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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Prediction and analysis of infra and low-frequency noise of upwind horizontal axis wind turbine using statistical wind speed model

Despite increasing concern about low-frequency noise of modern large horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs), few studies have focused on its origin or its prediction methods. In this paper, infra- and low-frequency (the ILF) wind turbine noise are closely examined and an efficient method is developed for its prediction. Although most previous studies have assumed that the ILF noise consists primarily of blade passing frequency (BPF) noise components, these tonal noise components are seldom identified in the measured noise spectrum, except for the case of downwind wind turbines. In reality, since modern HAWTs are very large, during rotation, a single blade of the turbine experiences inflow with variation in wind speed in time as well as in space, breaking periodic perturbations of the BPF. Consequently, this transforms acoustic contributions at the BPF harmonics into broadband noise components. In this study, the ILF noise of wind turbines is predicted by combining Lowson’s acoustic analogy with the stochastic wind model, which is employed to reproduce realistic wind speed conditions. In order to predict the effects of these wind conditions on pressure variation on the blade surface, unsteadiness in the incident wind speed is incorporated into the XFOIL code by varying incident flow velocities on each blade section, which depend on the azimuthal locations of the rotating blade. The calculated surface pressure distribution is subsequently used to predict acoustic pressure at an observing location by using Lowson’s analogy. These predictions are compared with measured data, which ensures that the present method can reproduce the broadband characteristics of the measured low-frequency noise spectrum. Further investigations are carried out to characterize the IFL noise in terms of pressure loading on blade surface, narrow-band noise spectrum and noise maps around the turbine.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WE-AB-207B-03: A Computational Methodology for Determination of CTV-To-PTV Margins with Inter Fractional Shape Variations Based On a Statistical Point Distribution Model for Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Our assumption was that interfractional shape variations of target volumes could not be negligible for determination of clinical target volume (CTV)-to-planning target volume (PTV) margins. The aim of this study was to investigate this assumption as a simulation study by developing a computational framework of CTV-to-PTV margins with taking the interfractional shape variations into account based on point distribution model (PDM) Methods: The systematic and random errors for interfractional shape variations and translations of target volumes were evaluated for four types of CTV regions (only a prostate, a prostate plus proximal 1-cm seminal vesicles, a prostate plus proximal 2-cm seminal vesicles, and a prostate plus whole seminal vesicles). The CTV regions were delineated depending on prostate cancer risk groups on planning computed tomography (CT) and cone beam CT (CBCT) images of 73 fractions of 10 patients. The random and systematic errors for shape variations of CTV regions were derived from PDMs of CTV surfaces for all fractions of each patient. Systematic errors of shape variations of CTV regions were derived by comparing PDMs between planning CTV surfaces and average CTV surfaces. Finally, anisotropic CTV-to-PTV margins with shape variations in 6 directions (anterior, posterior, superior, inferior, right, and left) were computed by using a van Herk margin formula. Results: Differences between CTV-to-PTV margins with and without shape variations ranged from 0.7 to 1.7 mm in anterior direction, 1.0 to 2.8 mm in posterior direction, 0.8 to 2.8 mm in superior direction, 0.6 to 1.6 mm in inferior direction, 1.4 to 4.4 mm in right direction, and 1.3 to 5.2 mm in left direction. Conclusion: More than 1.0 mm additional margins were needed at least in 3 directions to guarantee CTV coverage due to shape variations. Therefore, shape variations should be taken into account for the determination of CTV-to-PTV margins.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Southern Ocean Uptake in the MPAS-Ocean Model

The research added to the understanding of Southern Ocean Uptake in the following ways. 1) No single process in the model could be “tuned” to improve Southern Ocean uptake of heat, CO 2 and CFCs. 2) More comprehensive studies revealed that multiple aspects of the model are important; in particular the general circulation control of deep (>200m) stratification (Small et al., 2019) and salinity contributions to the shallow (< 200 m) stratification (DuVivier et al, 2018). These two aspects are not strongly connected. The first can be very much improved by increasing horizontal resolution, primarily because of more transport of high salinity water from the Indian Ocean into the Southern Ocean south of Africa, so we now know that “parameterizing” this salinity source will be one necessary step to improving the Southern Ocean uptake at low resolution. 3) However, the second was found to be more than just a resolution issue, which may explain why many studies have found that higher resolution improves only some aspects of model solutions, but degrades others. Even in cases where the surface wind is too strong, the shallow stratification is sufficient to inhibit vertical mixing even though the salinity stabilization is weak compared to observations. The conclusion is that the process responsible for mixing through the stable salinity barrier above 200m is missing from the model. Therefore, a second necessary step is to find the process then incorporate it into the model. The project focused on ocean surface wave driven Langmuir turbulence as the source of additional mixing by studying Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of Southern Ocean boundary layers as they eroded a realistic salinity barrier. The wind, buoyancy and wave driven boundary layer turbulence was found to be well described by Monin-Obukhov similarity by developing similarity functions of the wave driving, and combining these with the established wind and buoyancy functions (Large et al., 2018a). These functions and a novel analysis of the momentum flux and vertical shear fields from the LES revealed two distinct aspects where the boundary layer turbulence was much more organized than expected, and hence much more amenable to implementation in the model (Large et al., 2018b). First, there is a robust non-local across-shear transport of momentum throughout the ocean boundary layer; a hitherto missing process. Furthermore, this transport is related to the across-shear component of the wind stress in the same way that non-local buoyancy transport is related to the surface buoyancy flux, both in the ocean and atmosphere. Even the coefficients are similar in the convective limit. Second, the turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy are distributed through the ocean boundary layer of the LES in a very orderly fashion given by a single shape function that appears to be applicable to both momentum and buoyancy, with or without surface wave driving. Thus, a very technically effective and economic path to incorporating surface wave driving in the vertical mixing scheme of the model is now clear. The high degree of order found for ocean boundary layer turbulence, including Langmuir turbulence, is more amenable to empirical models than to statistical turbulence models, and the computational cost is very much less. Fortuitously, the empirical K-Profile Parameterization is already implemented in the model and the wave-driving similarity function, the non-local momentum transport and the vertical shape function are straightforward enhancements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution Regional Wave Hindcast for the U.S. Alaska Coast

