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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars Pathfinder Project: Planetary Constants and Models

This document provides a common set of astrodynamic constants and planetary models for use by the Mars Pathfinder Project. It attempts to collect in a single reference all the quantities and models in use across the project during development and for mission operations. These models are central to the navigation and mission design functions, but they are also used in other aspects of the project such as science observation planning and data reduction.

Vaughan, Robin↗

Mars Pathfinder Project: Planetary Constants and Models

This document provides a common set of astrodynamic constants and planetary models for use by the Mars pathfinder Project. It attempts to collect in a single reference all the quantities and models in use across the project during development and for mission operations.

Mars Pathfinder Planetary Constants↗

Defining the Core Archive Data Standards of the International Planetary Data Alliance (IPDA)

A goal of the International Planetary Data Alliance (lPDA) is to develop a set of archive data standards that enable the sharing of scientific data across international agencies and missions. To help achieve this goal, the IPDA steering committee initiated a six month proj ect to write requirements for and draft an information model based on the Planetary Data System (PDS) archive data standards. The project had a special emphasis on data formats. A set of use case scenarios were first developed from which a set of requirements were derived for the IPDA archive data standards. The special emphasis on data formats was addressed by identifying data formats that have been used by PDS nodes and other agencies in the creation of successful data sets for the Planetary Data System (PDS). The dependency of the IPDA information model on the PDS archive standards required the compilation of a formal specification of the archive standards currently in use by the PDS. An ontology modelling tool was chosen to capture the information model from various sources including the Planetary Science Data Dictionary [I] and the PDS Standards Reference [2]. Exports of the modelling information from the tool database were used to produce the information model document using an object-oriented notation for presenting the model. The tool exports can also be used for software development and are directly accessible by semantic web applications.

ontology↗

Application of Flux Conserved Modeling to an Unsteady Combustion Driven Pseudo-Shock

Quasi-steady correlation-based and flux conserved models of the pseudo-shock pressure profile are experimentally assessed in the Air Force Research Lab RC-18 Sub-Scale DirectConnect Isolator Combustion Facility. A bifurcated normal pseudo-shock is established in the 2.67 aspect ratio isolator test section by a downstream cavity-stabilized combustor. The Waltrup-Billig correlation, Smart flux conserved model, and Fiévet data driven flux conserved models are compared against measured pressure profiles. The literature models are found to perform poorly in a high-amplitude forced environment of RC-18, where shock speeds upwards of 20% the isolator Mach number occur. Two modifications to the quasi-steady Fiévet data driven flux conserved model are proposed including incorporating an estimate of pseudo-shock static pressure recovery and exercising the model in a shock stationary reference frame. It is shown that these modifications allow the quasi-steady flux conserved modeling approach to accurately predict pseudo-shock pressure profiles over the discrete phases of high-amplitude forced dynamics.

Shock Train↗

Intelligent multi-zone residential HVAC control strategy based on deep reinforcement learning

Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) has been considered as an important demand response resource. However, the optimization of residential HVAC control is no trivial task due to the complexity of the thermal dynamic models of buildings and uncertainty associated with both occupant-driven heat loads and weather forecasts. In this paper, we apply a novel model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, known as the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG), to generate an optimal control strategy for a multi-zone residential HVAC system with the goal of minimizing energy consumption cost while maintaining the users’ comfort. Here, the applied deep RL-based method learns through continuous interaction with a simulated building environment and without referring to any prior model knowledge. Simulation results show that compared with the state-of-art deep Q network (DQN), the DDPG-based HVAC control strategy can reduce the energy consumption cost by 15% and reduce the comfort violation by 79%; and when compared with a rule-based HVAC control strategy, the comfort violation can be reduced by 98%. In addition, experiments with different building models and retail price models demonstrate that the well-trained DDPG-based HVAC control strategy has high generalization and adaptability to unseen environments, which indicates its practicability for real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

IER 555: Godiva Benchmark Update CED-2 (Final Design Report)

