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Deep Learning Coordinate-Free Quantum Chemistry

Computing quantum chemical properties of small molecules and polymers can provide insights valuable to physicists, chemists and biologists when designing new materials, catalysts, biological probes and drugs. Deep learning can compute quantum chemical properties accurately in a fraction of the time required by commonly used methods such as density functional theory (DFT). However, many of these deep learning architectures require energy minimized molecular geometries as input, which is also computationally expensive, and decreasing the reproducibility and throughput of these methods. In this study, we demonstrate that accurate quantum chemical computations can be performed without optimized geometries by operating in the coordinate-free domain using deep learning on graph encodings. Furthermore, we also find that the choice of graph-encoding architecture substantially affects the performance of these methods. The Wave architecture outperforms graph convolution architectures, particularly on complex molecules. Furthermore, the structures of these graph encoding architectures provide an opportunity to probe an important, outstanding question in quantum mechanics: What types of quantum chemical properties can be represented by local-variable models? We find that Wave, a local-variable model, is more accurately calculates quantum chemical properties. Graph convolutional architectures require global variables, and are not as effective as as Wave. We anticipate that coordinate-free, deep-learning models of quantum chemistry will become valuable tools in chemistry and biology, enabling researchers to rapidly screen chemical databases or identify new molecules using automated, de-novo design algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CLAIRE: Enabling Heterogeneous Communication Network Optimization for Robust and Resilient Operations

In this paper, we present the capabilities of the CLAIRE System which provides resilient communications for NASA in presence of interference and congestion for a heterogeneous multi-vendor network. CLAIRE increases mission science data return to improve resource efficiencies and ensures resilience in the unpredictable space environment for NASA missions and communication networks. CLAIRE provides technology / waveform agnostic cognitive control plane that is instantiated at the Application Layer (APP) so that it can ride on NASA’s HDTN bundle protocol or any other protocol stack that is used by the network. The cognitive control plane is instantiated using Heartbeats (HTBTs). CLAIRE is assisted by Wideband UHF-Ka Band RF Sensing that leverages advances in the Direct Digital Transceiver (DDTRX) technology. The Wideband RF Sensing is driven by statistical signal processing and machine learning algorithms. Interference is mitigated using Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). Finally, CLAIRE addresses congestion using spectrum aware packet forwarding algorithm. CLAIRE provides an extensible protocol that allows passing of RF spectrum situational awareness, cross-layer sensing, delay tolerant networking and dynamic spectrum access information that can help with network optimization. Cross-Layer Sensing (CLS) and CLAIRE Decision Engine (CDE) enable spectrum and delay aware packet forwarding and Dynamic Spectrum Access during cases of severe interference.

cognitive communications↗

SAFE-OCC: A novelty detection framework for Convolutional Neural Network sensors and its application in process control

Herein we present a novelty detection framework for Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) sensors that we call Sensor-Activated Feature Extraction One-Class Classification (SAFE-OCC). We show that this framework enables the safe use of computer vision sensors in process control architectures. Emergent control applications use CNN models to map visual data to a state signal that can be interpreted by the controller. Incorporating such sensors introduces a significant system operation vulnerability because CNN sensors can exhibit high prediction errors when exposed to novel (abnormal) visual data. Unfortunately, identifying such novelties in real-time is nontrivial. To address this issue, the SAFE-OCC framework leverages the convolutional blocks of the CNN to create an effective feature space to conduct novelty detection using a desired one-class classification technique. This approach engenders a feature space that directly corresponds to that used by the CNN sensor and avoids the need to derive an independent latent space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SAFE-OCC via simulated control environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA)

