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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Urban Services: Program Impact and Business Plan Summary

The Integrated Urban Services (IUS) program, launched in 2021 and funded by the U.S. State Department under the United States-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (US-ASEAN) Smart Cities Partnership, aimed to bolster resilience in ASEAN cities by addressing challenges across food, energy, and water systems. Led by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) with support from Regenerative Impact Ventures, the program focused on demonstrating the socio-economic benefits of integrated urban planning, educating stakeholders on circular economy principles, providing technical assistance to two ASEAN cities, and attracting private sector involvement. The program facilitated peer learning events, engaging public and private sector participants and leveraging knowledge from a group of global experts to inform approaches and best practices. Technical assistance was provided to two pilot cities, Iskandar Malaysia and Cagayan de Oro, Philippines, resulting in the development of market-driven business plans for resilient, circular, and regenerative energy-water-food system projects. The Iskandar Malaysia pilot focused on development of a state-of-the-art AgriTech Innovation Hub and Modern Farming Complex to enhance agricultural productivity and produce enough renewable energy to power the facilities. The Cagayan de Oro project aimed to enhance urban agricultural productivity and waste management through development of an Urban Precision Agricultural Complex featuring aeroponics, hydroponics, aquaponics, agrivoltaics, and a Black Solider Fly Facility for converting municipal solid waste into commodities. The success of the IUS program sets a precedent for replicating integrated urban service models globally, offering valuable insights for cities aiming to enhance their resilience and sustainability.

ASEAN↗
DOE OSTI2017

Particle acceleration in relativistic magnetic flux-merging events

Using analytical and numerical methods (fluid and particle-in-cell simulations) we study a number of model problems involving merger of magnetic flux tubes in relativistic magnetically dominated plasma. Mergers of current-carrying flux tubes (exemplified by the two-dimensional ‘ABC’ structures) and zero-total-current magnetic flux tubes are considered. In all cases regimes of spontaneous and driven evolution are investigated. We identify two stages of particle acceleration during flux mergers: (i) fast explosive prompt X-point collapse and (ii) ensuing island merger. The fastest acceleration occurs during the initial catastrophic X-point collapse, with the reconnection electric field of the order of the magnetic field. During the X-point collapse, particles are accelerated by charge-starved electric fields, which can reach (and even exceed) values of the local magnetic field. The explosive stage of reconnection produces non-thermal power-law tails with slopes that depend on the average magnetization $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ . For plasma magnetization $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}\leqslant 10^{2}$ the spectrum power-law index is $p>2$ ; in this case the maximal energy depends linearly on the size of the reconnecting islands. For higher magnetization, $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}\geqslant 10^{2}$ , the spectra are hard, $p<2$ , yet the maximal energy $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}_{\text{max}}$ can still exceed the average magnetic energy per particle, ${\sim}\unicode[STIX]{x1D70E}$ , by orders of magnitude (if $p$ is not too close to unity). The X-point collapse stage is followed by magnetic island merger that dissipates a large fraction of the initial magnetic energy in a regime of forced magnetic reconnection, further accelerating the particles, but proceeds at a slower reconnection rate.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Efforts to Gain Insight into Historical Leak Events from the Single-Shell Tank A-105 in the Hanford 241-A Tank Farm - 20113

