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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Stand and environmental conditions drive functional shifts associated with mesophication in eastern US forests

There is a growing body of evidence that mesic tree species are increasing in importance across much of the eastern US. This increase is often observed in tandem with a decrease in the abundance and importance of species considered to be better adapted to disturbance and drier conditions (e.g., Quercus species). Concern over this transition is related to several factors, including the potential that this transition is self-reinforcing (termed “mesophication”), will result in decreased resiliency of forests to a variety of disturbances, and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning, timber value, and wildlife habitat. Evidence for shifts in composition provide broad-scale support for mesophication, but we lack information on the fine-scale factors that drive the associated functional changes. Understanding this variability is particularly important as managers work to develop site-and condition-specific management practices to target stands or portions of the landscape where this transition is occurring or is likely to occur in the future. To address this knowledge gap and identify forests that are most susceptible to mesophication (which we evaluate as a functional shift to less drought or fire tolerant, or more shade tolerant, forests), we used data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program to determine what fine-scale factors impact the rate (change through time) and degree (difference between the overstory and midstory) of change in eastern US forests. We found that mesophication varies along stand and environmental gradients, but this relationship depended on the functional trait examined. For example, shade and drought tolerance suggest mesophication is greatest at sites with more acidic soils, while fire tolerance suggests mesophication increases with soil pH. Mesophication was also generally more pronounced in older stands, stands with more variable diameters, and in wetter sites, but plots categorized as “hydric” were often highly variable. Our results provide evidence that stand-scale conditions impact current and potential future changes in trait conditions and composition across eastern US forests. We provide a starting point for managers looking to prioritize portions of the landscape most at risk and developing treatments to address the compositional and functional changes associated with mesophication.

Woodbridge, Margaret↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Cognition and Fine Motor Skills Test Batteries: Normative Data and Interdependencies

Space mission success and safety relies upon astronaut functional state. Since spaceflight stressors affect cognitive processing and fine motor skills, NASA requires that measures of performance of these things remain within clinically accepted values (NASA STD 3001). NASA is in the process of developing two test batteries for the assessment of crew cognitive and fine motor skills before, during and after spaceflight. Toward that goal, the current project collected normative scores in 91 “astronaut-like” military and civilian pilots. The Cognition Test Battery (CTB) contains ten sub-tests that measure a range of cognitive abilities. For five of the ten CTB sub-tests, we propose scores to improve the battery’s sensitivity. Among the ten sub-tests, response times were more highly correlated than accuracy scores. Principle component analysis of the correlations revealed that the first response time factor could explain over 40% of the total variance and appeared to represent the tendency of observers to try to respond more quickly. The first accuracy factor (explaining only 20%) gave a high weight to the higher level cognitive sub-tests and a negative weight to tasks associated with motor and lower level cognitive processing. The Fine Motor Skills (FMS) test battery contains four sub-tests (Tracking, Pointing, Tracing, Rotating) performed on an Apple iPad tablet computer. Principle component analysis on the sub-test response time correlations revealed that the first two factors accounted for ~80% of the variance in performance. The first component captured overall speed on all four of the sub-tests. The second factor separated the sub-tasks into two groups (Drag-Point vs Trace-Rotate). Previous work found the first group response times correlated with that of a standard peg board task, while those of the other group did not. Correlations were computed between the first FMS factor and the response time and accuracy scores from each CTB sub-task. Performing fine motor behaviors rapidly was significantly correlated with the ability to perform many of the CTB sub-tests rapidly. This ability cannot be simple motor speed since scores on the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) subtask did not correlate with the ability to perform the other tasks rapidly. Speed on fine motor skills correlated significantly with accuracy on the short-term-memory sub-test. We hypothesize that eye movements, which can be regarded as a fine motor skill, may explain this relationship.

cognition↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source apportionment of VOCs, IVOCs and SVOCs by positive matrix factorization in suburban Livermore, California

