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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the role of Zr doping in Ni-rich layered cathodes for lithium-ion batteries

We report the realization of high performance Ni-rich layered cathodes remains a challenge because of the multiple degradation factors that concurrently operate during battery cycling. In particular, depletion of oxygen charge and consequent lattice oxygen instability at deep charge state accelerate the subsequent chemomechanical degradation mechanisms. Among the proposed methodologies, doping has proven to be effective in enhancing the cathode cycle life by stabilizing the layered structure. Herein, we achieved the electrochemically stabilized Ni-rich LiNi 0.92 Co 0.04 Mn 0.04 O 2 through Zr doping, resulting in a 15% increase of the capacity retention after 100 cycles. In-depth investigations are conducted to unveil the effects of Zr doping on the layered cathode, and in particular, the critical role of Zr doping on the lattice oxygen stability is systematically studied. By combining state-of-the-art magnetometer characterization, X-ray analysis, and first-principles calculation, we reveal that Zr doping positively contributes the to lattice oxygen stability by alleviating the oxygen charge loss at deep charge, thereby improving the cathode electrochemical reversibility. Our findings provide an insight into the Zr doping mechanism and help to design the Ni-rich layered oxides for future applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Allosteric regulation of thioesterase superfamily member 1 by lipid sensor domain binding fatty acids and lysophosphatidylcholine

Nonshivering thermogenesis occurs in brown adipose tissue to generate heat in response to cold ambient temperatures. Thioesterase superfamily member 1 (Them1) is transcriptionally up-regulated in brown adipose tissue upon exposure to the cold and suppresses thermogenesis in order to conserve energy reserves. It hydrolyzes long-chain fatty acyl-CoAs that are derived from lipid droplets, preventing their use as fuel for thermogenesis. In addition to its enzymatic domains, Them1 contains a C-terminal StAR-related lipid transfer (START) domain with unknown ligand or function. By complementary biophysical approaches, we show that the START domain binds to long-chain fatty acids, products of Them1’s enzymatic reaction, as well as lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC), lipids shown to activate thermogenesis in brown adipocytes. Certain fatty acids stabilize the START domain and allosterically enhance Them1 catalysis of acyl-CoA, whereas 18:1 LPC destabilizes and inhibits activity, which we verify in cell culture. Additionally, we demonstrate that the START domain functions to localize Them1 near lipid droplets. Overall, these findings define the role of the START domain as a lipid sensor that allosterically regulates Them1 activity and spatially localizes it in proximity to the lipid droplet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Highly Durable, Surface Modified SOFCs Running on Hydrocarbon Fuels at 600 °C

Fuel flexibility is a unique feature of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), the instability of Ni-based cermet anodes in hydrocarbon fuels impede the advancement of low-temperature solid oxide fuel cells (LT-SOFCs). Here we demonstrate highly stable LT-SOFCs prepared by catalytically modifying the surface of a conductive ceramic oxide, SrFe 0.2 Co 0.4 Mo 0.4 O 3 (SFCM), using Ni-GDC nanoparticles (<100 nm). The nano-sized Ni-GDC electrocatalysts, resulting from careful optimization of Ni-to-GDC ratio, and subsequent low-temperature calcination process, enhance the fuel oxidation kinetics and stability of SFCM anode significantly. An optimized Ni-to-GDC ratio of 1:10 on SFCM-supported SOFC delivered peak power density of 0.75, 0.65 and 0.36 W cm -2 at 650 °C, 600 °C and 550 °C, respectively, in humidified H2 and 0.62, 0.39 and 0.22 W cm -2 at 650 °C, 600 °C and 550 °C, respectively, in CH 4 /H 2 gas mixtures, nearly 4× higher than GDC as electrocatalyst. Notably, for the same Ni-to-GDC ratio, a stable cell voltage of 0.82 V is maintained over 200 h of operations (under current) at 600 °C in CH 4 /H 2 gas mixtures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Highly Loaded Sulfur Cathode, Coated Separator and Gel Electrolyte for High Rate Li-Sulfur Batteries

