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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Simulation for Combined Cycle Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multifactor interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of a Natural Gas Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System With and Without Carbon Capture

The fuel cell program at the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is focused on the development of low-cost, highly efficient, and reliable fossil-fuel-based solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) power systems that can generate environmentally-friendly electric power with at least 90 percent carbon capture. NETL’s SOFC technology development roadmap is aligned with near-term market opportunities in the distributed generation sector to validate and advance the technology while paving the way for utility-scale natural gas (NG)- and coal-derived synthesis gas-fueled applications via progressively larger system demonstrations. The present study represents a part of a series of system evaluations being carried out at NETL to aid in prioritizing technological advances along research pathways to the realization of utility-scale SOFC systems, a transformational goal of the fuel cell program. In particular, the system performance of utility-scale NG fuel cell (NGFC) systems with and without carbon dioxide (CO2) capture is presented. The NGFC system analyzed features an external auto-thermal reformer (ATR) feeding the fuel to the SOFC system consisting of planar anode-supported SOFC with separated anode and cathode off-gas streams. In systems with CO2 capture, an air separation unit (ASU) is used to provide the oxygen for the ATR and for the combustion of unutilized fuel in the SOFC anode exhaust along with a CO2 purification unit to provide a nearly pure CO2 stream suitable for transport for usage in enhanced oil recovery operations or for storage in underground saline formations. Remaining thermal energy in the exhaust gases is recovered in a bottoming steam Rankine cycle while supplying any process heat requirements. A reduced order model (ROM) developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is used to predict the SOFC performance. The ROM, while being computationally effective for system studies, provides other detailed information about the state of the stack, such as the internal temperature gradient, generally not available from simple performance models often used to represent the SOFC. Such additional information can be important in system optimization studies to preclude operation under off-design conditions that can adversely impact overall system reliability. The NGFC system performance was analyzed by varying salient system parameters, including the percent of internal (to the SOFC module) NG reformation—ranging from 0 to 100 percent—fuel utilization, and current density. The impact of advances in underlying SOFC technology on electrical performance was also explored.

solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), natural gas fuel cel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Module-Level Thermal Interface Material Degradation in HALT

Abstract In this study, thermal interface material (TIM) degradation is driven through highly accelerated life test (HALT) using temperature cycling with a prescribed vibrational acceleration for two commercially available materials having thermal conductivities of 6.0 and 8.5 W/m K. HALT specimens were prepared by applying TIM through a 4-mil stencil over AlSiC baseplates in the shape of those used in Wolfspeed CAS325M12HM2 power electronics modules. Baseplates were mounted onto aluminum carrier blocks with embedded thermocouples to characterize the thermal resistance across the baseplate and TIM layer. Thermal dissipation into the top of the baseplates was provided by a custom heating block, which mimics the size and placement of the die junctions in CAS325 modules, applying power loads of 200, 300, and 400 W. After initial characterization, samples were transferred to the HALT chamber with one set of samples exposed to temperature cycling only (TCO) and the other temperature cycling and vibration (TCV). Both sample sets were cycled between temperature extremes of −40 °C and 180 °C with vibrations applied at a peak acceleration of 3.21 Grms. After hundreds of cycles, samples were reevaluated to assess changes in thermal resistance to provide an accelerated measure of TIM degradation. This allows for reliability prediction of useful lifetime (illustrated in a solar inverter case study herein), as well as to provide a basis for developing an accelerated testing method to related temperature cycling to faster methods of degradation. Such techniques provide a means to develop maintenance schedules for power modules for ensuring sufficient thermal performance over the operating lifetime.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2011

UAVSAR: An Airborne Window on Earth Surface Deformation

This study demonstrates that UAVSAR's precision autopilot and electronic steering have allowed for the reliable collection of airborne repeat pass radar interferometric data for deformation mapping. Deformation maps from temporal scales ranging from hours to months over a variety of signals of geophysical interest illustrate the utility of UAVSAR airborne repeat pass interferometry to these studies.

interferometry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗
NASA NTRS1982

A study of the selection of microcomputer architectures to automate planetary spacecraft power systems

Performance and reliability models of alternate microcomputer architectures as a methodology for optimizing system design were examined. A methodology for selecting an optimum microcomputer architecture for autonomous operation of planetary spacecraft power systems was developed. Various microcomputer system architectures are analyzed to determine their application to spacecraft power systems. It is suggested that no standardization formula or common set of guidelines exists which provides an optimum configuration for a given set of specifications.