The 241-A Tank Farm is a single-shell tank (SST) farm constructed to store process waste from Hanford nuclear operations. Millions of gallons of nuclear waste were stored in the 241-A Tank Farm SSTs and some of the SSTs leaked in the past. In addition, spills and pipeline leaks during transfers and storage and intentional discharges to cribs and trenches resulted in releasing waste to the ground. Tank liner leaks are referred to as 'leaks' and all other discharges to the soil are referred to as 'releases.' Liquid waste that could be removed by pumping has been removed from all of the SSTs to reduce the potential for future leaks. The most significant historical leak event in 241-A Tank Farm occurred in 1965 when tank A-105 experienced a pressurized steam event. This event resulted in damage to the inner steel liner flooring of A-105, which was separated from the sidewalls over part of its circumference and buckled up to 2.5 m, vertically. During this event up to 7,570 L of contaminated liquid may have leaked to the adjacent soil. This leak occurred under extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Modeling efforts to better understand the nature and extent of historical leaks from subsurface SSTs that were used to store highly radioactive, self-boiling liquid wastes at 241-A Tank Farm have recently been undertaken. These efforts have compiled the available historical information to support a preliminary non-isothermal, multiphase flow and chemical transport modeling effort to re-create the conditions under which the leaks occurred and to formulate a conceptual model as to the extent and distribution of leaked radioactive contaminants in the adjacent soil material. The focus of this work was on developing an understanding of the key features, processes and bounding conditions related to tank A-105 leak events that occurred in the 1960's. The activities include estimation of leak composition, non-isothermal multiphase flow and transport modeling, and geochemical modeling. The STOMP{sup C} Water-Air-Energy modeling code was utilized to implement the three-dimensional representation of the subsurface tank and the surrounding flow field. Once constructed, the model was used to evaluate the conceptual understanding of leaks originating from different parts of the tank under the elevated temperature boundary conditions that were imposed by surrounding tanks at the time of the historical leaks. The chemical evolution of the liquid waste was also evaluated as it leaked from the tank under transient pressure and temperature gradients. The results of the preliminary evaluation suggested the presence of a heat-pipe effect beneath tank A-105 in which water vapor at an elevated temperature is driven away from the base of the tank to a position where water vapor cools, condenses and is then drawn back toward the tank by the strong capillary attraction of the dry soil. A non-sorbing contaminant (Tc-99) was introduced into this flow field to better understand the potential distribution patterns of leaked contaminants that may have occurred during the historical leak events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2020

Potential of GPM IMERG Precipitation Estimates to Monitor Natural Disaster Triggers in Urban Areas: the Case of Rio deJaneiro, Brazil

Extreme rainfall can be a catastrophic trigger for natural disaster events at urban scales. However, there remains large uncertainties as to how satellite precipitation can identify these triggers at a city scale. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of satellite-based rainfall estimates to monitor natural disaster triggers in urban areas. Rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are evaluated over the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where urban floods and landslides occur periodically as a result of extreme rainfall events. Two rainfall products derived from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), the IMERG Early and IMERG Final products, are integrated into the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model in order to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of two key hydrometeorological disaster triggers across the city over the wet seasons during 2001-2019. Here, total runoff (TR) and rootzone soil moisture (RZSM) are considered as flood and landslide triggers, respectively. Ground-based observations at 33 pluviometric stations are interpolated, and the resulting rainfall fields are used in an in-situ precipitation-based simulation, considered as the reference for evaluating the IMERG-driven simulations. The evaluation is performed during the wet seasons (November-April), when average rainfall over the city is 4.4mm/day. Results show that IMERG products show low spatial variability at the city scale, generally overestimate rainfall rates by 12-35%, and impacts on TR and RZSM vary spatially mostly as a function of land cover and soil types. Results based on statistical and categorical metrics show that IMERG skill in detecting extreme events is moderate, with IMERG Final performing slightly better for most metrics. By analyzing two recent storms, we observe that IMERG detects mostly hourly extreme events, but underestimates rainfall rates, resulting in underestimated TR and RZSM. An evaluation of normalized time series using percentiles shows that both satellite products have significantly improved skill in detecting extreme events when compared to the evaluation using absolute values, indicating that IMERG precipitation could be potentially used as a predictor for natural disasters in urban areas.

