Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Findings”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,351 records · Page 75
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing hole trap production due to proton irradiation in germanium cross-strip detectors

We present an investigation into the effects of high-energy proton damage on charge trapping in germanium cross-strip detectors with the goal of accomplishing three important measurements. First, we calibrated and characterized the spectral resolution of a spare COSI-balloon detector in order to determine the effects of intrinsic trapping, finding that electron trapping due to impurities dominates over hole trapping in the undamaged detector. Second, we performed two rounds of proton irradiation of the detector in order to quantify, for the first time, the rate at which charge traps are produced by proton irradiation. We find that the product of the hole trap density and cross-sectional area, [nσ] h , follows a linear relationship with the proton fluence, F p , with a slope of (5.4 ± 0.4) x 10 -11 cm/p + . Third, by utilizing our measurements of physical trapping parameters, we performed calibrations which corrected for the effects of trapping and mitigated degradation to the spectral resolution of the detector.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting the first Sandia Fracture Challenge with transient deformation heating and strain localization considerations

In this study, we present a systematic experimental study and accompanying theoretical analysis of the dependence of ductile fracture on strain localization, strain hardening rates, deformation-induced thermal softening, and transient heat conduction under spatially uniform as well as spatially heterogeneous deformation. Spatially uniform cases are studied via standard dogbone shaped specimens subject to uniaxial tension. Spatially heterogeneous deformation is studied via the so-called Sandia Fracture Challenge (SFC) specimen, which is a standard compact tension specimen modified with three machined holes in front of a blunt notch. We utilize the same precipitation hardened martensitic stainless steel used in the first SFC experiments, i.e. 15-5 PH with an H1075 heat treatment. We also study 15-5 PH in Condition A and with the H900 heat treatment, each of which has a different hardening behavior and ductility. We find that the ductility does not correlate with the deformation to first crack initiation in the SFC specimen. Instead, hardening rates are better correlated. Moreover, a re-examination finds that an accurate calibration of the hardening rates is strongly correlated with accurate blind predictions of ductile fracture in the SFC specimens. Given that thermal softening can greatly affect hardening rates, we provided a thermographic analysis of deformation-induced heating and transient heat transfer in both the dogbone shaped samples and the SFC specimens. Transient heating in stainless steels is found to have first-order effects on the strain at the onset of necking, strain to fracture, as well as strain localization and ductile fracture in complex geometries even under so-called quasi-static loading rates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Risk-Aware Framework Development for Disruption Prediction: Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D Survival Analysis

Abstract Survival regression models can achieve longer warning times at similar receiver operating characteristic performance than previously investigated models. Survival regression models are also shown to predict the time until a disruption will occur with lower error than other predictors. Time-to-event predictions from time-series data can be obtained with a survival analysis statistical framework, and there have been many tools developed for this task which we aim to apply to disruption prediction. Using the open-source Auton-Survival package we have implemented disruption predictors with the survival regression models Cox Proportional Hazards, Deep Cox Proportional Hazards, and Deep Survival Machines. To compare with previous work, we also include predictors using a Random Forest binary classifier, and a conditional Kaplan-Meier formalism. We benchmarked the performance of these five predictors using experimental data from the Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks by simulating alarms on each individual shot. We find that developing machine-relevant metrics to evaluate models is an important area for future work. While this study finds cases where disruptive conditions are not predicted, there are instances where the desired outcome is produced. Giving the plasma control system the expected time-to-disruption will allow it to determine the optimal actuator response in real time to minimize risk of damage to the device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polywell Revisited

The Polywell fusion concept, originally proposed by Robert W. Bussard in 1985, has been investigated for over four decades as a potential solution for achieving net fusion energy in a compact and economically viable reactor. It combines two distinct approaches: high-beta magnetic cusp confinement of electrons using polyhedral coil configurations and electrostatic ion confinement via a potential well formed by injected electron beams. While the hybrid nature of the Polywell system offers advantages in plasma stability and engineering simplicity, previous efforts have been limited by persistent challenges in achieving sufficient plasma confinement required to generate a net energy gain. Here, in this study, we examine previous works and identify limitations of several Polywell embodiments that have historically impeded progress. We present an updated Polywell physics model incorporating experimental findings and recent first-principles particle-in-cell simulations. This updated model outlines a credible path toward overcoming confinement losses and achieving net energy gain using deuterium-tritium (D-T) fuels. Our findings provide a renewed scientific basis for the continued development of the Polywell fusion concept as a practical and scalable approach to fusion energy.