Nauda, A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accurate energies for ππ* excited states via exchange scaling: the XS-CASSCF method

The state-averaged complete-active space self-consistent field method (SA-CASSCF) is a widely employed electronic structure method used for studying photochemistry and dynamics owing to its ability to provide a reliable description even of complicated cases while still retaining computational efficiency. However, SA-CASSCF suffers from one Achilles heel, related to the description of ionic ππ* excited states, whose energy is often overestimated by 1–2 eV. In light of this challenge, we present the XS-CASSCF method, a new approach based on the idea of exchange scaling (XS) that screens the involved energy terms to improve the excitation energies of singlet ionic ππ* states. First, we illustrate the power of the XS-CASSCF method using hexatriene and para-quinodimethane as examples, showing that it corrects the targeted ionic states while leaving the other states largely unaffected, giving root-mean-square errors (RMSE) below 0.2 eV for the four lowest states in both cases. Subsequently, XS-CASSCF vertical excitation energies are tested against theoretical best estimates for a set of 11 molecules and 56 excited states. XS-CASSCF performs exceptionally well for the ππ* states of hydrocarbons, reducing the RMSE over 21 excitation energies from 0.96 to 0.27 eV. In the challenging subset of molecules with heteroatoms and a larger number of ππ* and nπ* states, we find that improvements can also be obtained, albeit not as pronounced. We conclude with an outlook into more realistic molecular materials focusing on their singlet–triplet (S 1 /T 1 ) gaps, finding that significant improvements can be obtained along the whole range of S 1 /T 1 gaps studied, going from 0.1 eV to more than 1.5 eV. Owing to notable improvements across significant classes of molecules combined with its conceptual simplicity, we believe that XS-CASSCF is a promising addition to the electronic structure toolbox, serving both as a standalone electronic structure method and as a starting point for further correlated treatment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Highly Available Nuclear Power for Mission-Critical Applications

Some energy consumers require power on an anytime, all-year-round basis with a high level of certainty, including defense installations, isolated communities, and some industrial processes. For these customers, interruptions in electricity or heat can mean substantial financial loss or even loss of life. In the absence of grid-scale energy storage, a high level of power availability can be accomplished only through the robustness and redundancy of power generators. The NuScale small modular reactor design is well suited to provide highly available power because of several features related to both the nuclear steam supply system and the overall plant design. In analogy to Redundant Array of Independent Disks (RAID) systems used to provide highly reliable data storage, a NuScale plant can assure sustained power generation by virtue of its Redundant Array of Integral Reactors (RAIR).This paper describes the NuScale RAIR plant features and summarizes the results of a rigorous analysis of RAIR availability as a function of power or, conversely, the RAIR plant output power as a function of power availability. The analysis utilized the Matrix Laboratory code (MATLAB) and included probability distributions for the frequency and duration of module outages due to planned and unplanned events. Further, the study evaluated the impact of implementing turbine bypass rather than module shutdown and using one or more modules to supply house loads in the case of loss of off-site power (LOOP). Availability results are presented for a 12-module RAIR plant with and without turbine bypass enabled during a LOOP and for different possible connections to the off-site power distribution grid and dedicated service loads. Results indicate that a very high level of availability can be achieved at relatively high power output levels, regardless of turbine bypass and dedicated load connection, compared to the operating fleet.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Bulk-Flow Analysis of Hybrid Thrust Bearings for Advanced Cryogenic Turbopumps

