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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-scheduling Ensembles of In Situ Workflows

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are widely used to study large-scale molecular systems. HPC systems are ideal platforms to run these studies, however, reaching the necessary simulation timescale to detect rare processes is challenging, even with modern supercomputers. To overcome the timescale limitation, the simulation of a long MD trajectory is replaced by multiple short-range simulations that are executed simultaneously in an ensemble of simulations. Analyses are usually co-scheduled with these simulations to efficiently process large volumes of data generated by the simulations at runtime, thanks to in situ techniques. Executing a workflow ensemble of simulations and their in situ analyses requires efficient co- scheduling strategies and sophisticated management of computational resources so that they are not slowing down each other. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to co-schedule simulations and in situ analyses such that the makespan of the workflow ensemble is minimized. We present a novel approach to allocate resources for a workflow ensemble under resource constraints by using a theoretical framework modeling the workflow ensemble’s execution. We evaluate the proposed approach using an accurate simulator based on the WRENCH simulation framework on various workflow ensemble configurations. Results demonstrate the significance of co-scheduling simulations and in situ analyses that couple data together to benefit from data locality, in which inefficient scheduling decisions can lead to slowdown in makespan up to a factor of 30.

Do, Tu Mai Anh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Prediction Impact of the Space Level Occupancy Schedule for a Primary School

By using the same occupant schedule for all spaces, a building level occupancy schedule in building energy modelling can reduce the cost and time of data collection, especially for large-scale simulations or when detailed occupancy data cannot be obtained. However, by describing the unique occupancy status in each space, a space level schedule can better reflect real-world scenarios. This research investigates the energy prediction impact of a space level occupancy schedule for primary school modelling in 16 ASHRAE climate zones. The results show that when switched from a building level to a space level occupancy schedule, the energy prediction difference is between -1.0% and 0.8%. Generally, the predicted building energy consumption using a space level occupancy schedule is higher than when using a building level occupancy schedule in hot and warm climate zones, but lower in other climate zones.

building energy model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical analysis of particle dispersion and deposition in coal combustion using large-eddy simulation

High-fidelity modeling provides a useful approach to investigate the particle dispersion and deposition mechanism in pulverized coal combustion. To be able to analyze these detailed mechanisms, this work couples detailed multiphysics models for poly-dispersed turbulent, particle-laden flow, particle and gas phase reaction chemistry, convective, conductive and radiative heat transfer, ash formation and deposition with a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) approach to numerically simulate coal combustion in a downfired self-sustained oxy-fuel combustor (OFC). It is necessary to explicitly capture all but the highest frequency dynamics of the turbulence and its coupling with each of the other physical phenomena using LES. Effects of subgrid-scale unresolved turbulence on the particle motions are also analyzed by a novel Stokes number analysis. Due to the inherent relation ship between coal combustion and ash deposition, this study integrates the improved ash deposition model into the numerical simulation. Overall simulation results are compared with experimentally measured data from the OFC. The simulation and measured data for the averaged gas temperature and deposition rates agree with 5% and 28%. This study shows that high-fidelity LES coupled with other detailed multiphysics models running on a exascale computing facility can provide a good representation of complex coal combustion and deposition in a laboratory-scale furnace.

multiphysics model↗
DOE OSTI2023

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parallel transport modeling of linear divertor simulators with fundamental ion cyclotron heating *

Abstract The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) is a steady state linear device with the goal to perform plasma material interaction studies at future fusion reactor relevant conditions. A prototype of MPEX referred as ‘Proto-MPEX’ is designed to carry out research and development related to source, heating and transport concepts on the planned full MPEX device. The auxiliary heating schemes in MPEX are based on cyclotron resonance heating with radio frequency (RF) waves. Ion cyclotron heating (ICH) and electron cyclotron heating in MPEX are used to independently heat the ions and electrons and provide fusion divertor conditions ranging from sheath-limited to fully detached divertor regimes at a material target. A hybrid particle-in-cell code- PICOS++ is developed and applied to understand the plasma parallel transport during ICH in MPEX/Proto-MPEX to the target. With this tool, evolution of the distribution function of MPEX/Proto-MPEX ions is modeled in the presence of (a) Coulomb collisions, (b) volumetric particle sources and (c) quasi-linear RF-based ICH. The code is benchmarked against experimental data from Proto-MPEX and simulation data from B2.5 EIRENE. The experimental observation of ‘density-drop’ near the target in Proto-MPEX and MPEX during ICH is demonstrated and explained via physics-based arguments using PICOS++ modeling. In fact, the density drops at the target during ICH in Proto-MPEX/MPEX to conserve the flux and to compensate for the increased flow during ICH. Furthermore, sensitivity scans of various plasma parameters with respect to ICH power are performed for MPEX to investigate its role on plasma transport and particle and energy fluxes at the target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Oxygen Defect Configurations in Single-Phase UO 2.15

Hyperstoichiometric UO 2.15 was characterized by neutron total scattering at high temperature in the single-phase UO 2+x region of the U/O phase diagram. The diffraction data confirmed a single-phase fluorite structure at high temperature. Analysis of the short-range data showed that the same structural model does not fit the pair distribution functions well. Instead, structural models containing specific configurations of oxygen defect clusters best represent the local atomic arrangement. In conclusion, prevalent defect clusters previously proposed were fit to the experimental data, and moderately distorted oxygen cuboctahedra hypothesized by recent molecular dynamics simulations fit the data most accurately.

