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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum simulations in effective model spaces: Hamiltonian-learning variational quantum eigensolver using digital quantum computers and application to the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model

Quantum simulations offer the potential to predict the structure and dynamics of nuclear many-body systems that are beyond the capabilities of classical computing. Generally, preparing the ground state of strongly-interacting many-body systems relevant to nuclear physics is however inefficient, even using ideal quantum computers. In addition, currently available NISQ-era quantum devices possess modest numbers of qubits, limiting the size of quantum many-body systems that can be simulated. In this context, a reformulation of the quantum many-body problems using truncated model spaces and Hamiltonians is desirable to make them more amenable to near-term quantum computers. The importance of symmetries in low-energy theories, including effective field theories (EFTs), lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD), and effective model spaces for nuclear systems, in particular their interplay with the reduction of active Hilbert spaces, is well known. Lesser known is the fact that the non-commutivity of some symmetries and truncations of the model space can be profitably combined with variational calculations to rearrange the entanglement into localized structures and enable more efficient simulations. Here, the goal of the present study is to explore and utilize the non-commutivity of symmetries and model-space truncations of quantum many-body systems important to nuclear physics, particularly in combination with variational algorithms for quantum simulations and effective Hamiltonian learning. We introduce an iterative hybrid classical-quantum algorithm, Hamiltonian learning variational quantum eigensolver (HL-VQE), that simultaneously optimizes an effective Hamiltonian, thereby rearranging entanglement into the effective model space, and the associated ground-state wavefunction. Quantum simulations, using classical computers and IBM's superconducting-qubit quantum computers, are performed to demonstrate the HL-VQE algorithm, in the context of the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick (LMG) model of interacting fermions, where the Hamiltonian transformation corresponds to an orbital rotation. We use a mapping where the number of qubits scales with the $\log$ of the size of the effective model space, rather than the particle number. HL-VQE is found to provide an exponential improvement in LMG-model calculations of the ground-state energy and wavefunction, compared to naive truncations without Hamiltonian learning, throughout a significant fraction of the Hilbert space. In the context of EFT, this corresponds to counterterms scaling exponentially with the cut-off as opposed to power law. Implementations on IBM's QExperience quantum computers and simulators for 1- and 2-qubit effective model spaces are shown to provide accurate and precise results, reproducing classical predictions. For a range of parameters defining the LMG model, the HL-VQE algorithm is found to have better scaling of quantum resources requirements than previously explored algorithms. In particular, the HL-VQE scales efficiently over a large fraction of the model space, in contrast to VQE alone. This work constitutes a step in the development of entanglement-driven quantum algorithms for descriptions of nuclear many-body systems. This, in part, leverages the potential of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. The exponential scaling of counterterms observed in this study suggests the possibility of more general applicability to other non-perturbative EFTs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

SNL CSP Library Archive Project (FY19 Report)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) and Tech Library have been collaborating over the course of the FY19 period to establish and maintain the first and only digital collection in the world of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) related historical documents, dating back to the CSP program inception here at Sandia in the 1970's thru to the present. The unclassified, unrestricted (UUR) collection, comprised of internally generated Sandia documents as well as a significant number of external reports will be searchable via both the Sandia website and OSTI, DOE's document repository. DOE is currently championing efforts to get the collection launched, where international partners, which include Australia and Germany, plan to forward related documents to be included in the CSP archive. Advancing this transformative project will make the CSP collection accessible to the Sandia and global communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Community Science to Reveal the Global Chemogeography of River Metabolomes

River corridor metabolomes reflect organic matter (OM) processing that drives aquatic biogeochemical cycles. Recent work highlights the power of ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry for understanding metabolome composition and river corridor metabolism. However, there have been no studies on the global chemogeography of surface water and sediment metabolomes using ultrahigh-resolution techniques. Here, we describe a community science effort from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium to characterize global metabolomes in surface water and sediment that span multiple stream orders and biomes. We describe the distribution of key aspects of metabolomes including elemental groups, chemical classes, indices, and inferred biochemical transformations. We show that metabolomes significantly differ across surface water and sediment and that surface water metabolomes are more rich and variable. We also use inferred biochemical transformations to identify core metabolic processes shared among surface water and sediment. Finally, we observe significant spatial variation in sediment metabolites between rivers in the eastern and western portions of the contiguous United States. Our work not only provides a basis for understanding global patterns in river corridor biogeochemical cycles but also demonstrates that community science endeavors can enable global research projects that are unfeasible with traditional research models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Accelerated Creep Testing Program For Nickel Based Superalloys

