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DOE OSTI2025

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2024

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-assisted combustion simulations with dynamic submodel assignment using random forests

This investigation outlines a data-assisted approach that employs random forest classifiers for local and dynamic submodel assignment in turbulent-combustion simulations. This method is demonstrated in simulations of a single-element GOX/GCH4 rocket combustor; a priori as well as a posteriori assessments are conducted to (i) evaluate the accuracy and adjustability of the classifier for targeting different quantities of interest (QoIs), and (ii) assess improvements, resulting from the data-assisted combustion model assignment, in predicting target QoIs during simulation runtime. Results from the a priori study show that random forests, trained with local flow properties as input variables and combustion model errors as training labels, assign three different combustion models – finite-rate chemistry (FRC), flamelet progress variable (FPV) model, and inert mixing (IM) – with reasonable classification performance even when targeting multiple QoIs. Applications in a posteriori studies demonstrate improved predictions from data-assisted simulations, in temperature and CO mass fraction, when compared with monolithic FPV calculations. An additional a posteriori data-assisted simulation of a modified configuration demonstrates that the present approach can be successfully applied to different configurations, as long as thermophysical behavior can be represented by the training data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that this data-driven framework holds promise for dynamic combustion submodel assignments in reacting flow simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Causal interaction in high frequency turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface: Structure–function coupling

At the biosphere–atmosphere interface, nonlinear interdependencies among components of an ecohydrological complex system can be inferred using multivariate high frequency time series observations. Information flow among these interacting variables allows us to represent the causal dependencies in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Here, we use high frequency multivariate data at 10 Hz from an eddy covariance instrument located at 25 m above agricultural land in the Midwestern US to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of this complex system using a sequence of DAGs by examining the structural dependency of information flow and the associated functional response. We investigate whether functional differences correspond to structural differences or if there are no functional variations despite the structural differences. We base our analysis on the hypothesis that causal dependencies are instigated through information flow, and the resulting interactions sustain the dynamics and its functionality. To test our hypothesis, we build upon causal structure analysis in the companion paper to characterize the information flow in similarly clustered DAGs from 3-min non-overlapping contiguous windows in the observational data. We characterize functionality as the nature of interactions as discerned through redundant, unique, and synergistic components of information flow. Through this analysis, we find that in turbulence at the biosphere–atmosphere interface, the variables that control the dynamic character of the atmosphere as well as the thermodynamics are driven by non-local conditions, while the scalar transport associated with CO and H 2 O is mainly driven by short-term local conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

MACHO 311.37557.169: A VY Scl star

Abstract Optical surveys, such as the MACHO project, often uncover variable stars whose classification requires follow‐up observations by other instruments. We performed X‐ray spectroscopy and photometry of the unusual variable star MACHO 311.37557.169 with XMM‐Newton in April 2018, supplemented by archival X‐ray and optical spectrographic data. The star has a bolometric X‐ray luminosity of about 1 × 10 32 erg s −1 cm −2 and a heavily absorbed two‐temperature plasma spectrum. The shape of its light curve, its overall brightness, its X‐ray spectrum, and the emission lines in its optical spectrum suggest that it is most likely a VY Scl cataclysmic variable.

Wörpel, Hauke↗

DOE OSTI2021

First detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from TXS 1515–273, study of its X-ray variability and spectral energy distribution

ABSTRACT We report here on the first multiwavelength (MWL) campaign on the blazar TXS 1515–273, undertaken in 2019 and extending from radio to very-high-energy gamma-rays (VHE). Up until now, this blazar had not been the subject of any detailed MWL observations. It has a rather hard photon index at GeV energies and was considered a candidate extreme high-synchrotron-peaked source. MAGIC observations resulted in the first-time detection of the source in VHE with a statistical significance of 7.6σ. The average integral VHE flux of the source is 6 ± 1 per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 400 GeV. X-ray coverage was provided by Swift-XRT, XMM–Newton, and NuSTAR. The long continuous X-ray observations were separated by ∼9 h, both showing clear hour scale flares. In the XMM–Newton data, both the rise and decay time-scales are longer in the soft X-ray than in the hard X-ray band, indicating the presence of a particle cooling regime. The X-ray variability time-scales were used to constrain the size of the emission region and the strength of the magnetic field. The data allowed us to determine the synchrotron peak frequency and classify the source as a flaring high, but not extreme synchrotron-peaked object. Considering the constraints and variability patterns from the X-ray data, we model the broad-band spectral energy distribution. We applied a simple one-zone model, which could not reproduce the radio emission and the shape of the optical emission, and a two-component leptonic model with two interacting components, enabling us to reproduce the emission from radio to VHE band.

