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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship

Dobson total ozone data from 1970-1984 and stratospheric Umkehr profile ozone data from 1970-1981 are analyzed. The relationship between ozone and long-term solar cycle activity is examined using 10.7 cm solar flux data. From the Dobson data it is estimated that the overall global trend in total ozone is -0.26 + or -0.92 percent per decade, which indicates no significant overall trend; and for the total ozone-solar flux relationship there is a 1.18 + or - 0.66 percent change in total ozone from solar cycle minimum to maximum that reveals a positive relationship. Analysis of the Umkehr data reveals a negative trend of -0.30 + or - 0.17 percent per year in the layers 7 snd 8. The relationship between Umkehr data and solar flux in layers 6 and 7 is 2.57 + or - 1.25 percent and 3.40 + or - 2.16 percent change from solar cycle minimum to maximum; however, no significant relationship is detected in the higher layers 8 and 9. These estimates are compared with theoretical model calculations. It is noted that the estimated effects of solar cycle activity on total ozone and stratospheric ozone agree with calculations of photochemical models.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗

Spectral characterization of flash and high flux x-ray radiographic sources with a magnetic Compton spectrometer

In this article, we present a new analysis method applied to revitalize permanent magnet Compton spectrometers used to measure photon energy spectra in the MeV range. The inversion of the measured electron distribution to determine the original photon distribution is achieved via a method of consistent coupled radiation transport and magnetic field mapping of the input photon spectra to the measured electron distribution. The method of linear least squares was used to perform the unfolding of the electron distribution to the initial photon spectra, without any assumptions made regarding the electron distribution. We present an application of this method to data from a nominal 19.4 MeV flash radiographic source (the first axis of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydro-Test Facility) capable of generating 500 R @ 1 m in ~60 ns and a medical therapy source (a Scanditronix M22, Microtron) capable of variable energies with nominal endpoints of 6, 10, 15, and 20 MeV and an output of ~1000–2000 R/min @ 1 m. The results provide agreement between the modeled and unfolded experimentally measured photon spectra as quantified by statistical tests, from 1.5 to 20 MeV. Experimental results are presented as well as a discussion of the novel MCNP6-based simulations and methods for reconstruction of the spectra.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Generating mock galaxy catalogues for flux-limited samples like the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey

ABSTRACT Accurate mock galaxy catalogues are crucial to validate analysis pipelines used to constrain dark energy models. We present a fast HOD-fitting method which we apply to the AbacusSummit simulations to create a set of mock catalogues for the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey, which contain r-band magnitudes and $(g-r)$ colours. The halo tabulation method fits HODs for different absolute magnitude threshold samples simultaneously, preventing unphysical HOD crossing between samples. We validate the HOD fitting procedure by fitting to real-space clustering measurements and galaxy number densities from the MXXL BGS mock, which was tuned to the SDSS and GAMA surveys. The best-fitting clustering measurements and number densities are mostly within the assumed errors, but the clustering for the faint samples is low on large scales. The best-fitting HOD parameters are robust when fitting to simulations with different realizations of the initial conditions. When varying the cosmology, trends are seen as a function of each cosmological parameter. We use the best-fitting HOD parameters to create cubic box and cut sky mocks from the AbacusSummit simulations, in a range of cosmologies. As an illustration, we compare the ${}^{0.1}M_r\lt -20$ sample of galaxies in the mock with BGS measurements from the DESI one-percent survey. We find good agreement in the number densities, and the projected correlation function is reasonable, with differences that can be improved in the future by fitting directly to BGS clustering measurements. The cubic box and cut-sky mocks in different cosmologies are made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics (Blodgett, CA)