neutron pair-distribution function analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A cross-study analysis of drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Abstract To enable personalized cancer treatment, machine learning models have been developed to predict drug response as a function of tumor and drug features. However, most algorithm development efforts have relied on cross-validation within a single study to assess model accuracy. While an essential first step, cross-validation within a biological data set typically provides an overly optimistic estimate of the prediction performance on independent test sets. To provide a more rigorous assessment of model generalizability between different studies, we use machine learning to analyze five publicly available cell line-based data sets: National Cancer Institute 60, ancer Therapeutics Response Portal (CTRP), Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer, Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia and Genentech Cell Line Screening Initiative (gCSI). Based on observed experimental variability across studies, we explore estimates of prediction upper bounds. We report performance results of a variety of machine learning models, with a multitasking deep neural network achieving the best cross-study generalizability. By multiple measures, models trained on CTRP yield the most accurate predictions on the remaining testing data, and gCSI is the most predictable among the cell line data sets included in this study. With these experiments and further simulations on partial data, two lessons emerge: (1) differences in viability assays can limit model generalizability across studies and (2) drug diversity, more than tumor diversity, is crucial for raising model generalizability in preclinical screening.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Protection of Distribution Circuits with High Penetration of Solar PV: Distance, Learning, and Estimation-Based Methods

The results of DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office project 34233 are presented. The newest version of IEEE Standard 1547 enables photovoltaic inverters to ride through voltage disturbances, improving bulk system reliability, at the expense of removing undervoltage trip as a fast method of de facto fault detection in high PV adoption scenarios. The project explored new methods of fault detection that don't rely on communication systems and could be available quickly, including distance-based schemes, focused directional relays, and two different data-driven schemes. The schemes were evaluated with fast-phasor simulation, electromagnetic transient simulation, and field data collection at partner utilities Chattanooga Electric Power Board and Dominion Energy Virginia. Accomplishments and possible paths forward are summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

DSI Python API Demo May 2023 [Slides]

Data Science Infrastructure (DSI) is developing searchable databases and workflows for simulation and experimental data derived from ASC clients. Short term goal: Make data easily accessible through metadata indexing and querying while respecting data permissions. Longer term goal: Use this data for data science activities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyDA: A Hands-On Introduction to Dynamical Data Assimilation with Python

Dynamic data assimilation offers a suite of algorithms that merge measurement data with numerical simulations to predict accurate state trajectories. Meteorological centers rely heavily on data assimilation to achieve trustworthy weather forecast. With the advance in measurement systems, as well as the reduction in sensor prices, data assimilation (DA) techniques are applicable to various fields, other than meteorology. However, beginners usually face hardships digesting the core ideas from the available sophisticated resources requiring a steep learning curve. In this tutorial, we lay out the mathematical principles behind DA with easy-to-follow Python module implementations so that this group of newcomers can quickly feel the essence of DA algorithms. We explore a series of common variational, and sequential techniques, and highlight major differences and potential extensions. We demonstrate the presented approaches using an array of fluid flow applications with varying levels of complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic Satellite Galaxy Quenching: A Unique Signature of Energetic Feedback by Supermassive Black Holes?

The quenched fraction of satellite galaxies is aligned with the orientation of the halo's central galaxy, such that on average, satellites form stars at a lower rate along the major axis of the central. This effect, called anisotropic satellite galaxy quenching (ASGQ), has been found in observational data and cosmological simulations. Analyzing the IllustrisTNG simulation, Martín-Navarro et al. recently argued that ASGQ is caused by anisotropic energetic feedback and constitutes "compelling observational evidence for the role of black holes in regulating galaxy evolution." In this Letter, we study the causes of ASGQ in state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations to evaluate this claim. We show that cosmological simulations predict that on average, satellite galaxies along the major axis of the dark matter halo tend to have been accreted at earlier cosmic times and are hosted by subhalos of larger peak halo masses. As a result, a modulation of the quenched fraction with respect to the major axis of the central galaxy is a natural prediction of hierarchical structure formation. We show that ASGQ is predicted by the UniverseMachine galaxy formation model, a model without anisotropic feedback. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even in the IllustrisTNG simulation, anisotropic satellite accretion properties are the main cause of ASGQ. Ultimately, we argue that ASGQ is not a reliable indicator of supermassive black hole feedback in galaxy formation simulations and, thus, should not be interpreted as such in observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elimination LArTPC Simulation Uncertainty

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPC) are crucial for measuring muons and neutrinos by capturing the paths of fast-moving particles through argon gas. However, these detectors face challenges such as electron-ion recombination, diffusion, and attenuation, which introduce uncertainties in simulation models. This study, conducted by Ka ren Mkrtchyan at FERMILAB, aims to reduce these uncertainties by adjusting the amplitude and width of signals detected by the TPC wires. Initial findings indicate that the current modification algorithm requires further refinement to better align simulations with observed data. Ongoing work focuses on correcting computational bugs and enhancing the simulation model for improved accuracy and statistical confidence.

Mkrtchyan, Ka'ren↗