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DOE OSTI2020

Consequence Analysis of Residual Water in a Storage Canister - 20484

Recent observations from projects sponsored under the DOE-Nuclear Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition campaign show that residual free water, well above the 0.4 gm-moles that correspond to a 3 torr rebound pressure after a 30-minute hold following prototypic drying, may remain within SNF canisters used for long-term dry storage. Specifically, experimental observations in an Integrated Research Project showed subzero temperatures and a local pocket of frozen water in a mockup fuel assembly subjected to an industry practiced drying process. In gas sampling and analysis from the High Burnup (HBU) Demonstration project, using a fully loaded and dried SNF canister, indicated presence of 100 g of residual water had remained in the canister. The effects of residual water in terms of potential adverse impacts on the condition of the SNF and the canister internals during long-term dry storage has been rigorously evaluated to address inadvertent residual water contents. The impact of residual water on the fuel and canister internals, with a focus on the oxidation of the cladding and of postulated exposed (breached-clad) fuel, were evaluated using an integrated set of time-dependent environmental conditions with semi-empirical materials oxidation models. An 'integration model,' with coupled sub-models, developed and previously used by the Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analysis (CNWRA), was applied and expanded with improved sub-models for water radiolysis, and for cladding and fuel oxidations. Cladding oxidation models for various alloys were developed using the rate constants for various cladding alloys in the dry storage temperature range. A burnup-dependent fuel oxidation model was developed; it accounted for inhibition effect of fission products on fuel oxidation rates. The potential for extension of the initial breach flaw (1 mm hole) was evaluated by two separate mechanics criteria. In the first case, a critical cladding strain criterion was used. In the second case, a critical stress intensity was used to evaluate stability of a planar axial flaw postulate. A failure condition exists when a sufficient amount of fuel oxidation (at the postulated breached-clad location) causes fuel pellet swelling to load the cladding to meet a mechanics criterion for flaw extension. The integration model's results provide the following insights. The radiolysis-generated oxygen is consumed with a partitioning between the cladding and the fuel. The extent of cladding oxidation is no more than 2 μm additional consumption of the cladding metal even with 10 moles of residual water, indicating that changes in cladding conditions due to water are expected to be negligible. The conditions for cladding failure (breach opening size extension) directly correlates with the extent of fuel oxidation. Fuel oxidation significant to extend the breach could occur even with 5.5 moles of residual water. The results indicate that fuel oxidation vis-a-vis cladding oxidation is more likely under a higher radiation field, i.e., when radiolytic decomposition of the residual water occurs in few years compared to several decades, and that the conditions to cause failure are increased with fuel and cladding temperatures approaching the peak storage temperature limit of 400 deg. C. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1986

Computational models for the analysis/design of hypersonic scramjet components. I - Combustor and nozzle models

An overview of computational models developed for the complete, design-oriented analysis of a scramjet propulsion system is provided. The modular approach taken involves the use of different PNS models to analyze the individual propulsion system components. The external compression and internal inlet flowfields are analyzed by the SCRAMP and SCRINT components discussed in Part II of this paper. The combustor is analyzed by the SCORCH code which is based upon SPLITP PNS pressure-split methodology formulated by Dash and Sinha. The nozzle is analyzed by the SCHNOZ code which is based upon SCIPVIS PNS shock-capturing methodology formulated by Dash and Wolf. The current status of these models, previous developments leading to this status, and, progress towards future hybrid and 3D versions are discussed in this paper.

Dash, S. M.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392

A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autoignition of cyclohexane at low-to-intermediate temperatures: Rapid compression machine experiments and improved comprehensive chemical kinetic model