Electrostatic potential well↗
DOE OSTI2025

Superconducting Density of States of PtPb 4

PtPb 4 is a type II superconductor with a bulk critical temperature T c ≈ 3 K and an upper critical field of H c2 = 0.36 T. PtPb 4 is related to non-superconducting PtSn 4 , which presents nodal arc states at the surface. Here, we measure the superconducting density of states of PtPb 4 using millikelvin Scanning Tunneling Microscopy (STM). We observe a fully opened superconducting gap of Δ = 0.48 meV similar to expectations from Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer (BCS) theory (Δ 0 = 1.76k B T c = 0.49 meV). Measurements under magnetic fields applied perpendicular to the surface show a spatially inhomogeneous gap structure, presenting superconducting signatures at fields as high as 1.5 T, significantly above H c2 = 0.36 T. On some locations, we find that the superconducting density of states does not vanish above T c . We can find signatures of a superconducting gap up to 5 K. We discuss possible reasons for the observation of superconducting properties above T c and H c2 , emphasizing the role played by structural defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unveiling the microstructural evolution of carbon fibers derived from polyamide-6

Polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fibers have dominated the industry for decades, but the high cost of polyacrylonitrile has prevented the widespread adoption of carbon fiber in high-volume structural applications. As such, a significant amount of research has been dedicated to finding an alternative, low-cost carbon fiber precursor. In this work, carbon fibers were produced from polyamide-6 using metal salt impregnation and a thermo-oxidative stabilization step. To gain further insight into the carbonization process and microstructural transformation, the morphologies, crystallinities, elemental compositions, and thermal stabilities of the fibers were characterized at various stages of processing. The stabilization step resulted in a significant increase in carbon yield, indicating a dramatic increase in thermal stability. This is due to the crosslinking of polyamide-6 chains, which was confirmed by functional group analysis. The crystallinity of the fibers was also significantly altered during processing, as the produced carbon fibers consisted of pseudo-amorphous carbon with two distinct regions of metal salt impregnation. Finally, the findings and microstructural evolution mechanisms provide guidelines for further research into carbon fiber produced from polyamide-6.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Gurgel, Angelo Costa↗
DOE OSTI2020

What matters the most? Understanding individual tornado preparedness using machine learning

Scholars from various disciplines have long attempted to identify the variables most closely associated with individual preparedness. Therefore, we now have much more knowledge regarding these factors and their association with individual preparedness behaviors. However, it has not been sufficiently discussed how decisive many of these factors are in encouraging preparedness. In this article, we seek to examine what factors, among the many examined in previous studies, are most central to engendering emergency preparedness in individuals particularly for tornadoes by utilizing a relatively uncommon machine learning technique in disaster management literature. Using unique survey data, we find that in the case of tornado preparedness the most decisive variables are related to personal experiences and economic circumstances rather than basic demographics. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand and promote individual tornado preparedness behaviors by highlighting the variables most likely to shape tornado preparedness at an individual level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Symmetry-breaking-induced rare fluctuations in a time-delay dynamic system

Inspired by the experimental and numerical findings, we study the dynamic instabilities of two coupled nonlinear delay differential equations that are used to describe the coherent oscillations between the top and bottom boundary layers in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection. By introducing two sensitivity parameters for the instabilities of the top and bottom boundary layers, we find three different types of solutions, namely in-phase single-period oscillations, multi-period oscillations and chaos. The chaos solution contains rare but large amplitude fluctuations. The statistical properties of these fluctuations are consistent with those observed in the experiment for the massive eruption of thermal plumes, which causes random reversals of the large-scale circulation in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection. Finally, our study thus provides new insights into the origin of rare massive eruptions and sudden changes of large-scale flow pattern that are often observed in convection systems of geophysical and astrophysical scales.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-Equilibrium in a Dust-Forming Low-Temperature Plasma: A CARS Study

Dust-forming low-temperature plasmas are versatile systems for the production of nanoparticles with tunable functionalities. While attractive from a materials processing point of view, these systems are inherently complex, with several plasma-induced phenomena determining the properties of the produced materials. Here, we characterize a carbon nanoparticle-forming plasma using coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS), with the primary goal of measuring gas temperature. While gas temperature is typically assumed to be at or slightly above room temperature in these reactors, we measure gas temperatures exceeding 1000 K under typical process conditions. We find a correlation between the gas temperature and the nanoparticle yield, suggesting that the particle nucleation and growth process releases energy within the reaction volume, leading to significant gas heating. In addition, we find that the relaxation of vibrationally excited species at the particle surfaces is a major contributor to their heating. In conclusion, these results underscore the complexity of these systems and the need for their more in-depth characterization using advanced techniques such as CARS.

