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DOE OSTI2022

CAFQA: A Classical Simulation Bootstrap for Variational Quantum Algorithms

Classical computing plays a critical role in the advancement of quantum frontiers in the NISQ era. In this spirit, this work uses classical simulation to bootstrap Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs). VQAs rely upon the iterative optimization of a parameterized unitary circuit (ansatz) with respect to an objective function. Since quantum machines are noisy and expensive resources, it is imperative to classically choose the VQA ansatz initial parameters to be as close to optimal as possible to improve VQA accuracy and accelerate their convergence on today’s devices. This work tackles the problem of finding a good ansatz initialization, by proposing CAFQA, a Clifford Ansatz For Quantum Accuracy. The CAFQA ansatz is a hardware-efficient circuit built with only Clifford gates. In this ansatz, the parameters for the tunable gates are chosen by searching efficiently through the Clifford parameter space via classical simulation. The resulting initial states always equal or outperform traditional classical initialization (e.g., Hartree-Fock), and enable high-accuracy VQA estimations. CAFQA is well-suited to classical computation because: a) Clifford-only quantum circuits can be exactly simulated classically in polynomial time, and b) the discrete Clifford space is searched efficiently via Bayesian Optimization. For the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) task of molecular ground state energy estimation (up to 18 qubits), CAFQA’s Clifford Ansatz achieves a mean accuracy of nearly 99% and recovers as much as 99.99% of the molecular correlation energy that is lost in Hartree-Fock initialization. CAFQA achieves mean accuracy improvements of 6.4x and 56.8x, over the state-of-the-art, on different metrics. Here, the scalability of the approach allows for preliminary ground state energy estimation of the challenging chromium dimer (Cr2) molecule. With CAFQA’s high-accuracy initialization, the convergence of VQAs is shown to accelerate by 2.5x, even for small molecules. Furthermore, preliminary exploration of allowing a limited number of non-Clifford (T) gates in the CAFQA framework, shows that as much as 99.9% of the correlation energy can be recovered at bond lengths for which Clifford-only CAFQA accuracy is relatively limited, while remaining classically simulable.

bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model: Disaggregation - 3

This is a followup on the preceding presentation by Crosson and Schamschula. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to disaggregate the microwave measurements to allow comparison with outputs from the hydrological models. Weighted interpolation and Bayesian methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. While remote measurements occur at a large scale, they reflect underlying small-scale features. We can give continuing estimates of the small scale features by correcting the simple 0th-order, starting with each small-scale model with each large-scale measurement using a straightforward method based on Kalman filtering.

Caulfield, John↗

DOE OSTI2016

Scalable posterior approximations for large-scale Bayesian inverse problems via likelihood-informed parameter and state reduction

Two prime bottlenecks to the solution of large-scale Bayesian inverse problems are the scaling of posterior sampling algorithms to high-dimensional parameter spaces and the computational cost of forward model evaluations. However, incomplete or noisy data, the state variation and parameter dependence of the forward model, and correlations in the prior collectively provide useful structure that can be exploited for dimension reduction in this setting—both in the parameter space of the inverse problem and in the state space of the forward model. To this end, we show how to jointly construct low-dimensional subspaces of the parameter space and the state space in order to accelerate the Bayesian solution of the inverse problem. As a byproduct of state dimension reduction, we also show how to identify low-dimensional subspaces of the data in problems with high-dimensional observations. These subspaces enable approximation of the posterior as a product of two factors: (i) a projection of the posterior onto a low-dimensional parameter subspace, wherein the original likelihood is replaced by an approximation involving a reduced model; and (ii) the marginal prior distribution on the high-dimensional complement of the parameter subspace. We introduce and compare several strategies for constructing these subspaces using only a limited number of forward and adjoint model simulations. The resulting posterior approximations can rapidly be characterized using standard sampling techniques, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. Two numerical examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our approach: inversion of an integral equation in atmospheric remote sensing, where the data dimension is very high; and the inference of a heterogeneous transmissivity field in a groundwater system, which involves a partial differential equation forward model with high dimensional state and parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification in (α,n) neutron source calculations for an oxide matrix