One of the greatest challenges in developing new space technology is in navigating the transition from ground based laboratory demonstration at Technology Readiness Level 6 (TRL-6) to conducting a prototype demonstration in space (TRL-7). This challenge is com- pounded by the relatively low availability of new spacecraft missions when compared with aeronautical craft to bridge this gap, leading to the general adoption of a low-risk stance by mission management to accept new, unproven technologies into the system. Also in consideration of risk, the limited selection and availability of proven space-grade components imparts a severe limitation on achieving high performance systems by current terrestrial technology standards. Finally from a space communications point of view the long duration characteristic of most missions imparts a major constraint on the entire space and ground network architecture, since any new technologies introduced into the system would have to be compliant with the duration of the currently deployed operational technologies, and in some cases may be limited by surrounding legacy capabilities. Beyond ensuring that the new technology is verified to function correctly and validated to meet the needs of the end users the formidable challenge then grows to additionally include: carefully timing the maturity path of the new technology to coincide with a feasible and accepting future mission so it flies before its relevancy has passed, utilizing a limited catalog of available components to their maximum potential to create meaningful and unprecedented new capabilities, designing and ensuring interoperability with aging space and ground infrastructures while simultaneously providing a growth path to the future. The International Space Station (ISS) is approaching 20 years of age. To keep the ISS relevant, technology upgrades are continuously taking place. Regarding communications, the state-of-the-art communication system upgrades underway include high-rate laser terminals. These must interface with the existing, aging data infrastructure. The High Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is designed to provide networked store, carry, and forward capability to optimize data flow through both the existing radio frequency (RF) and new laser communications terminal. The networking capability is realized through the Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) protocol, and is used for scheduling data movement as well as optimizing the performance of existing RF channels. HiDRA is realized as a distributed FPGA memory and interface controller that is itself controlled by a local computer running DTN software. Thus HiDRA is applicable to other arenas seeking to employ next-generation communications technologies, e.g. deep space. In this paper, we describe HiDRA and its far-reaching research implications.

DTN↗

Advanced Lithium Ion Venus Explorer (ALIVE)

The COncurrent Multidisciplinary Preliminary Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) Team partnered with the Applied Research Laboratory to perform a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Program study to evaluate chemical based power systems for keeping a Venus lander alive (power and cooling) and functional for a period of days. The mission class targeted was either a Discovery ($500M) or New Frontiers ($750M to $780M) class mission. Historic Soviet Venus landers have only lasted on the order of 2 hours in the extreme Venus environment:temperatures of 460 degrees Centigrade and pressures of 93 bar. Longer duration missions have been studied using plutonium powered systems to operate and cool landers for up to a year. However, the plutonium load is very large. This NIAC study sought to still provide power and cooling but without the plutonium. Batteries are far too heavy but a system which uses the atmosphere (primarily carbon dioxide) and on on-board fuel to power a power generation and cooling system was sought. The resuling design was the Advanced Long-Life Lander Investigating the Venus Environment (ALIVE) Spacecraft (S/C) which burns lithium (Li) with the CO2 atmosphere to heat a Duplex Stirling to power and cool the lander for a 5-day duration (until the Li is exhausted). While it does not last years a chemical powered system surviving days eliminates the cost associated with utilizing a flyby relay S/C and allows a continuous low data rate direct to earth (DTE) link in this instance from the Ovda Regio of Venus. The five-day collection time provided by the chemical power systems also enables science personnel on earth to interact and retarget science - something not possible with an approximately 2-hour spacecraft lifetime. It also allows for contingency operations directed by the ground (reduced risk). The science package was based on that envisioned by the Venus Intrepid Tessera Lander (VITaL) Decadal Survey Study. The Li Burner within the long duration power system creates approximately 14000 W of heat. This 1300 degree Centigrade heat using Li in the bottom "ballast" tank is melted to liquid by the Venus temperature, drawn into a furnace by a wick and burned with atmospheric CO2. The Li carbonate exhaust is liquid at 1300 degrees Centigrade and being denser than Li drains into the the Li tank and solidifies. Since the exhaust product is a dense liquid no "chimney" is required which conserves the heat for the stirling power convertor. The Duplex Stirling provides about 300 W of power and removes about 300 W of heat from the avionics and heat that leaks into the 1-bar-insulated payload pressure vessel kept at 25 degrees Centigrade. The Na K radiator is run to the top of the drag flap.The ALIVE vehicle is carried to Venus via an Atlas 411 launch vehicle (LV) with a C3 of 7 km2/s2. An Aeroshell, derived from the Genesis mission, enables a direct entry into the atmosphere of Venus (-10 degrees Centigrade, 40 g max) and 6 m/s for landing (44 g) using a drag ring. For surface science and communication, a 100 WRF (WebEx Recording Format), X-Band 0.6-meter pointable DTE (Direct-to-Earth) antenna provides 2 kbps (kilobits per second) to DSN (Deep-Space Network) 34-meter antenna clusters.Table 1.1 summarizes the top-level details of each subsystem that was incorporated into the design. Cost estimates of the ALIVE mission show it at approximately $760M which puts it into the New Frontiers class.The ALIVE landed duration is only limited by the amount of Li which can be carried by the lander. Further studies are needed to investigate how additional mass can be carried, perhaps by a larger launcher and larger aeroshell.