Abstract. Gas- and particle-phase molecular markers provide highly specific information about the sources and atmospheric processes that contribute to air pollution. In urban areas, major sources of pollution are changing as regulation selectively mitigates some pollution sources and climate change impacts the surrounding environment. In this study, a comprehensive thermal desorption aerosol gas chromatograph (cTAG) was used to measure volatile, intermediate-volatility and semivolatile molecular markers every other hour over a 10 d period from 11 to 21 April 2018 in suburban Livermore, California. Source apportionment via positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed to identify major sources of pollution. The PMF analysis identified 13 components, including emissions from gasoline, consumer products, biomass burning, secondary oxidation, aged regional transport and several factors associated with single compounds or specific events with unique compositions. The gasoline factor had a distinct morning peak in concentration but lacked a corresponding evening peak, suggesting commute-related traffic emissions are dominated by cold starts in residential areas. More monoterpene and monoterpenoid mass was assigned to consumer product emissions than biogenic sources, underscoring the increasing importance of volatile chemical products to urban emissions. Daytime isoprene concentrations were controlled by biogenic sunlight- and temperature-dependent processes, mediated by strong midday mixing, but gasoline was found to be the dominant and likely only source of isoprene at night. Biomass burning markers indicated residential wood burning activity remained an important pollution source even in the springtime. This study demonstrates that specific high-time-resolution molecular marker measurements across a wide range of volatility enable more comprehensive pollution source profiles than a narrower volatility range would allow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Conservative buffering of approximate nonlinear constraints

In engineering design practice behavior is usually predicted based on some known nominal design. However, when the design is fabricated it will differ from the nominal design because of manufacturing tolerances. In order to generate nominal designs that will still satisfy behavior constraints in the presence of manufacturing tolerances, engineers resort to the use of safety factors, over and above those introduced to account for other uncertainties (e.g., in load conditions, material properties, analysis modeling). The accurate selection of the values of these manufacturing tolerances safety factors is dependent on the capability of the engineer to determine the sensitivity of the critical constraints to changes in the design variables. This process usually leads to overly conservative designs. The task of choosing safety factors is much more difficult in structural synthesis because: (1) it is not known which constraints will be active at the final design, (2) as the design changes during the synthesis process the sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variables also change, and (3) the imposition of the safety factors themselves may change the set of critical constraints. These difficulties can be overcome with the approximation concepts approach to structural synthesis by buffering the approximate constraints with quantities that are related to the design variable tolerances and the accurate sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variable. Designs generated by this approach tend to be feasible but not overly conservative.

Thomas, H. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new upper bound for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting

Abstract The growth factor in Gaussian elimination measures how large the entries of an LU factorization can be relative to the entries of the original matrix. It is a key parameter in error estimates, and one of the most fundamental topics in numerical analysis. We produce an upper bound of for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting — the first improvement upon Wilkinson's original 1961 bound of .

Bisain, Ankit [Department of Mathematics Massachus↗
NASA NTRS1988

Stress concentration around circular hole in a composite material specimen representative of the X-29A forward-swept wing aircraft

The theory of anisotropic elasticity was used to evaluate the anisotropic stress concentration factors of a composite laminated plate containing a small circular hole. This advanced composite material was used to manufacture the X-29A forward swept wing. Observe that the usual isotropic material stress concentration factor is three. However, for composite material, it was found that the anisotropic stress concentration factor is no longer constant, and that the locations of maximum tangential stress points could shift by changing the fiber orientation with respect to the loading axis. The analysis showed that through the lamination process, the stress concentration factor could be drastically reduced, and therefore the structural performance could be improved. Both the mixture rule approach and the constant strain approach were used to calculate the stress concentration factor. The results predicted by the mixture rule approach were about 20 percent deviate from the experimental data. However, the results predicted by the constant strain approach matched the testing data very well. This showed the importance of the inplane shear effect on the evaluation of stress concentration factor for the X-29A composite plate.

Yeh, Hsien-Yang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Ice Crystal Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for the development of icing physics models and simulation validation. This paper presents the analysis of the ice crystal icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled liquid and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a weighing scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized icing conditions. To that end, ice crystal cloud characterization tests were conducted that provided cloud property values at the test section. The ice crystal accretion tests investigated how different test condition parameters impacted ice accretion size, location, and characteristics (such as physical attributes). A key finding was that a sufficiently high surface heat flux at the leading edge can provide a continuous supply of liquid melt to critical accretion zones downstream, resulting in elevated ice mass accretions. Another key finding was that warmer heater settings in critical accretion zones can suppress ice accretion. These findings are consistent with icing behavior observed in full-scale engine icing tests conducted previously at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Test runs investigating the contribution of liquid melt generated at the leading edge found that the melt can be transported downstream to critical accretion regions in two forms, via runback and splash. The form of melt supplied downstream affected accretion behavior and features. Sharkteeth-shaped ice accretions were generated at certain test conditions, a physical attribute that has been observed in full-scale engine icing tests. The ice accretion data will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

