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NASA NTRS2001

On the Accuracy of Probabilistic Bucking Load Prediction

The buckling strength of thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells is of major concern in aeronautical and space applications. The difficulty to predict the behavior of axially compressed thin-walled cylindrical shells continues to worry design engineers as we enter the third millennium. Thanks to extensive research programs in the late sixties and early seventies and the contributions of many eminent scientists, it is known that buckling strength calculations are affected by the uncertainties in the definition of the parameters of the problem such as definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, edge support conditions, and the accuracy of the engineering models and analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor. This so-called 'empirical knockdown factor gamma' usually results in overly conservative design. Recently new reliability based probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect shells have been proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach which introduces an improved 'scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a)', that is not as conservative as the traditional empirical one. In order to incorporate probabilistic methods into a High Fidelity Analysis Approach one must be able to assess the accuracy of the various steps that must be executed to complete a reliability calculation. In the present paper the effect of size of the experimental input sample on the predicted value of the scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a) calculated by the First-Order, Second-Moment Method is investigated.

Arbocz, Johann↗

NASA NTRS2001

An Overview of the SOLVE-THESEO 2000 Campaign

Between November 1999 and April 2000, two major field experiments, the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) and the Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (THESEO 2000), collaborated to form the largest field campaign yet mounted to study Arctic ozone loss. This international campaign involved more than 500 scientists from over 20 countries spread across the high and mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The main scientific aims of SOLVE-THESEO 2000 were to study (a) the processes leading to ozone loss in the Arctic vortex and (b) the effect on ozone amounts over northern mid-latitudes. The campaign included satellites, heavy lift balloon launches, 6 different aircraft, ground stations, and scores of ozone-sonde. Campaign activities were principally conducted in 3 intensive measurement phases centered on early December 1999, late January 2000, and early March 2000. Observations made during the campaign showed that temperatures were unusually cold in the polar lower stratosphere over the course of the 1999-2000 winter. These cold temperatures resulted in the formation of extensive polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) across the Arctic. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on the surfaces of the PSC particles produced high levels of reactive chlorine within the polar vortex by early January. This reactive chlorine catalytically destroyed about 60% of the ozone in a layer near 20 km between late January and mid-March 2000.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Natural Displays: Anticipating the Future at NASA

There are two ways in which the human factors discipline is called upon to contribute to the development of new products or systems at NASA Ames Research Center. First, there is the application of known human factors principles in the design of a product. This type of application of human factors expertise can be called upon at any time in the evolution of a system or product, with the probability of success a direct function of how early in the system development cycle that the human factors experts are called in. This dependence on timing is due to two things. First, late in the development cycle many decisions have been made that cannot be unmade, and human factors solutions by necessity take on the nature of work-arounds. Second, in many cases where highly innovative or unusual systems are being proposed, known principles are not sufficient to answer design questions. Since most projects work to deadlines, there is generally not enough time late in a project for time-consuming human factors research efforts. In fact, due to the nature of project management, intermediate deadlines often preclude significant research efforts even when the human factors effort is brought in at the beginning. Therefore, critical research, a second function of the human factors effort at NASA Ames, is needed before projects are initiated. How do we determine the necessary research?

Johnson, Walter W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Origin of Hot Subluminous Horizontal-Branch Stars in (omega) Centauri and NGC 2808

