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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

An adaptive approach to machine learning for compact particle accelerators

Abstract Machine learning (ML) tools are able to learn relationships between the inputs and outputs of large complex systems directly from data. However, for time-varying systems, the predictive capabilities of ML tools degrade if the systems are no longer accurately represented by the data with which the ML models were trained. For complex systems, re-training is only possible if the changes are slow relative to the rate at which large numbers of new input-output training data can be non-invasively recorded. In this work, we present an approach to deep learning for time-varying systems that does not require re-training, but uses instead an adaptive feedback in the architecture of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN). The feedback is based only on available system output measurements and is applied in the encoded low-dimensional dense layers of the encoder-decoder CNNs. First, we develop an inverse model of a complex accelerator system to map output beam measurements to input beam distributions, while both the accelerator components and the unknown input beam distribution vary rapidly with time. We then demonstrate our method on experimental measurements of the input and output beam distributions of the HiRES ultra-fast electron diffraction (UED) beam line at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and showcase its ability for automatic tracking of the time varying photocathode quantum efficiency map. Our method can be successfully used to aid both physics and ML-based surrogate online models to provide non-invasive beam diagnostics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

Runaway electron beam dynamics at low plasma density in DIII-D: energy distribution, current profile, and internal instability

Parameters of the post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beam in the collisionless background plasma achieved after deuterium injection are investigated in DIII-D. The spatially resolved RE energy distribution function is measured for the first time during the RE plateau stage by inverting hard X-ray bremsstrahlung spectra. It has maximum energy up to 20 MeV and a non-monotonous feature at 5{6 MeV observed only in the core of the beam supporting the possibility of kinetic instabilities. The RE current profile is reconstructed for the first time using the spatially resolved RE energy distribution. It is found to be more peaked than the pre-disruption plasma current, with higher internal inductance, suggesting preferential formation of REs in the core plasma or potentially a radially inward motion of the REs. The accessed relatively low-current (180 kA) RE beam is found stable, likely due to its elevated q profile. From this base stable equilibrium, instability is accessed by ramping the solenoid current. Under a large applied accelerating loop voltage an internal kink mode is observed. The kink mode leads to sawtooth-like relaxation of the RE current profile, but drives no RE loss. Under conditions of a large decelerating voltage, chirping Alfvénic instabilities driven by REs during the RE plateau stage are observed for the first time. The low-frequency (0.1{7 MHz) Alfvénic instabilities, supposedly compressional Alfvén eigenmodes, are found to be correlated with a RE loss signal. Finally, this provides novel plasma conditions to study these instabilities and investigate opportunities to utilize them for RE control. Bifurcated electron cyclotron emission (ECE) spectrum is measured during the collisionless RE plateau, with a break point at ≈100 GHz suggesting resonant absorption of the ECE at low frequencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance Evaluation of Peer-to-Peer Distributed Microgrids Coordination for Voltage Regulation

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a peer-to-peer microgrids coordination algorithm for sub-transmission systems. As distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution system start to show negative impact to the bulk power system, a paradigm shift is needed for transmission planning and operation. Because distribution substations are located far from the sub-transmission system, and it is hard to use traditional centralized control for real-time control and coordination. Thus, distributed control is a natural choice because it requires less communication and central computation. In this paper, each distribution substation is treated as a microgrid, and the peer-to-peer distributed microgrids control is formulated as a real-time optimal power flow problem to reduce the negative impact in sub-transmission systems. A distributed primal-dual optimization algorithm is adopted to solve the problem. Validation of the peer-to-peer algorithm is performed through the simulation of a real-world sub-transmission system composing of many distribution systems with high renewable penetration. Simulation results show that the peer-to-peer algorithm can achieve satisfactory performance (e.g., voltage regulation) in sub-transmission system by coordinating and controlling DERs in distribution systems.

distributed control↗

Performance Evaluation of Peer-to-Peer Distributed Microgrids Coordination for Voltage Regulation: Preprint

This paper presents the performance evaluation of a peer-to-peer microgrids coordination algorithm for sub-transmission systems. As distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution system start to show negative impact to the bulk power system, a paradigm shift is needed for transmission planning and operation. Because distribution substations are located far from the sub-transmission system, and it is hard to use traditional centralized control for real-time control and coordination. Thus, distributed control is a natural choice because it requires less communication and central computation. In this paper, each distribution substation is treated as a microgrid, and the peer-to-peer distributed microgrids control is formulated as a real-time optimal power flow problem to reduce the negative impact in sub-transmission systems. A distributed primal-dual optimization algorithm is adopted to solve the problem. Validation of the peer-to-peer algorithm is performed through the simulation of a real-world sub-transmission system composing of many distribution systems with high renewable penetration. Simulation results show that the peer-to-peer algorithm can achieve satisfactory performance (e.g., voltage regulation) in sub-transmission system by coordinating and controlling DERs in distribution systems.