ice crystal icing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Ice Crystal Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for the development of icing physics models and simulation validation. This paper presents the analysis of the ice crystal icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled liquid and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a weighing scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized icing conditions. To that end, ice crystal cloud characterization tests were conducted that provided cloud property values at the test section. The ice crystal accretion tests investigated how different test condition parameters impacted ice accretion size, location, and characteristics (such as physical attributes). A key finding was that a sufficiently high surface heat flux at the leading edge can provide a continuous supply of liquid melt to critical accretion zones downstream, resulting in elevated ice mass accretions. Another key finding was that warmer heater settings in critical accretion zones can suppress ice accretion. These findings are consistent with icing behavior observed in full-scale engine icing tests conducted previously at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Test runs investigating the contribution of liquid melt generated at the leading edge found that the melt can be transported downstream to critical accretion regions in two forms, via runback and splash. The form of melt supplied downstream affected accretion behavior and features. Sharkteeth-shaped ice accretions were generated at certain test conditions, a physical attribute that has been observed in full-scale engine icing tests. The ice accretion data will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

ice crystal icing↗
DOE OSTI2023

g-factor engineering with InAsSb alloys toward zero band gap limit

Band gap is known as an effective parameter for tuning the Landé g factor in semiconductors and can be manipulated in a wide range through the bowing effect in ternary alloys. In this work, using the recently developed virtual substrate technique, high-quality InAsSb alloys throughout the whole Sb composition range are fabricated and a large g factor of g≈-90 at the minimum band gap of ~0.1 eV, which is almost twice that in bulk InSb, is found. Further analysis to the zero gap limit reveals a possible gigantic g factor of g≈-200 with a peculiar relativistic Zeeman effect that disperses as the square root of magnetic field. Such a g-factor enhancement toward the narrow gap limit cannot be quantitatively described by the conventional Roth formula, as the orbital interaction effect between the nearly triply degenerated bands becomes the dominant source for the Zeeman splitting. These results may provide insights into realizing large g factors and spin-polarized states in semiconductors and topological materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Risk Analysis Tool for Estimating the Risk of Electrical Failures Due to Human Induced Defects

Aerospace electrical systems are required to withstand and adequately operate in extremely harsh environments that include, for example, high radiation exposure, temperature extremes, intense vibrational stress and drastic temperature cycling. The nature of aerospace electronics also demands high reliability since, with very few exceptions, there is no chance for hardware servicing or repairs. Common risk mitigation techniques for this type of situation are to perform a Reliability Analysis of the system throughout the development cycle, and to use electrical components that are regarded as “high reliability” because of additional controls and requirements applied in their design, manufacturing and testing. Unfortunately, studies have shown that even though these techniques are used, many systems fail to meet mission requirements well before the predicted lifetimes. This paper presents the analysis of failures of electrical parts, experienced during various stages of system development, at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt MD, between the years 2001 and 2013. These components were subjected to qualification, screening and testing in which the goal was to ensure that the components would survive the stresses of the mission. The analysis categorizes failures by part type and failure mechanisms. One of the results of the analysis was the realization that a surprising proportion of failures experienced during system integration and testing were caused by human error (i.e. human induced defect). Further analysis included the determination of root failure mechanisms and any influencing factors contributing to these failures. The major causes of these defects were attributed to electrostatic damage (ESD), electrical overstress (EOS), mechanical overstress (MOS), and thermal overstress (TOS). Finally, the study proposes a risk analysis tool which incorporates these major causes for the failures, termed error-producing conditions (EPCs), and a proportionality factor representing the number of each type of failure that has occurred at the facility under study. These factors are quantified and used to communicate the risk of human induced defects for the assembly, integration and testing of space hardware based on the system’s electrical parts list. The new risk identification can trigger risk-mitigating actions more effectively, based on the presence of component categories or other hazardous conditions that have a history of failure due to human error.