A bulk-flow analysis and computer program for prediction of the static load performance and dynamic force coefficients of angled injection, orifice-compensated hydrostatic/hydrodynamic thrust bearings have been completed. The product of the research is an efficient computational tool for the design of high-speed thrust bearings for cryogenic fluid turbopumps. The study addresses the needs of a growing technology that requires of reliable fluid film bearings to provide the maximum operating life with optimum controllable rotordynamic characteristics at the lowest cost. The motion of a cryogenic fluid on the thin film lands of a thrust bearing is governed by a set of bulk-flow mass and momentum conservation and energy transport equations. Mass flow conservation and a simple model for momentum transport within the hydrostatic bearing recesses are also accounted for. The bulk-flow model includes flow turbulence with fluid inertia advection, Coriolis and centrifugal acceleration effects on the bearing recesses and film lands. The cryogenic fluid properties are obtained from realistic thermophysical equations of state. Turbulent bulk-flow shear parameters are based on Hirs' model with Moody's friction factor equations allowing a simple simulation for machined bearing surface roughness. A perturbation analysis leads to zeroth-order nonlinear equations governing the fluid flow for the thrust bearing operating at a static equilibrium position, and first-order linear equations describing the perturbed fluid flow for small amplitude shaft motions in the axial direction. Numerical solution to the zeroth-order flow field equations renders the bearing flow rate, thrust load, drag torque and power dissipation. Solution to the first-order equations determines the axial stiffness, damping and inertia force coefficients. The computational method uses well established algorithms and generic subprograms available from prior developments. The Fortran9O computer program hydrothrust runs on a Windows 95/NT personal computer. The program, help files and examples are licensed by Texas A&M University Technology License Office. The study of the static and dynamic performance of two hydrostatic/hydrodynamic bearings demonstrates the importance of centrifugal and advection fluid inertia effects for operation at high rotational speeds. The first example considers a conceptual hydrostatic thrust bearing for an advanced liquid hydrogen turbopump operating at 170,000 rpm. The large axial stiffness and damping coefficients of the bearing should provide accurate control and axial positioning of the turbopump and also allow for unshrouded impellers, therefore increasing the overall pump efficiency. The second bearing uses a refrigerant R134a, and its application in oil-free air conditioning compressors is of great technological importance and commercial value. The computed predictions reveal that the LH2 bearing load capacity and flow rate increase with the recess pressure (i.e. increasing orifice diameters). The bearing axial stiffness has a maximum for a recess pressure rati of approx. 0.55. while the axial damping coefficient decreases as the recess pressure ratio increases. The computer results from three flow models are compared. These models are a) inertialess, b) fluid inertia at recess edges only, and c) full fluid inertia at both recess edges and film lands. The full inertia model shows the lowest flow rates, axial load capacity and stiffness coefficient but on the other hand renders the largest damping coefficients and inertia coefficients. The most important findings are related to the reduction of the outflow through the inner radius and the appearance of subambient pressures. The performance of the refrigerant hybrid thrust bearing is evaluated at two operating speeds and pressure drops. The computed results are presented in dimensionless form to evidence consistent trends in the bearing performance characteristics. As the applied axial load increases, the bearing film thickness and flow rate decrease while the recess pressure increases. The axial stiffness coefficient shows a maximum for a certain intermediate load while the damping coefficient steadily increases. The computed results evidence the paramount of centrifugal fluid inertia at low recess pressures (i.e. low loads), and where there is actually an inflow through the bearing inner diameter, accompanied by subambient pressures just downstream of the bearing recess edge. These results are solely due to centrifugal fluid inertia and advection transport effects. Recommendations include the extension of the computer program to handle flexure pivot tilting pad hybrid bearings and the ability to calculate moment coefficients for shaft angular misalignments.

SanAndres, Luis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska

Subsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiagvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (V s ) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost V s between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low-high-low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ V s and ground temperature measurements. The V s profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice-rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the V s , and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting V s profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identification and Study of Validation Level Test Cases for Computational Modeling of Non-Charring Ablators