As one of DOE Battery 500 Seedling projects, Cornell University and EIC Labs investigated and developed i) highly loaded sulfur cathodes (> 3 mg/cm 2 ), ii) hybrid separators, and iii) gel ceramic electrolytes (GCE) to mitigate the low rate capability, shuttling effect and limited cycle life in high performance Li-Sulfur batteries. Scalable nanomanufacturing processes such as air-controlled electrospray (ACES) and gas-assisted electrospinning (GAES) have been utilized to develop directly deposited electrodes and polymer/ceramic hybrid separators. First, in the development of highly loaded cathodes, alternating layers of sulfur impregnated mesoporous carbon and graphene were fabricated via ACES and the resulting layered cathodes and coated separators exhibit higher capacity and capacity retention (about 1,000 mAh/g capacity with less than 0.02% fade/cycles) than single layer cathode or cathode prepared by conventional slurry cast. Alternating layer approach via ACES has been applied to high loading systems (3 - 5 mg S/cm 2 ), demonstrating the potential to increase sulfur utilization and capacity retention. We have also incorporated iron oxides (Fe 3 O 4 ) into S/mesoporous carbon/graphene cathodes to enhance sulfur utilization and mitigation of polysulfide shuttling. and the effect of Fe 3 O 4 in mesoporous carbon and Gr is highly pronounced at high C rates of 1C and 2C cycling performance. To further improve the cathodes at high rates, graphene nanoribbons (GNR) which can promote ion transport were incorporated in the cathode, resulting in 550 mAh/g at 5C/5C rates. Hybrid Li-ion/Li-S cathodes has also been explored to better engage unreacted polysulfides during charge/discharge. S/LFP hybrid cathodes offer higher sulfur utilization and enhanced rate capability, as well as higher areal loading. This study suggests inclusion of iron phosphide (Fe2P) which can chemically interact with polysulfides can further enhance sulfur utilization and mitigation of soluble polysulfides at high rates. Secondly, in the development of hybrid separators, we first employed graphene coating on the commercial polyolefin separators, which exhibits higher capability, better capacity retention and enhanced rate capability. To improve the rate capability with enhanced safety features such as thermal stability and nonflammability, we developed polymer/ceramic hybrids based on thermally stable polyimide (PI) and room temperature curable ceramic precursors such as organopolysilazane (OPSZ) or polysilsesquioxanes (PSSQ), which exhibit no shrinkages up to 300 ºC and non-flammability. To improve mechanical properties and electrochemical stability, polybenzimidazole (PBI) and alumina have been incorporated in polymer/ceramic hybrid separator, replacing PI and OPSZ/PSSQ, respectively. Finally, the gel ceramic electrolyte (GCE) based on ceramic cross linkers have been applied to make Li-S cells even safer and also to mitigate the polysulfide shuttling further. The resulting gel ceramic electrolyte offers improved capacity retention and rate capability, and also effectively mitigates polysulfide shuttling which was also confirmed by modeling. Inclusion of high ion conducting additives into GCE together with polymer/ceramic hybrid separators exhibit the higher ionic conductivity than liquid electrolyte with commercial polyolefin separator. We demonstrated that the developed highly loaded sulfur cathodes, polymer/ceramic hybrid separators and gel ceramic electrolyte can effectively mitigate the low rate capability, shuttling effect and limited cycle life in high performance Li-Sulfur batteries with improved safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase-Field Modeling of Materials Interfaces and Nanostructures