Majewicz, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development - A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study /CLASS/ project

The considered study has been conducted to evaluate the future potential for an advanced air cargo transport. A current operations analysis is discussed, taking into account the traffic structure, modal cost comparisons, terminal operations, containerization, and institutional factors. Attention is also given to case studies, a demand forecast, and an advanced air cargo systems analysis. The effects of potential improvements on reducing costs are shown. Improvement to the current infrastructure can occur from 1978 to 1985 with off-the-shelf technology, which when combined with higher load factors for aircraft and containers, can provide up to a 16 percent reduction in total operating costs and a 15 percent rate reduction. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important to improving the airlines' financial posture as is the anticipated large dedicated cargo aircraft.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration

This paper presents the results of an ongoing study into the linear stability characteristics of the boundary layer flow over the common research model with natural laminar flow (CRMNLF) aircraft configuration. The flow conditions match selected test conditions from a recent wind tunnel experiment in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. Previous work involving parallel stability computations of a boundary layer flow based on the conical flow approximation has shown that the measured onset of laminar-turbulent transition during the experiments can be correlated with the linear amplification of Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) and stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities in the swept wing boundary layer. Here, we examine the effects of the simplifying approximations in both basic state computation and the stability analysis, with the goal of quantifying the resulting changes in the N-factor correlations. Specifically, the basic states are computed by using full Navier-Stokes equations and the stability analysis is performed by using a nonorthogonal coordinate system that allows a clear distinction between planar TS and CF instabilities. Furthermore, the effects of curvature and nonparallel mean flow have been included in the stability computations based on the parabolized stability equations (PSE). The fully turbulent Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) mean flow solutions show good agreement with the measured wall pressure distribution. Viscous-inviscid interactive effects are observed to be important because the shock fronts along the suction surface are influenced by the imposed transition front. The stability results confirm the previous findings related to TS amplification within the inboard region of the wing and the dominance of stationary CF modes in the outboard region. However, given the close proximity of the measured transition front and the dual shock system within the outer part of the wing, the onset of transition may well be shock limited within the outboard region. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at Re MAC = 15 million and AoA = 1.5, 2 degrees; however, the low values of the correlating N-factors at Re MAC = 17.5 million support the hypothesis that the measured transition at the higher Reynolds number may have been strongly influenced by the merging of turbulent wedges that originate from surface imperfections near the leading edge.

Boundary layer transition↗
NASA NTRS2021

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration

This paper presents the results of an ongoing study into the linear stability characteristics of the boundary layer flow over the common research model with natural laminar flow (CRMNLF) aircraft configuration. The flow conditions match selected test conditions from a recent wind tunnel experiment in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. Previous work involving parallel stability computations of a boundary layer flow based on the conical flow approximation has shown that the measured onset of laminar-turbulent transition during the experiments can be correlated with the linear amplification of Tollmien- Schlichting (TS) and stationary crossflow (CF) instabilities in the swept wing boundary layer. Here, we examine the effects of the simplifying approximations in both basic state computation and the stability analysis, with the goal of quantifying the resulting changes in the N-factor correlations. Specifically, the basic states are computed by using full Navier-Stokes equations and the stability analysis is performed by using a nonorthogonal coordinate system that allows a clear distinction between planar TS and CF instabilities. Furthermore, the effects of curvature and nonparallel mean flow have been included in the stability computations based on the parabolized stability equations (PSE). The fully turbulent Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) mean flow solutions show good agreement with the measured wall pressure distribution. Viscous-inviscid interactive effects are observed to be important because the shock fronts along the suction surface are influenced by the imposed transition front. The stability results confirm the previous findings related to TS amplification within the inboard region of the wing and the dominance of stationary CF modes in the outboard region. However, given the close proximity of the measured transition front and the dual shock system within the outer part of the wing, the onset of transition may well be shock limited within the outboard region. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at Re MAC = 15 million and AoA = 1.5, 2 degrees; however, the low values of the correlating N-factors at Re MAC = 17.5 million support the hypothesis that the measured transition at the higher Reynolds number may have been strongly influenced by the merging of turbulent wedges that originate from surface imperfections near the leading edge.

Boundary layer transition↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Analysis of uncertainties in turbine metal temperature predictions

An analysis was conducted to examine the extent to which various factors influence the accuracy of analytically predicting turbine blade metal temperatures and to determine the uncertainties in these predictions for several accuracies of the influence factors. The advanced turbofan engine gas conditions of 1700 K and 40 atmospheres were considered along with those of a highly instrumented high temperature turbine test rig and a low temperature turbine rig that simulated the engine conditions. The analysis showed that the uncertainty in analytically predicting local blade temperature was as much as 98 K, or 7.6 percent of the metal absolute temperature, with current knowledge of the influence factors. The expected reductions in uncertainties in the influence factors with additional knowledge and tests should reduce the uncertainty in predicting blade metal temperature to 28 K, or 2.1 percent of the metal absolute temperature.

Stepka, F. S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper presents the analysis of the supercooled liquid icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled water and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic testing and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location (icing extent), characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