IMERG↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours (hours per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemically Driven Multistep Crystallization in the Synthesis of Sodium Yttrium Fluoride Via a Porous, Electrochemically Active Intermediate

Two-step crystallization mechanisms based on liquid–liquid phase separations followed by crystallization are commonly observed both in the laboratory and in nature. While this pathway quite often occurs as a result of a chemical reaction, the subsequent nucleation and growth are often considered as separate, discrete events from the reaction itself. We show this mechanism in the aqueous synthesis sodium yttrium fluoride, but by using a combination of experimental techniques and computational modeling, we show an additional step of solid-state chemical diffusion that is essential to the nucleation mechanism. In this system, we observe at least four distinct steps in the crystallization process, including (1) the segregation of aqueous ions into a dense liquid phase, (2) the formation of a metastable amorphous aggregate, (3) the continuous, gradual solid-state diffusion of sodium and fluoride ions into the amorphous aggregate toward a NaYF4 stoichiometry, and (4) the crystallization of a stable cubic sodium yttrium fluoride phase. Unlike previous descriptions of nucleation and growth, we find that the stoichiometry of the final solid phase evolves throughout the crystallization process rather than being determined at the time of the initial separation from solution. Further, this emphasizes that the chemical reaction cannot be assumed to be a separate event from the phase separation and growth, especially in compounds with variable stoichiometry. We also find that the amorphous aggregate that forms prior to the ion incorporation step adopts a porous, gel-like structure, which we isolated and showed to be electrochemically active, allowing for its potential use as a battery anode in lithium and sodium ion batteries, among other potential applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1992

The pulsating magnetosphere and flux transfer events

The possible sources of magnetic field variations in the magnetosphere, the precipitation of energetic particles, and auroral emissions are investigated using magnetic field observations from the GOES 5, GOES 6, AMPTE/CCE, and Viking satellites and a ground station. An analysis of the observations supports the view that the magnetosphere often varies in a periodic way because of its own resonant processes and processes driven by the solar wind. UV images from Viking are used to examine the patterns of precipitating particles in the lower ionosphere.

Potemra, T. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing major and trace element compositions in fallout melt glass from a near-surface nuclear test

We report the chemical and isotopic compositions of fallout melt glasses from nuclear tests contain a range of information constraining the physical conditions within the fireball and the mechanisms of fallout formation but historic studies tended to exclude the behavior of stable major and trace elements. Here, we present a large study specifically focused on major and trace element relationships within a population of macroscale fallout samples from a single event. We interpret these data to better constrain how fallout melt glass formation in near surface environments is influenced by that environment and demonstrate how major and trace element abundances can provide useful insights into chemical processes within the fireball. Data confirm that the uranium in the fallout glass population derives from two isotopically distinct endmembers: isotopically enriched uranium (presumably from the weapon), and natural composition uranium that may be a combination of anthropogenic and environmental materials from within the blast zone. The similarity between major and trace element concentrations in fallout and corresponding local soils from the event site confirm the local soils as the most probable source of entrained material into the fireball and the source of carrier material into which the bomb vapor was incorporated. The lack of correlation between major and trace element abundances with size indicates that volatility driven processes, such as condensation from the fireball, do not control the composition of macroscale fallout melt glass. Although the fallout has major and trace element chemical characteristics broadly similar to those of the local, associated soils, some systematic differences are observed between the two populations. Fallout melt glass is depleted in volatile elements such as K, Na, Tl and Pb, consistent with heating to temperatures above ~1000 °C for 3-10 s. This is supported by the results of laser heating experiments performed on rhyolitic soil at temperatures (1600-2200 °C) and timescales (1-120 s) that are broadly relevant to fallout formation conditions. Relative enrichments of metals such as Cu and Co do not correlate with the abundance of uranium, suggesting that fallout also records input of near field anthropogenic materials. Our observations suggest that major chemical features can be related to processing in the fireball and used to inform the thermal-chemical evolution of the system. Ultimately, these data are consistent with a fallout formation mechanism that involves rapid melting of surface materials to form carrier material melts with minor incorporation of bomb vapor and a degree of volumetric volatile loss due to heating.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A linked-scale coupled model of mass erosion and redistribution in plasma-exposed micro-foam surfaces

