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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination X: Impact Speeds and Directions of Interstellar Grains on the Stardust Dust Collector

On the basis of an interstellar dust model compatible with Ulysses and Galileo observations, we calculate and predict the trajectories of interstellar dust (ISD) in the solar system and the distribution of the impact speeds, directions, and flux of ISD particles on the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector during the two collection periods of the mission. We find that the expected impact velocities are generally low (less than 10 km per second) for particles with the ratio of the solar radiation pressure force to the solar gravitational force beta greater than 1, and that some of the particles will impact on the cometary side of the collector. If we assume astronomical silicates for particle material and a density of 2 grams per cubic centimeter, and use the Ulysses measurements and the ISD trajectory simulations, we conclude that the total number of (detectable) captured ISD particles may be on the order of 50. In companion papers in this volume, we report the discovery of three interstellar dust candidates in the Stardust aerogel tiles. The impact directions and speeds of these candidates are consistent with those calculated from our ISD propagation model, within the uncertainties of the model and of the observations.

interstellar↗
NASA NTRS2016

Identifying and Characterizing Impact Melt Outcrops in the Nectaris Basin

The Nectaris Basin is an 820-km diameter, multi-ring impact basin located on the near side of the Moon. Nectaris is a defining stratigraphic horizon based on relationships between ejecta units, giving its name to the Nectarian epoch of lunar history. Lunar basin chronology based on higher resolution LRO imagery and topography, while assigning some important basins like Serenitatis to pre-Nectarian time, were generally consistent with those previously derived. Based on this stratigraphy, at least 11 large basins formed in the time between Nectaris and Imbrium. The absolute age of Nectaris, therefore, is a crucial marker in the lunar time-stratigraphic sequence for understanding the impact flux on the Moon, and by extension, the entire inner solar system. For several decades, workers have attempted to constrain the age of the Nectaris basin through radiometric dating of lunar samples. However, there is little agreement on which samples in our collection represent Nectaris, if any, and what the correct radiometric age of such samples is. The importance of the age of Nectaris goes far beyond assigning a stratigraphic marker to lunar chronology. Several dynamical models use Nectaris as their pin date, so that this date becomes crucial in understanding the time-correlated effects in the rest of the solar system. The importance of the Nectaris basin age, coupled with its nearside, mid-latitude location, make remnants of the impact-melt sheet an attractive target for a future mission, either for in-situ dating or for sample return. We have started exploring this possibility. We have begun a consortium data-analysis effort bringing multiple datasets and analysis methods to bear on these putative impact-melt deposits to characterize their extent, elemental composition and mineralogy, maturity and geologic setting, and to identify potential landing sites that meet both operational safety and science requirements.

Nectaris Basin↗
NASA NTRS2014

Could Giant Basin-Forming Impacts Have Killed Martian Dynamo?

The observed strong remanent crustal magnetization at the surface of Mars suggests an active dynamo in the past and ceased to exist around early to middle Noachian era, estimated by examining remagnetization strengths in extant and buried impact basins. We investigate whether the Martian dynamo could have been killed by these large basin-forming impacts, via numerical simulation of subcritical dynamos with impact-induced thermal heterogeneity across the core-mantle boundary. We find that subcritical dynamos are prone to the impacts centered on locations within 30 deg of the equator but can easily survive those at higher latitudes. Our results further suggest that magnetic timing places a strong constraint on postimpact polar reorientation, e.g., a minimum 16 deg polar reorientation is needed if Utopia is the dynamo killer.

Martian Dynamo↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decisionmakers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs (observational datasets) and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Vulnerability↗
NASA NTRS2016

Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production and Land Fallowing in California's Central Valley in 2015

The ongoing drought in California substantially reduced surface water supplies for millions of acres of irrigated farmland in California's Central Valley. Rapid assessment of drought impacts on agricultural production can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to mitigation of drought impacts. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and increases in fallow acreage associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. We describe an approach for monthly and seasonal mapping of uncultivated agricultural acreage developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, NASA, and the California Department of Water Resources to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of uncultivated agricultural acreage from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to time-series data from Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper), ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus), OLI (Operational Land Imager), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). Our effort has been focused on development of indicators of drought impacts in the March-August timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted across 650 fields from March-September in 2014 and 2015. We present the algorithm along with updated results from the accuracy assessment, and data and maps of land fallowing in the Central Valley in 2015.