In order to improve the energy production within the United States, new materials are developed with the goal of increased functionality. These materials are required to perform at extreme pressures and temperatures (up to and beyond 200MPa and 650â??) as well as be sustainable beyond 105 hours. Before developing these materials into components for power generation, mechanical testing is required to better understand the behavior of these materials at various loads and temperatures. The longest of these tests is the conventional creep test which is a real time test that can beyond 105 hours depending on service conditions. Hundreds of specimens must be tested before being approved for use in power generation, but it is extremely difficult to rapidly qualify when each material is required to exceed 105 hours making testing through conventional means unfeasible. While others have designed accelerated testing methods to help qualify materials, many of these experiments use an empirical approach that requires test data to fit already existing creep data. In this study, an accelerated creep test called the stepped isostress method (SSM) is then applied to wrought Inconel 718 (IN 718) specimens. A test matrix is designed using deformation mechanism maps, time-temperature-transformation diagrams, and time-temperature-precipitation diagrams, in order to ensure that microstructurally, the accelerated creep tests fail similarly to the conventional creep tests. The data from the stepped isostress method is then applied to the McVetty and Sin-hyperbolic (Sinh) constitutive models in order to generate a creep master curve. The results from the model fits are then compared to the conventional creep data done from experiments as well as from the NIMS database for Inconel 718. Optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy are used to compare the evolution of the microstructure from the conventional creep and accelerated creep tests. It is found that using the Sinh model on the accelerated creep data provides reasonable creep rupture predictions when compared to the scatter band of creep tests. It was also observed that the microstructural evolution between the SSM experiments and creep tests were very similar in terms of the volume fraction of precipitates and phases.

Mach, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International (REI) has managed a team of experts from the University of Utah, Southeast University (SEU) in Nanjing, China, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Corrosion Management Ltd. (C-M), Praxair, and Brigham Young University (BYU) to investigate dry pulverized coal feeding for pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Dry feed firing systems for entrained flow, pressurized, oxy-coal combustors have not been well developed, although related technologies have been used in the Shell Gasification Process and for pressurized fluid bed combustion. DOE-funded research recently completed at REI and the University of Utah focused on characterizing impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. For high pressure combustion, that research used a coal slurry feed into a 17 bar pressurized combustor. As a consequence of that research, it was identified that fuel feeding and firing system flexibility are challenges that require attention. Based on that experience, the approach of using a coal slurry feed system leads to challenges in producing consistent atomization of the slurry, which causes burnout problems, especially at high pressures. In addition, slurry atomization processes may be difficult to scale to sizes appropriate for practical commercial use. Dry pressurized coal burner systems, on the other hand, have the potential to yield efficiency gains, improve flexibility and facilitate applications at larger scales. Experimental work was conducted at the University of Utah Industrial Combustion and Gasification Research Facility as well as the 100 kW pressurized oxy-coal combustor (POC) facility at Brigham Young University. Mechanism development and CFD-based combustion and dense-phase flow modeling were performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives has resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Design and prototype of a pressurized pulverized coal feeding and oxy-firing system 2) Data from a 100kW, pressurized (15 bar) entrained flow reactor with a dry feeding delivery and burner system that describes flame characteristics, radiative heat flux profiles, carbon burnout, along with characteristics of ash aerosols, fouling, and slagging. 3) Validated and transportable models that describe the relevant conditions in pressurized oxy-combustion systems and that can be used for scale-up and optimization. 4) Principles to guide design of high pressure, pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems. 5) Assessment of pressurized oxy-combustion impacts on key parameters relevant to oxy-coal fired utility boilers such as coal devolatilization, char oxidation, mineral matter transformation, deposition, and corrosion. The experimental data, pressurized oxy-firing system principles, and process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess the use of high temperature and high pressure oxy-combustion in current research and to guide development of new oxy-coal boiler designs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Data-Driven Seismic Full-Waveform Inversion With Field Data Study

Seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI), which uses iterative methods to estimate high-resolution subsurface models from seismograms, is a powerful imaging technique in exploration geophysics. In recent years, the computational cost of FWI has grown exponentially due to the increasing size and resolution of seismic data. Moreover, it is a nonconvex problem and can encounter local minima due to the limited accuracy of the initial velocity models or the absence of low frequencies in the measurements. To overcome these computational issues, we develop a multiscale data-driven FWI method based on fully convolutional networks (FCNs). In preparing the training data, we first develop a real-time style transform method to create a large set of synthetic subsurface velocity models from natural images. We then develop two convolutional neural networks with encoder-decoder structures to reconstruct the low- and high-frequency components of the subsurface velocity models, separately. To validate the performance of our data-driven inversion method and the effectiveness of the synthesized training set, we compare it with conventional physics-based waveform inversion approaches using both synthetic and field data. Finally, these numerical results demonstrate that, once our model is fully trained, it can significantly reduce the computation time and yield more accurate subsurface velocity models in comparison with conventional FWI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enriching Load Data Using Micro-PMUs and Smart Meters