Nanostructured materials offer unique properties for a wide range of energy applications. Among various known processing methods, liquid metal dealloying (LMD)—the selective dissolution of a base alloy element into a metallic melt—has emerged as a powerful technique to produce a new class of nano-/meso-scale open porous and bicontinuous composite structures with ultra-high interfacial area. LMD has recently been complemented by the advent of vapor phase dealloying (VPD), a novel technique that exploits the selective evaporation of one element from a parent alloy containing elements with very different vapor pressures, thereby enabling to fabricate open nanoporous structures of various elements from less-noble metals to inorganic elements regardless of their chemical activity without requiring high LMD temperatures and chemical etching. Together LMD and VPD have greatly expanded the scope of dealloying techniques, limited by traditional electrochemical means to noble metals, and boosted the design of new functional and structural materials that combine a wide variety of elements. Topologically-connected open porous structures with ultra-high surface area allow mass transport within the structure while preserving structural integrity, enabling them to serve as catalysts, fuel cells, supercapacitors, or high-capacity battery materials. Bicontinuous composite structures in turn can display high strength and high ductility or superior radiation-damage resistance due to the ultra-high interface area between interpenetrating solid phases. This research program makes use of state-of-the-art computational methods to understand at a basic level the self-organizing dealloying process with main focus on dealloying kinetics and interfacial pattern formation at the dealloying front controlling initial structure size, topology, and phase compositions. Phase-field simulation studies of LMD focus on solid solutions, line compounds, and intermetallic systems that can form ternary composites by nucleation and growth of a new phase. Studies of VPD employ phase-field modeling and a hybrid method combining a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model of evaporation and surface diffusion with molecular dynamics for vapor-phase transport inside nanopores. Simulations explore mechanisms of interface- and diffusion-controlled dealloying kinetics, both observed in VPD but not fundamentally understood. In addition, our newly developed multi-physics phase-field approach of large-volume-change phase transformations is being used to model novel 3D anode geometries based on dealloyed nanoporous structures including novel sandwiched graphene/Si/silica for highrate Li ion battery. Those studies are aimed at elucidating geometric design principles that improve mechanical stability. We expect this research to enhance the capability to tailor nano-/mesoscale structures for a wide range of energy-related materials applications and to yield further advances in computational methodologies that benefit a broad materials research community.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

New High-Entropy Perovskite Oxides with Increased Reducibility and Stability for Thermochemical Hydrogen Generation

This project aims to design, synthesize, and test a transformative class of High-Entropy Perovskite Oxides (HEPOs) as redox oxides to enable thermochemical hydrogen generation with improved stability, kinetics, and efficiency. These developed HEPOs are expected to demonstrate improved kinetics with oxygen surface exchange coefficient ( k > 7.5×10 -4 cm/s) in Budget Period (BP) 1, retain its structural stability in a broad range of oxygen non-stoichiometry (Δδ > 0.15) at a low operating reduction temperature of T red < 1400°C in BP 2, and deliver a H 2 yield of over 400 µmol per gram of oxide and high stability with less than 20% degradation after at least 50 cycles in BP 3. This project is feasible due to the unique thermodynamic properties (simultaneously increased reducibility and phase stability) and kinetic characters (stability against particle coarsening and potentially enhanced oxygen transport and surface reaction kinetics) of such HEPOs, and it is enabled by a unique active learning computational design approach. Computational studies have been conducted to investigate the oxygen vacancy formation in complex perovskite systems. * Accurate prediction of V O .. concentration with disordered A-site cations in Fe-based high-entropy perovskite oxides * Combined MC/DFT computation elucidates the mechanism of Co preference on the redox due to the strain introduced by local distortion. In this project, we explored a large number (~150) of perovskite compositions, which are listed in Tables 2 – 4). * All perovskite specimens have been synthesized through a high-throughput high-energy ball milling process, followed by the conventional sintering process. * XRD, SEM/EDS and TGA were performed to confirm the crystal structure, phase homogeneity and oxygen non-stoichiometry for compositionally complex perovskite oxides (CCPOs). * 110 compositions show single-phase from XRD * Unusual aliovalent doping effects in medium-entropy perovskite compositions. * V-shape relation between Δδ vs. x (La 1-x Sr x )(Mn 1/3 Fe 1/3 Ti 1/3 )O 3 * The highest reported hydrogen production for the CCPOs made in this project ( T re = 1350 ºC 30 min, T Ox = 1100 ºC 30 min) * B-site mixing (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 )(Mn 0.2 Fe 0.2 Co 0.4 Al 0.2 )O 3 : 89.97 ± 2.73 mmol H2 /mol oxide (395 ± 10 μmol/g oxide ) (i) No phase transformation during reactions when Co molar ratio is less than 61% (ii) Balance between intrinsic kinetics (oxygen surface exchange) and thermodynamics (oxygen non-stoichiometry) (iii) Preference of Co identified by in-situ XPS * A-site mixing (La 1/6 Pr 1/6 Nd 1/6 Gd 1/6 Ba 1/6 Sr1/6)MnO 3 : 98.48 mmol H2 /mol oxid e (~415 μmol/g oxide )

