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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model – Application to realistic N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Photometric galaxy surveys constitute a powerful cosmological probe but rely on the accurate characterization of their redshift distributions using only broad-band imaging, and can be very sensitive to incomplete or biased priors used for redshift calibration. A hierarchical Bayesian model has recently been developed to estimate those from the robust combination of prior information, photometry of single galaxies, and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population. In this work, we extend the method so that it can be applied to real data, developing some necessary new extensions to it, especially in the treatment of galaxy clustering information, and we test it on realistic simulations. After marginalizing over the mapping between the clustering estimator and the actual density distribution of the sample galaxies, and using prior information from a small patch of the survey, we find the incorporation of clustering information with photo-z’s tightens the redshift posteriors and overcomes biases in the prior that mimic those happening in spectroscopic samples. The method presented here uses all the information at hand to reduce prior biases and incompleteness. Even in cases where we artificially bias the spectroscopic sample to induce a shift in mean redshift of $\Delta \bar{z} \approx 0.05,$ the final biases in the posterior are $\Delta \bar{z} \lesssim 0.003.$ This robustness to flaws in the redshift prior or training samples would constitute a milestone for the control of redshift systematic uncertainties in future weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Weak magnetic fields and solar irradiance variations

NOAA active region 5643 was observed from August 17 to 21, 1989. Sets of video spectra-spectroheliograms including the Fe I line at 6302.5 A were made at least daily with the San Fernando Observatory 28 cm vacuum telescope and vacuum spectroheliograph. These give simultaneous, co-registered digital images representing monochromatic continuum intensity, line core intensity and line-of-sight magnetic field. Three different criteria are used to define the pixels representing the quiet sun and the facular portions of the images. These criteria are the magnetic field strength, the line core intensity, and the distribution of continuum intensities. Each of these definition schemes is used to estimate the irradiance change due to facular emission. The magnetic field and the continuum intensity distribution definitions give estimates which agree closely. The line core intensity definition leads to larger estimates of the facular irradiance contribution. Some model-dependent investigations of the contrasts and sizes of individual facular elements also are presented.

Lawrence, J. K.↗

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗

Multi-frequency Scatter Broadening Evolution of Pulsars. I

We present multi-wavelength scatter broadening observations of 47 pulsars made with the Giant Metre-wave Radio Telescope (GMRT), Ooty Radio Telescope (ORT), and Long Wavelength Array (LWA). The GMRT observations were made in the phased array mode at 148, 234, and 610 MHz and the ORT observations at 327 MHz. The LWA data sets were obtained from the LWA pulsar data archive. The broadening of each pulsar as a function of observing frequency provides the frequency scaling index, α. The estimations of α have been obtained for 39 pulsars and include entirely new estimates for 31 pulsars. This study increases the total sample of pulsars available with α estimates by ∼50%. The overall distribution of α with the dispersion measure (DM) of the pulsar shows interesting variations, which are consistent with earlier studies. However, for a given value of DM, a range of α values are observed, indicating the characteristic turbulence along each line of sight. For each pulsar, the estimated level of turbulence, C{sub n{sub e}{sup 2}}, has also been compared with α and DM. Additionally, we compare the distribution of α with the theoretically predicted model to infer the general characteristics of the ionized interstellar medium. Nearly 65% of the pulsars show a flatter index (i.e., α<4.4) than that expected from the Kolmogorov turbulence model. Moreover, the group of pulsars with flatter indices is typically associated with an enhanced value of C{sub n{sub e}{sup 2}} compared to those with steeper indices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Differentiable stochastic halo occupation distribution

ABSTRACT In this work, we demonstrate how differentiable stochastic sampling techniques developed in the context of deep reinforcement learning can be used to perform efficient parameter inference over stochastic, simulation-based, forward models. As a particular example, we focus on the problem of estimating parameters of halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that are used to connect galaxies with their dark matter haloes. Using a combination of continuous relaxation and gradient re-parametrization techniques, we can obtain well-defined gradients with respect to HOD parameters through discrete galaxy catalogue realizations. Having access to these gradients allows us to leverage efficient sampling schemes, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and greatly speed up parameter inference. We demonstrate our technique on a mock galaxy catalogue generated from the Bolshoi simulation using a standard HOD model and find near-identical posteriors as standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with an increase of ∼8× in convergence efficiency. Our differentiable HOD model also has broad applications in full forward model approaches to cosmic structure and cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Minimum local distance density estimation

We present a local density estimator based on first-order statistics. To estimate the density at a point, $x$, the original sample is divided into subsets and the average minimum sample distance to $x$ over all such subsets is used to define the density estimate at $x$. The tuning parameter is thus the number of subsets instead of the typical bandwidth of kernel or histogram-based density estimators. The proposed method is similar to nearest-neighbor density estimators but it provides smoother estimates. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this minimum sample distance statistic to study globally optimal values for the number and size of the subsets. Simulations are used to illustrate and compare the convergence properties of the estimator. The results show that the method provides good estimates of a wide variety of densities without changes of the tuning parameter, and that it offers competitive convergence performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Approximation for Horizontal Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

