected from a set of 903 compounds as likely being stable on the basis of a statistically learned tolerance factor (t) for perovskite stability. First-principles calculations on these 311 double perovskites were then performed to assess their stability and identify candidates with band gaps appropriate for optoelectronic applications. We predict that 261 of the 311 Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 compounds are likely synthesizable on the basis of a thermodynamic analysis of their decomposition to competing compounds (decomposition enthalpy <0.05 eV/atom). Of these 261 likely synthesizable compounds, 47 contain no toxic elements and have direct or nearly direct (within 100 meV) band gaps between 1 and 3 eV, as computed with hybrid density functional theory (HSE06). Within this set, we identify the triple-alkali perovskites Cs 2 [Alk] + [TM] 3+ Cl 6 , where Alk is a group 1 alkali cation and TM is a transition-metal cation, as a class of Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 double perovskites with remarkable optical properties, including large and tunable exciton binding energies as computed by the GW-Bethe-Salpeter equation (GW-BSE) method. We attribute the unusual electronic structure of these compounds to the mixing of the Alk-Cl and TM-Cl sublattices, leading to materials with small band gaps, large exciton binding energies, and absorption spectra that are strongly influenced by the identity of the transition metal. The role of the double-perovskite structure in enabling these unique properties is probed through an analysis of the electronic structures and chemical bonding of these compounds in comparison with other transition-metal and alkali transition-metal halides.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reflections on one million compounds in the open quantum materials database (OQMD)

Abstract Density functional theory (DFT) has been widely applied in modern materials discovery and many materials databases, including the open quantum materials database (OQMD), contain large collections of calculated DFT properties of experimentally known crystal structures and hypothetical predicted compounds. Since the beginning of the OQMD in late 2010, over one million compounds have now been calculated and stored in the database, which is constantly used by worldwide researchers in advancing materials studies. The growth of the OQMD depends on project-based high-throughput DFT calculations, including structure-based projects, property-based projects, and most recently, machine-learning-based projects. Another major goal of the OQMD is to ensure the openness of its materials data to the public and the OQMD developers are constantly working with other materials databases to reach a universal querying protocol in support of the FAIR data principles.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sparse distributed memory overview

The Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) project is investigating the theory and applications of massively parallel computing architecture, called sparse distributed memory, that will support the storage and retrieval of sensory and motor patterns characteristic of autonomous systems. The immediate objectives of the project are centered in studies of the memory itself and in the use of the memory to solve problems in speech, vision, and robotics. Investigation of methods for encoding sensory data is an important part of the research. Examples of NASA missions that may benefit from this work are Space Station, planetary rovers, and solar exploration. Sparse distributed memory offers promising technology for systems that must learn through experience and be capable of adapting to new circumstances, and for operating any large complex system requiring automatic monitoring and control. Sparse distributed memory is a massively parallel architecture motivated by efforts to understand how the human brain works. Sparse distributed memory is an associative memory, able to retrieve information from cues that only partially match patterns stored in the memory. It is able to store long temporal sequences derived from the behavior of a complex system, such as progressive records of the system's sensory data and correlated records of the system's motor controls.

Raugh, Mike↗

Cauer Prototype for Butterworth Filters: Lowpass, Highpass, Bandpass, and Bandstop Transformations

I had a need to develop a real, physical, analog filter with real RLC components. Having spent a career in theory, I had only ever designed filters for signal processing. I needed only the a and b coefficients. But converting a and b coefficients into RLC values was beyond me. Web searches returned nothing useful until I found Dr. Aaron Danner’s Designing Passive Butterworth Filters (10 - Passive Filters), part of an excellent YouTube series which introduced me to the Cauer prototype for Butterworth filters and Cauer topologies. Failing to find documentation on Cauer filter prototypes, I asked Anthropic’s Claude AI for assistance. Claude returned a few errors which I corrected. This is a comprehensive report on what I learned.

42 ENGINEERING↗