This dataset contains data on daily soil temperature, moisture and flux, and soil carbon stock and root biomass across a soil profile down to 100 cm depth at Blodgett Forest Research Station, CA, USA. These data were generated to determine if modeling of an experimental soil warming of 4C showed increased soil CO2 emissions and changes in bulk soil carbon stocks with depth consistent with field observations, as part of the study: Riley et al. (2025) Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. This research was performed within the framework of the TES Belowground Biogeochemistry SFA project, in particular association with a 1 m-deep experimental soil heating experiment at the University of California Blodgett Forest Research Station, California (120 ° 39′40′′W; 38 ° 54′43′′N). Continuous data were collected at the plot level, and bulk soil carbon and root biomass were sampled once a year from each plot from 0-100 cm, in 10 cm intervals. Measurements relevant to the current study include soil temperature and soil volumetric water content measured continuously at multiple depths in the top meter; fine root biomass and SOC stocks measured from annual soil cores. Soil flux was continuously monitored using a LI-8100 Automated CO2 Flux System in conjunction with the LI-8150 Multiplexer (Licor, Nebraska, USA). Soil flux was determined using SoilFluxPro software, with flux values showing an R² fit of less than 0.9 being excluded from the analysis. Data were collected from each paired plot (1-3): one control (C) and one heated (H).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 1. Theoretical Analysis and Examples from MODIS

Theoretical and satellite-based assessments of the sensitivity of broadband shortwave radiative fluxes in cloudy atmospheres to small perturbations in the cloud droplet number concentration (N) of liquid water clouds under constant water conditions are performed. Two approaches to study this sensitivity are adopted: absolute increases in N, for which the radiative response is referred to as absolute cloud susceptibility, and relative increases in N or relative cloud susceptibility. Estimating the former is more challenging as it requires an assumed value for either cloud liquid water content or geometrical thickness; both susceptibilities require an assumed relationship between the droplet volume and effective radius. Expanding upon previous susceptibility studies, present radiative calculations include the effect of AN perturbations on droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, in addition to extinction. Absolute cloud susceptibility has a strong nonlinear dependence on the droplet effective radius as expected, while relative cloud susceptibility is primarily dependent on optical thickness. Molecular absorption and reflecting surfaces both reduce the relative contribution of the cloud to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux and therefore also reduce the TOA albedo susceptibility. Transmittance susceptibilities are negative with absolute values similar to albedo susceptibility, while atmospheric absorptance susceptibilities are about an order of magnitude smaller than albedo susceptibilities and can be either positive or negative. Observation-based susceptibility calculations are derived from MODIS pixel-level retrievals of liquid water cloud optical thickness, effective radius, and cloud top temperature; two data granule examples are shown. Susceptibility quantifies the aerosol indirect effect sensitivity in a way that can be easily computed from model fields. As such, susceptibilities derived from MODIS observations provide a higher-order test of model cloud properties used for indirect effect studies. MODIS-derived global distributions of cloud susceptibility and radiative forcing calculations are presented in a companion paper.

Platnick, Steven↗

Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

Zeng, Fan-Wei↗

Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

dust storms↗

Enclosure fire modeling

A fire characterization methodology is presented, which for the first time provides a unified analysis framework for the integration of all fire tests data on a common basis. Fire temperatures, smoke densities, toxic gas concentrations and heat fluxes to material properties, enclosure geometry, and ventilation factors are provided in this fire characterization approach. The fire characterization methodology was used to develop an enclosure fire hazards analysis procedure capable of predicting the probable course in fire prevention.

Coulbert, C. D.↗

The winds of high luminosity late-type bright stars

The occurrence and characteristics of the Fe II line asymmetries were studied to determine the radial dependence of the wind velocity for each star. The dependence of the Fe II profiles on spectral type and luminosity class and thus the variation of the velocity fields with stellar type was also investigated. This allows the generality of the results reported for alpha Ori by Carpenter (1984b) to be judged. In addition, new atomic data was used along with observations of the C II (UV 0.01) multiplet to estimate N(sub e) in the stellar winds. Measures of relative Fe II fluxes can be used in a probability-of-escape model to determine the opacity and hydrogen column density versus height in the chromosphere of each star. Finally, analysis of the fluorescent Fe II lines (pumped by Ly alpha) near 2507 A will yield estimates of the intrinsic stellar Ly alpha flux that cannot be measured directly because of interstellar and circumstellar absorption. One important goal of the effort was to acquire high resolution spectra of the whole 2300 to 3200 A region of 13 luminous K and M stars as a data base that will be enormously valuable in planning observations with the Hubble Space Telescope High Resolution Spectrograph. It is also proposed to follow up the recent discovery of significant variations in the Fe II chromospheric emission line profiles from the M-giant Gamma Cru for the purpose of determining the underlying cause of the variations.