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Concrete Thermal Energy Storage Enabling Flexible Operation without Coal Plant Cycling

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.” The pilot plant built as a result of this project demonstrated the feasibility and performance of a concrete thermal energy storage (CTES) system integrated with a supercritical coal power plant. The 10 MWh electrical (>25 MWh thermal) CTES unit, developed by Storworks Power, was designed to enable flexible operation of coal plants without cycling damage. The project's key technical achievements showcase a significant advancement in energy storage technology. A modular CTES system using 42 “Bolderblocs” units was successfully designed and constructed at Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston Unit 5, with each block containing embedded stainless-steel coils in specialized, cost-effective high-temperature concrete. The system interfaced seamlessly with the plant's 3500 psig (241 barg), 1000°F (538°C) supercritical steam, demonstrating operational flexibility. Over 86 full cycles, the CTES exhibited rapid charging and discharging capabilities, effectively mimicking steam turbine feed conditions and handling varying load profiles and storage durations. Performance validation confirmed the system's ability to consistently meet design target steam conditions of 75 bar-a and ~400°C for nominal baseline discharge. The concrete material withstood repeated thermal cycling without degradation, validating earlier lab-scale tests. Integration of balance of plant components, including a condensate management system with storage tank and air-cooled condenser, minimized plant interfaces and water consumption. A robust control scheme ensured safe, automated operation across various scenarios. Key learnings from the project were invaluable: 1. Initial concrete drying and commissioning procedures were refined for future deployments, enhancing efficiency in subsequent installations. 2. System flexibility exceeded expectations, with rapid response to changing conditions. 3. Design improvements were identified including optimized insulation and piping that will enhance overall system efficiency in future deployments 4. Full cycle thermal roundtrip efficiencies exceeded 88%. While the roundtrip electrical efficiency was somewhat limited by known challenges using input steam, such constraints may be mitigated by swapping steam for hot air as thermal input. 5. A summary of key performance parameters for the pilot test and predicted performance of a full scale commercial system with specified improvements determined from the pilot are shown in Section 8. The project faced challenges, including COVID-19 delays and host plant availability constraints. However, these were overcome through adaptive planning and execution. The successful management of these obstacles demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of the project team and the robustness of the CTES technology. This successful pilot demonstrates the potential for CTES to enhance coal plant flexibility, supporting grid stability as renewable penetration increases. The validated design and operational data provide a solid foundation for scaling up to utility-scale implementations, potentially transforming how thermal plants operate in evolving energy landscapes. The system's ability to rapidly respond to changing grid conditions while maintaining high efficiency makes it a promising solution for balancing intermittent renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the project highlighted the potential for even greater efficiencies in future iterations. The use of air as an input medium could potentially eliminate the limitations observed with steam input, opening new possibilities for energy storage applications beyond coal plant integration. In conclusion, this pilot project not only achieved its primary goals but also uncovered additional benefits and potential applications of the CTES technology. It represents a significant step forward in addressing the challenges of grid stability and flexibility in an increasingly renewable-driven energy landscape.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dust semi-direct effects: low-level cloud response to free-tropospheric dust-induced longwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean

Aerosol semi-direct effect is the adjustment of the radiative budget due to the cloud response to radiation absorption. Although dust accounts for about a third of aerosols' shortwave absorption, our understanding of its semi-direct effect often relies on traditional shortwave-focused mechanisms previously established for biomass-burning aerosols, and implications of dust longwave absorption on clouds have yet to be explored. Here, we assess the low-level cloud cover (LLCC) response to changes in properties and characteristics of the free-tropospheric dust layer over the North Atlantic Ocean (May–August, 2007–2017). We find that, consistent with previous studies, LLCC typically responds positively (increases in clouds) to an overlying dust layer. However, this response weakens with increasing dust optical depth (DOD), dust geometric thickness (DGT), and dust-layer base height (DBH). Specifically, we find that the LLCC response weakens by 4.3 ± 1.04 % and 1.6 ± 0.65 %, respectively, for a one-standard-deviation increase in DOD and DGT, and a smaller response to DBH (0.19 ± 0.45 %). We also find that the weakened LLCC response is primarily due to enhanced dust-induced longwave-dominated cloud-top warming, which counteracts the mean cloud-top cooling by as much as 19 % (mean of 9 %). Sensitivity analysis further indicates that the variability in dust properties, influenced by dust size distribution and refractive index, dominates the changes in dust-induced cloud-top warming, rather than variabilities in cloud properties or thermodynamic profiles. Our result adds to the traditional understanding of LLCC enhancement through shortwave-driven atmospheric stability, often associated with aerosol semi-direct effects, and highlights the role of dust-induced cloud-top longwave warming in dust semi-direct effects.

Pandey, Satyendra K. [Univ. of California, Merced,↗
NASA NTRS1980

Leading-edge 'Vortex Flaps' for enhanced subsonic aerodynamics of slender wings

The 'Vortex Flap' is a novel concept aimed at reducing the lift-dependent drag due to leading-edge flow separation on highly swept, slender wings at high angles of attack. The suction effect of coiled vortices generated via controlled separation over leading-edge flap surfaces is utilized to produce an aerodynamic thrust component. This principle was verified through wind-tunnel experiments on 74-deg and 60-deg delta wings and a supersonic-cruise slender wing aircraft configuration. Adaptation of the vortex-flap for augmentation of roll-control on the 74-deg delta at high angles of attack also was demonstrated. Selected results are presented in this paper to indicate the potential of the vortex flap concept to enhance the low-speed performance, stability and control of slender wing aircraft.

Rao, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Effects of cobalt in nickel-base superalloys

The role of cobalt in a representative wrought nickel-base superalloy was determined. The results show cobalt affecting the solubility of elements in the gamma matrix, resulting in enhanced gamma' volume fraction, in the stabilization of MC-type carbides, and in the stabilization of sigma phase. In the particular alloy studied, these microstructural and microchemistry changes are insufficient in extent to impact on tensile strength, yield strength, and in the ductilities. Depending on the heat treatment, creep and stress rupture resistance can be cobalt sensitive. In the coarse grain, fully solutioned and aged condition, all of the alloy's 17% cobalt can be replaced by nickel without deleteriously affecting this resistance. In the fine grain, partially solutioned and aged condition, this resistance is deleteriously affected only when one-half or more of the initial cobalt content is removed. The structure and property results are discussed with respect to existing theories and with respect to other recent and earlier findings on the impact of cobalt, if any, on the performance of nickel-base superalloys.

Tien, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analytical sensor redundancy assessment

The rationale and mechanization of sensor fault tolerance based on analytical redundancy principles are described. The concept involves the substitution of software procedures, such as an observer algorithm, to supplant additional hardware components. The observer synthesizes values of sensor states in lieu of their direct measurement. Such information can then be used, for example, to determine which of two disagreeing sensors is more correct, thus enhancing sensor fault survivability. Here a stability augmentation system is used as an example application, with required modifications being made to a quadruplex digital flight control system. The impact on software structure and the resultant revalidation effort are illustrated as well. Also, the use of an observer algorithm for wind gust filtering of the angle-of-attack sensor signal is presented.