The effect of horizontal photon transport within real-world clouds can be of consequence to remote sensing problems based on plane-parallel cloud models. An analytic approximation for the root-mean-square horizontal displacement of reflected and transmitted photons relative to the incident cloud-top location is derived from random walk theory. The resulting formula is a function of the average number of photon scatterings, and particle asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedo. In turn, the average number of scatterings can be determined from efficient adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures. The approximation is applied to liquid water clouds for typical remote sensing solar spectral bands, involving both conservative and non-conservative scattering. Results compare well with Monte Carlo calculations. Though the emphasis is on horizontal photon transport in terrestrial clouds, the derived approximation is applicable to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem. The complete horizontal transport probability distribution can be described with an analytic distribution specified by the root-mean-square and average displacement values. However, it is shown empirically that the average displacement can be reasonably inferred from the root-mean-square value. An estimate for the horizontal transport distribution can then be made from the root-mean-square photon displacement alone.

Plantnick, Steven↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. Using GHEDesigner, a lookup table was created to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on agent energy bills. This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of different costing and pricing future scenarios. While the code is still under development and nationwide simulations are ongoing, initial results for two states are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts and considering multiple costing scenarios.

ambient temperature loop↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modelling and Algorithm Development

The Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) is being developed as part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) project. The MEADS project involves installing an array of seven pressure transducers linked to ports on the MSL forebody to record the surface pressure distribution during atmospheric entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the total pressure, dynamic pressure, Mach number, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. Secondary objectives are to estimate atmospheric winds by coupling the pressure measurements with the on-board Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data. This paper provides details of the algorithm development, MEADS system performance based on calibration, and uncertainty analysis for the aerodynamic and atmospheric quantities of interest. The work presented here is part of the MEDLI performance pre-flight validation and will culminate with processing flight data after Mars entry in 2012.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

The Arrow of Time in the Collapse of Collisionless Self-gravitating Systems: Non-validity of the Vlasov–Poisson Equation during Violent Relaxation

The collapse of a collisionless self-gravitating system, with the fast achievement of a quasi-stationary state, is driven by violent relaxation, with a typical particle interacting with the time-changing collective potential. It is traditionally assumed that this evolution is governed by the Vlasov–Poisson equation, in which case entropy must be conserved. We run N-body simulations of isolated self-gravitating systems, using three simulation codes, NBODY-6 (direct summation without softening), NBODY-2 (direct summation with softening), and GADGET-2 (tree code with softening), for different numbers of particles and initial conditions. At each snapshot, we estimate the Shannon entropy of the distribution function with three different techniques: Kernel, Nearest Neighbor, and EnBiD. For all simulation codes and estimators, the entropy evolution converges to the same limit as N increases. During violent relaxation, the entropy has a fast increase followed by damping oscillations, indicating that violent relaxation must be described by a kinetic equation other than the Vlasov–Poisson equation, even for N as large as that of astronomical structures. This indicates that violent relaxation cannot be described by a time-reversible equation, shedding some light on the so-called “fundamental paradox of stellar dynamics.” The long-term evolution is well-described by the orbit-averaged Fokker–Planck model, with Coulomb logarithm values in the expected range 10--12. By means of NBODY-2, we also study the dependence of the two-body relaxation timescale on the softening length. The approach presented in the current work can potentially provide a general method for testing any kinetic equation intended to describe the macroscopic evolution of N-body systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impacts of Distributed Speed Harmonization and Optimal Maneuver Planning on Multi-Lane Roads

A commonly proposed method for improving traffic flow on freeways is speed harmonization. The effectiveness of current speed harmonization approaches, such as variable speed limits, is extremely reliant on human driver compliance. Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to come to market within this decade, offering the opportunity to eliminate or reduce the reliance on human compliance. However, extending current roadside infrastructure-based approaches of assigning centrally computed harmonization speeds to individual vehicles is, costly. An alternative approach is to have individual vehicles estimate the traffic state on-board and make distributed decisions to achieve the harmonization goal autonomously. In this work, we present a distributed algorithm for estimating the current average speed of traffic. We couple this with a distributed 2D maneuver planning approach. Then, we study the impact on traffic efficiency in terms of energy consumption and travel time at varying CAV penetration rates.