Cycloalkanes are an important class of hydrocarbons found in conventional and alternative transportation fuels. Being one of the simplest practical cycloalkanes, cyclohexane is often used as a surrogate in studies to understand the oxidation, ignition, and sooting characteristics of cycloalkanes more broadly. Although cyclohexane has been extensively studied, very limited datasets for cyclohexane oxidation at low-to-intermediate temperatures are available in the literature. Moreover, the literature autoignition data from rapid compression machines (RCMs) did not provide information on volume histories or experimental heat transfer characteristics which can significantly impact model predictions, thereby hindering the detailed validation of chemical kinetic models. It has also been observed that the cyclohexane kinetic models developed so far are not able to predict the literature data across a wide range of operating and mixture conditions. Hence, further studies are recommended to understand and improve model predictions for cyclohexane oxidation. In this study, RCM experiments were conducted using cyclohexane/air mixtures at varying compressed pressures (P C =15, 20, and 30 bar), equivalence ratios (ϕ=0.5, 1.0, and 2.0), and compressed temperatures (T C =670–960 K). The current RCM results of cyclohexane were found to complement well with the literature data, with the first-stage IDTs at high pressures and volume histories at all test conditions being first reported for better development and validation of chemical kinetic models. Additionally, a detailed chemical kinetic model for the cyclohexane oxidation has been developed and validated using both newly acquired experimental IDTs in this study and literature experimental studies (IDTs in RCMs and STs, species profiles in jet-stirred reactors, and laminar burning velocities). Unlike literature models, the proposed model was observed to provide an overall better prediction for experimental results over a wide range of conditions. Chemical kinetic analysis of the developed model was further conducted to identify the reaction pathways controlling the autoignition of cyclohexane.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Finite Strain Johnson Cook Plasticity and Damage Constitutive Model in ALEGRA.

A finite strain formulation of the Johnson Cook plasticity and damage model and it's numerical implementation into the ALEGRA code is presented. The goal of this work is to improve the predictive material failure capability of the Johnson Cook model. The new implementation consists of a coupling of damage and the stored elastic energy as well as the minimum failure strain criteria for spall included in the original model development. This effort establishes the necessary foundation for a thermodynamically consistent and complete continuum solid material model, for which all intensive properties derive from a common energy. The motivation for developing such a model is to improve upon ALEGRA's present combined model framework. Several applications of the new Johnson Cook implementation are presented. Deformation driven loading paths demonstrate the basic features of the new model formulation. Use of the model produces good comparisons with experimental Taylor impact data. Localized deformation leading to fragmentation is produced for expanding ring and exploding cylinder applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Preliminary Analysis of Facility Design for Pyro-processing Safeguardability

The deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems can assure sustainable energy use worldwide. For some of these systems, nuclear fuel will be fabricated in remotely-handled facilities in which batch-type processing will occur in heavily-shielded hot cells. Because special nuclear material is in both different physical and chemical form than that of the contemporary fuel cycle, new challenges have arisen in terms of safeguards, safety, and security, integrated with facility design; i.e., safeguardability. There is a need to develop models that can quantitatively assess safeguardability from a design-driven perspective. Previously, the first build of a material throughput model was established using discrete event simulation (DES) for the fuel fabrication process. Results showed that the DES model potentially can detect diversion attempts. This paper continues the study by further developing the the model. We test the use of the probability of the false alarm; i.e., the Type I error, as a metric for safeguardability assessment. Initiating events leading to a false alarm arise from aspects of safeguards, safety, and security. Different conceptual facility designs could exhibit different frequencies for the Type I error, and this could provide a measure of the safeguardability of each design. A quantitative assessment for safeguardable facility designs has not been developed in this manner. Much of the research into safeguardability has been qualitative. Engineering design approaches for a safeguardable facility are now needed. As there are not accepted metrics for safeguardability assessment, our motivation is to develop this design facet of safeguardability further.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of Aeroservoelastic Effects on Flutter

The HSCT Flight Controls Group is developing a longitudinal control law, known as Gamma-dot / V, for the NASA HSR program. Currently, this control law is based on a quasi-steady aeroelastic (QSAE) model of the vehicle. This control law was implemented into the p-k flutter analysis process for closed loop aeroservoelastic analysis. The available flexible models, developed for the TCA aeroelastic analysis, were used to assess the effect of control laws on flutter at several different Mach numbers and mass conditions. Significant structures and flight control system interaction was observed during the initial assessment. Figures 1 and 2 present a summary of the effect of total closed loop gain and phase on flutter mechanisms, based on ideal sensors and real sensors, for Mach 0.95 and mass M02 condition. Control laws based on ideal sensors gave rise to increased coupling between the rigid body short period mode and the first symmetric elastic mode. This reduced the stability margins for the first elastic mode and does not meet the required 6 dB gain margin requirement. The effect of "real" sensors significantly increased the structures and control system interactions. This caused the elastic,modes to be highly unstable throughout most of the flight envelope. State-space models were developed for several conditions and then MATLAB program was used for the aeroservoelastic stability analysis. These results provided an independent verification of the p-k flutter analysis findings. Good overall agreement was observed between the p-k flutter analysis and state-space model results for both damping and frequency comparisons. These results are also included in this document.