Valleys↗
NASA NTRS2017

Spacecraft Re-Entry Impact Point Targeting Using Aerodynamic Drag

The ability to re-enter the atmosphere at a desired location is important for spacecraft containing components that may survive re-entry. While impact point targeting has traditionally been initiated through impulsive burns with chemical thrusters on large vehicles such as the Space Shuttle, and the Soyuz and Apollo capsules, many small spacecraft do not host thrusters and require an alternative means of impact point targeting to ensure that falling debris do not cause harm to persons or property. This paper discusses the use of solely aerodynamic drag force to perform this targeting. It is shown that by deploying and retracting a drag device to vary the ballistic coefficient of the spacecraft, any desired longitude and latitude on the ground can be targeted provided that the maneuvering begins early enough and the latitude is less than the inclination of the orbit. An analytical solution based on perturbations from a numerically propagated trajectory is developed to map the initial state and ballistic coefficient profile of a spacecraft to its impact point. This allows the ballistic coefficient profile necessary to reach a given target point to be rapidly calculated, making it feasible to generate the guidance for the decay trajectory onboard the spacecraft. The ability to target an impact point using aerodynamic drag will enhance the capabilities of small spacecraft and will enable larger space vehicles containing thrusters to save fuel by more effectively leveraging the available aerodynamic drag.

propagation↗
NASA NTRS2017

Understanding the Effects of Collisional Evolution and Spacecraft Impact Experiments on Comets and Asteroids

Comets and asteroids have endured impacts from other solar system bodies that result in outcomes ranging from catastrophic collisions to regolith evolution due to micrometeorid bombardment of the surface ices and refactory components. Experiments designed to better understand these relics of solar system formation have been conducted on Earth in a laboratory setting, as well as in space through, e.g., the Deep Impact Mission to Comet Tempel 1. Deep Impact fired a high-speed impactor into the roughly 6 km nucleus of the comet. The ejecta plume generated by the impact was studied by both spacecraft instrumentation and groundbased telescopes.

Lederer, S.M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Coupled Radiation and Ablation on the Aerothermodynamics of Meteor Entries

A high-fidelity approach for simulating the aerothermodynamic environments of meteor entries is developed. Two primary components of this model are coupled radiation and coupled ablation. Coupled radiation accounts for the impact of radiation on the flow field energy equations, while coupled ablation explicitly models the injection of ablation products within the flow field and radiation simulations. For a meteoroid with a velocity of 20 km/s, coupled radiation reduces the stagnation point radiative heating by over 60%. For altitudes below 40 km, the impact of coupled radiation on the flow field structure is shown to be fundamentally different, as a result of the large optical thicknesses, than that seen for reentry vehicles, which do not reach such altitudes at velocities greater than 10 km/s. The impact of coupled ablation (with coupled radiation) is shown to provide at least a 70% reduction in the radiative heating relative to the coupled-radiation-only cases. This large reduction is partially the result of the low ionization energies, relative to air species, of ablation products. The low ionization energies of ablation products, such as Mg and Ca, provide strong photoionization and atomic line absorption in regions of the spectrum that air species do not. MgO and CaO are also shown to provide significant absorption. Turbulence is shown to impact the distribution of ablation products through the shock- layer, which results in up to a 100% increase in the radiative heating downstream of the stagnation point. To create a database of heat transfer coefficients the developed model was applied to a range of cases. This database considered velocities ranging from 14 to 20 km/s, altitudes ranging from 20 to 50 km, and nose radii ranging from 1 to 100 m. The heat transfer coefficients from these simulations are below 0.045 for the range of cases (with turbulence), which is significantly lower than the canonical value of 0.1.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Risk Assessment of Cassini Sun Sensor Integrity Due to Hypervelocity Impact of Saturn Dust Particles

A sophisticated interplanetary spacecraft, Cassini is one of the heaviest and most sophisticated interplanetary spacecraft humans have ever built and launched. Since achieving orbit at Saturn in 2004, Cassini has collected science data throughout its four-year prime mission (2004-08), and has since been approved for first and second extended missions through September 2017. In late 2016, the Cassini spacecraft will begin a daring set of ballistic orbits that will hop the rings and dive between the upper atmosphere of Saturn and its innermost D-ring twenty-two times. The "dusty" environment of the inner D-ring region the spacecraft must fly through is hazardous because of the possible damage that dust particles, travelling at speeds as high as 31.4 km/s, can do to spacecraft hardware. During hazardous proximal ring-plane crossings, the Cassini mission operation team plans to point the high-gain antenna to the RAM vector in order to protect most of spacecraft instruments from the incoming energetic ring dust particles. However, this particular spacecraft attitude will expose two Sun sensors (that are mounted on the antenna dish) to the incoming dust particles. High-velocity impacts on the Sun sensor cover glass might penetrate the 2.54-mm glass cover of the Sun sensor. Even without penetration damage, craters created by these impacts on the surface of the cover glass will degrade the transmissibility of light through it. Apart from being directly impacted by the dust particles, the Sun sensors are also threatened by some fraction of ricochet ejecta that are produced by dust particle impacts on the large antenna dish (made of graphite fiber epoxy composite material). Finally, the spacecraft attitude control system must cope with disturbances due to both the translational and angular impulses imparted on the large antenna dish and the long magnetometer boom by the incoming high-velocity projectiles. Analyses performed to quantify the risks the Sun sensors must contend with during these hazardous ring-plane crossings are given in this paper

Lee, Allan Y.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Machine Learning Model.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Micrometeoroid Impacts and Optical Surface Scatter in Space Environment