Goulet, Nathan↗

Thermally stimulated iron oxide transformations and magnetic behaviour of cerium dioxide/iron oxide reactive sorbents

The present paper is devoted to detailed study of the magnetically separable sorbents based on a cerium dioxide/iron oxide composite annealed at temperatures T{sub a} = 773 K, 873 K, and 973 K. The X-ray diffraction and high resolution transmission electron microscopy are used to determine the phase composition and microstructure morphology. Mössbauer spectroscopy at room (300 K) and low (5 K) temperatures has contributed to more exact identification of iron oxides and their transformations Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} → γ-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} (ε-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}) → α-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} in dependence on calcination temperature. Different iron oxide phase compositions and grain size distributions influence the magnetic characteristics determined from the room- and low-temperature hysteresis loop measurements. The results are supported by zero-field-cooled and field-cooled magnetization measurements allowing a quantitative estimation of the grain size distribution and its effect on the iron oxide transformations. - Highlights: •Magnetically separable sorbents based on a CeO{sub 2}/Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} composite were investigated. •Microstructure of sorbents was determined by XRD, TEM and Mössbauer spectroscopy. •Magnetic properties were studied by hysteresis loops at room- and low-temperatures. •Phase transitions of iron oxides with increasing annealing temperature are observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

BEEAM (Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model) [SWR-20-107]

Modern high-performance buildings exhibit an increasing number of building loads that use direct current (DC) electricity internally, rather than alternating current (AC), due to the advent of low-cost computing and advanced power electronics. Powering DC devices from the AC grid requires AC/DC power conversion, which introduces energy losses and reduces efficiency. As DC loads proliferate, the cumulative wasted energy associated with hundreds of millions of AC/DC converters has become one of the broadest energy savings opportunities in buildings. DC power distribution systems have been proposed as an elegant and transformative solution to the problem of DC devices. In a DC distribution system, the building's wires carry DC electricity, rather than AC; and a few centralized, highly efficient AC/DC converters replace the many smaller, less efficient converters that serve individual DC loads. Unfortunately, the trade-offs associated with DC distribution systems are not well understood. Reported energy savings associated with DC power distribution differ widely and have not been well validated. The Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) is a Modelica library that simulates the efficiency of building electrical distribution systems using harmonic power flow. BEEAM can model a wide variety of building distribution topologies, including three-phase AC, single-phase AC, unipolar DC, bipolar DC, and hybrid networks under both balanced and unbalanced load conditions. BEEAM accurately models power electronic converter losses, provides granular estimates of losses throughout the distribution system, and properly models efficiency at part load conditions. Users can package BEEAM within a functional mockup unit (FMU), enabling co-simulation with other modeling platform, such as EnergyPlus. In summary, BEEAM provides a tool suite for fair and accurate comparison of the efficiency of building electrical distribution systems, including AC, DC, and hybrid systems.

Frank, Stephen↗

Estimation of Forest Fuel Load from Radar Remote Sensing

Understanding fire behavior characteristics and planning for fire management require maps showing the distribution of wildfire fuel loads at medium to fine spatial resolution across large landscapes. Radar sensors from airborne or spaceborne platforms have the potential of providing quantitative information about the forest structure and biomass components that can be readily translated to meaningful fuel load estimates for fire management. In this paper, we used multifrequency polarimetric synthetic aperture radar imagery acquired over a large area of the Yellowstone National Park (YNP) by the AIRSAR sensor, to estimate the distribution of forest biomass and canopy fuel loads. Semi-empirical algorithms were developed to estimate crown and stem biomass and three major fuel load parameters, canopy fuel weight, canopy bulk density, and foliage moisture content. These estimates when compared directly to measurements made at plot and stand levels, provided more than 70% accuracy, and when partitioned into fuel load classes, provided more than 85% accuracy. Specifically, the radar generated fuel parameters were in good agreement with the field-based fuel measurements, resulting in coefficients of determination of R(sup 2) = 85 for the canopy fuel weight, R(sup 2)=.84 for canopy bulk density and R(sup 2) = 0.78 for the foliage biomass.

Saatchi, Sassan↗

Evaluation of OH Emission for Determining Operation of a Rotating Detonation Engine

This work explores emission spectroscopy of an intermediate species of combustion as a diagnostics for the study of rotating detonation engines (RDEs), and in particular OH* emission in hydrogen/air operation, to evaluate combustion regions and modes. These measurements support the existence of non-ideal combustion before and after the wave passage, which critically impacts the stability and properties of the detonation wave. In addition, these measurements help the identification and understanding of the secondary wave systems that are found to affect the detonation wave, for example by affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of non-ideal combustion. In particular, time-resolved OH* emission was used to estimate the cycle phase-average distribution of the heat release over a detonation wave cycle. The analysis of the representative OH* emission profile, taken to be representative of the phase-average distribution of heat release, support the identification of non-ideal combustion regions in the cycle and the effects secondary waves have on the detonation wave.

Feleo, Alexander↗

The Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM): Status and Recent Applications

Improvements to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) are discussed. Recent results from an August 2006 run of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system that employs LNOM lightning NOx (= NO + NO2) estimates are provided. The LNOM analyzes Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data to estimate the raw (i.e., unmixed and otherwise environmentally unmodified) vertical profile of lightning NOx. The latest LNOM estimates of (a) lightning channel length distributions, (b) lightning 1-m segment altitude distributions, and (c) the vertical profile of NOx are presented. The impact of including LNOM-estimates of lightning NOx on CMAQ output is discussed.

Koshak, William↗