Mulcare, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hybrid propulsion based on fluid-controlled solid gas generators

The use of fuel-rich solid (gas generator-type) propellants for hybrid propulsion affords some design and utilization efficiency advantages. Both forward and aft liquid injection control concepts are evaluated from the operational standpoints of ballistics, throttling, stability and extinguishment. Steady-state and non-steady ballistics analyses are employed for this evaluation. Stability of solid motor operation is enhanced by fluid injection with adequate injector pressure drop. Efficient throttling and reliable extinguishment are attained through a combination of solid propellant combustion tailoring, grain design, control valves and sensors. Initial results from a laboratory-scale slab combustor, combining a gas generator propellant with gaseous oxygen injection, are also presented.

Cohen, Norman S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fluid Physics Under a Stochastic Acceleration Field

The research summarized in this report has involved a combined theoretical and computational study of fluid flow that results from the random acceleration environment present onboard space orbiters, also known as g-jitter. We have focused on a statistical description of the observed g-jitter, on the flows that such an acceleration field can induce in a number of experimental configurations of interest, and on extending previously developed methodology to boundary layer flows. Narrow band noise has been shown to describe many of the features of acceleration data collected during space missions. The scale of baroclinically induced flows when the driving acceleration is random is not given by the Rayleigh number. Spatially uniform g-jitter induces additional hydrodynamic forces among suspended particles in incompressible fluids. Stochastic modulation of the control parameter shifts the location of the onset of an oscillatory instability. Random vibration of solid boundaries leads to separation of boundary layers. Steady streaming ahead of a modulated solid-melt interface enhances solute transport, and modifies the stability boundaries of a planar front.

Vinals, Jorge↗
NASA NTRS2001

Model of Wave Driven Flow Oscillation for Solar Cycle

At low latitudes in the Earth's atmosphere, the observed zonal flow velocities are dominated by the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations with periods of 6 months and 20 to 32 months respectively. These terrestrial oscillations, the SAO and QBO respectively, are driven by wave-mean flow interactions due to upward propagating planetary-scale waves (periods of days) and small-scale gravity waves (periods of hours). We are proposing (see also Mayr et al., GRL, 2001) that such a mechanism may drive long period oscillations (reversing flows) in stellar and planetary interiors, and we apply it to the Sun. The reversing flows would occur below the convective envelope where waves can propagate. We apply a simplified, one dimensional, analytical flow model that incorporates a gravity wave parameterization due to Hines (1997). Based on this analysis, our estimates show that relatively small wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can produce zonal flow amplitudes of 20 m/s, which should be sufficient to generate the observed variations in the magnetic field. To produce the 22-year period of oscillation, a low buoyancy frequency must be chosen, and this places the proposed flow in a region that is close to (and below) the base of the convective envelope. Enhanced turbulence associated with this low stability should help to generate the dynamo currents. With larger stability at deeper levels in the solar interior, the model can readily produce also oscillations with much longer periods. To provide an understanding of the fluid dynamics involved, we present numerical results from a 2D model for the terrestrial atmosphere that exemplify the non-linear nature of the wave interaction for which a mechanical analog is the escapement mechanism of the clock.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Asymmetric Supercapacitor for Long-Duration Power Storage

A document discusses a project in which a series of novel hybrid positive electrode materials was developed and tested in asymmetric capacitors with carbon negative electrodes. The electrochemical performance of the hybrid capacitors was characterized by cyclic voltammetry and a DC charge/discharge test. The hybrid capacitor exhibited ideal capacitor behavior with an extended operating voltage of 1.6 V in aqueous electrolyte, and energy density higher than activated carbon-based supercapacitors. Nanostructured MnO2 is a promising material for electrochemical capacitors (ECS) because of its low cost, environmentally friendly nature, and reasonably high specific capacitance. The charge capacity of the capacitors can be further improved by increasing the specific surface area of the MnO2 electrode material. The power density and space radiation stability of the capacitors can be enhanced by coating the MnO2 nanoparticles with conducting polymers. The conducting polymer coating also helps in radiation-hardening the ECS.

Rangan, Krishnaswamy K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