Surface evolution due to exposure to harsh environments is of importance in many scientific and technological applications. In plasma-exposed materials, the surface receives charged particles from the plasma, leading to a series of processes that drive the system far from equilibrium and may lead to the severe deterioration of the surface properties. Although surface morphological changes are driven by atomic collisions taking place over picoseconds and nanometers, these processes result in mass loss and redistribution of matter over much larger length and time scales. This necessitates a multi-scale approach capable of capturing the range of processes linking primary atomic collision events with engineering-level surface geometry changes. In this paper, we develop a computational model to simulate the morphological evolution and effective erosion rate of micro-architected tungsten foams during low-energy plasma ion bombardment. Furthermore, the model acts on several length scales, with the energy and angular dependence of the sputtering yield of flat tungsten surfaces determined using the SRIM code based on the binary collision approximation. This information is introduced into a low-fluence, short-term Monte Carlo raytracing model, and further into a high-fluence, long-term particle transport model. In the latter, material particles representing billions of atoms are described in a digitized 3-D representation of the foam structure from X-ray tomography data, and are sputtered off and redeposited using the atomistic information. We show that the redeposition of sputtered atoms leads to partial self-healing in the bottom layers with a sharp reduction in the sputtering coefficient of low density foams, roughly 25% of the solid W value. This is in qualitative agreement with recent experiments on low porosity W structures. At high fluence, the foam structure degrades considerably as there are fewer ligaments available to recapture sputtered atoms and, consequently, the sputtering rate increases again.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

A fast low-to-high confinement mode bifurcation dynamics in the boundary-plasma gyrokinetic code XGC1

Here, a fast edge turbulence suppression event has been simulated in the electrostatic version of the gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC1 in a realistic diverted tokamak edge geometry under neutral particle recycling. The results show that the sequence of turbulent Reynolds stress followed by neoclassical ion orbit-loss driven together conspire to form the sustaining radial electric field shear and to quench turbulent transport just inside the last closed magnetic flux surface. As a result, the main suppression action is located in a thin radial layer around ψ N ≃0.96–0.98, where ψ N is the normalized poloidal flux, with the time scale ~0.1 ms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging BERT and Network-Based Attention Analysis for Identifying Treatment Milestones in EHRs

This study introduces a sophisticated data-driven framework for analyzing Electronic Health Records (EHRs) using transformer-based models to identify and disentangle overlapping treatment contexts. The framework leverages a preprocessing pipeline that transforms structured procedural codes into semantically enriched descriptive text, enabling the use of attention mechanisms to cluster medical events into treatment milestones—cohesive and distinct components of care processes. The methodology is rigorously validated using synthetic datasets derived from the MIMIC-III database, designed to simulate the heterogeneity and overlapping procedural contexts characteristic of real-world EHR scenarios. Quantitative evaluation highlights the framework’s robustness in disentangling concurrent care pathways, with attention metrics and unsupervised clustering approaches demonstrating the ability to preserve intra-context relationships while distinguishing inter-context dependencies. By addressing challenges inherent in data heterogeneity, this approach provides a foundation for uncovering complex treatment patterns, advancing clinical decision-making, and optimizing resource allocation in diverse healthcare environments.

Kim, Minsu [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000224185535)↗
DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

4th TDAMM Workshop White Paper

Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (TDAMM) is entering a fundamentally new phase characterized by an unprecedented increase in the rate and diversity of astrophysical transient detections. The community is transitioning from a discovery-limited to a follow-up-limited era, driven by major investments across electromagnetic, gravitational-wave, and neutrino observatories. Upcoming facilities such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and wide-field survey instruments will produce a deluge of time-domain alerts, reaching millions of events per night. Simultaneously, upgrades to the gravitational-wave network (LVK O5 and beyond) and neutrino observatories (IceCube Gen2) will significantly increase the detection rates of non-electromagnetic messengers. New high-energy missions and expansions of the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) will further enhance discovery capabilities across the gamma-ray and X-ray regimes. This convergence of capabilities represents a transformative opportunity: for the first time, the community will routinely detect rare and high-impact events across multiple messengers. However, the scientific return from these discoveries will depend critically on the ability to rapidly identify, prioritize, and coordinate follow-up observations across a heterogeneous and globally distributed set of facilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