Basic Plasma Phenomena and Gas Discharges↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical performance bounds for quantum approximate optimization

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has been put forth as a method for near-term quantum computers to solve optimization problems. However, assessments of QAOA performance have mostly focused on small structured problem instances while performance on more general instances is less clear. Here, we numerically simulate QAOA pure state dynamics for every instance of MaxCut on non-isomorphic unweighted graphs with nine or fewer vertices with depth parameters p ≤ 3. We find the approximation ratios and optimized circuit parameters concentrate across graphs of a given size and empirically show increases in concentration as graph size increases. The parameter concentration leads to two median-angle heuristics that overcome difficulties in QAOA parameter optimization and obtain mean approximation ratios within 3% and 0.2% of the optimal. We also analyze the probability to measure an optimal solution and find increasing variations between graphs as depth increases, in stark contrast to the approximation ratios which concentrate as depth increases. Furthermore, the resulting benchmark data set gives empirical bounds for on-going experimental realizations and lays groundwork for theoretical extensions to greater problem sizes and depths where QAOA may prove important for practically relevant problems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying queueing theory to evaluate wait-time-savings of triage algorithms

Abstract In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have made promising impacts in many areas of healthcare. One application is AI-enabled prioritization software known as computer-aided triage and notification (CADt). This type of software as a medical device is intended to prioritize reviews of radiological images with time-sensitive findings, thus shortening the waiting time for patients with these findings. While many CADt devices have been deployed into clinical workflows and have been shown to improve patient treatment and clinical outcomes, quantitative methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings from their deployment are not yet available. In this paper, we apply queueing theory methods to evaluate the wait-time-savings of a CADt by calculating the average waiting time per patient image without and with a CADt device being deployed. We study two workflow models with one or multiple radiologists (servers) for a range of AI diagnostic performances, radiologist’s reading rates, and patient image (customer) arrival rates. To evaluate the time-saving performance of a CADt, we use the difference in the mean waiting time between the diseased patient images in the with-CADt scenario and that in the without-CADt scenario as our performance metric. As part of this effort, we have developed and also share a software tool to simulate the radiology workflow around medical image interpretation, to verify theoretical results, and to provide confidence intervals for the performance metric we defined. We show quantitatively that a CADt triage device is more effective in a busy, short-staffed reading setting, which is consistent with our clinical intuition and simulation results. Although this work is motivated by the need for evaluating CADt devices, the evaluation methodology presented in this paper can be applied to assess the time-saving performance of other types of algorithms that prioritize a subset of customers based on binary outputs.

Thompson, Yee Lam Elim (ORCID:0000000196537707)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Surface-Topography Challenge: A Multi-Laboratory Benchmark Study to Advance the Characterization of Topography

Surface performance is critically influenced by topography in virtually all real-world applications. The current standard practice is to describe topography using one of a few industry-standard parameters. The most commonly reported number is Ra, the average absolute deviation of the height from the mean line (at some, not necessarily known or specified, lateral length scale). However, other parameters, particularly those that are scale-dependent, influence surface and interfacial properties; for example the local surface slope is critical for visual appearance, friction, and wear. The present Surface-Topography Challenge was launched to raise awareness for the need of a multi-scale description, but also to assess the reliability of different metrology techniques. In the resulting international collaborative effort, 153 scientists and engineers from 64 research groups and companies across 20 countries characterized statistically equivalent samples from two different surfaces: a “rough” and a “smooth” surface. The results of the 2088 measurements constitute the most comprehensive surface description ever compiled. We find wide disagreement across measurements and techniques when the lateral scale of the measurement is ignored. Consensus is established through scale-dependent parameters while removing data that violates an established resolution criterion and deviates from the majority measurements at each length scale. Our findings suggest best practices for characterizing and specifying topography. The public release of the accumulated data and presented analyses enables global reuse for further scientific investigation and benchmarking.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

CLARIFYING THE NEXUS BETWEEN LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT AND CIRCULARITY INDICATORS: A SETAC/ACLCA INTEREST GROUP