Hot subluminous stars lying up to 0.7 mag below the extreme horizontal branch (EHB) are found in the ultraviolet (UV) color magnitude diagrams of both (omega) Cen and NGC 2808. In order to explore the evolutionary status of these subluminous stars, we have evolved a set of low-mass stars continuously from the main sequence through the helium-core flash to the HB (horizontal branch) for a wide range in the mass loss along the red-giant branch (RGB). Stars with the largest mass loss evolve off the RGB to high effective temperatures before igniting helium in their cores. Our results indicate that the subluminous EHB stars, as well as the gap within the EHB of NGC 2808, can be explained if these stars undergo a late helium-core flash while descending the white-dwarf cooling curve. Under these conditions the convection zone produced by the helium flash will penetrate into the stellar envelope, thereby mixing most, if not all, of the envelope hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed. This phenomenon is analogous to the 'born-again' scenario for producing hydrogen-deficient stars following a very late helium-shell flash. This 'flash mixing' of the stellar envelope greatly enhances the envelope helium and carbon abundances and, as a result, leads to a discontinuous jump in the HB effective temperature. We argue that the EHB gap in NGC 2808 is associated with this theoretically predicted dichotomy in the HB morphology. Using new helium- and carbon-rich stellar atmospheres, we show that these changes in the envelope abundances of the flash-mixed stars will suppress the UV flux by the amount needed to explain the hot subluminous EHB stars in (omega) Cen and NGC 2808. Moreover, we demonstrate that models without flash mixing lie, at most, only approximately 0.1 mag below the EHB, and hence fail to explain the observations. Flash mixing may also provide a new evolutionary channel for producing the high gravity, helium-rich sdO and sdB stars.

Sweigart, Allen V.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Contributions of Planetary Science to Studies of Early Biosphere Evolution

The history of impact cratering on the Moon, and extrapolations of crater chronologies to the inner planets, suggests that the late accretionary history of the Earth overlapped with other crucial events in the its history, including the origin of terrestrial life. This evidence, acquired from studies of other planetary bodies in the inner solar system, has profoundly affected how we view the early history of the Earth and evolution of the biosphere. Pre-biotic chemical evolution and the origin of life would have been delayed by the probable existence of a global magma ocean until -4.2 Ga. The early crust was largely destroyed by recycling, thus accounting for the sparse Archean record on Earth. Once life had developed, large impacts may have extinguished it several times before it finally gained a foothold. Potentially sterilizing impacts could have occurred as late as 3.7 Ga. At the very least, large impacts would have forced the biosphere through major environmental "bottlenecks" thereby canalizing its subsequent evolution. One legacy of these early events may be the structure of the present RNA-tree which indicates that extreme thermophiles are primitive within the Archaea, and may be the last common ancestors of life. By 3.5 Ga, marine sedimentary sequences contain unequivocal microbial fossils that attest to the presence of a terrestrial biosphere. The diversity of microbial forms present in these earliest fossil assemblages implies a preceding interval of evolution during which major evolutionary advances (e.g. photosynthesis) could have taken place. Evidence cited above places the origin of life within the interval 3.5 and 4.2 Ga, a period of 700 Ma. Thus, it appears that terrestrial life not only evolved rapidly, but perhaps more than once. This expands the possibilities that life may have also developed elsewhere. Of the other planets in our solar system, Mars holds the greatest chance of having developed life. But, the present surface of Mars is hostile to life. Liquid water, regarded as essential for living systems, is unstable on the surface of Mars due to the low atmospheric pressure. The results of the Viking Lander biology experiments established that organic molecules are not present in the regolith of Mars, forcing the exobiological community to consider new ways of exploring for Martian life. Older, heavily cratered terranes on Mars show geomorphic evidence for abundant water between 3.0- 4.0 Ga. It is quite possible that life developed on Mars during this time, as it did on the Earth. The present focus for Mars Exobiology lies in the search for a fossil record. Archean-aged crust, while mostly missing on Earth, appears to be widespread in ancient cratered highlands of Mars, and aqueous mineral deposits within such sequences may hold crucial fossil evidence for an early Martian biosphere.

Farmer, Jack D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Exploring for Martian Life