In modern distribution systems, load uncertainty can be fully captured by micro-PMUs, which can record high-resolution data; however, in practice, micro-PMUs are installed at limited locations in distribution networks due to budgetary constraints. In contrast, smart meters are widely deployed but can only measure relatively low-resolution energy consumption, which cannot sufficiently reflect the actual instantaneous load volatility within each sampling interval. In this paper, we have proposed a novel approach for enriching load data for service transformers that only have low-resolution smart meters. The key to our approach is to statistically recover the high-resolution load data, which is masked by the low-resolution data, using trained probabilistic models of service transformers that have both high- and low-resolution data sources, i.e., micro-PMUs and smart meters. The overall framework consists of two steps: first, for the transformers with micro-PMUs, a Gaussian Process is leveraged to capture the relationship between the maximum/minimum load and average load within each low-resolution sampling interval of smart meters; a Markov chain model is employed to characterize the transition probability of known high-resolution load. Next, the trained models are used as teachers for the transformers with only smart meters to decompose known low-resolution load data into targeted high-resolution load data. The enriched data can recover instantaneous load uncertainty and significantly enhance distribution system observability and situational awareness. Here, we have verified the proposed approach using real high- and low-resolution load data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Striving to translate shale physics across ten orders of magnitude: What have we learned?

Shales will play an important role in the successful transition of energy from fossil-based resources to renewables in the coming decades. Aside from being a significant source of low-carbon intensity fuels, like natural gas, they also serve as geologic seals of subsurface formations that may be used to isolate nuclear waste, sequester CO 2 , or store intermittent energy (e.g., solar hydrogen). Despite their importance, shales pose significant engineering and environmental challenges due to their nanoporous structure and extreme heterogeneity that spans at least ~10 orders of magnitude in spatial scale. Two challenges inhibit a system-level understanding: (1) the physics of fluid flow and phase behavior in shales are poorly understood due to the dominant molecular interactions between minerals and fluids under confinement, and (2) the apparent lack of scale separation that prevents a reliable (closed) description of the physics at any single scale of observation. In this review, we focus on the latter issue and discuss scale translation, which in its broadest sense is transforming data or simulations from one spatiotemporal scale to another. While effective scale translation is not exclusive to shales, but all geologic porous media, the need for it is especially acute in shales given their high degree of heterogeneity. Classical theories like homogenization, while indispensable, fail when scales are not separated. Other methods, like numerical upscaling, scale-translate in only one direction: small to large, but not the reverse, called downscaling. However, the confluence of advances in three areas are bringing challenging problems such as shales within reach: increased computational power and scalable algorithms; high-resolution imaging and multi-modal data acquisition; and machine learning to process massive amounts of data. While these advances equip geoscientists with a wide array of experimental and computational tools, no individual tool can probe the entire gamut of heterogeneity in shales. Their effective use, therefore, requires an ability to bridge between various data types obtained at different scales. The aim of this review is to present a coherent account of computational and experimental methods that may be used to achieve just that, i.e., to perform scale translation. We provide a broader definition of scale translation, one that transcends classical homogenization and upscaling methods, but is consistent with them and accommodates notions like downscaling and data translation. After a brief introduction to homogenization, we review hybrid methods, numerical upscaling and its recent extensions, multiscale computing, high-resolution imaging, and machine learning. We place particular emphasis on multiscale computing and propose an algorithmic framework to bridge between the pore (micro) and Darcy (macro) scales. Throughout the paper, we draw comparisons between the various methods and highlight their (often hidden) similarities, differences, benefits, and pitfalls. We finally conclude with two case studies on shales that exemplify some of the methods presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-powered exploration of molecular vibrations, phonons, and spectroscopy

The vibrational dynamics of molecules and solids play a critical role in defining material properties, particularly their thermal behaviors. However, theoretical calculations of these dynamics are often computationally intensive, while experimental approaches can be technically complex and resource-demanding. Recent advancements in data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies have substantially enhanced the efficiency of these studies. This review explores the latest progress in AI-driven methods for investigating atomic vibrations, emphasizing their role in accelerating computations and enabling rapid predictions of lattice dynamics, phonon behaviors, molecular dynamics, and vibrational spectra. Key developments are discussed, including advancements in databases, structural representations, machine-learning interatomic potentials, graph neural networks, and other emerging approaches. Compared to traditional techniques, AI methods exhibit transformative potential, dramatically improving the efficiency and scope of research in materials science. The review concludes by highlighting the promising future of AI-driven innovations in the study of atomic vibrations.