This presentation will discuss the results of an attempt to use laboratory test data and empirically derived models to quantify the degree of surface damage and associated light scattering that might be expected from hypervelocity particle impacts in space environment. Micrometeoroid sizes are predicted to be predominantly in the mass range 10(exp -5) g or less, with most having diameters near 1 micrometer, but some larger than 120 micrometers, with velocities near 20 km/s. In a laboratory test, latex (p = 1.1 g/cu cm) and iron (7.9 g/cu cm) particles with sizes ranging from 0.75 micrometer to 1.60 micrometer and with velocities ranging from 2.0 km/s to 18.5 km/s, were shot at a dielectric coated gold mirror. Scanning electron and atomic force microscopy were used to measure crater dimensions that were then associated with particle impact energies. These data were then fitted to empirical models derived from solar cell and other spacecraft surface components returned from orbit, as well as studies of impact craters studied on glassy materials returned from the lunar surface, to establish a link between particle energy and impact crater dimension. Published estimates of the Martian and Saturnian meteoroid environments were used as the sources of particle flux estimates. From these data, an estimate of total expected damaged area was computed and this result produced an estimate of expected surface scatter from the modeled environment.

Heaney, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Micrometeoroid Impacts and Optical Scatter in Space Environment

This paper discusses the results of an attempt to use laboratory test data and empirically derived models to quantify the degree of surface damage and associated light scattering that might be expected from hypervelocity particle impacts in space environment. Published descriptions of the interplanetary dust environment were used as the sources of particle mass, size, and velocity estimates. Micrometeoroid sizes are predicted to be predominantly in the mass range 10(exp -5) g or less, with most having diameters near 1 micrometer, but some larger than I20 micrometers, with velocities near 20 kilometers per second. In a laboratory test, latex ( p = 1.1. grams per cubic centimeter) and iron (7.9 grams per cubic centimeter) particles with diameters ranging from 0.75 micrometers to 1.60 micrometers and with velocities ranging from 2.0 kilometers per second to 18.5 kilometers per second, were shot at a Be substrate mirror that had a dielectric coated gold reflecting surface. Scanning electron and atomic force microscopy were used to measure crater dimensions that were then associated with particle impact energies. These data were then fitted to empirical models derived from solar cell and other spacecraft surface components returned from orbit, as well as studies of impact craters studied on glassy materials returned from the lunar surface, to establish a link between particle energy and impact crater dimension. From these data, an estimate of total expected damaged area was computed and this result produced an estimate of expected surface scatter from the modeled environment.

Heaney, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Age Distribution of Lunar Impact-Melt Rocks in Apollo Drive-Tube 68001/2

Apollo 16 double-drive tube 68001 /68002 provides impact and volcanic materials along a depth of approximately 60 cm in five compositional distinct units. 68001 /2 offers the potential to study distinct populations of impact melts with depth to understand how 'gardening' affects these samples. We will use unbiased major-element chemistry, mineralogy, and age to understand the impact history of Apollo 16 landing site. The study demonstrates the techniques that landed missions require to identify lithologies of interest (e.g., impact melts).

Curran, N. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Methodology and Outcomes

For High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) events, testing to evaluate the structural response of primary aircraft structure for design and certification is both expensive and time consuming. This paper discusses current work seeking to assess, develop, and validate appropriate analytical models that accurately predict physical response, damage, and failure modes for large scale composite structures in HEDI events. Four state-of-the-art Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods were employed for this phased project: LS-DYNA MAT162, LS-DYNA MAT261, Smoothed Particle Galerkin (SPG), and EMU Peridynamics. Multiple material systems were considered, namely T700/5208 textile-infusion triaxial braid, T800/AMD-825 textile-infusion triaxial braid, IM7/8552 uni-directional tape, and SPG 196-PW/8552 plain-weave fabric. Extensive ballistic impact testing was performed to support this activity and measured results were compared to predictive models for assessment using panel delamination, panel displacement, force at the load cells, and threshold velocity as measures. Ultimately, the work under this activity provided significant progress in advancing the state-of-the-art in the use of PDA for HEDI events. Each material model had favorable performance comparing to test in some parameters and needed improvement in others. With the lessons learned from this activity, significant progress was made in the ability to predict panel behavior for a more general case beyond the flat panel in a ballistic impact event. Subsequent Phase II of the NASA ACC HEDI effort will continue to build on the coupon testing, flat panel ballistic impact testing, and analysis performed to-date with application of the PDA methods for intended material selections to test articles with greater complexity of configuration, curvature, and scale. It is not the intention of this paper to present a full set of data, but rather to give an overview of the NASA HEDI effort and show a small representative subset of the test and analysis results.

Hunziker, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF ( Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) V4 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by the satellite at approximately 1 centimeter) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3 meters). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from the GMAO S2S reanalyses that assimilates/withholds along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the overestimated 2014 El Nino, the big 2015 El Nino, and the minor 2016 La Nina. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrades the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction.

Hackert, E.↗