distributed control↗

Rocket measurements of electrons in a system of multiple auroral arcs

A Nike-Tomahawk rocket was launched into a system of auroral arcs northward of Poker Flat Research Range, Fairbanks, Alaska. The pitch-angle distribution of electrons was measured at 2.5, 5, and 10 keV and also at 10 keV on a separating forward section of the payload. The auroral activity appeared to be the extension of substorm activity centered to the east. The rocket crossed a westward-propagating fold in the brightest band. The electron spectrum was relatively hard through most of the flight, showing a peak in the range from 2.5 to 10 keV in the weaker aurora and below 5 keV in the brightest arc. The detailed structure of the pitch-angle distribution suggested that, at times, a very selective process was accelerating some electrons in the magnetic field direction, so that a narrow field-aligned component appeared superimposed on a more isotropic distribution. It is concluded that this process could not be a near-ionosphere field-aligned potential drop, although the more isotropic component may have been produced by a parallel electric field extending several thousand kilometers along the field line above the ionosphere.

Boyd, J. S.↗

A semi-analytic approach to the self induced motion of vortex sheets

The rolling up of the trailing vortex sheet produced by a wing of finite span was calculated as a series expansion in time. For a vorticity distribution corresponding to a wing with cusped tips, the shape of the sheet was found by summing the series using Pade approximants. The sheet remains analytic for some time but ultimately develops an exponential spiral at the tips. The centroid of vorticity was conserved to high accuracy.

Schwartz, L. W.↗

A semi-analytic approach to the self-induced motion of vortex sheets

The rolling-up of the trailing vortex sheet produced by a wing of finite span is calculated as a series expansion in time. For a vorticity distribution corresponding to a wing with cusped tips, the shape of the sheet is found by summing the series using Pade approximants. The sheet remains analytic for some time but ultimately develops an exponential spiral at the tips. The centroid of vorticity is conserved to high accuracy.

Schwartz, L. W.↗

Quench protection for high-temperature superconductor cables using active control of current distribution

Superconducting magnets of future fusion reactors are expected to rely on composite high-temperature superconductor (HTS) cable conductors. In presently used HTS cables, current sharing between components is limited due to poorly defined contact resistances between superconducting tapes or by design. The interplay between contact and termination resistances is the defining factor for power dissipation in these cables and ultimately defines their safe operational margins. However, the current distribution between components along the composite conductor and inside its terminations is a priori unknown, and presently, no means are available to actively tune current flow distribution in real-time to improve margins of quench protection. Also, the lack of ability to electrically probe individual components makes it impossible to identify conductor damage locations within the cable. In this work, we address both problems by introducing active current control of current distribution between components using cryogenically operated metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect transistors (MOSFETs). We demonstrate through simulation and experiments how real-time current controls can help to drastically reduce heat dissipation in a developing hot spot in a two-conductor model system and help identify critical current degradation of individual cable components. Finally, prospects of other potential uses of MOSFET devices for improved voltage detection, AC loss-driven active quench protection, and remnant magnetization reduction in HTS magnets are also discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Measurement of the jet mass in hadronic decays of boosted W bosons at 13 TeV and extraction of the W boson mass

The jet mass of W bosons decaying to a quark-antiquark pair is measured in W+jets events from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data used were collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Hadronic decays of W bosons with high momenta produce strongly collimated decay products due to the large Lorentz boost, and are reconstructed as single large-radius jets. These jets have a characteristic substructure that is exploited to distinguish them from the large background of quark- and gluon-initiated jets. The jet mass is computed using the soft-drop algorithm, which suppresses soft wide-angle radiation that leads to a broadening of the jet mass distribution. For the first time, unfolded measurements are presented of the double-differential W+jets cross section as a function of the jet transverse momentum and soft-drop mass. From these distributions, the W boson mass is obtained, with a value of 80.83 ± 0.55 GeV in a scheme with mass-dependent width, achieving the smallest uncertainty available today from an all-jets final state at a hadron collider.

hadron-hadron scattering↗

Peak Reduction in a Residential Community Through Bayesian Optimization of Transactive Control Signals

Daily residential power consumption in aggregate tends to have a large peak that places stress on the distribution system and induces high operational costs. This work shows that coordinated transactive control of noncritical loads within a residential community or microgrid can help to alleviate peak-time stress on the distribution system by flattening the aggregate load curve. Treating the load forecaster as a high-fidelity, expensive black-box function, a new algorithm utilizing Bayesian optimization (BO) is proposed to achieve the best solution under uncertainty with minimal computing effort. The proposed BO algorithm manipulates the shape of the load based on transactive signals sent to each home. The thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) act out of self-interest in response to the given price while maintaining comfort, and the optimizer exploits the thermal energy retention of the homes for the benefit of the community. Simulations confirm consistent neighborhood-level peak power reduction and energy cost savings.