Acciari, V. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Alpert multi-wavelets for functional inverse problems: direct optimization and deep learning

Computational engineering models often contain unknown entities (e.g. parameters, initial and boundary conditions) that require estimation from other measured observable data. Estimating such unknown entities is challenging when they involve spatio-temporal fields because such functional variables often require an infinite-dimensional representation. Here, we address this problem by transforming an unknown functional field using Alpert wavelet bases and truncating the resulting spectrum. Hence the problem reduces to the estimation of few coefficients that can be performed using common optimization methods. We apply this method on a one-dimensional heat transfer problem where we estimate the heat source field varying in both time and space. The observable data is comprised of temperature measured at several thermocouples in the domain. This latter is composed of either copper or stainless steel. The optimization using our method based on wavelets is able to estimate the heat source with an error between 5% and 7%. We analyze the effect of the domain material and number of thermocouples as well as the sensitivity to the initial guess of the heat source. Finally, we estimate the unknown heat source using a different approach based on deep learning techniques where we consider the input and output of a multi-layer perceptron in wavelet form. We find that this deep learning approach is more accurate than the optimization approach with errors below 4%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transverse Kinematic Imbalance in MicroBooNE's New nue CC0pi Measurements

Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements require accurate modelling of neutrino interactions. Neutrino beams are not monoenergetic, and the energy of each interaction must instead be modelled using nuclear interaction assumptions. This introduces significant systematic uncertainty into cross section measurements. Effects such as Fermi motion, nuclear correlations, and final-state interactions (FSI) smear the underlying quasi-elastic scattering signal, making it difficult to disentangle genuine quasi-elastic kinematics from nuclear effects across the full range of interaction channels (QE, MEC, RES, DIS) probed in these measurements. Transverse Kinematic Imbalance (TKI) variables, such as $\delta p_T$ and $\delta \alpha_T$, probe this same phase space by exploiting the fact that the incoming neutrino has zero transverse momentum ($\vec{p}_T^{\,\nu} = 0$). Any measured transverse imbalance in the final state therefore arises from nuclear effects rather than from uncertainty in the incident neutrino energy, allowing cross section measurements to select a phase space that is rich in quasi-elastic-like events with minimal contamination from FSI and other nuclear effects, independent of energy reconstruction. Recent unfolded MicroBooNE cross section measurements of electron-neutrino charged-current interactions with zero pions and at least one proton ($\nu_e$ CC0$\pi$, 1eNp0$\pi$) show that several leading nuclear interaction generators (including GENIE variants, NuWro, GiBUU, and NEUT) reproduce the differential cross section in electron energy reasonably well, but consistently struggle to describe the differential cross section in the cosine of the leading proton's angle, yielding lower $p$-values across all seven generators tested. This tension points to a more fundamental, kinematics-driven disagreement between data and generators that is not visible in energy-only cross section observables. This is precisely the regime TKI variables are designed to probe. Following previous TKI cross section measurements with muon-neutrino data in MicroBooNE, this poster presents the case for extending the TKI framework to electron-neutrino cross section measurements as a next step to isolate and characterize the source of the observed generator tension in proton kinematics.