Here we present a methodology to propagate nuclear data covariance information in neutron source calculations from (α,n) reactions. The approach is applied to estimate the uncertainty in the neutron generation rates for uranium oxide fuel types due to uncertainties on 1) 17,18 O( α,n) reaction cross sections and 2) uranium and oxygen stopping power cross sections. The procedure to generate reaction cross section covariance information is based on the Bayesian fitting method implemented in the R-matrix SAMMY code. The evaluation methodology uses the Reich-Moore approximation to fit the 17,18 O(α,n) reaction cross-sections in order to derive a set of resonance parameters and a related covariance matrix that is then used to calculate the energydependent cross section covariance matrix. The stopping power cross sections and related covariance information for uranium and oxygen were obtained by the fit of stopping power data in the -energy range of 1 keV up to 12 MeV. Cross section perturbation factors based on the covariance information relative to the evaluated 17,18 O( α,n) reaction cross sections, as well as uranium and oxygen stopping power cross sections, were used to generate a varied set of nuclear data libraries used in SOURCES4C and ORIGEN for inventory and source term calculations. The set of randomly perturbed output (α,n) source responses, provide the mean values and standard deviations of the calculated responses reflecting the uncertainties in nuclear data used in the calculations. Lastly, the results and related uncertainties are compared with experiment thick target (α,n) yields for uranium oxide.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the morphology of the gamma-ray galactic centre excess

ABSTRACT The characteristics of the galactic centre excess (GCE) emission observed in gamma-ray energies – especially the morphology of the GCE – remain a hotly debated subject. The manner in which the dominant diffuse gamma-ray background is modelled has been claimed to have a determining effect on the preferred morphology. In this work, we compare two distinct approaches to the galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission background: the first approach models this emission through templates calculated from a sequence of well-defined astrophysical assumptions, while the second approach divides surrogates for the background gamma-ray emission into cylindrical galactocentric rings with free independent normalizations. At the latitudes that we focus on, we find that the former approach works better, and that the overall best fit is obtained for an astrophysically motivated fit when the GCE follows the morphology expected of dark matter annihilation. Quantitatively, the improvement compared with the best ring-based fits is roughly 6500 in the χ2 and roughly 4000 in the log of the Bayesian evidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerated Nuclear-physics Parameter Estimation from Binary Neutron Star Mergers: Emulators for the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff Equations

Abstract Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron-star (BNS) mergers have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the nuclear equation of state (EOS) and the fundamental interactions that determine its properties. However, Bayesian parameter estimation frameworks do not typically sample over microscopic nuclear-physics parameters that determine the EOS. One of the major hurdles in doing so is the computational cost involved in solving the neutron-star structure equations, known as the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations. In this paper, we explore approaches to emulating solutions for the TOV equations: multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), Gaussian processes, and a data-driven variant of the reduced basis method (RBM). We implement these emulators for three different parameterizations of the nuclear EOS, each with a different degree of complexity represented by the number of model parameters. We find that our MLP-based emulators are generally more accurate than the other two algorithms, whereas the RBM results in the largest speedup with respect to the full high-fidelity TOV solver. We employ these emulators for a simple parameter inference using a potentially loud BNS observation and show that the posteriors predicted by our emulators are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the full TOV solver.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autotuning PolyBench benchmarks with LLVM Clang/Polly loop optimization pragmas using Bayesian optimization

Here, we develop a ytopt autotuning framework that leverages Bayesian optimization to explore the parameter space search and compare four different supervised learning methods within Bayesian optimization and evaluate their effectiveness. We select six of the most complex PolyBench benchmarks and apply the newly developed LLVM Clang/Polly loop optimization pragmas to the benchmarks to optimize them. We then use the autotuning framework to optimize the pragma parameters to improve their performance. The experimental results show that our autotuning approach outperforms the other compiling methods to provide the smallest execution time for the benchmarks syr2k, 3mm, heat-3d, lu, and covariance with two large datasets in 200 code evaluations for effectively searching the parameter spaces with up to 170,368 different configurations. We find that the Floyd-Warshall benchmark did not benefit from autotuning. To cope with this issue, we provide some compiler option solutions to improve the performance. Then we present loop autotuning without a user's knowledge using a simple mctree autotuning framework to further improve the performance of the Floyd-Warshall benchmark. We also extend the ytopt autotuning framework to tune a deep learning application.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗

DOE OSTI2013

GRID-BASED EXPLORATION OF COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER SPACE WITH SNAKE

We present a fully parallelized grid-based parameter estimation algorithm for investigating multidimensional likelihoods called Snake, and apply it to cosmological parameter estimation. The basic idea is to map out the likelihood grid-cell by grid-cell according to decreasing likelihood, and stop when a certain threshold has been reached. This approach improves vastly on the 'curse of dimensionality' problem plaguing standard grid-based parameter estimation simply by disregarding grid cells with negligible likelihood. The main advantages of this method compared to standard Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods include (1) trivial extraction of arbitrary conditional distributions; (2) direct access to Bayesian evidences; (3) better sampling of the tails of the distribution; and (4) nearly perfect parallelization scaling. The main disadvantage is, as in the case of brute-force grid-based evaluation, a dependency on the number of parameters, N{sub par}. One of the main goals of the present paper is to determine how large N{sub par} can be, while still maintaining reasonable computational efficiency; we find that N{sub par} = 12 is well within the capabilities of the method. The performance of the code is tested by comparing cosmological parameters estimated using Snake and the WMAP-7 data with those obtained using CosmoMC, the current standard code in the field. We find fully consistent results, with similar computational expenses, but shorter wall time due to the perfect parallelization scheme.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inverse modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kβ X-ray Emission Spectra Analysis Using Bayesian Optimization

The Kβ X-ray emission spectrum of 3 d transition metals is rich with electronic and structural information due to strong exchange interactions with the valence shell of the metal, and has become crucial for understanding their spin and oxidation states. The spectrum is commonly treated using crystal-field multiplet theory, a semi-empirical theory that uses tunable parameters to control the strength of the effects present in X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). However, determining the experimental values of these parameters remains a challenge. We present a methodology that applies Bayesian optimization to crystal-field multiplet theory to determine parameter values. The algorithm is tested on the X-ray emission spectra of a collection of Mn, Co, and Ni oxides. We are able to find optimal values for the four most impactful parameters: Slater−Condon reduction factors F dd , F pd , and G pd , and crystal field splitting 10 Dq . The algorithm produces significantly improved accuracy compared to current analysis methods, and probes interparameter dependencies by modeling the error landscape. This advancement enhances XES analysis by offering an approach of obtaining quantitative electronic structural information on 3 d transition metal valence shells, facilitating applications across various scientific fields.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS1992

Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

Wohlman, Richard A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-fidelity equations of state and transport coefficient datasets for pulsed-power applications

Reliably simulating experiments relevant to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) requires a detailed description of material properties across a wide range of conditions. Such properties include the equations of state, charged-particle transport coefficients, and optical properties like the opacity. Together, these properties make up the material models used in radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of nuclear fusion experiments. Many of these models do not incorporate uncertainties in the data used to produce them. It is unknown whether these uncertainties significantly impact the interpretation of simulation results and diagnostics. The purpose of this work is to quantify how such uncertainties impact simulations of pulsed-power experiments. We accomplished this task by first assessing discrepancies between approaches used to generate the data. This included bringing together members of the high-energy-density community spanning the three NNSA laboratories and multiple universities. Then, using these data, we developed a general framework that systematically incorporates physical uncertainties within the material models suitable for uncertainty quantification analyses. The framework utilizes machine learning, Bayesian inference, and incorporates multi-fidelity datasets. We demonstrated the framework by quantifying the impact that material model uncertainties have on simulations of pulsed-power experiments underway on Z at Sandia National Laboratories. As a result of this work, we discovered that modest uncertainties in material models (roughly 20%) correspond to significant uncertainties in the outputs from simulations. Our framework has enabled rapid construction of material models through an automated procedure and allows for the generation of material models of interest to the NNSA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Deep Learning Model Architectures for Point-of-Care Ultrasound Diagnostics