Exploration↗

Data Production on Past and Future NASA Missions

Data return is a metric that is commonly publicized for all space science missions. In the early days of the Space Program, this figure was small, and could be described in bits or maybe even megabits. But now, missions are capable of returning data volumes two or three orders of magnitude larger. For example, Voyager 1 and 2 combined produced a little over 5 Terabits of data in 39 years of operation. In contrast, the Cassini mission, launched two decades after Voyager, produced about one and a half times those data volumes in half the time. NISAR, an Earth Science Mission currently in implementation, plans to produce over 28 Petabits of raw data in just 3 years. This means that NISAR will produce about as many data in 30 days as the combined data production of nearly all planetary missions to date. These increases in capability are a result of technology enhancements in two main areas: telecommunications architecture (both space and ground segments) and data storage technology. This paper describes the progression of these two technologies over the course of more than three decades of space missions and provides additional insight into the design of the end-to-end NISAR Data System Architecture. Trends in the data are briefly explored and compared to Moore’s Law which provides only a qualitative model for memory growth but not for data production. In summary, early missions are found to be driven by unrefined processes while later missions, having utilized earlier lessons learned, focus more on improvements to flight and ground capabilities. Data return seems to fall into three categories. First, deep space missions are driven by the large distances that limit data return to the Earth. Next, the orbiter infrastructure around Mars helps these missions generate more data than other deep space spacecraft. Finally, near-Earth missions have the greatest capabilities for the studied metrics due to their close proximity to Earth and the ground network availability.

Xaypraseuth, Peter↗

Evolution of the Lunar Network

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to upgrade its network Infrastructure to support missions for the 21st century. The first step is to increase the data rate provided to science missions to at least the 100 megabits per second (Mbps) range. This is under way, using Ka-band 26 Gigahertz (GHz), erecting an 18-meter antenna for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and the planned upgrade of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-meter network to support the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The next step is the support of manned missions to the Moon and beyond. Establishing an outpost with several activities such as rovers, colonization, and observatories, is better achieved by using a network configuration rather than the current method of point-to-point communication. Another challenge associated with the Moon is communication coverage with the Earth. The Moon's South Pole, targeted for human habitat and exploration, is obscured from Earth view for half of the 28-day lunar cycle and requires the use of lunar relay satellites to provide coverage when there is no direct view of the Earth. The future NASA and Constellation network architecture is described in the Space Communications Architecture Working Group (SCAWG) Report. The Space Communications and Navigation (SCAN) Constellation Integration Project (SCIP) is responsible for coordinating Constellation requirements and has assigned the responsibility for implementing these requirements to the existing NASA communication providers: DSN, Space Network (SN), Ground Network (GN) and the NASA Integrated Services Network (NISN). The SCAWG Report provides a future architecture but does not provide implementation details. The architecture calls for a Netcentric system, using hundreds of 12-meter antennas, a ground antenna array, and a relay network around the Moon. The report did not use cost as a variable in determining the feasibility of this approach. As part of the SCIP Mission Concept Review and the second iteration of the Lunar Architecture Team (LAT), the focus is on cost, as well as communication coverage using operational scenarios. This approach maximizes use of existing assets and adds capability in small increments. This paper addresses architecture decisions such as the Radio Frequency (RF) signal and network (Netcentric) decisions that need to be made and the difficulty of implementing them into the existing Space Network and DSN. It discusses the evolution of the lunar system and describes its components: Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), Earth-based ground stations, Lunar Relay, and surface systems.