Terrestrial life appears to have arisen very quickly during late accretion, sometime between approximately 3.5 and 4.2 Ga. During this same time, liquid water appears to have been abundant at the surface of Mars and it is quite plausable that life originated there as well. We now believe that the last common ancestor of terrestrial life was a sulfur-metabolizing microbe that lived at high temperatures. Rooting of the RNA tree in thermophily probably reflects high temperature "bottle-necking" of the biosphere by giant impacts during late accretion, sometime after life had originated. If high temperature bottle-necking is a general property of early biosphere development, Martian life may have also developed in close association with hydrothermal systems. Several independent lines of evidence suggest that hydrothermal processes have played an important role during the geological history of Mars. Because hydrothermal deposits on Earth are known to capture and retain abundant microbial fossil information, they are considered prime targets in the search for an ancient Martian biosphere. An important step in planning for future landed missions to Mars is the selection of priority targets for high resolution orbital mapping. Geotectonic terranes on Mars that provide a present focus for ongoing site selection studies include channels located along the margins of impact crater melt sheets, or on the slopes of ancient Martian volcanoes, chaotic and fretted terranes where shallow subsurface heat sources are thought to have interacted with ground ice, and the floors of calderas and rifted basins. Orbital missions in 1996, 1998 and 2001 will provide opportunities for high resolution geological mapping at key sites in such terranes, as a basis for selecting targets for future landed missions for exopaleontology.

Farmer, Jack D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Full-Span Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) Overview and 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel Test

Most helicopter data trends cannot be extrapolated to tiltrotors because blade geometry and aerodynamic behavior, as well as rotor and fuselage interactions, are significantly different for tiltrotors. A tiltrotor model has been developed to investigate the aeromechanics of tiltrotors, to develop a comprehensive database for validating tiltrotor analyses, and to provide a research platform for supporting future tiltrotor designs. The Full-Span Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Model (FS TRAM) is a dual-rotor, powered aircraft model with extensive instrumentation for measurement of structural and aerodynamic loads. This paper will present the Full-Span TRAM test capabilities and the first set of data obtained during a 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel test conducted in late 2000 at NASA Ames Research Center. The Full-Span TRAM is a quarter-scale representation of the V-22 Osprey aircraft, and a heavily instrumented NASA and U.S. Army wind tunnel test stand. Rotor structural loads are monitored and recorded for safety-of-flight and for information on blade loads and dynamics. Left and right rotor balance and fuselage balance loads are monitored for safety-of-flight and for measurement of vehicle and rotor aerodynamic performance. Static pressure taps on the left wing are used to determine rotor/wing interactional effects and rotor blade dynamic pressures measure blade airloads. All of these measurement capabilities make the FS TRAM test stand a unique and valuable asset for validation of computational codes and to aid in future tiltrotor designs. The Full-Span TRAM was tested in the NASA Ames Research Center 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel from October through December 2000. Rotor and vehicle performance measurements were acquired in addition to wing pressures, rotor acoustics, and Laser Light Sheet (LLS) flow visualization data. Hover, forward flight, and airframe (rotors off) aerodynamic runs were performed. Helicopter-mode data were acquired during angle of attack and thrust sweeps for a variety of tunnel speeds. Wake geometry images were acquired using LLS photographs and suggest dual tip vortex formation at low thrust conditions. The full paper will include comparisons to isolated-rotor TRAM data acquired at the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW) in 1998. The FS TRAM has been established as a valuable national asset for tiltrotor research. Data reduction and analysis of the 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel test results are underway. Follow-on testing of the FS TRAM is currently being planned for the NASA Ames 80- by 120-Foot Wind Tunnel in late 2001.

McCluer, Megan S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX -4

On 20 August 2001 during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4 (CAMEX-4) and NOAA Hurricane Field Program (HFP2001), the NASA high-altitude ER-2 and medium-altitude DC-8, and lower-altitude NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a coordinated Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) mission focused on convection in Tropical Storm Chantal. This storm first became a depression on 14 August, a tropical storm on 17 August, and it maintained maximum winds of about 65-70 mph during 19-20 August with minimum pressures ranging from 1008 mb on 19 August to 1001 mb late on 20 August. The storm was westward moving and was forecasted to intensify and landfall near the Yucatan-Belize border late on 20 August. Chanter failed to intensify and instead exhibited a highly sheared structure with an open low-level circulation and intense convection well to the northeast of this circulation center. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were closely coordinated with the NOAA P3 (NOAA-42). The NASA aircraft collected remote sensing and in situ data sets, while the P3 collected lower level in situ and radar data; both the DC-8 and P3 released 7 and 24 dropsondes, respectively. These aircraft measurements provided a unique opportunity to examine the structure of a sheared system and why it did not develop as forecasted a few days earlier. This paper will describe a preliminary study of the precipitation and wind structure provided by the NASA aircraft within the context of the NOAA P3 measurements.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Picault, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2003