Computational modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, used for aerospace applications, provides numerous advantages in preliminary selection and design of a heatshield material and shape for atmospheric entry vehicles. However, to serve as a reliable tool for prediction of material thermal and ablative behavior, the modeling approach needs to be validated against real experimental and flight data, preferably at a range of applied conditions. The validation study is typically very complex as it requires reliable measured data not only for the material thermal response and surface recession, but also well characterized environmental conditions. The validation problem becomes even more complex when the material thermal response is dictated by multi-physics effects such as solid conduction, in-depth thermal decomposition, pyrolysis gas flow and chemical reactions. The multi-physics effects complicate not only the modeling effort, but also the experimental measurement for validation of various aspects of the highly coupled problem. In this study, an attempt is made to identify suitable experimental data that could serve as a source for validation of material thermal response modeling tools. To reduce the computational complexity, this study focuses only on non-charring ablators, where the material thermal response could be modeled with a single governing equation for solid conduction and the ablation is limited only to the surface of the material. With a well characterized and publicly available experimental data being sparse, the study is limited in presenting test cases for only three materials: camphor, graphite and FiberForm® in the sequence of increased modeling complexity. Graphite is a commonly used TPS material for aerospace applications, both for leading edges of high-speed vehicles and internal insulation of solid rocket motors. FiberForm® is a porous carbon pre-form used in preparation of the well known PICA material Tran et al. [1996]. Inclusion of camphor into the list is conditioned with the relative simplicity in modeling the material thermal and chemical response and the low-enthalpy flow environment. In addition, camphor has been used as a simple test material for study of flow transition behavior by Stock and Ginoux [1973] and assessment of a heatshield shape change at flight relevant conditions by Rotondi et al. [2022]. In this work, the identified experimental data was extracted from the public literature and test cases that yet have been published. As it was found from the review, not a single test case contains an exhaustive set of data that would validate every aspect of the material physics. However, in the data collected, various aspects of the material behavior can be still validated, such as surface and in-depth temperature, amount of recession and a shape change. The identified experimental data for each case is accompanied with a characterized flow environment and simulated boundary conditions predicted by a Data-Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code Wright et al. [1998]. In addition, material thermal response numerical simulations in each test case are performed with Kentucky Aerothermodynamics and Thermal Response System (KATS-MR) Zibitsker et al. [2022] providing a comparative study and a sanity check for the proposed validation data. Sample results from the performed numerical study are shown below. Figure 1 shows distribution of surface heat flux and pressure values on a hemi-cylinder model made of FiberForm® and tested in HyMETS arc-jet facility. The results are shown for the high pressure condition among the two tests. Flow simulation was performed with DPLR code on a quarter of original geometry. In the figure, the quarter shape was mirrored across zx and xy planes to show the complete distribution. Figure 2 shows the material response results for the high pressure case (7500 Pa), simulated with KATS-MR and a comparison to the experimental data for the surface temperature and shape shape. The simulation was performed on a 2-D slice, extracted in the xy plane at the middle of the sample. Figure 3 shows the material response simulation for the low pressure case (3500 Pa) and a comparison to the experimental data for surface temperature and shape change.

ablation↗
NASA NTRS2001

Effects of afternoon "siesta" naps on sleep, alertness, performance, and circadian rhythms in the elderly

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of a 90-minute afternoon nap regimen on nocturnal sleep, circadian rhythms, and evening alertness and performance levels in the healthy elderly. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nine healthy elderly subjects (4m, 5f, age range 74y-87y) each experienced both nap and no-nap conditions in two studies each lasting 17 days (14 at home, 3 in the laboratory). In the nap condition a 90-minute nap was enforced between 13:30 and 15:00 every day, in the no-nap condition daytime napping was prohibited, and activity encouraged in the 13:30-15:00 interval. The order of the two conditions was counterbalanced. PARTICIPANTS: N/A INTERVENTIONS: N/A MEASUREMENTS: Diary measures, pencil and paper alertness tests, and wrist actigraphy were used at home. In the 72 hour laboratory studies, these measures were augmented by polysomnographic sleep recording, continuous rectal temperature measurement, a daily evening single trial of a Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT), and computerized tests of mood, activation and performance efficiency. RESULTS: By the second week in the "at home" study, an average of 58 minutes of sleep was reported per siesta nap; in the laboratory, polysomnography confirmed an average of 57 minutes of sleep per nap. When nap and no-nap conditions were compared, mixed effects on nocturnal sleep were observed. Diary measures indicated no significant difference in nocturnal sleep duration, but a significant increase (of 38 mins.) in 24-hour Total Sleep Time (TST) when nocturnal sleeps and naps were added together (p<0.025). The laboratory study revealed a decrease of 2.4% in nocturnal sleep efficiency in the nap condition (p<0.025), a reduction of nocturnal Total Sleep Time (TST) by 48 mins. in the nap condition (p<0.001) which resulted primarily from significantly earlier waketimes (p<0.005), but no reliable effects on Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO), delta sleep measures, or percent stages 1 & 2. Unlike the diary study, the laboratory study yielded no overall increase in 24-hour TST consequent upon the siesta nap regimen. The only measure of evening alertness or performance to show an improvement was sleep latency in a single-trial evening MSLT (nap: 15.6 mins., no nap: 11.5 mins., p<0.005). No significant change in circadian rhythm parameters was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy seniors were able to adopt a napping regimen involving a 90-minute siesta nap each day between 13:30 and 15:00, achieving about one hour of actual sleep per nap. There were some negative consequences for nocturnal sleep in terms of reduced sleep efficiency and earlier waketimes, but also some positive consequences for objective evening performance and (in the diary study) 24-hour sleep totals. Subjective alertness measures and performance measures showed no reliable effects and circadian phase parameters appeared unchanged.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1971