Gal-Edd, Jonathan↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2007

Topics covered include; Rapid Fabrication of Carbide Matrix/Carbon Fiber Composites; Coating Thermoelectric Devices To Suppress Sublimation; Ultrahigh-Temperature Ceramics; Improved C/SiC Ceramic Composites Made Using PIP; Coating Carbon Fibers With Platinum; Two-Band, Low-Loss Microwave Window; MCM Polarimetric Radiometers for Planar Arrays; Aperture-Coupled Thin-Membrane L-Band Antenna; WGM-Based Photonic Local Oscillators and Modulators; Focal-Plane Arrays of Quantum-Dot Infrared Photodetectors; Laser Range and Bearing Finder With No Moving Parts; Microrectenna: A Terahertz Antenna and Rectifier on a Chip; Miniature L-Band Radar Transceiver; Robotic Vision-Based Localization in an Urban Environment; Programs for Testing an SSME-Monitoring System; Cathodoluminescent Source of Intense White Light; Displaying and Analyzing Antenna Radiation Patterns; Payload Operations Support Team Tools; Space-Shuttle Emulator Software; Soft Real-Time PID Control on a VME Computer; Analyzing Radio-Frequency Coverage for the ISS; Nanorod-Based Fast-Response Pressure-Sensitive Paints; Capacitors Would Help Protect Against Hypervelocity Impacts; Diaphragm Pump With Resonant Piezoelectric Drive; Improved Quick-Release Pin Mechanism; Designing Rolling-Element Bearings; Reverse-Tangent Injection in a Centrifugal Compressor; Inertial Measurements for Aero-assisted Navigation (IMAN); Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems; Improved Path Planning Onboard the Mars Exploration Rovers; Robust, Flexible Motion Control for the Mars Explorer Rovers; Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation; Fluorine-Based DRIE of Fused Silica; Mechanical Alloying for Making Thermoelectric Compounds; Process for High-Rate Fabrication of Alumina Nanotemplates; Electroform/Plasma-Spray Laminates for X-Ray Optics; An Automated Flying-Insect Detection System; Calligraphic Poling of Ferroelectric Material; Blackbody Cavity for Calibrations at 200 to 273 K; KML Super Overlay to WMS Translator; High-Performance Tiled WMS and KML Web Server; Modeling of Radiative Transfer in Protostellar Disks; Composite Pulse Tube; Photometric Calibration of Consumer Video Cameras; Criterion for Identifying Vortices in High- Pressure Flows; Amplified Thermionic Cooling Using Arrays of Nanowires; Delamination-Indicating Thermal Barrier Coatings; Preventing Raman Lasing in High-Q WGM Resonators; Procedures for Tuning a Multiresonator Photonic Filter; Robust Mapping of Incoherent Fiber-Optic Bundles; Extended-Range Ultrarefractive 1D Photonic Crystal Prisms; Rapid Analysis of Mass Distribution of Radiation Shielding; Modeling Magnetic Properties in EZTB; Deep Space Network Antenna Logic Controller; Modeling Carbon and Hydrocarbon Molecular Structures in EZTB; BigView Image Viewing on Tiled Displays; and Imaging Sensor Flight and Test Equipment Software.

Source record↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Calibration and Performance Measurements for the NASA Deep Space Network Aperture Enhancement Project (DAEP)

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) has recently constructed two new 34-meter antennas at the Canberra Deep Space Communications Complex (CDSCC). These new antennas are part of the larger DAEP project to add six new 34-meter antennas to the DSN, including two in Madrid, three in Canberra and one in Goldstone (California). The DAEP project included development and implementation of several new technologies for the S, X, Ka (26 GHz) and Ka (32 GHz) -band uplink and downlink electronics, as previously reported. The electronics upgrades were driven by several different considerations, including parts obsolescence, cost reduction, improved reliability and maintainability, and capability to meet future performance requirements. The new antennas are required to support TT&C links for all of the NASA deep-space spacecraft, as well as for several international partners. Some of these missions, such as Voyager 1 and 2, have very limited link budgets, which results in demanding requirements for system G/T performance. These antennas are also required to support radio science missions with several spacecraft, which dictate some demanding requirements for spectral purity, amplitude stability and phase stability for both the uplink and downlink electronics. After completion of these upgrades, a comprehensive campaign of tests and measurements took place to characterize the electronics and calibrate the antennas. Radiometric measurement techniques were applied to characterize, calibrate, and optimize the performance of the antenna parameters. These included optical and RF high-resolution holographic and total power radiometry techniques. These techniques, which are described in the article, resulted in the highest antenna aperture efficiency in the DSN, of 66% achieved, at the highest operating frequency of the antenna, which is Ka-Band (32-GHz). The other measurements and results described include antenna noise temperature, photogrammetry and holography alignment of antenna panels, beam-waveguide mirrors, and subreflector, antenna aperture efficiencies and G/T versus frequency, and antenna pointing models. The first antenna (DSS-35) was entered into operations in October, 2014 and the 2nd antenna (DSS-36) in October, 2016. This paper describes the measurement techniques and results of the testing and calibration for both antennas, along with the driving requirements.