ML Clustering to Identify Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

The network of more than 2.5 million miles of natural gas pipelines the U.S. are exposed to a range of vulnerabilities, ranging from extreme weather, to human behavior, and increasingly, to cyber threats. Advanced, data-driven analytics, including the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence, afford an opportunity to identify potential vulnerabilities, better understand risks, and help mitigate vulnerabilities in the network. At NETL, machine learning is being used to explore pipeline vulnerabilities and identify significant clusters of failure events, including failures due to weather, human behavior, and materials. These findings are being used to support the development of new technologies, including sensors, but can also be used to evaluate and inform mitigation strategies to reduce risks and vulnerabilities throughout the network.

Bauer, Jennifer↗
DOE OSTI2026

Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei Powered by Disk Tearing

Changing-look active galactic nuclei (CLAGN) feature order-of-magnitude variability in both the continuum and broad line luminosities on months-to-years-long timescales, and are currently unexplained. Simulations have demonstrated that rotating black holes (BHs) sometimes tear apart tilted accretion disks. These tearing events violently restructure the disk on timescales much shorter than a viscous timescale, hinting at a connection to CLAGN. Here, we show that disk tearing can power changing-look events. We report synthetic observations of an extremely high-resolution, three-dimensional, general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a geometrically thin, tilted accretion disk around a rapidly rotating, 10 8 M ⊙ BH. We perform ray-tracing calculations that follow the thermal disk emission to both a line-of-sight camera and to a distribution of cameras in a prescribed torus-like broad-line region (BLR). The continuum photoionizes the BLR, and we calculate the resulting spectrum. Both the continuum and line luminosities undergo order-of-magnitude swings on months-to-years-long timescales. We find shorter, week-long variability driven by the geometric precession of the inner disk and an intraday quasiperiodic oscillation driven by radial breathing of the inner disk. When the torn disk precesses, it causes asymmetric illumination of the BLR, driving time-evolving red-to-blue asymmetries of the broad emission lines that may be a smoking gun for disk tearing. We also make predictions for future photometric observations from ULTRASAT and Vera Rubin Observatory, given a Shakura–Sunyaev–like effective temperature profile, both of which may play an important role in detecting future changing-look events. Future work should consider nonthermal emission, especially from the time-variable corona.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Thermal Conductivity and Phonon Scattering Processes of ALD Grown PbTe–PbSe Thermoelectric Thin Films

Abstract This work studies the thermal conductivity and phonon scattering processes in a series of n‐type lead telluride‐lead selenide (PbTe–PbSe) nanostructured thin films grown by atomic layer deposition (ALD). The ALD growth of the PbTe–PbSe samples in this work results in nonepitaxial films grown directly on native oxide/Si substrates, where the Volmer–Weber mode of growth promotes grains with a preferred columnar orientation. The ALD growth of these lead‐rich PbTe, PbSe, and PbTe–PbSe thin films results in secondary oxide phases, along with an increase microstructural quality with increased film thickness. The compositional variation and resulting point and planar defects in the PbTe–PbSe nanostructures give rise to additional phonon scattering events that reduce the thermal conductivity below that of the corresponding ALD‐grown control PbTe and PbSe films. Temperature‐dependent thermal conductivity measurements show that the phonon scattering in these ALD‐grown PbTe–PbSe nanostructured materials, along with ALD‐grown PbTe and PbSe thin films, are driven by extrinsic defect scattering processes as opposed to phonon–phonon scattering processes intrinsic to the PbTe or PbSe phonon spectra. The implication of this work is that polycrystalline, nanostructured ALD composites of thermoelectric PbTe–PbSe films are effective in reducing the phonon thermal conductivity, and represent a pathway for further improvement of the figure of merit ( ZT ), enhancing their thermoelectric application potential.

DeCoster, Mallory E.↗