Stencel, Robert E.↗

Assessing the Variability of Radiation, Water and Energy in the Deep Tropics Over the Last 3 Decades

Global surface energy closure and its variability depends heavily upon the surface radiative energy budget in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance is observed between energy and water fluxes in terms of energy closure in some atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process has wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures. In this presentation, we assess the surface radiative budget in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES Ed4.1, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the variability across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present. We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear. We include further analysis contrasting 6 key tropical oceanic regions (Indian Ocean east and west, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean) and the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work.

Radiation budget↗

Comparative solar EUV flux for the San Marco ASSI

The Airglow and Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco D/L satellite has measured solar extreme ultraviolet irradiances. The data are currently being released for analysis. As a preliminary step in evaluating this important dataset, modeled solar irradiances from 4 to 105 nm are presented for comparison to the San Marco data. The comparable flux for March-December 1988 is obtained from a revised and extended empirical solar EUV model derived from OSO 1, OSO 3, OSO 4, OSO 6, AEROS A, and AE-E satellite and six rocket flight datasets. Solar rotational features are prominent on several occasions in the model time series. A useful example is the modeled integrated flux between 30-31 nm which includes the Si XI (30.3-nm) and He II (30.4-nm) irradiance. The modeled flux in this 1-nm range shows both an absolute 22 percent increase from beginning to end of mission and a solar rotational variability with a typical peak-to-valley ratio of 14 percent.

Tobiska, W. K.↗

Dynamic-Phasor Model of Transformer Inrush Simulation for Unbalanced Distribution System

Abstract— Power system stability is a critical concern, with respect to the increasing distributed energy resources, microgrids, and emphasis on enhancing resiliency. For stability analysis and evaluation, modeling and simulation capabilities are important. In this paper, the authors’ previous work on modeling transformer inrush dynamics is improved with a new formulation of the key equation that converts the dynamic-phasor into real-time value. Simulation results in an electromechanical time-scale are compared with PSCAD results in an electromagnetic time-scale to demonstrate the improvement. The impact of simulation step size is discussed. A bug in PSCAD transformer setting that leads to incorrect magnetizing flux and current under Delta winding type is identified and reported. In addition, explanations and analysis are provided on two modeling techniques utilized since the previous work. This work is being incorporated into the next release of GridLAB-D. The improved transformer inrush calculation enables more accurate predictions of current amplitudes for analyzing the dynamics of distribution operation and control.

power transformers, power system simulation, satur↗

RXTE and BATSE Observations of the Recent Outbursts of 2S 1417-624

25 1417-624 is a 57 mHz transient Be/X-ray pulsar system first discovered by SAS 3 in 1978. After the discovery outburst it was not seen again until 1994 when BATSE observed an outburst that peaked at 40 Srab (pulsed flux, 20-50 keV) and lasted 110 days, followed by a series of 5 shorter, 10-15 mCrab outbursts occurring every 42 days. Pulse timing analysis showed that these smaller outbursts began a few days after periastron passage of the system's eccentric, 42 day period orbit. Renewed activity from the source was detected by BATSE beginning in 1999 November. BATSE monitoring shows a 10 mCrab peak flux outburst lasting 10 days, followed in the next orbit by a 30 mCrab peak flux outburst, which to date has lasted 56 days. Regular monitoring with RXTE began during the 1999 November outburst and has continued in to the current outburst. The data provides good coverage of the low flux state between BATSE detections, which includes the periastron passage. Pulses are detected through this interval, showing that the source did not enter the propeller regime. The PCA monitoring from the lowest flux level, which occurs shortly before periastron, until the peak of the current outburst, show a continuous evolution of the pulse profile. These profiles contain a narrow notch feature which allow us to present a phase aligned history of this pulse evolution. We present a timing analysis of the PCA and BATSE observations that provide corrections to the binary orbit, and measurements of the torque during the observations. From the observed torque and flux we show that disc accretion is occurring in the current outburst, most probably was also occurring in the smaller outburst.