Rochblatt, David J.↗

Internship at the Office of the Chief Scientist

The NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Office of the Chief Scientist (OCS) is part of the Center Management. The OCS adds value to the organization by encouraging and facilitating innovation and value to the Agency, Nation, and the scientific community through its well-developed, diverse, and strategically formed charter. The OCS provides the Center with the oversight and advice by facilitating and evaluating the Scientific Innovation Fund (SIF) and promoting science-based research partnerships. Additionally, the Office contributes to to the Agency by organizing annual Summer Series Colloquia, Workshops, and support to the Early Career Network, which allows for international and inter-agency collaborations. Working at the OCS allowed me to further learn about the working of the Office and how the Office engages and provides guidance with rest of the Center and the Agency. As part of my internship, I am working on developing the initial infrastructure required for the organization of the Standardized Distributed Workshop and further developing the layout for the Hibernation Workshop. The Standardized Distributed System workshop will investigate the scope of developing and using standardized distributed systems for a wide range of applications including satellite systems, aerospace-oriented systems, water-based systems, automobiles, and various other robotics applications. The goal of this workshop is to determine the feasibility of developing a standardized distributed system that can be customized for different technological applications, which will enable resource sharing, openness, robustness, and fault tolerance. This workshop will bring together experts from different fields, including satellite operations, unmanned aerial vehicles, aircraft operation and management, and artificial intelligence to provide a global evaluation of the aspects associated with the development and adoption of distributed systems. The workshop will also guide the participants through state of the art distributed systems, discuss some of the challenges in designing control systems with a distributed structure, and consider the future of distributed system based technologies for future applications. Additionally, I am also working on finalizing the details and documentation for the proposed Hibernation Workshop. This workshop will address the phenomenon of hibernation through three major aspects: hibernation on Earth, hibernation in space, and knowledge gaps in the approaches to future deep space exploration. The primary objective of the workshop is to explore the current state of science in the area of hibernation, and as a scientific community, explore the gaps and challenges preventing this scientific field from advancing to the next level. This workshop will consist of presentations, panel discussions, and breakout sessions focused on addressing this scientific field, and bringing experts from educational and commercial sectors together. As a part of my internship report, I will be document the process of planning these workshops and further provide a brief summary of my experience with the 2016 NASA Ames Summer Series and various professional visits.

ISU↗

Using GANs to predict milling stability from limited data

Milling is a key manufacturing process that requires the selection of operating parameters that provide efficient performance. However, the presence of chatter, a self-excited vibration causing poor surface finish and potential damage to the machine and cutting tool, makes it challenging to select the appropriate parameters. To predict chatter, stability maps are commonly used, but their generation requires expensive data, making it difficult to employ these maps in industry. Therefore, there is a pressing need for an approach that can accurately predict stability maps using limited experimental data. This study introduces the new Encoder GAN (EGAN) approach based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that predicts stability maps using limited experimental data. The approach consists of the encoder, generator, and discriminator subnetworks and uses the trained encoder and generator to predict the target stability map. This versatile method can be applied to various tool setups and can accurately predict stability maps with limited experimental data (five to 10 cutting tests) even when there is little information available for unknown parameters. In conclusion, the study evaluates the proposed approach using both numerical data and experiments and demonstrates its superior performance compared to state-of-the-art benchmarks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOx Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

Neural-Network-Enhanced COTSIM: Advancing Predictive Capabilities for Fast DIII-D Simulations

Sustaining fusion reactions in tokamaks requires heating plasma to thermonuclear temperatures while maintaining confinement and stability. Neutral beam injection (NBI) provides heating, current drive, torque, and fueling, while electron cyclotron (EC) waves are widely used for heating and current drive; together, these actuators shape the plasma current, temperature, and density profiles. The control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM), a predictive, control-oriented code, has been enhanced with neural-network surrogates for transport and sources. Turbulent transport is predicted by MMMnet—a neural-network version of the updated multimode model (MMM 9.0.10)—with significantly reduced computation time relative to MMM; neoclassical transport follows the Chang–Hinton model. NUBEAMnet, a surrogate of the Monte Carlo NUBEAM module, predicts beam-driven heating, current, and torque. EC heating and current drive use a control-oriented, empirically scaled source model; plasma resistivity follows the Spitzer formulation; bootstrap current uses the Sauter model. Equilibrium is computed using both prescribed and fixed-boundary solvers (FBSs), and the pedestal structure is modeled with an empirical pedestal model. For a representative DIII-D discharge, COTSIM predicts electron and ion temperature and safety-factor profiles in close agreement with TRANSP predictive and interpretive simulations while extending predictions through the pedestal region to the plasma edge (versus 80% of the minor radius in TRANSP). Furthermore, the equivalent COTSIM simulation runs in under 3 min compared to about 2 h for TRANSP, enabling rapid scenario planning, optimization of tokamak operation, and between-pulse control design.

Control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM)↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