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DOE OSTI2026

Gaps in PV-Coupled Battery Modeling

With the rapid increase in battery attachment rates for PV systems and the continued qualification of storage for the ITC under OBBB, accurately characterizing PV-coupled batteries is becoming increasingly critical for the PV industry. This presentation will explore the key gaps in current best practices for modeling PV-coupled battery storage, including challenges such as battery thermal conditioning, the influence of dispatch strategies on battery value, the limitations of oversimplified degradation and performance models, and the absence of a centralized database containing sufficient battery parameters for accurate modeling. For behind-the-meter applications, we will also address issues like mismatched solar resource and load profiles, as well as uncertainties in future utility rates. Where applicable, we will quantify the impacts of these gaps on the accuracy and uncertainty of modeling efforts and highlight ongoing research aimed at addressing these challenges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-dependent THMC properties and microstructural evolution of damaged rocks in excavation damage zone

Modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in host rocks near high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories at various time scales is an extremely challenging task. The current study integrates experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods in assessing the evolution of excavation damage zone (EDZ) over time and its implication on the long-term migration of hazardous species. Argillite and rock salt and are the focus of this study. The first part of the report presents a novel time-dependent directional microcrack damage theory for generic brittle rocks. It features detailed statistical description of the microcracks within a damaged solid, permitting a direct upscaling of microscale processes such as crack growth kinetics, crack closure/opening, sliding friction to explain the macroscopic creep, nonlinear elasticity, shear dilation, and loading-unloading hysteresis. This provides a basic platform for describing the anisotropic mechanical and transport properties of damaged rocks during excavation and subsequent THMC loadings. The model is validated and numerically implemented to Finite Element (FE) package ABAQUS through the user-defined material (UMAT) interface and have demonstrated great potential in resolving the time-dependent and anisotropic evolution of damage in the EDZ. The second part of the report presents a multi-scale experimental effort in characterizing the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical properties of Mancos shale and Avery Island salt. For the Mancos shale, triaxial compression tests are performed at different confining pressures and temperatures to probe its thermomechanical properties relevant to HLW repositories. The obtained stress-strain data are interpreted using the proposed directional damage theory. Post-test specimens are subjected to gas permeability tests to reveal the correlation between permeability and the degree of microcracking. At microscale, temperature-controlled nanoindentation tests are performed and found a linear correlation between fracture toughness and elastic modulus from 25°C to 300°C. For Avery Island salt, we have designed and manufactured a novel relative-humidity controlled uniaxial creep device. Long-term creep tests at low stresses (< 5 MPa) are performed at different levels of relative humidity (RH). Besides confirming the much higher creep rates as one would expect through extrapolating the high-stress creep data, the results reveal that the steady-state creep rate of rock salt is strongly dependent on the ambient RH, an aspect that is often neglected in the literature. Both behaviors can be attributed to the pressure-solution creep mechanism which dominates at low stress and high RH levels. The third part of the report explores a set of numerical strategies in modeling the THMC behavior of porous geomaterials. A fully implicit, monolithic FE solution that can flexibly interface with different material models and coupling mechanisms for THMC problems is developed and verified through the ABAQUS user-defined element (UEL) interface. The scheme is used to study the THM response of a hypothetical HLW storage site with reference to an existing in-situ heater test. Strategies for integrating the UEL and the microcrack UMAT are suggested. Another numerical endeavor of this study is to implement a higher-order asymptotic homogenization method to account for the heterogeneous porous structures. The same method is then extended to perform microstructure-informed thermo-mechanical modeling of generalized continua. The above outcomes of this project provide a strong thrust towards enhancing the fundamental understanding and modeling capability of the long-term evolution of host rocks in EDZ, thus helping achieve the design goal of 1-million-year isolation of high-level nuclear wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A study of real-world micrograph data quality and machine learning model robustness