Nagaraja, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Predicting the ethanol potential of wheat straw using near-infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics: The challenge of inherently intercorrelated response functions

Here, the combination of NIR spectroscopy and chemometrics is a powerful correlation method for predicting the chemical constituents in biological matrices, such as the glucose and xylose content of straw. However, difficulties arise when it comes to predicting enzymatic glucose and xylose release potential, which is matrix dependent. Further complications are caused by xylose and glucose release potential being highly intercorrelated. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding the causal relationship between the model and the constituent of interest. It investigates the possibility of using near-infrared spectroscopy to evaluate the ethanol potential of wheat straw by analyzing more than 1000 samples from different wheat varieties and growth conditions. During the calibration model development, the prime emphasis was to investigate the correlation structure between the two major quality traits for saccharification of wheat straw: glucose and xylose release. The large sample set enabled a versatile and robust calibration model to be developed, showing that the prediction model for xylose release is based on a causal relationship with the NIR spectral data. In contrast, the prediction of glucose release was found to be highly dependent on the intercorrelation with xylose release. If this correlation is broken, the model performance breaks down. A simple method was devised for avoiding this breakdown and can be applied to any large dataset for investigating the causality or lack of causality of a prediction model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Integral Solution of Two-Region Solid–Liquid Phase Change in Annular Geometries and Application to Phase Change Materials–Air Heat Exchangers

A mathematical model based on the integral method is developed to solve the problem of conduction-controlled solid–liquid phase change in annular geometries with temperature gradients in both phases. The inner and outer boundaries of the annulus were subject to convective, constant temperature or adiabatic boundary conditions. The developed model was validated by comparison with control volume-based computational results using the temperature-transforming phase change model, and an excellent agreement was achieved. The model was used to conduct parametric studies on the effect of annuli geometry, thermophysical properties of the phase change materials (PCM), and thermal boundary conditions on the dynamics of phase change. For an initially liquid PCM, it was found that increasing the radii ratio increased the total solidification time. Also, increasing the Biot number at the cooled (heated) boundary and Stefan number of the solid (liquid) PCM, decreased (increased) the solidification time and resulted in a greater (smaller) solid volume fraction at steady state. The application of the developed method was demonstrated by design and analysis of a PCM–air heat exchanger for HVAC systems. The model can also be easily employed for design and optimization of annular PCM systems for all associated applications in a fraction of time needed for computational simulations.

Shabgard, Hamidreza↗

NASA NTRS2019

Model Based Engineering for Software Assurance

NASA's successful development of next generation space vehicles, habitats, and robotic systems will require reliable hardware and software systems. The aim of this initiative is to develop modeling methodology and tools to support Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for software assurance and reliability analysis. This effort expands the Unified Modeling Language (UML) software design models to include fault data for the extraction of Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for software. We explored different modeling approaches to integrate the UML software design models with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) system models to generate an integrated model and reliability tools that take into account software and hardware interfaces.The benefits of this concept directly affect the safety community with quick turnarounds to produce software assurance and reliability analysis artifacts and the ability to visualize failure effects, both hardware and software. The result is enhanced system design integrity and early identification of system risks. This initiative will enable software assurance activities early in the system design lifecycle, facilitating the discovery of design weaknesses and enhancing the capability to produce safe, hazard-free systems

Wang, Lui↗

NASA NTRS1975

Design, fabrication and test of a trace contaminant control system

A trace contaminant control system was designed, fabricated, and evaluated to determine suitability of the system concept to future manned spacecraft. Two different models were considered. The load model initially required by the contract was based on the Space Station Prototype (SSP) general specifications SVSK HS4655, reflecting a change from a 9 man crew to a 6 man crew of the model developed in previous phases of this effort. Trade studies and a system preliminary design were accomplished based on this contaminant load, including computer analyses to define the optimum system configuration in terms of component arrangements, flow rates and component sizing. At the completion of the preliminary design effort a revised contaminant load model was developed for the SSP. Additional analyses were then conducted to define the impact of this new contaminant load model on the system configuration. A full scale foam-core mock-up with the appropriate SSP system interfaces was also fabricated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Program test objectives milestone 3

The following conclusions have been developed relative to propulsion system technology adequacy for efficient development and operation of recoverable and expendable launch vehicles (RLV and ELV) and the benefits which the integrated propulsion technology demonstrator will provide for enhancing technology: (1) Technology improvements relative to propulsion system design and operation can reduce program cost. Many features or improvement needs to enhance operability, reduce cost, and improve payload are identified. (2) The Integrated Propulsion Technology Demonstrator (IPTD) Program provides a means of resolving the majority of issues associated with improvement needs. (3) The IPTD will evaluate complex integration of vehicle and facility functions in fluid management and propulsion control systems, and provides an environment for validating improved mechanical and electrical components. (4) The IPTD provides a mechanism for investigating operational issues focusing on reducing manpower and time to perform various functions at the launch site. These efforts include model development, collection of data to validate subject models, and ultimate development of complex time line models. (5) The IPTD provides an engine test bed for tri/bi-propellant engine development firings which is representative of the actual vehicle environment. (6) The IPTD provides for only a limited multiengine configuration integration environment for RLV. Multiengine efforts may be simulated for a number of subsystems and a number of subsystems are relatively independent of the multiengine influences.