Regional long-term wave hindcast with state-of-art third-generation models is essential for characterization of regional wave resources. This report summarizes modeling efforts for the simulation of the wave climate along southern Alaska, which used an unstructured, nested-grid modeling approach that incorporates a global-regional nested grid using WAVEWATCH III ® and the high-resolution SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model. Wave resource and wave bulk parameters were simulated for a 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 and were subsequently validated with wave buoy data in the model domain. Error statistics of model skills were calculated at all buoy stations. Overall, model results, both resource and bulk parameters, match observations well. The model hindcast was able to reproduce the seasonal variation of the sea state with large waves that occur in the winter and early spring months when wind forcing is strong and the calm sea state during the summer when wind forcing is weak. The hindcast also considers the effect of sea ice on wave growth, which affects the southern Bering Sea. The hindcast results, including resource and bulk parameters, were archived at every model grid point for the entire model domain at three-hour intervals. In addition, spectral results were saved at National Data Buoy Center buoy stations and selected virtual buoy locations at hourly intervals. The nested-grid modeling framework employed in this study provides a powerful and efficient modeling approach for accurately simulating wave climate at regional and long-term temporal scales with sufficiently fine resolutions in the nearshore region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Properties of hadron matter. II - Dense baryon matter and neutron stars.

In this article we have provided certain details of a nuclear-matter computation, based on the Brueckner-Bethe-Goldstone theory of nuclear reaction, which leads to an equation of state for matter in the density region of 10 to 500 trillion g/cu cm. We also explore the possibilities that at very high baryon densities or for very short baryon separations, the net baryon-baryon interaction may be negligible so that the results of dynamical models, like the statistical bootstrap model and the dual-resonance model, may be applicable to the study of dense baryon matter. Several plausible equations of state are constructed, and their effect on the limiting mass of the neutron star is examined.

Leung, Y. C.↗

Model optimization using statistical estimation

Program revises initial or prior estimate of stiffness and mass parameters to parameters yielding frequency and mode characteristics in agreement with test data. Variances are also calculated and consequently define uncertainties of final estimates.

Collins, J. D.↗

A computer program for thermal radiation from gaseous rocket exhuast plumes (GASRAD)

A computer code is presented for predicting incident thermal radiation from defined plume gas properties in either axisymmetric or cylindrical coordinate systems. The radiation model is a statistical band model for exponential line strength distribution with Lorentz/Doppler line shapes for 5 gaseous species (H2O, CO2, CO, HCl and HF) and an appoximate (non-scattering) treatment of carbon particles. The Curtis-Godson approximation is used for inhomogeneous gases, but a subroutine is available for using Young's intuitive derivative method for H2O with Lorentz line shape and exponentially-tailed-inverse line strength distribution. The geometry model provides integration over a hemisphere with up to 6 individually oriented identical axisymmetric plumes, a single 3-D plume, Shading surfaces may be used in any of 7 shapes, and a conical limit may be defined for the plume to set individual line-of-signt limits. Intermediate coordinate systems may specified to simplify input of plumes and shading surfaces.

Reardon, J. E.↗

Modeling the joint statistics of satellite path XPD and attenuation

A new and simple technique for estimating from attenuation statistics alone the joint distribution of attenuation and cross-polarization impairments on a satellite-to-earth radio path is presented. It compares measurements with predictions for the CTS spacecraft 11.7 GHz right-hand circularly polarized downlink during the first six months of 1979.

Gaines, J. M.↗

Model development and statistical investigation of turbine blade mistuning

This paper discusses the development of an efficient algorithm which calculates the individual blade response of a bladed turbine disk, the subsequent statistical investigation to establish mistuning dependencies, and procedures which reduce the increase in blade amplitudes caused by mistuning.

Griffin, J. H.↗

Statistical Time Series Models of Pilot Control with Applications to Instrument Discrimination

A general description of the methodology used in obtaining the transfer function models and verification of model fidelity, frequency domain plots of the modeled transfer functions, numerical results obtained from an analysis of poles and zeroes obtained from z plane to s-plane conversions of the transfer functions, and the results of a study on the sequential introduction of other variables, both exogenous and endogenous into the loop are contained.

Altschul, R. E.↗

A complete sample of double-lobed radio quasars for VLBI tests of source models - Definition and statistics

A complete, flux-density-limited sample of double-lobed radio quasars is defined, with nuclei bright enough to be mapped with the Mark III VLBI system. It is shown that the statistics of linear size, nuclear strength, and curvature are consistent with the assumption of random source orientations and simple relativistic beaming in the nuclei. However, these statistics are also consistent with the effects of interaction between the beams and the surrounding medium. The distribution of jet velocities in the nuclei, as measured with VLBI, will provide a powerful test of physical theories of extragalactic radio sources.

Hough, D. H.↗