Abstract Machine-learning (ML) techniques hold the potential of enabling efficient quantitative micrograph analysis, but the robustness of ML models with respect to real-world micrograph quality variations has not been carefully evaluated. We collected thousands of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) micrographs for molecular solid materials, in which image pixel intensities vary due to both the microstructure content and microscope instrument conditions. We then built ML models to predict the ultimate compressive strength (UCS) of consolidated molecular solids, by encoding micrographs with different image feature descriptors and training a random forest regressor, and by training an end-to-end deep-learning (DL) model. Results show that instrument-induced pixel intensity signals can affect ML model predictions in a consistently negative way. As a remedy, we explored intensity normalization techniques. It is seen that intensity normalization helps to improve micrograph data quality and ML model robustness, but microscope-induced intensity variations can be difficult to eliminate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atomic-Level Features for Kinetic Monte Carlo Models of Complex Chemistry from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The high computational cost of evaluating atomic interactions recently motivated the development of computationally inexpensive kinetic models, which can be parametrized from MD simulations of complex chemistry of thousands of species or other processes and accelerate the prediction of the chemical evolution by up to four order of magnitude. Such models go beyond the commonly employed potential energy surface fitting methods in that they are aimed purely at describing kinetic effects. So far, such kinetic models utilize molecular descriptions of reactions and have been constrained to only reproduce molecules previously observed in MD simulations. Therefore, these descriptions fail to predict the reactivity of unobserved molecules, for example in the case of large molecules or solids. In this work, we propose a new approach for the extraction of reaction mechanisms and reaction rates from MD simulations, namely the use of atomic-level features. Using the complex chemical network of hydrocarbon pyrolysis as example, it is demonstrated that kinetic models built using atomic features are able to explore chemical reaction pathways never observed in the MD simulations used to parametrize them, a critical feature to describe rare events. Atomic-level features are shown to construct reaction mechanisms and estimate reaction rates of unknown molecular species from elementary atomic events. Through comparisons of the model ability to extrapolate to longer simulation timescales and different chemical compositions than the ones used for parameterization, it is demonstrated that kinetic models employing atomic features retain the same level of accuracy and transferability as the use of features based on molecular species, while being more compact and parametrized with less data. We also find that atomic features can better describe the formation of large molecules enabling the simultaneous description of small molecules and condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal carbon storage reservoir management through deep reinforcement learning

Model-based optimization plays a central role in energy system design and management. The complexity and high-dimensionality of many process-level models, especially those used for geosystem energy exploration and utilization, often lead to formidable computational costs when the dimension of decision space is also large. This work adopts elements of recently advanced deep learning techniques to solve a sequential decision-making problem in applied geosystem management. Specifically, a deep reinforcement learning framework was formed for optimal multiperiod planning, in which a deep Q-learning network (DQN) agent was trained to maximize rewards by learning from high-dimensional inputs and from exploitation of its past experiences. To expedite computation, deep multitask learning was used to approximate high-dimensional, multistate transition functions. Both DQN and deep multitask learning are pattern based. As a demonstration, the framework was applied to optimal carbon sequestration reservoir planning using two different types of management strategies: monitoring only and brine extraction. Both strategies are designed to mitigate potential risks due to pressure buildup. Results show that the DQN agent can identify the optimal policies to maximize the reward for given risk and cost constraints. Finally, experiments also show that knowledge the agent gained from interacting with one environment is largely preserved when deploying the same agent in other similar environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Efficient Parametric Model-Order Reduction for Turbulent Thermal Transport

This project produced new algorithms and software for low-cost exploration of turbulent thermal-fluids behavior under parametric variation by using reduced-order models (ROMs). The ROMs numerically solve the governing equations for fluid motion by using a small set of basis functions (typically, N=20-200 modes) to represent the solution. The base modes are computed as optimal combinations of solutions from expensive high-fidelity "anchor-point" solutions involving millions of unknowns, which are typically generated by solving the full Navier-Stokes equations on a supercomputer. The ROM solution is itself a combination of the base modes, where the basis coefficients are determined by evolving an NxN system of nonlinear equations. The overarching idea is to use the inexpensive ROM to predict solutions under conditions where the parameters differ from the anchor-point conditions. Several ingredients are required to make ROMs useful for thermal hydraulics analysis. These include: a stable and accurate ROM that is capable of reproducing the large-scale dynamics of turbulent flow, error indicators than can guide the choice of anchor points, and low-cost mechanisms for evaluating nonlinear terms in the reduced equations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program’s (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States’ largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework’s current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emerging anomaly detection techniques for electronic health records: A survey