Metallicity Effects on Stellar Magnetic Activity: Blanco 1 as a Test Case

We present X-ray Luminosity Distributions (XLDs) of late-type members (dF, dG, dK, dM) of the Blanco 1 cluster, based on ROSAT-HRI data and new astrometric-photometric membership obtained from the GSC-II project. For the first time we present the XLD of dM stars of this cluster. The high metallicity of Blanco 1 allows us to investigate the role of chemical composition on the coronal emission of late-type stars. Comparison between X-ray Luminosity Distributions of Blanco 1 and Pleiades, NGC2516 and alpha Per suggests a possible metallicity effect in dM stars.

Harnden, F. R., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Terrestrial Planet Formation in Binary Star Systems

Most stars reside in multiple star systems; however, virtually all models of planetary growth have assumed an isolated single star. Numerical simulations of the collapse of molecular cloud cores to form binary stars suggest that disks will form within such systems. Observations indirectly suggest disk material around one or both components within young binary star systems. If planets form at the right places within such circumstellar disks, they can remain in stable orbits within the binary star systems for eons. We are simulating the late stages of growth of terrestrial planets within binary star systems, using a new, ultrafast, symplectic integrator that we have developed for this purpose. We show that the late stages of terrestrial planet formation can indeed take place in a wide variety of binary systems and we have begun to delineate the range of parameter space for which this statement is true. Results of our initial simulations of planetary growth around each star in the alpha Centauri system and other 'wide' binary systems, as well as around both stars in very close binary systems, will be presented.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Clump Giants in the Hyades

The project is entitled 'Clump Giants in the Hyades.' This observation of one of the late-type Hyades giants (Gamma Tau) has implications for understanding the formation of late-type stellar coronae as a function of the evolutionary state of the star. The Hyades giants are interesting because they are all clump giants in the Helium burning phase, similar to the cool primary of Capella. The Hyades giants show significantly more magnetic activity than expected from their state of evolution (and slowed-down rotation). Thus these systems provide an important clue to dynamo action. The data were obtained by the satellite on 13 March 2001 for a total RGS exposure of 58220 seconds. These data were delivered to the PI on 7 August 2001. The data could not be reprocessed until SAS Version 5.3.3 which became available 7 June 2002. Although the guidelines for assessing background rates suggested that half the data were contaminated, it does not appear that the spectral region of the RGS was adversely affected by unusually high background. The spectra show strong lines of Fe XVII and XVIII, O VII and VIII, Ne IX and X, along with numerous weaker lines. The emission measure distribution is highly reminiscent of Capella; if anything, the emission measure distribution is steeper at 6 million K than for Capella. Gamma Tau is the second brightest of the Hyades clump giants. Pallavicini et al. have shown that the luminosity of the brightest Hyades giant (Theta Tau) is remarkably similar to its luminosity as measured by Einstein. Short-term variability is also modest. We are addressing the variability issue now for Gamma Tau. Initial results were reported at the 2003 Seattle AAS meeting. A paper is in preparation for submission to the Astrophysical Journal.

Mushotzky, Richard F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

When Earth Songs Filled the Void of Space

Before the late 50's we had the planets, our Sun, the stars, galaxies, spectacular clouds of dust and very little else in our universe. There was evidence for a highly tenuous "sea" of dust in interstellar space, but little else. Space was empty above the ionized gases of our upper atmosphere, a little like there was no color in the world before the 40's. The clues were there to think otherwise, however, and in the late 50's and early 60's a few researchers dared to challenge the conventional ideas about space. It was a time of discovery and, with our new ability to fly in space, a time that launched a new science. Today that science makes it possible to literally see some of the plasmas that populate near-Earth space, which are now known to exist everywhere.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Search for Soot from Global Wildfires in Central Pacific Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary and Other Extinction and Impact Horizon Sediments

Hypotheses of global wildfires following the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) boundary impact are supported by high concentrations of elemental carbon (3.6 mg cm-3) and soot (1.8 mg cm-2) in DSDP Site 465, which was located several thousand kilometers from potential continental sources at 65 Ma. Soot is not preserved at four other central Pacific KT localities, but this is attributed to loss during oxic diagenesis. We find no evidence for wildfires related to major impacts in the late Eocene or to Ir anomalies and extinctions in the late Cenomanian.