Schomer, Ian↗

Liquid ToF-SIMS revealing the oil, water, and surfactant interface evolution

Bilge water from ships is regarded as a major pollutant in the marine environment. Bilge water exists in a stable oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion form. However, little is known about the O/W liquid–liquid (l–l) interface. Traditional bulk characterization approaches are not capable of capturing the chemical changes at the O/W l–l interface. Although surfactants are deemed essential in droplet formation, their roles in bilge water stabilization have not been fully revealed. We have utilized novel in situ chemical imaging tools including in situ scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and in situ time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to study the evolving O/W interface using a NAVY bilge model for the first time. The droplet size distribution (DSD) does not change significantly without the addition of X-100 surfactants under static or rocking conditions. Both the oil components and the water clusters are shown to evolve over time at the O/W droplet interface by in situ liquid SIMS imaging. Of particular interest to droplet stabilization, the contribution of surfactants to the aged bilge droplets becomes more significant as the droplet size increases. The higher mass surfactant component does not appear on the droplet surface immediately while many lower mass surfactants are solvated inside the droplet. We have provided the first three-dimensional images of the evolving O/W interface and demonstrated that in situ surface chemical mapping is powerful enough to reveal the complex and dynamic l–l interface in the liquid state. Our observational insights suggest that surfactants are important in mediating droplet growth and facilitating effective separation of bilge water emulsion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Why are we still using 3D masses for cluster cosmology?

ABSTRACT The abundance of clusters of galaxies is highly sensitive to the late-time evolution of the matter distribution, since clusters form at the highest density peaks. However, the 3D cluster mass cannot be inferred without deprojecting the observations, introducing model-dependent biases and uncertainties due to the mismatch between the assumed and the true cluster density profile and the neglected matter along the sightline. Since projected aperture masses can be measured directly in simulations and observationally through weak lensing, we argue that they are better suited for cluster cosmology. Using the Mira–Titan suite of gravity-only simulations, we show that aperture masses correlate strongly with 3D halo masses, albeit with large intrinsic scatter due to the varying matter distribution along the sightline. Nonetheless, aperture masses can be measured ≈2–3 times more precisely from observations, since they do not require assumptions about the density profile and are only affected by the shape noise in the weak lensing measurements. We emulate the cosmology dependence of the aperture mass function directly with a Gaussian process. Comparing the cosmology sensitivity of the aperture mass function and the 3D halo mass function for a fixed survey solid angle and redshift interval, we find the aperture mass sensitivity is higher for Ωm and $w_a$, similar for σ8, ns, and $w_0$, and slightly lower for h. With a carefully calibrated aperture mass function emulator, cluster cosmology analyses can use cluster aperture masses directly, reducing the sensitivity to model-dependent mass calibration biases and uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emergency Voltage Regulation in Power Systems via Ripple-Type Control: Preprint

With increasing penetration of volatile renewable generation and cyber-physical disruptions, ensuring safe operation of bulk power systems has become unprecedentedly challenging. Since communication and computational costs restrict centralized system dispatch to be called upon every few minutes; and purely local schemes are shown to be insufficient, distributed controls have been advocated for handling unanticipated system conditions in real time. However, the applicability of distributed control schemes is fundamentally limited by their need for widespread communication and model cognizance. In this con-text, we put forth a hybrid low-communication saturation-driven protocol for the coordination of control agents that are distributed over a physical system and are allowed to communicate with peers over a ‘hotline’ communication network. Under this protocol, when agents observe a constraint violation based on local measurements, they respond locally until their control resources saturate, in which case they send a beacon for assistance to peer agents. The scheme ensures that minor violations are efficiently mitigated via fast local controls, while severe violations may be handled by a collaboration of a relatively small set of agents. We evaluate the performance of this scheme via extensive numerical tests on the IEEE 14-bus test feeder, where agents act upon noisy measurements under diverse scenarios of random load variations and severe low/high voltage events.

distributed control↗

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Time-frequency representation of a highly nonstationary signal via the modified Wigner distribution

A new signal analysis technique called the modified Wigner distribution (MWD) is presented. The new signal processing tool has been very successful in determining time frequency representations of highly non-stationary multicomponent signals in both simulations and trials involving actual Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high frequency data. The MWD departs from the classic Wigner distribution (WD) in that it effectively eliminates the cross coupling among positive frequency components in a multiple component signal. This attribute of the MWD, which prevents the generation of 'phantom' spectral peaks, will undoubtedly increase the utility of the WD for real world signal analysis applications which more often than not involve multicomponent signals.

Zoladz, T. F.↗

Multilevel Monte Carlo Predictions of First Passage Times in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: A Graph-Based Approach

In this paper, we present a method combining multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and a graph-based primary subnetwork identification algorithm to provide estimates of the mean and variance of the distribution of first passage times in fracture media at significantly lower computational cost than standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Simulations of solute transport are performed using a discrete fracture network (DFN), and instead of using various grid resolutions for levels in the MLMC, which is standard practice in MLMC, we identify a hierarchy of subnetworks in the DFN based on the shortest topological paths through the network using a graph-based method. While the mean of these ensembles is of critical importance, the variance is also essential in fractured media where uncertainty is an overarching theme, and understanding variability across an ensemble is a requirement for safety assessments. The method provides good estimates of the mean and variance at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost than MC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