Background Anomaly detection in electronic health records (EHRs) is a cornerstone of biomedical informatics, with direct implications for patient safety, clinical decision-making, and the prevention of healthcare fraud. Once guided primarily by simple rule-based methods, the field has advanced rapidly, driven by increased computing power, richer and more detailed health data, and the rise of machine learning and deep learning techniques. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of modern approaches to detecting anomalies in EHRs, outlining their strengths, limitations, and relevance to key healthcare challenges. We review traditional statistical methods alongside newer ML- and DL-based strategies and hybrid models, with particular attention to how these techniques support transparency and build clinical trust. Methods This paper presents a thorough and critical survey through systematic review (PRISMA-based) of the latest anomaly detection strategies in time-sequence data domains within electronic health record systems. Results We explore a broad spectrum of methodologies, including statistical models, supervised and unsupervised learning approaches, hybrid frameworks, and state-of-the-art ML-based techniques that collectively advance the precision and scalability of detecting anomalies in complex clinical datasets. In addition to mapping current capabilities, we address the enduring challenges that hinder widespread implementation and provide a forward-looking perspective on the future of anomaly detection in the data-rich landscape of modern healthcare. Summary The advancement in AI-based approaches is reported along with the basic principles of the individual approaches and their applicability. The increased availability of high-quality data, advancements in DL approaches, and enhanced computation power are leading to more frequent adaptation of DL-based approaches. Emerging DL-based approaches that have been adapted in other domains or recently applied in the EHR domain are also discussed in detail. Although DL-based approaches can improve model predictions by incorporating comorbidities, their application is limited in low-frequency data domains (e.g., when the total available data remains in the single digits). Therefore, the user must carefully consider the application based on data availability.

Anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2024

Project Title: Adaptive Vertical Grid Enhancement for E3SM (Final Technical Report)

During the first phase of the project (2018/05-2021/05), we proved the hypothesis that, without tuning, high vertical resolution improves the representation of unresolved, parameterized low altitude clouds such as stratocumulus clouds in global climate models. We evaluated the effectiveness of the newly developed computational framework, Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) by implementing it into E3SM. FIVE aims to improve representation of the target cloud, low level cloud for this project, with use of a locally high vertical resolution for computation of selected processes. FIVE was assessed via direct comparison among E3SM, E3SM-FIVE, and satellite data as well as a newly developed ensemble artificial neural network methodology. We demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE remarkably improves marine stratocumulus representation. To advance the FIVE methodology, we took a first step toward the adaptive vertical grid in the FIVE method by modifying the E3SM single column model. For future application of FIVE to the global storm resolving model with a few km horizontal grid resolution, we developed the vertical-meridional two-dimensional (2D) Hadley circulation model, which allows one to run simulations with much higher vertical resolution and significantly longer duration than current three-dimensional global storm resolving model. During the second phase of the project (2021/05-2023/11; period for this technical report), we sought a way to appropriately transform FIVE to a regionalized version of FIVE, which allows one to select locations with/without FIVE. In parallel, we demonstrated that E3SM-FIVE with a 25-km mesh significantly reduced the bias associated with coastal stratocumulus. Furthermore, we showed that the same improvement was able to be obtained with the use of both the Regional Refined Model (RRM) targeted to one of the stratocumulus regions with 25-km resolution and FIVE. We explored a new implementation strategy of FIVE with our 2D Hadley circulation model. In parallel we applied the 2D Hadley circulation model to study the double intertropical convergence zone bias with storm resolving model resolution and aerosol-cloud interactions within the Hadley circulation with near large eddy simulation resolution. Last, we have been investigating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds with large eddy simulations in order to improve their representation in global models. During the course of the entire project, 6 journal articles were published, and 3 manuscripts are currently in preparation. We gave a total of 30 presentations at various domestic and international conferences. In addition we gave 6 seminar talks at universities and a national laboratory. E3SM- FIVE is available as a branch of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark of the KGMf with a coupled Boltzmann equation solver

The Kinetic Global Model framework (KGMf) is an open-source general-purpose global model (spatially averaged) simulation code developed to explore the reaction kinetics and pathways in plasma discharge systems. It contains species continuity and electron energy balance equations, with a time-dependent evaluated electron energy distribution function (EEDF) for electron impact reactions. The EEDF is utilized to determine the rate coefficients for electron impact reactions, which can have profound impact on the temporal evolutions of plasma parameters. Previously, the EEDF was commonly assumed as Maxwellian or an analytical function of the effective electron temperature. In this work, the KGMf is coupled with a Boltzmann equation (BE) solver to self-consistently compute the EEDF. The EEDF evolution frequency is determined based on relative changes of the reduced electric field. The KGMf is benchmarked with the ZDPlasKin code based on high-pressure low-temperature argon plasma discharge cases. Additionally, the temporal evolutions of reduced electric field, electron temperature, EEDF, reaction rates, and species densities, are obtained and compared under different discharge conditions, showing good agreement between the KGMf and the ZDPlasKin simulations. The application of the KGMf for predicting breakdown times in high power microwave discharges is also presented, which shows qualitative agreement with particle-in-cell simulations. The KGMf can be further applied for more complicated plasma discharge systems, where the reaction kinetics are more intricate (e.g., plasma-assisted combustion systems).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Engineering of non-model eukaryotes for bioenergy and biochemical production