Wolbach, Wendy S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mass Flux in the Ancient Earth-Moon System and Benign Implications for the Origin of Life on Earth

The origin of life on Earth is commonly considered to have been negatively affected by intense impacting in the Hadean, with the potential for the repeated evaporation and sterilization of any ocean. The impact flux is based on scaling from the lunar crater density record, but that record has no tie to any absolute age determination for any identified stratigraphic unit older than approx. 3.9 Ga (Nectaris basin). The flux can be described in terms of mass accretion, and various independent means can be used to estimate the mass flux in different intervals. The critical interval is that between the end of essential crustal formation (approx. 4.4 Ga) and the oldest mare times (approx. 3.8 Ga). The masses of the basin-forming projectiles during Nectarian and early Imbrian times, when the last 15 of the approx.45 identified impact basins formed, can be reasonably estimated as minima. These in sum provide a minimum of 2 x 10(exp 21)g for the mass flux to the Moon during those times. If the interval was 80 million years (Nectaris 3.90 Ga, Orientale 3.82 Ga), then the flux was approx. 2 x 10(exp 13) g/yr over this period. This is higher by more than an order of magnitude than a flux curve that declines continuously and uniformly from lunar accretion to the rate inferred for the older mare plains. This rate cannot be extrapolated back increasingly into pre-Nectarian times, because the Moon would have added masses far in excess of itself in post-crust-formation time. Thus this episode was a distinct and cataclysmic set of events. There are approx. 30 pre-Nectarian basins, and they were probably part of the same cataclysm (starting at approx. 4.0 Ga?) because the crust is fairly intact, the meteoritic contamination of the pre-Nectarian crust is very low, impact melt rocks older than 3.92 Ga are virtually unknown, and ancient volcanic and plutonic rocks have survived this interval. The accretionary flux from approx. 4.4 to approx. 4.0 Ga was comparatively benign. When scaled to Earth, even the late cataclysm does not produce oceane vaporating, globally sterilizing events. The rooted concept that such events took place is based on the extrapolation of a nonexistent lunar record to the Hadean. The Earth from approx. 4.4 to approx. 3.8 Ga was comparatively peaceful, and the impacting itself could have been thermally and hydrothermally beneficial. The origin of life could have taken place at any time between 4.4 and 3.85 Ga, given the current impact constraints, and there is no justification for the claim that life originated (or re-originated) as late as 3.85 Ga in response to the end of hostile impact conditions.

Ryder, Graham↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Mars Express/NASA Project at JPL

ESA's Mars Express Mission is an international collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European space agencies with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a junior partner. The primary objective of the mission is to conduct a search for potential hydrologic resources from orbit and on the surface of Mars. Launch will be from Baikonur, Kazakhstan in late May 2003; arrival at Mars will be in late December 2003.

T W Thompson↗

NASA NTRS2003

Positron Physics

I will give a review of the history of low-energy positron physics, experimental and theoretical, concentrating on the type of work pioneered by John Humberston and the positronics group at University College. This subject became a legitimate subfield of atomic physics under the enthusiastic direction of the late Sir Harrie Massey, and it attracted a diverse following throughout the world. At first purely theoretical, the subject has now expanded to include high brightness beams of low-energy positrons, positronium beams, and, lately, experiments involving anti-hydrogen atoms. The theory requires a certain type of persistence in its practitioners, as well as an eagerness to try new mathematical and numerical techniques. I will conclude with a short summary of some of the most interesting recent advances.

Drachman, Richard J.↗