Han, Bowen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Principal Component Analysis of Nuclear Cable Insulation Subjected to Elevated Temperature and Gamma Radiation

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), the aging of electrical cable insulation occurs due to elevated temperature, ionizing radiation, and other environmental factors. To ensure the safe and efficient operation of NPPs, determination of key indicators of cable aging is critical to predict the remaining useful lifetime of electrical cable insulation. In this work, the effects of simultaneous and sequential thermal and gamma radiation on the aging of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) electrical cable insulation are investigated. The chemical changes of the insulation were monitored non-destructively through the use of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The FTIR spectra were measured stepwise after predetermined exposure intervals, with a total irradiation dose up to 320 kGy at a dose rate of 300 Gy/hr in two exposure scenarios; simultaneously aged samples were heated at 150 °C during irradiation, while sequentially aged samples were heated at 150 °C for designated durations followed by corresponding times of irradiation at ambient temperature. A data-driven approach using principal component analysis (PCA) was developed to highlight changes in the carbonyl region of the infrared spectra of the aged samples due to oxidation and to differentiate oxidation rates under the simultaneous and sequential exposure conditions. Findings indicate that the sequential aging scenario may be more conservative than the simultaneous aging scenario for XLPE electrical cable insulation.

Li, Donghui↗
DOE OSTI2023

Korean Power System Challenges and Opportunities, Priorities for Swift and Successful Clean Energy Deployment at Scale

With South Korea’s electricity demand expected to grow 30% by 2035, transitioning to clean energy resources will be critical in reducing the electric sector emissions and achieving national climate goals. Rapid technological improvements can help keep costs low and maintain grid reliability, if Korea’s government takes a coordinated approach to the clean energy transition. This policy brief identifies key barriers to Korea’s shift toward clean energy, based on the authors’ companion report (A Clean Energy Korea by 2035: Transitioning to 80% Carbon-Free Electricity Generation ), interviews with experts, and the most recent data and literature. It then explores policy solutions for overcoming these technological, economic, and institutional barriers, and suggests market transformation strategies to speed the adoption of clean energy technologies. Amid ongoing cost and technological improvements in wind, solar, and energy storage, advancing this report’s recommended policy actions with maximum coordination among government officials can meaningfully accelerate Korea’s clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

In crystallo organometallic chemistry

X-ray crystallography is an invaluable tool in design and development of organometallic catalysis, but application typically requires species to display sufficiently high solution concentrations and lifetimes for single crystalline samples to be obtained. In crystallo organometallic chemistry relies on chemical reactions that proceed within the single-crystal environment to access crystalline samples of reactive organometallic fragments that are unavailable by alternate means. Furthermore, this highlight describes approaches to in crystallo organometallic chemistry including (a) solid–gas reactions between transition metal complexes in molecular crystals and diffusing small molecules, (b) reactions of organometallic complexes within the extended lattices of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs), and (c) intracrystalline photochemical transformations to generate reactive organometallic fragments. Application of these methods has enabled characterization of catalytically important transient species, including σ-alkane adducts of transition metals, metal alkyl intermediates implicated in metal-catalyzed carbonylations, and reactive M–L multiply bonded species involved in C–H functionalization chemistry. Opportunities and challenges for in crystallo organometallic chemistry are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moment method and continued fraction expansion in Floquet operator Krylov space

Recursion methods such as Krylov techniques map complex dynamics to an effective noninteracting problem in one dimension. For example, the operator Krylov space for Floquet dynamics can be mapped to the dynamics of an edge operator of the one-dimensional Floquet inhomogeneous transverse field Ising model (ITFIM), where the latter, after a Jordan-Wigner transformation, is a Floquet model of noninteracting Majorana fermions and the couplings correspond to Krylov angles. We present an application of this showing that a moment method exists where given an autocorrelation function, one can construct the corresponding Krylov angles and from that the corresponding Floquet ITFIM. Consequently, when no solutions for the Krylov angles are obtained, it indicates that the autocorrelation is not generated by unitary dynamics. We highlight this by studying certain special cases: stable m-period dynamics derived using the method of continued fractions, exponentially decaying, and power-law decaying stroboscopic dynamics. Remarkably, our examples of stable m-period dynamics correspond to m-period edge modes for the Floquet ITFIM where, deep in the chain, the couplings correspond to a critical phase. Furthermore our results pave the way to engineer Floquet systems with desired properties of edge modes and also provide examples of persistent edge modes in gapless Floquet systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Protection Coating System for Refractory Metal Alloys (EPCS for RMAs)