The prospect of leveraging naturally occurring phenotypes to overcome bottlenecks constraining the bioeconomy has marshalled increased exploration of nonconventional organisms. This review discusses the status of non-model eukaryotic species in bioproduction, the evaluation criteria for effectively matching a candidate host to a biosynthetic process, and the genetic engineering tools needed for host domestication. Here, we present breakthroughs in genome editing and heterologous pathway design, delving into innovative spatiotemporal modulation strategies that potentiate more refined engineering capabilities. We cover current understanding of genetic instability and its ramifications for industrial scale-up, highlighting key factors and possible remedies. Finally, we propose future opportunities to expand the current collection of available hosts and provide guidance to benefit the broader bioeconomy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrochemical and Material Characterization of Laser Micro-Structured Thick Battery Electrodes

By first exploring the limitations of thick planer electrodes, advanced predictive models were prepared to identify optimal electrode patterns for improved cycling performance. Herein, the impact of electrode laser patterning will be discussed in detail. First, materials characterization techniques (SEM-EDS, XRD) were used to explore the effect ultrafast laser ablation had on the electrode materials' morphology and structure. Next, the improvements in the patterned electrodes' electrochemical cycling performances and degrees of wetting will be compared to a pristine baseline case. Finally, the correlation between experimentally obtained data and model predictions will be presented and discussed.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2021

Finding Liebig’s law of the minimum

Abstract Liebig’s law of the minimum (LLM) is often used to interpret empirical biological growth data and model multiple substrates co‐limited growth. However, its mechanistic foundation is rarely discussed, even though its validity has been questioned since its introduction in the 1820s. Here we first show that LLM is a crude approximation of the law of mass action, the state of art theory of biochemical reactions, and the LLM model is less accurate than two other approximations of the law of mass action: the synthesizing unit model and the additive model. We corroborate this conclusion using empirical data sets of algae and plants grown under two co‐limiting substrates. Based on our analysis, we show that when growth is modeled directly as a function of substrate uptake, the LLM model improperly restricts the organism to be of fixed elemental stoichiometry, making it incapable of consistently resolving biological adaptation, ecological evolution, and community assembly. When growth is modeled as a function of the cellular nutrient quota, the LLM model may obtain good results at the risk of incorrect model parameters as compared to those inferred from the more accurate synthesizing unit model. However, biogeochemical models that implement these three formulations are needed to evaluate which formulation is acceptably accurate and their impacts on predicted long‐term ecosystem dynamics. In particular, studies are needed that explore the extent to which parameter calibration can rescue model performance when the mechanistic representation of a biogeochemical process is known to be deficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration and Optimization of a Waste Heat Driven Organic Rankine Cycle for Power Generation in Wastewater Treatment Plants

The study focuses on achieving energy self-sufficiency in Wastewater Treatment Plants by proposing a comprehensive model for integrating, sizing, and optimizing an Organic Rankine Cycle system. The Organic Rankine Cycle system is designed to utilize waste heat from the gensets at As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant in Jordan, where it will contribute to the overall electrical energy supply of the plant. Real data from As Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant is used to model and calculate the available waste heat using TRNSYS® software. The Organic Rankine Cycle model is then developed using ASPEN PLUS® software to explore the impact of operational parameters and determine their optimal values for maximizing the plant's energy profile. An economic analysis is conducted to assess the feasibility of the proposed model, considering system components, installation, operation, and maintenance costs. To optimize the Organic Rankine Cycle system, the study employs the Multi-Output Support Vector Regression technique to capture nonlinear relationships between independent variables (fluid type, turbine inlet pressure, turbine inlet temperature, turbine outlet pressure, and mass flow rate) and dependent variables (pump power input, waste heat input, and turbine specific work). The Osprey optimization algorithm is used to address the multi-objective optimization problem, with the proposed Pareto-based Osprey Optimization Algorithm and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization technique being employed to evaluate critical performance and economic parameters such as system thermal efficiency, net power output, and the levelized cost of electricity. The results of the optimization strategies indicate that the M-SVR model's prediction accuracy is significantly improved after parameter optimization, with the model returning high R 2 and low Mean Square Error values of 0.991 and 0.00216, respectively. The Pareto-Based Osprey Optimization Algorithm optimizer identifies the best working fluid as Isobutane/Isopentane in a ratio of 66:34, with optimal turbine inlet pressure and temperature of 15 bars and 218 °C, respectively. In conclusion, the Organic Rankine Cycle model at these optimal conditions achieves a cycle efficiency of 19.93% and an Levelized Cost of Electricity value of 0.0353 USD/kWh.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