Finger, M. H.↗

COS-B observations of localized sources of gamma-ray emission

In October 1975, the high-energy gamma-ray flux from the Vela pulsar measured by COS-B was found to be 1.6 to 2.1 times higher than the flux measured by SAS-2 in 1973. This factor is too large to be accounted for by error in the COS-B calibration or analysis. This is supported by a comparison of the COS-B measurement of the narrow-line component from the galactic center region with the flux derived from the measurements of SAS-2; the COS-B flux comes out about 15 percent lower than the SAS-2 figure. It is interesting to note that a glitch in the pulsar period took place about 1 month prior to the COS-B observation; the previous glitch occurred about 1.5 years before the SAS-2 observation. The increased rotational energy loss after the glitch cannot simply explain the increased gamma-ray luminosity. If the two phenomena are related, the gamma-ray emission, absorption, or beaming process must be extremely sensitive to changes in rotational parameters. The existence is confirmed of a second region of enhanced radiation in the galactic anticenter in addition to that from the Crab pulsar.

Source record↗

Analysis of IUE data on V426 Ophiuchi - Outburst and orbital variability

Time-resolved IUE spectra throughout two orbits of the dwarf nova V426 Oph during quiescence are presented. It is found that the visual and C IV fluxes remain relatively constant during both orbits, whereas the UV coninua and Mg II lines vary by 20-30 percent. The time scales of this variability are discussed. Analysis of other spectra at brighter optical magnitudes shows that the UV lags the optical during a probable rise to outburst, similar to the behavior of SS Cyg. The reddening of V426 Oph is determined to be E(B-V) = 0.1. The contribution of the white dwarf to the UV flux at quiescence is estimated to be 25 percent, based on the system parameters of Hessman (1988) and the period-temperature relation of Sion (1987).

Szkody, Paula↗

Long-term variability in bright hard X-ray sources: 5+ years of BATSE data

The operation of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO)/burst and transient source experiment (BATSE) continues to provide data for inclusion into a data base for the analysis of long term variability in bright, hard X-ray sources. The all-sky capability of BATSE provides up to 30 flux measurements/day for each source. The long baseline and the various rising and setting occultation flux measurements allow searches for periodic and quasi-periodic signals with periods of between several hours to hundreds of days to be conducted. The preliminary results from an analysis of the hard X-ray variability in 24 of the brightest BATSE sources are presented. Power density spectra are computed for each source and profiles are presented of the hard X-ray orbital modulations in some X-ray binaries, together with amplitude modulations and variations in outburst durations and intensities in recurrent X-ray transients.

Robinson, C. R.↗

Performance evaluation of neutron noise analysis in detecting special nuclear materials

Reliable and rapid inspection techniques play a vital role in preventing illicit trafficking of special nuclear materials. Active interrogation systems using neutrons produced by portable, high-flux deuterium-deuterium or deuterium-tritium neutron generators are being actively developed as a secondary scanning tool for this purpose. In this study, a neutron noise analysis-based approach for detecting unshielded and shielded special nuclear materials by using a pulsed deuterium-tritium neutron generator was evaluated. Here, this approach analyzes the fluctuation of neutron counts. Its performance was quantified with regard to time-to-detection to achieve a minimum probability of detection of 99% and a probability of false alarm of less than 1% considering various amounts of special nuclear materials and different shielding configurations. It was demonstrated that this approach could detect 17 uranium slugs in 5 s given a neutron generator yield of 8.1 × 10 7 n/s. These slugs could be detected within a reasonable time frame (200 s) when they were shielded by 10.16 cm of high-density polyethylene. The results obtained using the neutron noise analysis approach were compared with those obtained using the commonly used differential die-away analysis technique, a sensitive technique for detecting the presence of fissile materials by utilizing the prompt fission neutrons produced when the source neutrons from a neutron generator are completely diminished. For example, the time to detect 2 unshielded uranium slugs was 2.1 s when using the differential die-away analysis technique; it increased to 93 s for the neutron noise analysis approach. Although the noise analysis-based approach exhibits an overall performance which is not as good as that of differential die-away, neutron noise provides an alternative method for effective detection of special nuclear materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