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) evaluation of the Godiva IV critical assembly, HEU-MET-FAST-086: GODIVA-IV DELAYED-CRITICAL EXPERIMENTS (HMF-086), was completed by Russ Mosteller. Five critical experiment configurations performed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area (TA)-18 were evaluated as acceptable benchmark cases. The five cases consist of four delayed critical configurations which differ in control rod positions and one prompt critical configuration. All cases calculated a lower $k_{eff}$ than measured by experiment. This data is referred to as the TA-18 Godiva IV benchmark in this report. In 2005, Godiva IV was disassembled for relocation to the Nevada Test Site (NTS), now Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). Following the disassembly and subsequent reassembly and startup of Godiva IV at NCERC, additional information about the Godiva IV components was obtained. An errata note was added to the HMF-086 evaluation in the ICSBEP handbook to provide this new information until a revision to the benchmark evaluation could be performed. In addition to those corrections, there are differences between the Godiva IV assembly at TA-18 and the Godiva IV assembly at NCERC. These differences include both assembly-specific differences (differences in the safety block gap, differences in the control rod positions, a new NCERC Top Hat and contamination shield) as well as environmental differences, such as the size and shape of the experimental building where the assembly is located. An additional model with similar cases, referred to as the NCERC Godiva IV benchmark in this report, will be added to the revised HMF-086 to capture these additional differences. This will provide the best benchmark model of Godiva for use by those performing experiments at NCERC. The IER 555 CED-2 report documents the information that will be updated in the HMF-086 revision, both the corrections to the TA-18 Godiva IV benchmark and the subsequent changes to create a NCERC Godiva IV benchmark. It describes the measurements that will be performed for cases similar to those performed at TA-18. It also describes measurements that will be included in the evaluation as additional data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advanced Turboprop Transport Aircraft Modeling for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Project

The objective of this study is to establish models for state of the art, representative regional non-electrified turboprop configurations in the 19-50 passenger capability range and assess performance impacts from advanced aircraft technologies. Two of these models will serve as reference baseline configurations for comparison to electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) demonstrator concepts for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project. The other two non-electrified configurations will primarily assess the impacts of advanced technologies on fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. This paper details an aircraft synthesis and performance analysis approach using the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) which is used to establish baseline performance capabilities, calibrate airplane and engine models using published manufacturer data and conduct technology sensitivity studies. Advanced technologies are selected from the categories of propulsion, aerodynamics, and flight systems. Performance assessments use Monte Carlo method coupled with GASP simulations to obtain performance distributions of the expected fuel burn, propulsive, aerodynamic, and weight benefits on the representative turboprop configurations from the application of advanced technologies. The final paper will present the impact of the advanced technologies on fuel burn and CO₂ emissions.

aircraft performance↗

Advanced Turboprop Transport Aircraft Modeling for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Project

The objective of this study is to establish models for state of the art, representative regional non-electrified turboprop configurations in the 19 to 50 passenger capability range and assess performance impacts from advanced aircraft technologies. Two of these models will serve as reference baseline configurations for comparison to electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) demonstrator concepts for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project. The other two non-electrified configurations will primarily assess the impacts of advanced technologies on fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. This paper details an aircraft synthesis and performance analysis approach using the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) which is used to establish baseline performance capabilities, calibrate airplane and engine models using published manufacturer data and conduct technology sensitivity studies. Advanced technologies are selected from the categories of propulsion, aerodynamics, and flight systems. A GASP-Monte Carlo simulation framework for uncertainty propagation is used to obtain performance distributions of the expected fuel burn, weight reduction and CO₂ emissions reductions from advanced aircraft technologies. Significant fuel burn savings from application of aerodynamics and propulsion technologies was observed.

Dahlia D.V. Pham↗

Off Median Phenomena and International Reference Ionosphere; COSPAR International Scientific Symposium, Trieste, Italy, Oct. 19-22, 1993

The main subject of the symposium was 'off-median phenomena'. The title denotes a range of problems that are rarely considered in 'pure science' studies of the ionosphere. The appearance of regular ionospheric variations is well known. Most of these depend on evident solar-geophysical influences like day and night, solar zenith angle, the seasons, geomagnetic control, solar activity, etc. Applicants and theoreticians as well used to work with monthly medians so that the in fact existing and quite important day-to-day variability is systematically overlooked. It is evident that a descriptive model like the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) would be inadequate if this variability were denied. Interesting contributions from the symposium on 'off-median phenomena' and the IRI are presented.