In-cylinder spray evolution in a motored central-injection gasoline engine: Imaging and simulating the effects of flash-boiling and intake crossflow

Accurate predictions of fuel spray behavior and mixture formation in simulations of direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines are fundamental to ensure proper description of all subsequent processes including ignition, combustion, and emissions. In this work, the spray evolution in a single-cylinder optical DISI engine was studied experimentally and numerically with the goal of enabling predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of in-cylinder sprays. The authors explored a wide range of operating conditions characterized by several fuel injection temperatures and engine speeds, using a well-characterized nine-component gasoline surrogate known as PACE-20. The effect of flash boiling and intake crossflow on the spray is discussed, with a focus on evaluating the ability of the spray models to capture highly transient spray behavior. In the experiments, the fuel temperature was varied between 20°C and 80°C, allowing for non-flash- to flash-boiling transition to emerge with enhanced flashing intensity at the highest temperatures. Spray collapse resulted in vapor-rich regions, owing to the locally lower inertia of the fluid. Varying the engine speed from 650 to 1950 rpm promoted increasingly more turbulent in-cylinder crossflow which interacted with the spray during the injection event and resulted in enhanced spray dispersion. The CFD model was able to capture the spray morphology transition at different fuel temperatures and engine speeds adequately. Further, it is shown that the spray breakup model could capture the transitional spray behavior induced by flash boiling atomization and intake flow via proper initialization of the spray cone angle and calibration of the spray models’ constants.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hamming distance and the onset of quantum criticality

Simulating models for quantum correlated matter unveils the inherent limitations of deterministic classical computations. In particular, in the case of quantum Monte Carlo methods, this is manifested by the emergence of negative weight configurations in the sampling, that is, the sign problem (SP). There have been several recent calculations which exploit the SP to locate underlying critical behavior. Here, utilizing a metric that quantifies phase-space ergodicity in such sampling, the Hamming distance, we suggest a significant advance on these ideas to extract the location of quantum critical points in various fermionic models, in spite of the presence of a severe SP. Combined with other methods, exact diagonalization in our case, it elucidates both the nature of the different phases as well as their location, as we demonstrate explicitly for the honeycomb and triangular Hubbard models, in both their U(1) and SU(2) forms. Furthermore, our approach exemplifies a possible path allowing the exploration of the phase diagram of a variety of fermionic quantum models hitherto considered to be impractical via quantum Monte Carlo simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Singlet, triplet, and pair density wave superconductivity in the doped triangular-lattice moiré system

Recent experimental progress has established the twisted bilayer transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) as a highly tunable platform for studying many-body physics. Particularly, the homobilayer TMDs under displacement field are believed to be described by a generalized triangular-lattice Hubbard model with a spin-dependent hopping phase θ. To explore the effects of θ on the system, we perform density matrix renormalization group calculations for the relevant triangular lattice t-J model. By changing θ at small hole doping, we obtain a region of quasi-long-range superconducting order coexisting with charge and spin density wave within 0 < θ < π/3. The superconductivity is composed of a dominant spin singlet d-wave and a subdominant triplet p-wave pairing. Intriguingly, the S z = ±1 triplet pairing components feature pair-density waves. In addition, we find a region of triplet superconductivity coexisting with charge-density wave and ferromagnetism within π/3 < θ < 2π/3, which is related to the former phase at smaller θ by a combined operation of spin-flip and gauge transformation. Furthermore, our findings provide insights and directions for experimental search for exotic superconductivity in twisted TMD systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