Purpose Improving the circularity of resources is important to the sustainability of consumer goods. Current research has indicated that circularity practices and circular economy (CE) methods do not always reduce environmental impacts. The aim of this research is to investigate the adoption of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to improve the environmental impacts of circularity practices. Methods As part of the Society for Environmental Toxicology And Chemistry (SETAC) forum, an interest group (IG) on Circularity and LCA was formed in partnership with the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) to tackle methodological and technical issues related to circularity in LCA. The IG’s research approach is summarized in four key steps: defining goals and objectives, literature review and gap analysis, ideation, and experimentation. The twelve active persons within this IG meet monthly and have been divided into four sub-working groups (sub-WGs) so that complementary tasks can be completed concurrently in an effective manner. Each sub-WG meets monthly and reports back to the main group for collaboration and brainstorming to meet the research objectives. Results and discussion First, the sub-WG #1, focusing on the “pool of circularity and LCA-based indicators”, analyzed the complementarity between two of the most used circularity indicators and LCA. Second, the sub-WG #2, working on the “evaluation of CE loops performance through LCA”, built a mind map of pain points that reflect the challenges that the LCA practitioners face when combining LCA with CE approaches. Third, the sub-WG #3, dealing with the “trade-offs between circularity and sustainability”, highlighted key alignments and/or conflicts between circularity and sustainability performance depending on the scope, product, industry, or system of analysis. Fourth, the sub-WG #4, focusing on “business and industrial cases”, plans to leverage the knowledge base developed within this IG to develop use cases documenting the benefits and challenges associated with CE-related loops modeling in LCA. Conclusions The first findings of this SETAC/ACLCA IG provide a state-of-the-art overview of the synergists of LCA methodology and the CE measurement frameworks reported in the literature. To move forward and capitalize on the first findings, one valuable point will be to discuss and provide concrete solutions to the pain points that emerged when considering circularity in LCA. Eventually, the knowledge base and resources created within this IG ultimately aim to support the proper application of LCA for practitioners in CE contexts, and could provide relevant inputs for the ISO Technical Committee ISO/TC 323 working on the upcoming standard for the measurement of CE performance.

Life cycle assessment, circular economy, circulari↗
DOE OSTI2022

Derivation and assessment of regional electricity generation emission factors in the USA

Electricity production is one of the largest sources of environmental emissions - especially greenhouse gases (GHGs) - in the USA. Emission factors (EFs) vary from region to region, which requires the use of spatially relevant EF data for electricity production while performing life cycle assessments (LCAs). Uncertainty information, which is sought by LCA practitioners, is rarely supplied with available life cycle inventories (LCIs). To address these challenges, we present a method for collecting data from different sources for electricity generation and environmental emissions; discuss the challenges involved in agglomerating such data; provide relevant suggestions and solutions to merge the information; and calculate EFs for electricity generation processes from various fuel sources for different spatial regions and spatial resolutions. The EFs from the US 2016 Electricity Life Cycle Inventory (eLCI) are analyzed and explored in this study. We also explore the method of uncertainty information derivation for the EFs. We explore the EFs from different technologies across Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) regions in the USA. We find that for certain eGRID regions, the same electricity production technology may have worse emissions. This may be a result of the age of the plants in the region, the quality of fuel used, or other underlying factors. Region-wise life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) ISO 14040 impacts for total generation mix activities provide an overview of the total sustainability profile of electricity production in a particular region, rather than only global warming potential (GWP). We also find that, for different LCIA impacts, several eGRID regions are consistently worse than the US average LCIA impact for every unit of electricity generated. Here this work describes the development of an electricity production LCI at different spatial resolutions by combining and harmonizing information from several databases. The inventory consists of emissions, fuel inputs, and electricity and steam outputs from different electricity production technologies located across various regions of the USA. This LCI for electricity production in the USA will prove to be an enormous resource for all LCA researchers - considering the detailed sources of the information and the breadth of emissions covered by it.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ionic conductivity optimization of composite polymer electrolytes through filler particle chemical modification

The addition of filler particles to polymer electrolytes is known to increment their ionic conductivity (IC). A detailed understanding of how the interactions between the constituent materials are responsible for the enhancement remains to be developed. A significant contribution is ascribed to an increment of the polymer amorphous fraction, induced by the fillers, resulting in the formation of higher ionic conductivity channels in the polymer matrix. However, the dependence of IC on the particle weight load and its composition on the polymer morphology is not fully understood. This work investigates Li-ion transport in composite polymer electrolytes (CPE) comprising Bi-doped LLZO particles embedded in PEO:LiTFSI matrixes. We find that the IC optimizes for very low particle weight loads (5-10%) and that both its magnitude and the load are required, strongly dependent on the garnet particle composition. Based on structural characterization results and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, a mechanism is proposed to explain these findings. It is suggested that the Li-molar content in the garnet particle controls its interactions with the polymer matrix, resulting at the optimum loads reported, in the formation of high ionic conductivity channels. We propose that filler particle chemical manipulation of the polymer morphology is a promising avenue for the further development of composite polymer electrolytes.

bismuth↗