Rawer, K.↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Scale translation yields insights into gas adsorption under nanoconfinement

This work describes a scale-translating simulation framework to investigate gas adsorption behavior in nanoconfined pores. The framework combines molecular simulations (MSs), equation of state (EoS), and lattice Boltzmann (LB) simulations. MSs reveal the physics of methane adsorption in nano-sized pores, where input values of fugacity coefficients are optimized based on EoS predictions. Then, an LB free-energy model, which incorporates a viral EoS, upscales intermolecular forces and estimates adsorption behavior via a proposed fluid–wall interaction model. Armed with the values of the LB interaction parameter as a function of pressure, the LB model is used to predict fluid behavior in irregular nanopores, and the results are validated against reference MS data. The LB model is then used to study adsorption behavior at a continuum scale in representative organic shale nanopores based on finely characterized Vaca Muerta shale samples. Furthermore, the results show that methane adsorption could significantly increase contained fluids by 10%–25% in pores smaller than 20 nm. However, in larger pores (40 nm to 90 nm), adsorption's impact diminishes to 2%–3%, suggesting sorption's negligible role beyond a 40 nm pore size.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NACA0012 benchmark model experimental flutter results with unsteady pressure distributions

The Structural Dynamics Division at NASA Langley Research Center has started a wind tunnel activity referred to as the Benchmark Models Program. The primary objective of this program is to acquire measured dynamic instability and corresponding pressure data that will be useful for developing and evaluating aeroelastic type computational fluid dynamics codes currently in use or under development. The program is a multi-year activity that will involve testing of several different models to investigate various aeroelastic phenomena. This paper describes results obtained from a second wind tunnel test of the first model in the Benchmark Models Program. This first model consisted of a rigid semispan wing having a rectangular planform and a NACA 0012 airfoil shape which was mounted on a flexible two degree of freedom mount system. Experimental flutter boundaries and corresponding unsteady pressure distribution data acquired over two model chords located at the 60 and 95 percent span stations are presented.

Rivera, Jose A., Jr.↗

NACA 0012 benchmark model experimental flutter results with unsteady pressure distributions

The Structural Dynamics Division at NASA Langley Research Center has started a wind tunnel activity referred to as the Benchmark Models Program. The primary objective of the program is to acquire measured dynamic instability and corresponding pressure data that will be useful for developing and evaluating aeroelastic type CFD codes currently in use or under development. The program is a multi-year activity that will involve testing of several different models to investigate various aeroelastic phenomena. This paper describes results obtained from a second wind tunnel test of the first model in the Benchmark Models Program. This first model consisted of a rigid semispan wing having a rectangular planform and a NACA 0012 airfoil shape which was mounted on a flexible two degree-of-freedom mount system. Experimental flutter boundaries and corresponding unsteady pressure distribution data acquired over two model chords located at the 60 and 95 percent span stations are presented.

Rivera, Jose A., Jr.↗

Aerosol measurement program strategy for global aerosol backscatter model development

The purpose was to propose a balanced program of aerosol backscatter research leading to the development of a global model of aerosol backscatter. Such a model is needed for feasibility studies and systems simulation studies for NASA's prospective satellite-based Doppler lidar wind measurement system. Systems of this kind measure the Doppler shift in the backscatter return from small atmospheric aerosol wind tracers (of order 1 micrometer diameter). The accuracy of the derived local wind estimates and the degree of global wind coverage for such a system are limited by the local availability and by the global scale distribution of natural aerosol particles. The discussions here refer primarily to backscatter model requirements at CO2 wavelengths, which have been selected for most of the Doppler lidar systems studies to date. Model requirements for other potential wavelengths would be similar.

Bowdle, David A.↗

Materials and techniques for model construction

The problems confronting the designer of models for cryogenic wind tunnel models are discussed with particular reference to the difficulties in obtaining appropriate data on the mechanical and physical properties of candidate materials and their fabrication technologies. The relationship between strength and toughness of alloys is discussed in the context of maximizing both and avoiding the problem of dimensional and microstructural instability. All major classes of materials used in model construction are considered in some detail and in the Appendix selected numerical data is given for the most relevant materials. The stepped-specimen program to investigate stress-induced dimensional changes in alloys is discussed in detail together with interpretation of the initial results. The methods used to bond model components are considered with particular reference to the selection of filler alloys and temperature cycles to avoid microstructural degradation and loss of mechanical properties.

Wigley, D. A.↗