Development of techniques for measuring pilot workload

An objective method of assessing information workload based on physiological measurements was developed. Information workload, or reserve capacity, was measured using a visual discrimination secondary task and subjective rating of task difficulty. The primary task was two axis (pitch and roll) tracking, and the independent variables in this study were aircraft pitch dynamics and wind gust disturbances. The study was structured to provide: (1) a sensitive, nonloading measure of reserve capacity, and (2) an unencumbering reliable measurement of the psychophysiological state. From these, a measured workload index (MWI) and physiological workload index (PWI) were extracted. An important measure of the success of this study was the degree to which the MWI and PWI agreed across the 243 randomly-presented, four-minute trials (9 subjects X 9 tasks X 3 replications). The electrophysiological data collected included vectorcardiogaram, respiration, electromyogram, skin impedance, and electroencephalogram. Special computer programs were created for the analysis of each physiological variable. The digital data base then consisted of 82 physiological features for each of the 243 trials. A prediction of workload based on physiological observations was formulated as a simultaneous least-squares prediction problem. A best subset of 10 features was chosen to predict the three measures of reserve capacity. The cannonical correlation coefficient was .754 with a chi squared value of 91.3 which allows rejection of the null hypothesis with p of .995.

Spyker, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hierarchical Statistical 3D ' Atomistic' Simulation of Decanano MOSFETs: Drift-Diffusion, Hydrodynamic and Quantum Mechanical Approaches

When MOSFETs are scaled to deep submicron dimensions the discreteness and randomness of the dopant charges in the channel region introduces significant fluctuations in the device characteristics. This effect, predicted 20 year ago, has been confirmed experimentally and in simulation studies. The impact of the fluctuations on the functionality, yield, and reliability of the corresponding systems shifts the paradigm of the numerical device simulation. It becomes insufficient to simulate only one device representing one macroscopical design in a continuous charge approximation. An ensemble of macroscopically identical but microscopically different devices has to be characterized by simulation of statistically significant samples. The aims of the numerical simulations shift from predicting the characteristics of a single device with continuous doping towards estimating the mean values and the standard deviations of basic design parameters such as threshold voltage, subthreshold slope, transconductance, drive current, etc. for the whole ensemble of 'atomistically' different devices in the system. It has to be pointed out that even the mean values obtained from 'atomistic' simulations are not identical to the values obtained from continuous doping simulations. In this paper we present a hierarchical approach to the 'atomistic' simulation of aggressively scaled decanano MOSFETs. A full scale 3D drift-diffusion'atomostic' simulation approach is first described and used for verification of the more economical, but also more restricted, options. To reduce the processor time and memory requirements at high drain voltage we have developed a self-consistent option based on a thin slab solution of the current continuity equation only in the channel region. This is coupled to the Poisson's equation solution in the whole simulation domain in the Gummel iteration cycles. The accuracy of this approach is investigated in comparison with the full self-consistent solution. At low drain voltage only single solution of the nonlinear Poisson equation is sufficient to extract the current with satisfactory accuracy. A pilot version of a hydrodynamic 'atomistic' simulator has been developed in order to study the effect of the nonequilibrium, non local transport in decanano MOSFETs on the random dopant induced current fluctuations. For the first time we have also applied the density gradient approach in 3D to investigate the effect of the quantum confinement on the threshold voltage fluctuations. The developed 'atomistic' simulation techniques have been applied to study various fluctuation resistant MOSFET architectures including epitaxial and delta doped devices.

Asenov, Asen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Effect of Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads on Fatigue Reliability in Polymer Matrix Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multi-factor interaction relationship developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability- based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)(sub s) graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Shah, A. R.↗