As part of ARPA-E’s Ultra High Temperature Impervious Materials Advancing Turbine Efficiency (UITIMATE) program, this project aims to develop an environmental protection coating system (EPCS) for refractory metal alloys (RMAs) – which will provide radical improvement in long term protection for ultra-high temperature refractory metal components in harsh gas-turbine environments. The drive for higher fuel efficiency and higher core power of gas turbines used in electric power generation and in aircraft propulsion requires higher peak operation temperatures. The temperature capability of state-of-the-art materials cannot meet the new requirements. Refractory metal alloys have desirable capabilities for achieving the required peak temperatures, but most of them are subject to oxidation in the gas turbine environment. Thus, there is a strong need to develop novel environmental protective coatings that enable the refractory metals to operate in an ultra-high temperature engine environment. This project is composed of four major technical innovations that can provide a potentially transformational solution in providing environmental protection for refractory metal alloys over a wide range of temperature. 1) Multi-layer self-healing environmental barrier coating (EBC) that provides protection against combustion gas environment. 2) Oxidation resistant diffusion barrier (DB) on the alloy surface to enhance coating stability. 3) Synergistic integration of the multi-layer self-healing EBC with the diffusion barrier to extend coating life. 4) Guidance of physics-based modeling to accelerate coating development and optimization. Our team has successfully developed a multi-layer self-healing environmental protection coating system (EPCS) that can provide oxidation protection for commercially available molybdenum based refractory metal alloys over a wide temperature range of up to 1600 °C for fuel-efficient gas turbine applications. The team also developed a multi-layer high temperature coating design tool to accelerate coating development and optimization based on physics-based modeling. The team also engaged RTX business unite, notable Pratt and Whitney, for future commercialization of this technology. The successful completion of this Phase I effort led to the selection of performing Phase II of the program. In Phase II, the team plans to apply the EPCS in the protection of a newly discovered molybdenum-based metal alloy which has the potential of superior high temperature properties to the commercial products. Th coating will be evaluated under test conditions and environment that mimic gas turbine operation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrons to Molecules by Engineering and Evolution: Biological Upgrading of Formate by Cupriavidus necator

Waste carbon from industrial point sources can be captured, stored, and/or transformed using electrochemical conversion or "electrons to molecules" technologies using low-cost renewable electricity. One such process involves electrocatalytic reduction of CO2 to generate formate/formic acid, a C1 carboxylic acid. Formate is a promising potential feedstock for microbial upgrading, as it is water soluble and can be consumed as the sole source of carbon and energy by some microbial species, such as the soil bacterium Cupriavidus necator. Here we will present progress toward improving C. necator as a host for biological conversion of formate to value-added products. Using the power of adaptive laboratory evolution, we were able to isolate mutants of C. necator with significantly faster growth rates on formate. We then sequenced the genomes of these strains, elucidated the metabolic role of the mutations we found, and then used these insights to build rationally engineered strains that outperform even the best evolved isolates. These results highlight the utility of "genome streamlining" as a route for generating platform strains with potential industrial applications.

adaptive laboratory evolution↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF) for optimal cosmological analysis

ABSTRACT Our Universe is homogeneous and isotropic, and its perturbations obey translation and rotation symmetry. In this work, we develop translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF), a generative normalizing flow (NF) model which explicitly incorporates these symmetries, defining the data likelihood via a sequence of Fourier space-based convolutions and pixel-wise non-linear transforms. TRENF gives direct access to the high dimensional data likelihood p(x|y) as a function of the labels y, such as cosmological parameters. In contrast to traditional analyses based on summary statistics, the NF approach has no loss of information since it preserves the full dimensionality of the data. On Gaussian random fields, the TRENF likelihood agrees well with the analytical expression and saturates the Fisher information content in the labels y. On non-linear cosmological overdensity fields from N-body simulations, TRENF leads to significant improvements in constraining power over the standard power spectrum summary statistic. TRENF is also a generative model of the data, and we show that TRENF samples agree well with the N-body simulations it trained on, and that the inverse mapping of the data agrees well with a Gaussian white noise both visually and on various summary statistics: when this is perfectly achieved the resulting p(x|y) likelihood analysis becomes optimal. Finally, we develop a generalization of this model that can handle effects that break the symmetry of the data, such as the survey mask, which enables likelihood analysis on data without periodic boundaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