Burridge, Jessica [U. Manchester (main)] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

DOE OSTI2025

The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Data Sets

We propose the first unified objective framework (SyCLoPS) for detecting and classifying all types of low-pressure systems (LPSs) in a given data set. We use the state-of-the-art automated feature tracking software TempestExtremes (TE) to detect and track LPS features globally in ERA5 and compute 16 parameters from commonly found atmospheric variables for classification. A Python classifier is implemented to classify all LPSs at once. The framework assigns 16 different labels (classes) to each LPS data point and designates four different types of high-impact LPS tracks, including tracks of tropical cyclone (TC), monsoonal system, subtropical storm and polar low. The classification process involves disentangling high-altitude and drier LPSs, differentiating tropical and non-tropical LPSs using novel criteria, and optimizing for the detection of the four types of high-impact LPS. A comparison of our labels with those in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) revealed an overall accuracy of 95% in distinguishing between tropical systems, extratropical cyclones, and disturbances. SyCLoPS produces a better TC detection skill compared to the previous algorithms, highlighted by an approximately 6% reduction in the false alarm rate compared to the previous TE algorithm. The vertical cross section composite of the four types of high-impact LPS we detect each shows distinct structural characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate that SyCLoPS is valuable for investigating various aspects of LPSs in climate data, such as the evolution of a single LPS track, patterns of LPS frequencies, and precipitation or wind influence associated with a particular LPS class.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Use of Satellite, Surface Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data to Improve Cloud Base Height and Cloud Base Vertical Velocity Estimation

Cloud base height (CBH) and cloud base vertical velocity (CBVV) are important variables that impact the overall climate in a region as they influence the formulation, longevity, and evolution of clouds. Retrieval of both parameters have long used ground instrumentation (e.g., Doppler lidar (DL), ground base radar); however, retrieving CBH from satellites is particularly challenging given that space-based instruments only observe cloud tops. In this manuscript, CBH is retrieved using a multi-linear regression equation, while CBVV used a random forests model. Both retrievals combine satellite and numerical weather prediction data. The satellite data used are the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite imagery, while measurements of CBH and CBVV include DL and radiosonde data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory. Data from 83 summer days (May-August) in 2018–2021 featuring cumulus clouds forced by solar heating were examined and used to train the models, with years 2022–2023 used for validation. Various spatial domains were defined with one large (2.4° longitude by 2.0° latitude) SGP domain being split into smaller sections (smallest being 0.99° and 0.61° longitude and latitude respectably). CBH and CBVV values obtained from the DL as compared to the models show root mean square errors between 150 and 200 m, with CBVV values between 0.45 and 1 ms -1 . Finally, it was found that the CBH formulation performs well over all domains, while the CBVV retrievals become less accurate due to more turbulence being introduced into the observations as the number of DL stations decreases in the smaller domains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Personalized and uncertainty-aware coronary hemodynamics simulations: From Bayesian estimation to improved multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Non-invasive simulations of coronary hemodynamics have improved clinical risk stratification and treatment outcomes for coronary artery disease, compared to relying on anatomical imaging alone. However, simulations typically use empirical approaches to distribute total coronary flow amongst the arteries in the coronary tree, which ignores patient variability, the presence of disease, and other clinical factors. Further, uncertainty in the clinical data often remains unaccounted for in the modeling pipeline. We present an end-to-end uncertainty-aware pipeline to (1) personalize coronary flow simulations by incorporating vessel-specific coronary flows as well as cardiac function; and (2) predict clinical and biomechanical quantities of interest with improved precision, while accounting for uncertainty in the clinical data. We assimilate patient-specific measurements of myocardial blood flow from clinical CT myocardial perfusion imaging to estimate branch-specific coronary artery flows. Simulated noise in the clinical data is used to estimate the joint posterior distributions of the model parameters using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally, the posterior predictive distribution for the relevant quantities of interest is determined using a new approach combining multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation with non-linear, data-driven dimensionality reduction. This leads to improved correlations between high- and low-fidelity model outputs. Our framework accurately recapitulates clinically measured cardiac function as well as branch-specific coronary flows under measurement noise uncertainty. We observe substantial reductions in confidence intervals for estimated quantities of interest compared to single-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation and state-of-the-art multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods. This holds especially true for quantities of interest that showed limited correlation between the low- and high-fidelity model predictions. In addition, the proposed multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimators are significantly cheaper to compute than traditional estimators, under a specified confidence level or variance. The proposed pipeline for personalized and uncertainty-aware predictions of coronary hemodynamics is based on routine clinical measurements and recently developed techniques for CT myocardial perfusion imaging. The proposed pipeline offers significant improvements in precision and reduction in computational cost.

Bayesian parameter estimation↗

DOE OSTI2022

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