Gaynor, T. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

New Virtual Test Bed Capabilities: Virtual DOME Model and New Updates to Repository

The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy National Reactor Innovation Center accelerates the deployment of novel reactor concepts by establishing both physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed represents the virtual arm of the National Reactor Innovation Center and is a joint effort with the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program. The Virtual Test Bed mission is to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of cutting-edge DOE advanced modeling and simulation tools to design, evaluate, and license reactors. This is primarily achieved by storing example challenge problems in an externally available repository and by developing models to fill the M&S gaps needed for potential demonstrators. Activities conducted this fiscal year focused on developing of a Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model to help accelerate the confirmatory analysis required for the reactor demonstration. This model and workflow will allow developers to leverage advanced modeling and simulation tools to ensure their reactor demonstration concept will meet dose requirements and that the surrounding shield will stay within concrete temperature limits during steady-state and transient operation conditions. An initial model has been developed to evaluate the temperature distribution in the concrete shield during steady-state operation, including neutron and gamma heating effects. Various modeling strategies have been examined to understand their applicability and limitations with different reactor designs to make the workflow as reactor-agnostic as possible and computationally effective to maximize its usability. In addition to describing the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments shield model and associated results, this report summarizes other accomplishments regarding repository maintenance and improvement and new external models hosted on the repository.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multi-Physics Simulations for Molten Salt Reactor Evaluation: Chemistry Modeling and Database Development

To aid in design and licensing of molten salt reactors, a framework integrating the complex interaction of reactor neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and chemistry is being developed within the Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Technology Program’s Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) campaign. The challenges of integrating thermochemical and thermophysical behavior into a multi-physics reactor simulations include the following: (1) population of data needed for refinement of current models and development of nonexistent models through experimental measurements, first principles calculations, and development of a machine learning approach (2) thermochemical and thermophysical model development, (3) further development of Thermochimica, an open-source efficient equilibrium solver used to link thermochemical models to the multi-physics code, (4) a framework for integrating kinetic phenomena: nucleation, precipitation, mass/heat transport, and corrosion models, and (5) a computational environment to efficiently utilize the data and models within a multi-physics modeling tool. These challenges are being addressed through a collaboration among Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, the University of South Carolina, and the University of Ontario Institute of Technology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Prediction of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Reaction Wheel Assembly Angular Momentum Using Regression Analysis

This study determines the feasibility of creating a tool that can accurately predict Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) reaction wheel assembly (RWA) angular momentum, weeks or even months into the future. LRO is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft that was launched on June 18, 2009. While typically nadir-pointing, LRO conducts many types of slews to enable novel science collection. Momentum unloads have historically been performed approximately once every two weeks with the goal of maintaining system total angular momentum below 70 Nms; however flight experience shows the models developed before launch are overly conservative, with many momentum unloads being performed before system angular momentum surpasses 50 Nms. A more accurate model of RWA angular momentum growth would improve momentum unload scheduling and decrease the frequency of these unloads. Since some LRO instruments must be deactivated during momentum unloads and in the case of one instrument, decontaminated for 24 hours there after a decrease in the frequency of unloads increases science collection. This study develops a new model to predict LRO RWA angular momentum. Regression analysis of data from October 2014 to October 2015 was used to develop relationships between solar beta angle, slew specifications, and RWA angular momentum growth. The resulting model predicts RWA angular momentum using input solar beta angle and mission schedule data. This model was used to predict RWA angular momentum from October 2013 to October 2014. Predictions agree well with telemetry; of the 23 momentum unloads performed from October 2013 to October 2014, the mean and median magnitude of the RWA total angular momentum prediction error at the time of the momentum unloads were 3.7 and 2.7 Nms, respectively. The magnitude of the largest RWA total angular momentum prediction error was 10.6 Nms. Development of a tool that uses the models presented herein is currently underway.

LRO↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