Point-of-care ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for patient triage during trauma for diagnosing injuries and prioritizing limited medical evacuation resources. Specifically, an eFAST exam evaluates if there are free fluids in the chest or abdomen but this is only possible if ultrasound scans can be accurately interpreted, a challenge in the pre-hospital setting. In this effort, we evaluated the use of artificial intelligent eFAST image interpretation models. Widely used deep learning model architectures were evaluated as well as Bayesian models optimized for six different diagnostic models: pneumothorax (i) B- or (ii) M-mode, hemothorax (iii) B- or (iv) M-mode, (v) pelvic or bladder abdominal hemorrhage and (vi) right upper quadrant abdominal hemorrhage. Models were trained using images captured in 27 swine. Using a leave-one-subject-out training approach, the MobileNetV2 and DarkNet53 models surpassed 85% accuracy for each M-mode scan site. The different B-mode models performed worse with accuracies between 68% and 74% except for the pelvic hemorrhage model, which only reached 62% accuracy for all model architectures. These results highlight which eFAST scan sites can be easily automated with image interpretation models, while other scan sites, such as the bladder hemorrhage model, will require more robust model development or data augmentation to improve performance. With these additional improvements, the skill threshold for ultrasound-based triage can be reduced, thus expanding its utility in the pre-hospital setting.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions

Abstract. Managing water resources in a complex adaptive natural–human system is a challenge due to the difficulty of modeling human behavior under uncertain risk perception. The interaction between human-engineered systems and natural processes needs to be modeled explicitly with an approach that can quantify the influence of incomplete/ambiguous information on decision-making processes. In this study, we two-way coupled an agent-based model (ABM) with a river-routing and reservoir management model (RiverWare) to address this challenge. The human decision-making processes is described in the ABM using Bayesian inference (BI) mapping joined with a cost–loss (CL) model (BC-ABM). Incorporating BI mapping into an ABM allows an agent's psychological thinking process to be specified by a cognitive map between decisions and relevant preceding factors that could affect decision-making. A risk perception parameter is used in the BI mapping to represent an agent's belief on the preceding factors. Integration of the CL model addresses an agent's behavior caused by changing socioeconomic conditions. We use the San Juan River basin in New Mexico, USA, to demonstrate the utility of this method. The calibrated BC-ABM–RiverWare model is shown to capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes. The results suggest that the proposed BC-ABM framework provides an improved representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs that do not take risk perception into account. Future studies will focus on modifying the BI mapping to consider direct agents' interactions, up-front cost of agent's decision, and upscaling the watershed ABM to the regional scale.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design optimization of an ethanol heavy-duty engine using design of experiments and bayesian optimization

Diesel-fueled engines still hold a large market share in the medium and heavy-duty transportation sector. However, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the strict emission regulations are leading engine manufacturers to seek cleaner alternatives without a compromise in performance. Alcohol-based fuels, such as ethanol, offer a promising alternative to diesel fuel in meeting regulatory demands. Ethanol provides cleaner combustion and lower levels of soot due to its chemical properties, in particular its lower level of carbon content. In addition, the stoichiometric operating conditions of alcohol fueled engines enable the mitigation of NOx emissions in aftertreatment stage. With the promise of retrofitting diesel engines to run on ethanol to reduce emissions, the thermal efficiency of these engines remains the primary optimization target. In order to find the optimal ethanol-fueled engine design that maximizes the thermal efficiency, a large design space needs to be investigated using engineering tools. In this study, previous research by the authors on optimizing the design of a single-cylinder ethanol-fueled engine was extended to explore the design space for a heavy-duty multi-cylinder engine configuration. A heavy-duty engine setup with multiple operating conditions at different engine speeds and loads were considered. A design optimization analysis was performed to identify the potential designs that maximize the indicated thermal efficiency in an ethanol-fueled compression ignition engine. First, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the engine was validated using experimental data for four drive cycle points. Using a design of experiments (DoE) approach and a parameterized piston bowl geometry, the model was then exercised to explore the relationship among geometric features of the piston bowl and spray targeting angle and indicated thermal efficiency across all tested operating conditions. After evaluating 165~candidate designs, a piston bowl geometry was identified that yielded an increase between 1.3 to 2.2 percentage points in indicated thermal efficiency for all tested conditions, while satisfying the operational design constraints for peak pressure and maximum pressure rise rate. The increased performance was attributed to enhanced mixing that led to the formation of a more homogeneous distribution of in-cylinder temperature and equivalence ratio, higher combustion temperatures, and shorter combustion duration. Finally, a Bayesian optimization (BOpt) analysis was employed to find the optimal piston bowl geometry with a fixed spray injector angle for one of the operating conditions. Using BOpt, a piston candidate was identified that resulted in a 1.9~percentage point increase in thermal efficiency from the baseline design, yet only required 65\% of the design samples investigated using the DoE approach.

Tekgul, Bulut↗